[祝君早安]王維基最開心吧。但,買股票會唔會畀人鬧?
TLDR:1137今日有冇得升?小小吧,一個消息點炒兩次?同場加映Michael Sandel式兩千字討論買疫情受惠股係咪人血饅頭
1. 大家當然會講跳老舞群組,以及啲年紀分佈,同埋君臨天下。呢啲交畀友版 新田飛地講啦 (不過佢呢排好似好忙)。本人呢,都係關心 王維基隻HKTV Mall 1137多啲。
2. 忽然醒起日本311地震時,本人都係叫訓身買落去。當時都畀中學師奶質疑我冷血。我不知道呢個係讚定彈,是但。反正最後互噴一輪口水,都係誰也說服不了誰。而當然可以話「嘩死咁多人你仲掛住呢啲」,不過,首先我(當時)嘅工作就係提供意見提供分析,你放工寫返幾萬字悼念,兩者並無矛盾。二來,再諗下,市場點都係有人買,否則就唔係跌10% 跌20%,係跌到冇成交。咁難道買嗰啲又冷血?好多都係日本人本身吧。當然再誇張啲嘅,可以講到你買落去先係支持日本人,又好似啱喎。
3. 講到尾,我覺得係WFC的。再睇另一個情況,美國911,當時我都仲在英國讀書。但你可以睇返,美股大跌後,媒體又好,投行又好,都係叫買。並不存在咩人血饅頭,唔好用得咁濫。
4. 我諗個關鍵係,你唔係「bet on other’s lives」嘛。掉轉頭,賣保險買保險嘅,都知有insurable interest,你不能幫個陌生人買人壽,佢死咗你有錢分。除咗係防止你去搵人斬死佢外,亦因為「拎人地條命嚟賭」,本質上就好多人不能接受。Michael Sandel在《Justice》之中有講(點會少得佢呢),仲有講Death Pool—例如我開個盤去買啲名人(成龍?江澤民?Morgan Freeman?)邊個死先。似乎唔會令你謀害佢,但本質上都係有啲問題。
5. 但,what about 有啲公司,幫自己嘅員工買保險(美國有的)?你死咗,公司有錢分。會唔會令佢疏忽啲?可能唔會,但,你係員工,會唔會唔多自在?
6. What about 所謂嘅prediction markets?政治期貨,林鄭幾時落台固然有得賭,但曾幾何時,連恐怖襲擊都有得賭,仲要係睇死幾多人派彩,就大有問題了
7. 咁以上種種涉及人命,爭議應該冇咁多,絶大多數人都覺得唔應該拎嚟做注碼。正如之前貼過個網,Election betting odds(https://bityl.co/4YO0),有得賭侵侵會唔唔會做晒成個任期。做唔晒嘅,whatever reason,都派彩。咁除咗自己辭職外,當然仲有猝死或其他意外。但唯獨係唔賠行刺,相信都係類似原因。
8. 但,如果唔涉及人命呢?只係在他人嘅mishap或痛苦身上獲利,有冇問題?似乎係冇的。
9. 首先,人命是人命,但痛苦就好難去量度。如果在他人嘅痛苦身上獲利有問題,咁即係,唔使打牌,唔使賭波,甚至唔使踢波了—你入波人地好傷心,可能人地啲球迷跳樓喎。但應該冇乜人覺得,我要對你嘅不幸負責。
10. 如果你講金融市場(留意我特登唔用「投資」),唔少遊戲,根本係 zero sum(但股票唔係!呢個真係常見謬誤)。你炒期貨嘅,你贏錢就有人輸錢架啦。
11. 但留意返,股票唔係呢回事,係positive sum game所以同賭錢或炒期指唔同。你3蚊買1137,渣到上12蚊,係冇人有損失的。當然我聽過有人話,冇買股票嘅會眼紅,生活水準會不如你 — 個龍門搬到咁濶嘅,就真係唔掂,即係我去食餐米芝蓮都會有人唔開心咁咯。
12. 界線,永遠都係唔多清。又睇下另一個例子,唔少人都有睇The Big Shot套戲,網友梗係覺得好睇,因為個個都係口水put,日日以為爆煲嘛,眾人皆醉我獨醒喎,全世界仆街得自己睇啱,幾咁開心。但故事主人翁真金白銀買落去,唔係上網出post。
13. 但留意嘅係,主人翁最後卒之等到爆煲,十分開心,跳老舞yeah.賺錢其次,證明自己啱先緊要。但呀廢老畢彼特制止佢地,叫佢地Don't fucking dance(https://ytube.io/3BYc)。點解?因為佢地贏錢,代表美國仆街,大把人流離失所要訓街,妻離子散。
14. 呢班人明顯係bet on other’s mishap.唔覺當年有乜人話有問題喎。退一萬步,個撚個都話買支爆 買聯匯爆煲 當 Kyle Bass 係偶像 係呀 美國加息呀 香港樓市崩潰呀 你班供樓嘅燒炭啦。又如何?好似冇人話不道德喎。
15. 返返去買保險個例,我諗其中一個好大嘅關鍵,就係你有冇份「引起」或者「加速」人地嘅不幸同痛苦。冇嘅,似乎冇乜問題。有嘅,就比較有問題。(*)
16. 例如講過CDS,Credit default Swap,買國家或公司爆煲,佢爆煲你有錢賠,都幾有爭議。本質上就同保險差不多,你都冇insurable interest。當然公司唔係人命。不過問題係,你買落去,有機會加速咗個過程喎。個CDS spared大升,人人覺得個國家或間嘢唔掂,融資成本更加,最後就self fulfilling.呢個亦係好多國家有時禁沽空嘅理據,你不停質低個價,兼且好可能去散播謠言,間公司就冇事都變有事。同你去周圍唱話銀行唔掂去擠提差不多。
17. 講返,311又好,911又好。你冇令到呢件事發生嘛,甚至冇加速呢件事發生。所以你事後去叫人買,我覺得係絶冇問題的。
18. 不過都加返句,但凡涉及人命嘅,標準都係高好多。例如之前嘅例子,買總統下台唔包遇刺,因為真係怕有啲友為咗贏錢去殺人(國定殺戳日?)。你不能幫個陌生人買保險,原因亦一樣。但Death Pool呢?我去買 成龍/江澤民 釘蓋,唔會加速咗有人去隊冧佢下話?但一樣被視為不道德
19. 以上種種講嘅係人命,但如果去到疫情,又好似唔係同一回事。唔少公司嘅股價同生意都大升,你總不人話人地發死人財,甚至你無限上綱嘅,藥廠由頭到尾都係做呢啲生意架啦,「殯儀館都係」「你唔病醫生邊有生意做」。咁你去買Zoom 買Netflix,又係咪人血饅頭?似乎唔係
20. 講咗咁多,都失晒焦。但我都係想講,喂,1137呀!第四波疫情,今日有冇得大升?為咗避免畀人批判,同埋都真係自己反省下,我諗咗以上嘅嘢。
21. 其實之前寫過好多,好多,好多次。再重覆一次。每次啲確診數字爆上去呢,1137就勁升的。你甚至唔使睇政府記者會(再講多次,股票一定炒將來,所以 fuck that 股市同實體經濟脫節)。朝早某啲傳媒,總會早早爆確診數字
22. 咁,今日隻1137有冇得大升?我就覺得有啲保留。因為,「今次係星期日出嘅數字」,「可能今日(星期一)跌返呢」。況且都係的,市場都有抗藥性,上星期五先升完十幾巴仙(圖中下半),今日又係咪照升多次?同樣道理,你見第一次輝瑞話有疫苗時,道指升1600點。到一星期後Moderna再講,反應已經細好多。
23. 哲學啲講,「你不能跨過同一條河兩次」。但又同樣地,「一個消息」點炒兩次?星期五個數字已經咁,咁去到星期日爆得更多,係咪完全意外?係咪「新資訊」?記住股票只反映「新資訊」。
(*)不過話說回頭,了解「人血饅頭」典故嘅,都知道群眾都冇份害死人,對不?所以魯迅係批評佢地(亦即係中國人as a whole)嘅愚眛,似乎唔係批評佢地係賤格。
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