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Why are there so many graffiti in Athens??? The answer seems to be that due to the economic crisis, youth unemployment rate is sitting at 50%😵 As Athens is one of the most political cities in Europe, people are using graffiti as a way to express their ideas...
雅典塗鴉真的很多！以下全部都是在我們旅館附近的街景😵 古蹟附近的大樓，火車，車站，車子，只要一走出旅館 （我們住在衛城附近）放眼都是塗鴉。 大部分的解釋都是因為希臘經濟危機， 年輕人失業率是一半以上。 因為 “沒事 + 洩憤” 所以塗鴉比朋友兩年前來的時候多很多😒 晚上走真的有點怕怕的😵 但還好有兩個男人 （但還是爸爸比較厲害啦😜）
[時事英文] 20個希臘債務危機的關鍵片語!
在過去這幾週，想必同學大家應該都已經有聽說希臘的經濟危機了，但似乎大家都把重心放在整件事情的結果，而非是它的起因。那現在就讓我們一起來認識一些關鍵片語，幫助各位同學更清楚地了解此次經濟危機的起因和來龍去脈。
★★★★★★★★
1. run a budget deficit 財政赤字
2. be riddled with corruption 貪腐氾濫成災
In 2009, Greece was running a budget deficit because there its government was riddled with corruption and had poor tax collection enforcement.
2009年，希臘由於政府過於貪腐以及不健全的稅制徵收辦法，導致其財政出現赤字。
★★★★★★★★
4. creative accounting 創造性會計，偽造帳目
5. take on debt 舉債 (就是國家、團體、個人憑藉信譽籌集社會資金所擔負的一種債務。舉債按償還期不同可分為短期借款和長期借款)
To make matters worse, Greece tried to mask its budget deficit for many years with some creative accounting since they had to adhere to European Central Bank regulations about how much debt a country could take on.
更變本加厲的是，希臘想要藉由偽造賬目來隱瞞自己多年來的財政赤字，想讓自己進一步符合歐洲央行的舉債限額規範。
★★★★★★★★
6. ballooning national debt 不斷上揚的國債
The cost of paying back the existing debt and any new debt that the Greek government had to borrow kept rising, a cycle that only increased Greece’s ballooning national debt.
現階段，本身正在償還的欠款，再加上後續必須借入的其他資金，便造成了整體債務金額的增加更顯惡化，這樣的惡性循環也讓希臘的國債持續膨脹。
★★★★★★★★
7. credit rating was downgraded 信貸(信用)等級遭到降級
8. default on its debt 債務違約
9. rounds of austerity measures 財政緊縮措施
Greek’s credit rating was downgraded by the world’s rating agencies amid fears the government would default on its debt. The Greek government announced several rounds of austerity measures and slashed spending.
由於擔心希臘政府可能會拖欠債務，因此，希臘的信貸等級遭到世界信用評核機關降級，而希臘政府也於此同時好幾度發佈財政緊縮措施和削減國家支出。
★★★★★★★★
10. approve tough austerity measures 經核准的強硬緊縮措施
11. stage a strike against 發起對於…的對抗行動
In 2012, the Greek parliament approved a new package of tough austerity measures in order to receive a massive bailout from the European Union. Consequently, Greek trade unions and citizens staged strikes against the government to protest the approval.
2012年，希臘議會通過了新的強制性財政緊縮措施，並同意了歐盟大規模的歐元救助，而希臘市民與貿易聯盟也因而發起了抗議活動。
★★★★★★★★
12. youth unemployment climbed to 60% 青年族失業率攀至60%
13. in a bid to save money 為了節省開銷
In 2013, unemployment rate was approximately 27, with the youth unemployment climbing to almost 60%. Many public programs were suspended without program in a bid to save money.
2013年，希臘的整體失業率大約為27%，而青年失業率也攀至60%，因此，為了節省開銷，有很多公共活動也因而無計畫性地停擺。
★★★★★★★★
14. anti-austerity coalition 反撙節政策的組織
The anti-austerity leftist Syriza coalition wins European election with 26.6% of the vote in 2014. He becomes prime minister after winning parliamentary elections in January of next year.
激進的反撙節左派聯盟Syriza在2014年以26.6%的得票率勝選為執政黨，領導者也在次年一月的國會大選成功當上首相。
★★★★★★★★
15. default on a payment to the International Monetary Fund
未對國際貨幣基金履行繳款義務
16. referendum 公投
17. fall into arrears 到期未付款，欠款欠帳; 拖欠
18. Grexit 希臘退出歐元區
In late June, Greece became the first developed country to default on a payment to the International Monetary Fund, falling into arrears. Greek voters also decisively rejected the terms of a bailout deal offered by international lenders just a week later. Greek’s exit from the euro zone—more commonly known as Grexit-- seemed more and more likely.
在六月底，希臘而成為了全世界第一個對國際貨幣基金組織拖欠繳款的已開發國家。在一個禮拜後，希臘的選民們也毅然決然地拒絕了所有國際債權人的任何紓困方案。看來希臘的債務危機的處理是朝向希臘從歐元區的退出(Greek’s exit)或我們常說的Grexit方向來發展。
★★★★★★★★
19. keep banks afloat 維持銀行的運轉
20. bailout deal 紓困案
Eurozone finance ministers have agreed to provide Greece emergency funding to keep its banks afloat after the Greek parliament passed tough austerity reforms Wednesday evening. Talks on a new bailout deal will begin in the upcoming weeks.
在希臘國會於週三晚上通過了嚴厲的樽節改革之後，歐元區財長已同意給予希臘的緊急資金以維持銀行的運轉。未來幾週也即將開始討論新的紓困方案。
★★★★★★★★
Sources:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-17373216
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33546352
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33403665
http://cn.nytimes.com/world/20150127/c27greece/dual/
http://cn.nytimes.com/business/20150707/c07markets/
http://www.wsj.com/articles/polls-close-in-greek-referendum-1436113280
http://www.businessweekly.com.tw/KBlogArticle.aspx?id=12882
http://www.educationworld.com/a_lesson/explaining-the-greek-economic-crisis-with-students.shtml
Image: http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02220/gre_2220477b.jpg
"If you don't follow the stock market, you are missing some amazing drama."
[SIX REASONS WHY BURSA COMPOSITE INDEX WILL BREAK 2,000 BY END 2015 BY DR. NAZRI KHAN]
I am going to stick my neck out here and making a gutsy speculation that KLCI will break above 2,000 level, two years from now. Yes, seriously as early as December 2015.
While that might sound crazy (KLCI is still struggling with 1800 this week), let me humbly justify with SIX undisputable reasons why Bursa will hit 2,000 magic numbers.
REASON 1 : Subprime Crisis Is Over. Solid USA & European Economies.
The USA economy is in its best performance since the depths of the financial recession in 2008. Bloomberg consensus expect USA to post solid economic growth of more than 3% through 2016 and 6% unemployment rate by end 2014, the best rate in five years. The worst is also over for Europe. Europe especially the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain) had an extremely severe reaction to the 2008 financial panic due to sovereign debt but as last quarter 2013 their economies are no longer shrinking and in fact are making a modest incremental economic growth since 2008. Both the USA and Europe are Malaysia largest trading partner and represents important sources of demand for goods from every other region. Solid economic recovery in the USA and Europe suggest stronger exports, higher corporate earnings and of course higher Bursa price.
REASON 2 : Average KLCI Annual Gains Since 1977 Is 30%
Look and check this out on Bloomberg, KLCI has easily gained 135% since 2008 and a total of 2015% since 1977 (meaning average of 26% per year). So when you start to look at a 26% price gain per year, and you add in Bursa average of 4% dividends, you are talking about a 30% return average every years. 2000 magic numbers will only represent a cheap 5% gain for KLCI per year from here. Now don’t tell me KLCI hitting 2000 psycho level is a big deal.
REASON 3 : Improved External + Cheap Valuation = More Foreign Inflows.
Fundamentally speaking, the remarkable fact is that even after this incredible 2008-2013 run-up the FBMKLCI index is only selling at 15.5 times estimated 2014 earnings. Reasonable price, at least compared to the super glory time in 1990-1994 where KLCI valuation is 40 times! Remember, I haven’t talk about the foreign inflow which now stand at three years low. S&P 500 companies alone are sitting on USD3 trillion in cash equivalents. Assuming 1% of inflow will inject extra RM100bil per year into Bursa equity. And that could be another reason the market will continue to rise.
REASON 4 : Huge Untapped Liquidity. Millions Of Retailers Are Yet To Jump.
Secondly, only 0.4% of Malaysian are currently actively invested in the market (based on 100,000 active retail investors and 28 million Malaysian population as at Dec 2013). Headlines speak to the fact that as the market advanced, more money is moving back into equities. And that is true. And don’t forget, as at end last year, we have RM326 billion funds invested in unit trust which will plough back into Bursa Malaysia. So given this untapped liquidity, I can easily bet there appears to be an imminent euphoria here in the Malaysia market especially when KLCI broke above 1900 this year.
REASON 5 : Current Bull Is Still Young
2014 should be the sixth year of the bull run which started since 2009. Well, since 1977, the average duration of a Malaysian bull market is 9.8 years, and the average return is 275%. We should understand the bull momentum gradually became stronger as the bull market continued year after year, and normally grow exponentially in the last five years. This bull starting in October 2008 has not even matched that average. It is now only 5.5 years old running with a return of 135%. Meaning we have at least another 4.3 years (till July 2019) and further 140% upside to whack
REASON 6 : Retail Traders Are Roaring
Last but not least, I am impressed by looking at the tiger attitude of retail traders especially the younger ones. Out of nowhere, I see thousands of retail investors from colourful background (engineers, teachers, MLM product owners to idle housewives) fully embraced 2013 bull market, ignoring any threat from the hottest 2013 Malaysia general election and chasing stocks like there is no tomorrow. Trading gallery now is full to the brim and training seminar is packed like a world class soccer match. Buying into speculatively unknown and underperforming names such as Tiger, Palette, Nicorp, Ingenco, Winsun, AMedia & Luster. This strong retail trend should signal more good times to come. I just can’t wait for the last bull stage in 2019 where taxi drivers, mamak staller and even house maids to jump and buy Iris, Sumatec and KNM.
I Rest My Case.
xxxxx
Affin Long Term View : Runaway Bull 2015-2016, Euphoria Bull 2017-2018, Buying Climax & Next Crash 2019-2020
Long Term Strategy : Buy Any Local Bluechips Warrants OR Buy MSCI Malaysia ETF Long Term Options (EWM), Hold Five Years
Affin Low Risk Favourites (Watch For 5 Year Warrants If Available) :
TENAGA (Price RM11.85)
TM (Price RM5.55)
SKPETRO (Price RM4.51)
AIRPORTS (Price RM8.11)
BIMB (Price RM4.29)
TAKAFUL (Price RM10.26)
BURSA (Price RM7.79)
POS (Price RM5.55)
QL RESOURCES (Price RM2.98)
BRAHIM (Price RM2.30)
xxxxx
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