Joe:「我十分認同Keynes的看法,環境變了,看法自然要變,以前的美債殖利率,跟現在的美債殖利率,天差地遠,如果美債能產出的債息也非常接近零利率,美元基礎利率維持零利率水準,那麼無法產出利息的黃金,在通貨膨脹的環境,其實未必比較差,對於長線投資人來說,我不認為美債是需要的投資組合」
S&P500下周可望創下1986年來表現最佳的8月,本月已漲6.8%。若周一能守住如此漲幅,將創下34年來最輝煌的8月漲勢,Allianz首席經濟顧問Mohamed El-Erian表示,美股8月漲勢反映「充沛而(央行)可預測的流動性,注入市場更多資金,投資人目前只在乎流動性,美國企業獲利前景也好轉,S&P500成份股企業第2季每股獲利衰減1/3,但優於分析師預期,高盛在內的分析師已紛紛調高今年企業的獲利預測。
S&P500中市值最大的蘋果,本月一口氣漲了18%,是本月助攻最大功臣。蘋果、微軟、亞馬遜、Alphabet、臉書如今市值超過7兆美元,占S&P500市值比率,由疫情前不到20%增為近25%,五大科技股如此出色表現,所反映的是疫情爆發之下使經濟更偏重科技的結果。不過,部分投資人轉向押注價值型股票,看好這類表現落後的股票可能補漲。若美國經濟加大復甦力道,市場重心可能由大型科技股轉向這類含能源、銀行、工業類相對便宜的價值型股票。
在聯準會(Fed)主席(Jerome Powell)宣布放寬通膨目標超過2%,以抵消長期通膨。Fed之前的通膨目標是長期平均達到2%。這項政策變化意味著Fed可能將利率長期維持偏低水平,New Street Advisors創始人Delano Saporu表示,Fed對貨幣市場的支持可望讓投資人擁抱黃金,貨幣供應量仍在增加。避風港投資人正在尋找另外一種釋放價值的方法。由於利率偏低,其中一些投資人會轉向黃金來讓資金發揮最大效益,就歷史而言,偏低的利率和疲軟的美元有助推升以美元計價的黃金價格。
Saporu說:「我認為市場正在等待的是最低限度能與黃金資產掛鉤的動量交易。」
Laffer Tengler Investments投資長Nancy Tengler認為,在這種環境下,投資人將繼續青睞黃金,像是實質負利率、政府債務激增,加上目前唯一的避險手段是買進蘋果、微軟和臉書股票。因此,我的確認為情勢並沒有改變,但是我更喜歡以不同方式發揮黃金投資效益,黃金的吸引力仍然存在。這無法透過指標來評估,因此我們對採礦業更感興趣,如果已經擁有,最好堅持下去。如果想買進,前幾周的拉回已證明買點已至。現在可能是可以小幅進場之時。
股神」Buffett本周將年滿90歲,Berkshire Hathaway過去55年來在他掌舵下茁壯成龐大企業集團,投資人雖樂見Buffett繼續領導公司,但也對「Buffett時代」的落幕開始有心理準備,Berkshire備受華爾街理財顧問青睞,因為「讓客戶能投資美國經濟各行各業,就像一支資產多元的共同基金一樣,且持股成本低」,Berkshire股價2019年表現落後美股大盤約20%,今年仍落後。但最近買回庫藏股—第2季買回價值51億美元自家股票,比2019全年總額還多—令投資人士氣大振,根據10-Q報表,Berkshire買回股票估計金額超過20億美元,重量級持股蘋果漲勢凌厲,目前Berkshire持有的蘋果股權約值1,200億美元,幾乎相當於Berkshire市值的25%。
全球最大對沖基金橋水(Bridgewater)創辦人、演算法股神Ray Dalio曾說「市場沒有任何東西是確定的」,他擁抱非債券資產,股神Buffett則是買進金礦股,從1975年創立至2020年初,Dalio的橋水創造585億美元淨獲利,「我們為客戶賺的錢比任何現有的對沖基金還要多」,Dalio曾如此自豪宣布。
然而疫情卻讓此戰績黯然失色。橋水旗下有兩大基金,一是「Pure Alpha」,這主要押寶總體經濟預測,總體策略型對沖基金今年上半年平均報酬率正 1.4%,Pure Alpha卻是-13.5%,過去5年獲利幾乎全數回吐。橋水另一主力「All Weather」基金,投資股、債等資產,第一季虧損7%。
績效不佳導致投資人離場,橋水管理的資產由2月底1,630億美元降至4月底1,380億美元,縮水逾15%,橋水已裁掉數十名員工,「為橋水工作逾15年的員工也在視訊會議上被解僱」,市場以成敗論英雄,Dalio這次績效不佳,要歸因於他「股債背離」策略失靈。
Dalio首創「風險平價」(risk-parity)投資組合,其概念是「將各種資產的風險程度維持相等。」此時投資組合的「總」風險可以達到最小──這是經濟學「邊際相等原則」的運用,因此橋水一方面保持高股票配比,同時又借錢去買安全的長期債券,以公債來平衡股票的高風險,如此確保各種狀況下能將總風險降到最低,這正是「全天候」之名的由來,橋水的投資組合將波動幅度控制在10%至12%間,但「風險平價」能奏效,條件之一是各資產相關性不變。具體來說,Dalio的策略是建立在「股債背離」上。這個條件在金融海嘯時成立,他也因此發大財:2008年S&P500下跌近40%,Dalio總體策略基金卻交出8.7%正報酬率,這套策略也吸引人們仿效,2020年3月數據,市場模仿Dalio「風險平價」策略的基金,規模最高達4千億美元。
但今年3月疫情爆發,投資者幾乎把手上所有資產全部拋售,股、債同步大跌,「股債背離」變「股債同步」,Dalio績效也跟著失色。仿效這套策略的基金操盤者Michael Mendelson說,「什麼都跌,『風險平價』也跟著跌」,《經濟學人》形容Dalio:「再成功的經理人也有失足之時。」展望未來,Dalio策略的考驗將越來越嚴峻。
在央行不斷放水下,公債殖利率低迷。Dalio自己也預期,疫情期間政府大舉印鈔,將導致通貨膨脹,公債實質報酬率將被進一步壓縮,這意味著它越來越不足以抵銷股票的高風險,可貴的是,市場雖然和風險平價唱反調,Dalio的反應,卻是認錯,並修正策略,橋水在今年7月報告表示,「用黃金與抗通膨債券,取代傳統債券來平衡股票風險」,今年第二季Dalio花4億美元買進黃金,無非是因應股債背離可能失靈下的路線修正。
除了Dalio,另一修正路線者,還有股神Buffett。已經九旬高齡的他,向來看不起黃金。他曾說:「股票是會生蛋的鵝,黃金不但不生蛋,還吃掉儲存費和保管費當飼料。」黃金也向來被排除在股神投資組合之外,然而這位抗「金」老將,今年第二季卻斥資逾5億美元買進全球最大金礦股「Barrick Gold」,讓過去聽慣Buffett唱衰黃金的人一陣錯愕。財經網站CNBC就稱Buffett此舉「反常(unusual)」,有些輿論為Buffett辯護,稱他買金礦股而非買黃金,不算違背信念。但這家金礦公司市值逾500億美元,最值錢的就是它在全球有十幾處礦藏,今年以來該公司股價已漲逾50%,正要拜金價大漲之賜。
如果說Buffett買進該股,卻不看好黃金,是說不通的。經濟學的啟示是:不要看人怎麼說,要看他怎麼做。股神買進這家公司,就是以實際行為說明他對黃金的看法,為何Buffett從「抗金」變「拜金」?
主要是他手上現金逾 1,300 億美元,在聯準會狂印鈔、美元指數看跌下,現金將持續縮水,股市又已高處不勝寒。手握巨資的他苦無投資機會。他在今年寫給股東的信就坦承:「合適的購併機會已十分稀少。」
各種資產價值,是相對比較而來。在正常年代,股票有公司獲利及股息支撐,在Buffett眼裡相對於黃金更有價值。但2020年是個反常年代,從疫情肆虐到央行放水,股市居高思危、債券殖利率趨於零,通膨山雨欲來,兩害相權取其輕下,黃金就成為Buffett「無法拒絕的提議,從Dalio修正,到Buffett拜金,反映的是這些投資大師「勇於認錯」的生存哲學。當投資理念與市場走勢相左,有些人或許會堅持己見,靜待市場修正到與我同行。但他們卻選擇修正自己理念,未因面子就拒絕低頭。
經濟學家John Maynard Keynes曾被質疑看法變來變去,他回答:「環境變了,我的看法自然要變。」這話對投資者或許更重要。市場沒有天天過年的,若Dalio和Buffett死守過去理念,早在反覆無常的市場裡滅頂了。他們能縱橫市場數十載,正因為不被教條束縛,在大環境改變時低頭修正,才能存活至今,市況未來如何,連大師也無法預見。但他們勇於認錯、修正做法,卻值得人們學習。
https://www.worldjournal.com/7121536/article-%e5%8f%b2%e5%9d%a6%e6%99%ae500%e6%8c%87%e6%95%b8%e9%82%81%e5%90%911986%e5%b9%b4%e6%9c%80%e4%bd%b3%e6%bc%b2%e5%8b%a2-%e7%a7%91%e6%8a%80%e8%82%a1%e5%bc%b7%e5%88%b0%e4%bb%a4%e4%ba%ba%e8%86%bd%e5%af%92/?ref=%E8%B2%A1%E7%B6%93%E6%96%B0%E8%81%9E%E7%B8%BD%E8%A6%BD
https://www.worldjournal.com/7120479/article-fed%e8%aa%bf%e6%95%b4%e9%80%9a%e8%86%a8%e6%94%bf%e7%ad%96-%e9%bb%83%e9%87%91%e5%88%a9%e5%a4%9a/?ref=%E8%B2%A1%E7%B6%93_%E7%BE%8E%E5%9C%8B%E8%B2%A1%E7%B6%93
https://www.worldjournal.com/7119550/article-%e8%82%a1%e7%a5%9e90%e6%ad%b2%e4%ba%86%ef%bc%81%e6%b3%a2%e5%85%8b%e5%a4%8f%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e4%ba%ba%e9%96%8b%e5%a7%8b%e6%8a%bc%e6%b3%a8%e5%be%8c%e5%b7%b4%e8%8f%b2%e7%89%b9%e6%99%82%e4%bb%a3/?ref=%E4%BB%8A%E6%97%A5%E8%B2%A1%E7%B6%93%E4%BA%8B
https://finance.technews.tw/2020/08/30/ray-dalio-warren-edward-buffett-gold/?fbclid=IwAR0FToEB6iEJUfTGKgKkjjqg1nueWwS-duH47lThDmrlGDQ__y_fq8P2rTM
同時也有26部Youtube影片,追蹤數超過40萬的網紅我要做富翁,也在其Youtube影片中提到,不論電視劇還是電影之中,投行都是五光十色,臥虎藏龍的英雄地。現實生活中又是甚麼光景?擁有 19 年操盤經驗,曾在美林、摩根史丹尼工作的 Chris Weston,會為大家分享他在投行的往事。另外,一個普通投資者如何應用 #海龜心態 去不斷提升自己? 今集訪問 Jackie 會和 Chris 一同和大...
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alpha investments 在 McKinsey Taiwan Facebook 的精選貼文
Today McKinsey's Private Equity Practice in Greater China published a new report: "In search of alpha: Updating the playbook for private equity in China."
China is the third largest private equity market in the world: in 2019, private equity and venture capital funds deployed $66 billion of their funds in China, compared to $71 billion in the United Kingdom and $471 billion in the United States.
In this video, Ivo Naumann, Head of McKinsey's Private Equity Practice in Greater China, shares his views on how to create market-beating returns--'alpha'--with 3 of China's leading private equity dealmakers: KC Kung, Founder of Nexus Point; Jean Salata, Founder of Baring Private Equity Asia; and Frank Su, Head of PE Asia for CPP Investments.
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alpha investments 在 McKinsey Taiwan Facebook 的精選貼文
Today McKinsey's Private Equity Practice in Greater China published a new report: "In search of alpha: Updating the playbook for private equity in China."
China is the third largest private equity market in the world: in 2019, private equity and venture capital funds deployed $66 billion of their funds in China, compared to $71 billion in the United Kingdom and $471 billion in the United States.
In this video, Ivo Naumann, Head of McKinsey's Private Equity Practice in Greater China, shares his views on how to create market-beating returns--'alpha'--with 3 of China's leading private equity dealmakers: KC Kung, Founder of Nexus Point; Jean Salata, Founder of Baring Private Equity Asia; and Frank Su, Head of PE Asia for CPP Investments.
You can read the report and download a free PDF on our website here:
https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/private-equity-and-principal-investors/our-insights/in-search-of-alpha-updating-the-playbook-for-private-equity-in-china?cid=soc-app
alpha investments 在 我要做富翁 Youtube 的最佳貼文
不論電視劇還是電影之中,投行都是五光十色,臥虎藏龍的英雄地。現實生活中又是甚麼光景?擁有 19 年操盤經驗,曾在美林、摩根史丹尼工作的 Chris Weston,會為大家分享他在投行的往事。另外,一個普通投資者如何應用 #海龜心態 去不斷提升自己? 今集訪問 Jackie 會和 Chris 一同和大家分享。
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alpha investments 在 Dan Lok Youtube 的精選貼文
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Check out these Top Trending Playlist:
1.) How to Sell High Ticket Products & Services: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLEmTTOfet46PlgDZSSo-gxM8ahZ9RtNQE
2.) The Art of High Ticket Sales - https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLEmTTOfet46NufVkPfYhpUJAD1OBoQEEd
3.) Millionaire Mindset - https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLEmTTOfet46O591glMGzRMoHaIJB-bQiq
Dan Lok, a.k.a. The King of High-Ticket Sales is one of the highest-paid and most respected consultants in the luxury and “high-ticket” space.
Dan is the creator of High-Ticket Millions Methodology™, the world's most advanced system for getting high-end clients and commanding high fees with no resistance.
Dan works exclusively with coaches, consultants, thought leaders and other service professionals who want a more sustainable, leveraged lifestyle and business through High-Ticket programs and Equity Income.
Dan is one of the rare keynote speakers and business consultants that actually owns a portfolio of highly profitable business ventures.
Not only he is a two times TEDx opening speaker, he's also an international best-selling author of over 12 books and the host of Shoulders of Titans show.
Dan's availability is extremely limited. As such, he's very selective and he is expensive (although it will be FAR less expensive than staying where you are).
Many of his clients are seeing a positive return on their investments in days, not months.
But if you think your business might benefit from one-on-one interaction with Dan, visit http://danlok.com
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Blog: http://www.danlok.com/blog/
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This video is about Unboxing Christian Louboutin
https://youtu.be/IcyQ1MEtCz0
https://youtu.be/IcyQ1MEtCz0
![post-title](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/IcyQ1MEtCz0/hqdefault.jpg)