法國觀點:《Taïwan, le prochain repli stratégique de l'Occident ?》
臺灣,西方的下一個戰略撤退?
美國大西洋報刊登China’s ‘Very Tricky Situation’一文之後,法國大西洋報訪問了法國學者的看法。原文翻譯如下:
(文中受訪學者是Barthélémy Courmont是里爾天主教大學的講師,也是IRIS的研究主任,負責亞太部門。)
❓Atlantico: 美國《大西洋報》強調了臺灣在美國和中國的地緣政治角逐中的重要性。讓這個島嶼如此具有戰略意義的原因是什麼?
🟢Barthélemy Courmont : 台灣的重要性並非最近的事,只是受到重新評估。從1950年代起,在朝鮮戰爭的邊緣地帶,臺灣被美國視為防堵共產主義在東亞擴張的堡壘。主要是艾森豪政府中的共和黨政治家,不惜一切代價保衛臺灣以抵禦中國大陸的壓力。這種由兩國之間的協議所確認的戰略重要性,一直持續到冷戰結束,甚至持續到美國承認中國之後。因此,1979年的《臺灣關係法》擴展了兩國的戰略夥伴關係。美蘇兩極對抗結束後,人們對臺灣的興趣發生了變化。台灣在1980年代建立和鞏固了民主制度,臺北政府化身對抗極權政權的民主制度捍衛者,與此同時,臺灣也成為國際經濟中的一個重要角色。另一方面,中國則以天安門事件驟然澆熄了民主化的希望,兩個中國(les deux Chine)的經濟同樣快速起飛(臺灣在這方面先於中國大陸),但採取了相反的政治軌道,造持兩者之間差距越來越深。
在過去的20年裡,中國對國力的宣揚,加上美國逐漸從亞洲撤出,導致人們擔心美國會在亞洲失去所有的影響力。因此,盟國們動員組成了 "反中國陣線"( front anti-chinois),結合對民主的肯定、加強戰略對話並警惕與中國崛起有關的危機。因此,華盛頓不斷重申其與日本和韓國的關係,美國這兩個國家的軍事影響在冷戰結束30年後仍然非常強大。沒有得到外交承認的臺灣,在與中國發生安全危機的情況下,仍然受到華盛頓的保護,至少在其公開的意圖中是如此。鑒於北京和華盛頓之間的競爭日益加劇,臺灣的 "心結"(noeud,借用美國政治學家Richard Bush的說法)因此越來越緊。雖然把臺灣描述為「世界上最危險的地方」似乎略嫌誇張,正如《經濟學人》去年春天的表現,但無可爭議的是,這個擁有2300萬居民的島嶼,其戰略重要性與今天美國和中國之間的權力爭奪密切相關。這裡要提醒的是,中國將台灣視為叛亂省份,並自1949年分離後要求恢復領土。
❓雖然美國已經匆匆從阿富汗撤出,但西方會如此輕易地失去其在臺灣的影響力嗎?這將產生什麼影響?
🟢這不太可能,但同時也應該謹慎行事。為什麼不太可能,因為臺灣的民主政府和島上的絕大多數人(écrasante majorité)將中國視為戰略對手,甚至是對其主權的潛在威脅。在某種程度上,中國是臺灣唯一的敵人,而臺灣是中國唯一的敵人。面對這種威脅,考慮到過去二十年來軍事權力平衡已經改變,北京目前占優勢(別忘了直到2000年代中期,臺灣的軍事能力還能威懾中國),臺北必須依靠能夠提供援助的戰略夥伴。因此,與美國的聯繫是不可或缺的,與日本或歐洲國家之間的合作也是如此,還有東南亞國家。華盛頓的戰略影響在臺灣仍然非常有存在感。
同時,美國這種戰略支持的可信度如何,以及最重要的,臺灣人如何看待這種支持?一個經常被忽視的插曲可以說明狀況。2005年,中國通過了「反分裂法」(loi anti-secession),旨在勸阻陳水扁總統當時主張的臺灣獨立宣言。美國重申其對臺北的戰略支持作為回應,但明確指出,這種支持不是自動的(automatique),在臺北「挑釁」的情況下不適用。換句話說,華盛頓保留干預或撤退的權利,這取決於對具體事件的評估。如果中國對臺灣進行軍事攻擊--順帶一提,這種可能性必須讓我們參考博弈理論(la théorie des jeux)-- ,美國將在該確切時刻判斷介入的程度。而如果在美國看來,是臺灣挑釁北京,那麼美國的承諾很有可能減縮成態度上的宣示。臺灣並不會等到阿富汗的潰敗才意識到戰略對話和軍事承諾之間的區別。
❓從阿富汗撤軍是否反而會讓美國更加專注於與中國在印太地區的決戰?
🟢首先,應該知道,從阿富汗 "撤軍 "是美國在該地區外交政策的失敗,而並非只是部隊移動…。二十年來,中國一直是美國領袖,包括民主黨和共和黨人的心頭大患,而且這種心頭大患還在繼續擴大,有可能會忘記地緣政治不僅僅是兩國之間的拉鋸戰。華盛頓並沒有等到從阿富汗撤軍才認定中國是其一貫的對手,無論該認定是對是錯。在這種格局下,美國不斷尋求鞏固其在亞太地區的盟友網絡,利用口號(印度洋-太平洋是最新的口號)和威脅,有時是真的,有時不太是。QUAD(Quadrilateral Security Dialogue四國峰會)包括日本、澳大利亞和印度以及華盛頓,是拜登政府的優先事項。然而,在這個非常異質的集團本身的限制之外,其成員有時有非常不同的利益,華盛頓召集新的戰略夥伴的能力似乎有限。說服首爾加入QUAD的努力至今沒有成功,而對中國崛起的擔憂非常強烈的東南亞,也沒有被這個集團的邏輯所吸引。再加上這裡提到的所有國家,除印度外,都是與中國一起簽署RCEP(Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership 區域全面經濟夥伴協定)的國家......。簡而言之,中美對決在華盛頓被大力宣傳,但在亞太地區,對該地區的國家和公司而言,其現實情況又是如何?
📌訪問原文連結
https://www.atlantico.fr/article/decryptage/taiwan-le-prochain-repli-strategique-de-l-occident-barthelemy-courmont
📌美國大西洋報文章連結
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2021/09/china-taiwan-afghanistan/619950/
同時也有9部Youtube影片,追蹤數超過2,030的網紅數位時代Official,也在其Youtube影片中提到,公司簡介 業安科技期望提供傳統販賣機廠商更有效率的經營模式,並用販賣機聯網,開啟販賣機更多應用機會。例如:2020年實名制口罩販賣機。我們不賣販賣機,而是升級方案,讓傳統販賣機錯過銷售黃金時間成為過去,從今天開始即時掌握關鍵資訊。 Yallvend VUK整合雲端聯網服務,包含:行動支付、庫存系統、...
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economic situation 在 Facebook 的最佳貼文
其實人活在這個世界上怎麼可能會沒有煩惱呢?
這一次的疫情我相信大部分的人都面對同樣的問題!
最近和很多朋友聊天, 很多朋友都向我申訴很擔心很焦慮目前的生活經濟壓力和又 擔心自己和家人被感染的問題, 總之每一方面都好像需要擔心,就算打疫苗也害怕,不打也害怕!他們的情緒大部分都不是太好。
目前的生意和工作的都大受影響,因為大部分的人都是手停口就停。我都能理解那一種心情,就安慰他們要往好哪一方面想要有正面能量。我當然知道我們講的這方很容易,真正要面對著困難的人壓力是真的很大。
但是目前沒有任何醫學和藥物可以醫治這個病毒, 所以造成整個疫情很難控制下來。我們能做的真的很少, 非常無奈 ,煩惱壓力避免不了的。但還是要控制好自己的情緒,有什麼不開心不要憋在心裡, 找奎道去發洩出來,找相信的朋友和家人商量等,盡量往好的方面去想。
有時候想又太多擔心太多也沒有太大的作用,只是會增加自己的煩惱和負能量而已,就見一步走一步跟著環境的情況走吧!
我也不知道也沒有什麼的能力可以幫助到這場疫情!但是如果你相信我,需要找人聊天訴苦,我隨時都在這邊!
大家加油!
Recently I have chatted with many friends, and many of my friends complained to me that they were very worried and anxious about the current economic pressure of life and worried about themselves and their family members being infected.
The current business and work are greatly affected, I can understand the feeling. Of course I know that what we are talking about is very easy, and the pressure on people who really have to face difficulties is hard and not easy.
However, there is currently no medicine that can cure this virus, so it is difficult to control the entire epidemic. Nothing much we can do.Worry and pressure cannot be avoided. But you still have to control your emotions. Don't hold yourself in your heart if you are unhappy. Talk and share with friends and family who believe in, etc., try to think about the good things.
Sometimes thinking too much and worrying too much doesn't have much effect, but it will increase your worries and negative energy. Just follow the situation of the environment step by step!
I don’t know or have any ability to help this epidemic! But if you believe me, you need to find someone to chat and complain, I'm here anytime!
economic situation 在 Focus Taiwan Facebook 的最佳解答
The composite index of monitoring indicators, which reflects the existing economic situation, flashed a "red light," however, indicating strong growth, though it fell in July from a month earlier as the domestic #COVID19 outbreak continued in Taiwan.
https://focustaiwan.tw/business/202108270020
economic situation 在 數位時代Official Youtube 的最佳解答
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The founders have over 10-year experience in the Vending Payment Industry. They have the key technique and also a deep link to the market. The only age-identification system for cigarette vending machines in German was designed by the team. Noticing e-payment and telemetry are big issues in the retailer’s business, they extended the experiences to develop our product VUK. And now our quick and economic solution for traditional vending machines is ready to beat those expensive brand new ones.
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economic situation 在 志祺七七 X 圖文不符 Youtube 的最讚貼文
本集節目由 行政院國家發展委員會 獨家贊助播出
龔主委現身說法,破除台灣經濟發展2大迷思:
1️⃣ 台灣經濟發展一定要仰賴中國市場?
2️⃣ 台灣很小無法影響世界?
#後疫情時代經濟發展
#國發會
國家發展委員會 Facebook粉絲專頁: https://www.facebook.com/ndc.gov.tw/
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各節重點:
00:00 前導
01:34 世界各國2020年的經濟表現
03:05 疫情如何影響經濟?
04:44 疫情還帶來哪些改變?
06:56 主委來了!
07:09 國發會是一個怎麼樣的政府單位?
08:12 疫情期間,台灣經濟、產業有哪些舉措?
11:20 後疫情時代,台灣會有哪些因應的政策呢?
13:37 台灣經濟發展一定要依賴中國市場嗎?
14:23 台灣很小,無法為世界帶來影響或貢獻?
15:27 結尾
【 製作團隊 】
|客戶/專案經理:Pony
|企劃:冰鱸、宇軒
|腳本:冰鱸、宇軒
|編輯:土龍
|剪輯後製:Pookie
|剪輯助理:歆雅、珊珊
|演出:志祺
——
【 本集參考資料 】
→《後疫情時代的關鍵趨勢》:Ivan Krastev 著 /三采文化出版
→《後疫情時代的新經濟》:Daniel Stelter 著 / 商周出版
→《一口氣讀懂經濟指標》 :The Economist 著 /臉譜出版
→【安倍辭職之後】世界第三大經濟體的淪落,日本政府不願面對的巨額負債:https://bit.ly/3dD381T
→Unemployment rate (OECD):https://bit.ly/3v7qYbT
→Gross debt position % of GDP (IMF):https://bit.ly/3n7C8L4
→World Economic Situation And Prospects: February 2021 Briefing, No. 146:https://bit.ly/3grxbvb
→Coronavirus: How the pandemic has changed the world economy:https://bbc.in/3sGW88q
→World Economic Outlook Update:https://bit.ly/3sCwRwb
→武漢一週年:新冠疫情受控背後中國的「制度優勢」與個體代價:https://bbc.in/3xbKYMo
→經濟前景樂觀 主計長籲企業調薪分享經濟果實:https://bit.ly/3sEd7bB
→疫情使各國債務飆增 台灣防疫得當表現穩健:https://bit.ly/3tFQbKd
→台灣2020年失業率3.85%創4年新高 但優於美、加及南韓:https://bit.ly/3gtS9ts
→IMF上調今年全球經濟成長:https://bit.ly/3tETgdF
→OECD上修全球經濟成長預測:https://bit.ly/3vl8jK3
→全球摔跤,台灣起跑!疫後天時地利人和,重返四小龍第一:https://bit.ly/2QLXC3P
→四張圖看懂:台灣GDP「坐4望5」的真相:https://bit.ly/3sCa4R2
→抗疫週年/疫情與貿易戰淬鍊下 台灣成為世界最重要地方:https://bit.ly/3tJjbRy
→台灣2020年經濟表現亞洲居首 外媒:半導體業帶動:https://bit.ly/3asXbCH
→今年經濟成長率估4.64% 大幅上修創7年新高:https://bit.ly/2P6qzai
→經濟和疫情,今晚,你選哪一道?經濟學家找出各國的「最佳防疫政策」:https://bit.ly/3n7CHEG
→新冠全球大流行 聯合國哪裡去了?:https://bit.ly/3atdXBE
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economic situation 在 王炳忠 Youtube 的最讚貼文
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“Are you helping or harming us?” This is my serious question to you American politicians, including those in the Trump administration and in the Congress. As the spokesperson for the New Party, one of Taiwan’s political parties, and also a young man who has lived in Taiwan for more than 32 years since my birth, I should tell you that the answer decides our future without doubt. In other words, the very fact I must confirm is whether you support Taiwan independence instead of the One-China policy or just deploy Taiwan as your pawn to bargain with Beijing. To be honest, as you always take it for granted to sacrifice others for your benefits, it is quite important for us to make sure in advance.
As we all know, the US Congress usually tends to challenge China’s sovereignty over Taiwan because of the impact of the military-industrial complex and the lobbies hired by the Taiwan government. The Taiwan Travel Act and the TAIPEI Act are the late instances. However, without the administration’s implementation, these are only lip service. Thus, the administration’s attitude is crucial indeed. So, let’s see the Department of State. As Secretary Pompeo stated last March, the US is now using every tool in its tool kit to prevent China from isolating Taiwan through diplomatic channels. This year, after shifting blames for its neglect of the pandemic prevention by attacking China and the WHO, the Department of State recently expressed support for Taiwan’s participation in the WHA. The above really triggered my curiosity: The establishment of the US-Taiwan formal diplomatic relations is just the most useful tool, isn’t it? Why does the US not use that? Besides, since Taiwan should become a formal member of the UN before entering the WHO, why does the US not recognize Taiwan as a sovereign state or the ROC government in Taiwan as the only legal government of China instead of the PRC?
The answer to my question seems that your real intention is not to support Taiwan’s real independence but only to trouble Beijing. Just as Pompeo said at a congressional hearing, the Trump administration’s way of viewing the US-Taiwan relations can consider the threat of China’s rise more than the predecessors, which reveals that Taiwan is only a chess piece for Washington to play with Beijing. Furthermore, since the US has no will to have Taiwan as a formal ally, Taiwan is just a pawn you can sacrifice anytime. Consequently, Taiwan must suffer the worsening of cross-strait relations at our own cost while the US just plays Taiwan to bargain with Beijing for your own interests. The outcome is so predictable that Taiwan should go through a depression for its large economic dependence on mainland China which you are unable and unwilling to make up. Besides, we should even consider the most serious situation that a war occurs in the Taiwan Strait. The scenario of Taiwan military is holding on alone within two to three weeks in order to wait for the US military aid. Nevertheless, as the former AIT chairman Richard Bush said, the implied commitment of the US to come to Taiwan’s defense has never be absolute. In other words, we should risk engaging a war with Beijing resulted from your dangerous game, sacrificing our lives for your lies.
As I already told you earlier, the real threat to the US is not China’s rise but the loss of your self-confidence. Moreover, you have weakened the stability across the Taiwan Strait by inciting Taiwan to deny the 1992 consensus and intervening in Taiwan’s campaign last year, which destroys the status quo and your interests indeed. Certainly, as what Secretary Pompeo has told us, “We lied, we cheated, we stole,” how can we bet our future on the US “glory” of lying, cheating, and stealing? In fact, as you once betrayed us in 1978 even though the ROC government in Taiwan and your government was formal alliance then, it is much easier for you today to abandon us when the deal has been done.
In conclusion, as your government declared plainly in the U.S.-PRC Joint Communique (1972), the US had its interests in a peaceful settlement of the Taiwan question by the Chinese themselves. Accordingly, since you are not willing to recognize either Taiwan as an independent state or the ROC as the legal government of China, we have no choice but to deal with the question of reunification with Beijing by the Chinese ourselves. Helping instead of harming us, you could stop intervening in the Taiwan question, otherwise it will only strengthen the risk across the Taiwan Strait and put us in jeopardy. Thank you if you release your hands.
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