The mighty Chinese juggernaut has been humbled this week, apparently by a species-hopping bat virus. While Chinese authorities struggle to control the epidemic and restart their economy, a world that has grown accustomed to contemplating China’s inexorable rise was reminded that nothing, not even Beijing’s power, can be taken for granted.
We do not know how dangerous the new coronavirus will be. There are signs that Chinese authorities are still trying to conceal the true scale of the problem, but at this point the virus appears to be more contagious but considerably less deadly than the pathogens behind diseases such as Ebola or SARS—though some experts say SARS and coronavirus are about equally contagious.
China’s initial response to the crisis was less than impressive. The Wuhan government was secretive and self-serving; national authorities responded vigorously but, it currently appears, ineffectively. China’s cities and factories are shutting down; the virus continues to spread. We can hope that authorities succeed in containing the epidemic and treating its victims, but the performance to date has shaken confidence in the Chinese Communist Party at home and abroad. Complaints in Beijing about the U.S. refusing entry to noncitizens who recently spent time in China cannot hide the reality that the decisions that allowed the epidemic to spread as far and as fast as it did were all made in Wuhan and Beijing.
The likeliest economic consequence of the coronavirus epidemic, forecasters expect, will be a short and sharp fall in Chinese economic growth rates during the first quarter, recovering as the disease fades. The most important longer-term outcome would appear to be a strengthening of a trend for global companies to “de-Sinicize” their supply chains. Add the continuing public health worries to the threat of new trade wars, and supply-chain diversification begins to look prudent.
Events like the coronavirus epidemic, and its predecessors—such as SARS, Ebola and MERS—test our systems and force us to think about the unthinkable. If there were a disease as deadly as Ebola and as fast-spreading as coronavirus, how should the U.S. respond? What national and international systems need to be in place to minimize the chance of catastrophe on this scale?
Epidemics also lead us to think about geopolitical and economic hypotheticals. We have seen financial markets shudder and commodity prices fall in the face of what hopefully will be a short-lived disturbance in China’s economic growth. What would happen if—perhaps in response to an epidemic, but more likely following a massive financial collapse—China’s economy were to suffer a long period of even slower growth? What would be the impact of such developments on China’s political stability, on its attitude toward the rest of the world, and to the global balance of power?
China’s financial markets are probably more dangerous in the long run than China’s wildlife markets. Given the accumulated costs of decades of state-driven lending, massive malfeasance by local officials in cahoots with local banks, a towering property bubble, and vast industrial overcapacity, China is as ripe as a country can be for a massive economic correction. Even a small initial shock could lead to a massive bonfire of the vanities as all the false values, inflated expectations and misallocated assets implode. If that comes, it is far from clear that China’s regulators and decision makers have the technical skills or the political authority to minimize the damage—especially since that would involve enormous losses to the wealth of the politically connected.
We cannot know when or even if a catastrophe of this scale will take place, but students of geopolitics and international affairs—not to mention business leaders and investors—need to bear in mind that China’s power, impressive as it is, remains brittle. A deadlier virus or a financial-market contagion could transform China’s economic and political outlook at any time.
Many now fear the coronavirus will become a global pandemic. The consequences of a Chinese economic meltdown would travel with the same sweeping inexorability. Commodity prices around the world would slump, supply chains would break down, and few financial institutions anywhere could escape the knock-on consequences. Recovery in China and elsewhere could be slow, and the social and political effects could be dramatic.
If Beijing’s geopolitical footprint shrank as a result, the global consequences might also be surprising. Some would expect a return of unipolarity if the only possible great-power rival to the U.S. were to withdraw from the game. Yet in the world of American politics, isolation rather than engagement might surge to the fore. If the China challenge fades, many Americans are likely to assume that the U.S. can safely reduce its global commitments.
So far, the 21st century has been an age of black swans. From 9/11 to President Trump’s election and Brexit, low-probability, high-impact events have reshaped the world order. That age isn’t over, and of the black swans still to arrive, the coronavirus epidemic is unlikely to be the last to materialize in China.
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brexit economy impact 在 Dr Mohd Daud Bakar - Shariah Minds - Minda Syariah Facebook 的最佳解答
Brexit.....Shifting Sands
Next Friday, the UK needs to decide on their own destination to be in Europe or not; and if they (legislators) decide to exit from EU, what kind of exit that they are comfortable with. The challenge lies in the fact that they cant decide uniletarally. EU Parliment must be consulted (using a very diplomatic word). In reality, they have to get the Continent to agree to their proposal of exit mechanism.
I had great pleasure attending the briefing on Brexit and its impact on UK, EU and US. The briefing was conducted by the Chief Economist of one of the biggest banks in the world hearquarted in London. Her data and analysis are superb.
Some of the insights that I can conclude from this analytical briefing:
a. The issue of foriegn immigaration has become one of the most accute problems nowadays. Brexit is just the outcome of this hard reality. UK is not alone. Looking into the the current political map of EU, there are many other countries which are run by the populist government which includes Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Hungry, etc.
b. The Brexit will not only hurt UK, but also a few EU countries which have big exposure to UK (export market).
c.At the times of uncertainty, the market tends to price in the uncertainty element of material changes. This will also hurt the market.
d. The position of London which has been known as the services centre for many centuries when it loses its passporting advantage after Brexit. Which city is the next candidate?
e. The contagious effect of Brexit meaning which country is the most probable candidate to follow the step of UK. All indications are pointing towards Italy.
f. A new curency market and tough fight of USD vs. GBP vs. Euro (not only GBP will be implicated but Euro too)
g. The most alarming signal is the rise of unilatarian vis-a-vis bilateral and community form of the world. It is easy and populist to call for exclusiveness but it is hard to believe in inclusiveness and sharing economy.
While we are not sure what would happen to UK, EU and the world after next Friday, the May goverment and all the British members of the Parliament are having sleepless night.
MDB
brexit economy impact 在 Lee Hsien Loong Facebook 的最讚貼文
Q3: HOW DO WE ENSURE GOOD POLITICS FOR SINGAPORE?
PM Lee: I have described some of our strategies to ensure that we progress together and to keep our place in the world. But for all these plans to work, Singapore must have good politics. If our political system malfunctions; if we fail to produce good leaders; if we cannot work together, and are divided among ourselves; then all our best laid plans will come to naught.
The Brexit referendum was a vivid reminder of the importance of good politics. The vote for the UK to leave the EU is already affecting the UK economy. But the bigger impact of the referendum was to deepen fault lines in British society. Why did it happen? Voters lost faith in their leaders and the whole political class. Large segments of the population felt that they were not benefitting from the country’s progress.
The same thing can happen here. Can Singapore be different? Yes, provided we have politics that unite the people and uphold our multi-racial society. Our leaders must be attuned to people’s aspirations and respond to their concerns, and our political system must be sound.
#ndrsg