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※ 2015.08.12 觀點—Kristian Niemietz ※
希臘悲劇歹戲拖棚背後的兩難

作者 Kristian Niemietz 是倫敦智庫經濟事務研究所（Institute of Economic Affairs）的研究員。本文刊登於七月十七日的《每日電訊報》。

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1991 年，德國總理科爾（Helmut Kohl）的政府開徵了一項「團結稅」，此稅針對個人所得、資本利得、商業利潤開徵一定比例的稅額，目的乃是援助東德。最近，德國曼海姆（Mannheim）的「歐洲經濟研究中心」（Centre for European Economic Research）所長克雷門斯‧福厄斯特（Clemens Fuest）提議，德國仿照過去的做法，開徵 5.5% 到 8% 的團結稅，再用這些新增的收入作為援助希臘的款項，鑑於未來德國還是有需要援助希臘。

福厄斯特的邏輯是很簡單的：給希臘的緊急「貸款」並不是真正的貸款，因為絕大多數的款項，希臘是永遠無法償還的；這些「貸款」當然無法正式被鈎消，但是它可以透過各種會計伎倆縮減規模。所以不管怎麼說，德國的資源都將淨轉移到希臘，而根據福厄斯特的估算，團結稅只要再增加 2.5%，比起目前的政策，（德國）納稅義務人所付出的代價是差不多的，如此一來，稅金不必一再轉再轉，經過高度複雜的轉移機制流到希臘，德國的納稅人可以清楚地知道他們的稅金流向。

當然，會作出這種提案的，只有經濟學者。它很透明，它很誠實，它也比目前使用的方法更加有效率。這就是為什麼這個提案只能是空中樓閣，不可能成為現實的主要原因。相反的，目前這種混沌和稀泥的作法會繼續進行下去。德國聯邦議會已經壓倒性多數，表決通過第三次的希臘紓困案。社會民主黨投下贊成票，綠黨投下贊成票，基督教民主黨除了幾個喃喃抱怨的後座議員以外，也都投下了贊成票。

然而德國民眾顯然反應沒有政治人物熱烈。根據最新的民調，德國人在此議題上呈現五五波：46% 的人支持第三次紓困希臘，49% 的人反對。現在讓我們想像一下假如德國採行了福厄斯特的提案。團結稅當然立刻就成為「希臘稅」。每個月，大家都會在薪水單上看到有多少錢被轉移到希臘，幾元幾分。其殘酷的透明度大概會促使大批德國人成為 "NO" 陣營的人。

過去在西德，團結稅也不是很受歡迎，但也沒有引起很大的不滿。大部份的西德人都接受東德需要金錢補助的事實，就好像絕大多數的倫敦人、英格蘭東南部人知道他們付出了高額的稅金，這些都流向其他窮鄉僻壤的地方一樣。但除非在特殊的情況下（例如某國遭到天災），團結的感覺通常無法自動延伸到其他國家的人民身上。這就是歐元區根本的問題。當轉移的金額超過人們覺得舒服的水準，一定會激發怨恨與憤怒的感覺。

在歐元危機之前，希臘已經是歐洲區域發展基金（European Regional Development Fund）、歐洲社會基金（European Social Fund）、歐洲融合基金（European Cohesion Fund）的長期受惠者。這些錢加起來，似乎是淨援助國的納稅人願意支付的程度（雖然這些錢的流向並不特別透明，所以我們無法完全肯定）。由經濟環境天差地遠的不同國家所組成的貨幣同盟，需要的轉移程度，遠比目前高出許多。

歐元計畫的發起人，希望有了共同的貨幣，歐洲就會培養出大歐洲的認同感：西德人自然而然會想要跟希臘人分享資源、主權，如同他們過去對東德所做的一樣。當然，這種情況並沒有發生，但在德國或其他地方，沒有一位政治人物願意旦白承認這一點。所以他們只能以拖待變，企圖隱瞞政策的真正代價，將選民蒙在鼓裡。所以當德國政治人物企圖在跟希臘的債務談判中表現出強硬的樣子，我們只要聽聽就好。強硬的說詞，往往只是為了安撫國內選民的姿態練習而已。

希臘的危機當然不會在此次的紓困案後獲得解決，即使下一次再紓困也是一樣，因為該國的結構性問題太過龐大：希臘的經濟無法支撐危機發生前的政府收入與分配，那麼再怎麼小修小補都無濟於事。希臘的經濟需要從根本進行大修理，然而只要它認為修理的措施都是外國強行加諸於它的，大修理就不可能發生。

希臘必須自行找出改革的道路。這也代表北歐的政治人物必須停止管希臘的家務事——然而只要北歐的選民不願意拿錢救希臘，北歐的政治人物就會覺得他們不得不管。這就是這齣歹戲拖棚的希臘悲劇背後最根本的兩難局面。只要希臘繼續留在歐元區，這齣戲就會繼續唱下去。

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/…/No-bailout-can-save-Greece-fro…

[時事英文] The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB)

在"阿帕契直升機事件"告一段落的同時，讓我們來多了解一些”AIIB”這個機構吧!

✰✰✰老師的錄音檔✰✰✰
https://soundcloud.com/eric-yang-51/aiib-1

✰✰✰時事詞彙✰✰✰

1. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) 亞洲基礎設施投資銀行
2. multilateral development bank 多邊開發銀行
3. provide finance 提供資金
4. infrastructure project 基礎設施建設
5. regarded by…as a rival for… 對於…來說是…的對手
6. the International Monetary Fund (IMF)
7. the World Bank Group (WBG) 世界銀行集團
8. the Asian Development Bank (ADB) 亞洲開發銀行
9. ...want greater input in global established institutions 想要在全球性的機構有更多的參與
10. be dominated by…interests 受制於…的利益
11. play a greater role 扮演更大的角色
12. economic development 經濟發展
13. economic and political clout 經濟和政治影響力
14. doubling the registered capital 加倍註冊資本
15. founding of the bank 銀行的成立
16. formally recognize 正式認定
17. Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) 備忘錄; 合作瞭解備忘錄
18. allegedly 據傳說
19. founding members 創始成員
20. express doubts about standards of governance of the AIIB 對AIIB管理標準質疑
21. environmental, labor and social safeguards 環境、勞工和社會保障
22. US Treasury Secretary 美國財政部秘書長
23. influence the development of the institution 影響到機構本身的發展
24. soon followed 很快地開始跟進
25. long-standing experience 長期經驗
26. letter of intent 意向書
26. interim secretariat 臨時秘書處

相關詞彙: http://goo.gl/XC6FFf

✰✰✰英文稿全文✰✰✰

The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is an international financial institution proposed by the government of China. The purpose of the multilateral development bank (多邊開發銀行) is to provide finance (提供資金) to infrastructure projects (基礎設施建設) in the Asia region.

AIIB is regarded by some countries as a rival for the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank Group (WBG) and the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

The idea of the AIIB was first mentioned in October 2013.The Chinese government wants greater input in global established institutions (想要在全球性的機構有更多的參與) like the ADB, which it claims are dominated by (受制於) American, European and Japanese interests. China also wants to finance infrastructure projects such as the construction or roads, ports, and railways in Asia and to play a greater role (扮演更大的角色) in the economic development (經濟發展) of the region, increasing its growing economic and political clout (經濟和政治影響力).

In June 2014, China proposed doubling the registered capital (加倍註冊資本) of the AIIB to $100 billion and invited India to participate in the founding of the bank (銀行的成立). On October 24, 2014, a signing ceremony held in Beijing formally recognized (正式認定) the establishment of the bank. Twenty-one countries, including China, India, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines, and Vietnam signed the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). Pressure from the US allegedly (據傳說) kept Australia and South Korea from signing up as founding members (創始成員) despite the two countries expressing interests.

In early March 2015, the United Kingdom had agreed to lend money to the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, becoming the first major Western country to do so. The announcement was criticized by the United States, which expressed doubts about standards of governance of the AIIB (對AIIB管理標準質疑) in regard to whether its loans will carry adequate environmental, labor and social safeguards (環境、勞工和社會保障). However, the UK claimed that the subject had been discussed with the US Treasury Secretary (美國財政部長) for several months preceding the decision (在決定之前). The UK also stated that joining the bank as a founding member will allow Britain to influence the development of the institution (影響到機構本身的發展). Germany, France and Italy soon followed (很快地開始跟進) Britain's decision to join the AIIB, with the Germany Finance Minister stating that Germany’s long-standing experience (長期經驗) with international financial institutions will help the bank gain a high international reputation. In late March, 2015, South Korea announced its plan to join the AIIB, citing its potential in benefiting South Korean companies win deals in infrastructural projects as well expanding South Korea's influence in international banking as a founding member.

As of April, 2015, almost all Asian countries and most major countries outside Asia had joined the AIIB, except the USA, Japan, and Canada.

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時事英文: http://goo.gl/3EnOO6

✰✰✰✰✰✰✰✰✰✰✰✰

Sources:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_Infrastructure_Investment_Bank
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/mar/13/white-house-pointedly-asks-uk-to-use-its-voice-as-part-of-chinese-led-bank
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-32128357
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/04/01/uk-asia-aiib-taiwan-idUKKBN0MS36E20150401
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/58615682-d75f-11e4-93cb-00144feab7de.html
http://thediplomat.com/2015/04/taiwans-rash-decision-to-join-aiib/

Image source: https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/asian_infrastructure_investment_bank_shutterstock_040615.jpg

Tên viết tắt của các Tổ chức Quốc tế bằng tiếng Anh (2)

· WFP - World Food Programme : Chương trình lương thực thế giới

· UNEP - United Nations Environment Programme : Chương trình liên hiệp quốc về môi trường

· UNDP, PNUD – United Nations Development Programme : Chương trình liên hiệp quốc về phát triển

· UNHCR – United Nation High Commissioner for Refugees : Cơ quan cao ủy liên hiệp quốc về người tị nạn

· WFC – World Food Council : Hội đồng lương thực thế giới

· UNCTAD – United Nations Conference on Trade and Development : Hội nghị liên hiệp quốc về thương mại và phát triển

· NUFPA – United Nations Fund for Population Activities : Quỹ hoạt động dân số Liên hiệp quốc

· UNICEF - United Nations Children's Fun : Quỹ nhi đồng Liên hiệp quốc

· UNIDO – United Nations Industrial Development Organisation : Tổ chức Liên hiệp quốc tế về phát triển nông nghiệp

· UNITAR – United Nations Institue for Training and Research : Viện đào tạo và nghiên cứu Liên hiệp quốc

· IAEA – International Atomic Energy Agency : Cơ quan năng lượng nguyên tử quốc tế

· UPU – Universal Postal Union : Liên minh bưu chính thế giới

· ITU – International Tele-communication Union : Liên minh viễn thông thế giới

· WB – World Bank : Ngân hàng thế giới

· IBRD – International Bank for Rconstruction and Development : Ngân hàng thế giới về tái thiết và phát triển

· ILO – Interational Labor Organization : Tổ chức lao động quốc tế

· IDA – International Development Assocciation : Hiệp hội phát triển quốc tế

· IFC – International Finance Corporation : Công ty tài chính quốc tế

· IFAD – International Fund for Agriculture Development : Quỹ quốc tế phát triển nông nghiệp

· IMF – International Monetary Fund : Quỹ tiền tệ quốc tế

· UNESCO – United Nations Educational, Scientific : Tổ chức liên hiệp quốc về giáo dục, khoa học và văn hóa

· FAO – Food and Agriculture Organisation : Tổ chức liên hiệp quốc về lương thực và nông nghiệp

· ICAO – International Civil Aviation Organisation : Tổ chức hàng không dân dụng quốc tế

· WMO – World Meteoro Logical Organization : Tổ chức khí tượng thế giới

· WIPO – World Intellectual Property Organization : Tổ chức thế giới về sở hữu tri thức

· WHO – World Health Organization : Tổ chức y tế thế giới

· ESCAP – United Nations Economic and Social Commision for Asia and Pacific : Ủy ban kinh tế xã hội châu Á và Thái Bình Dương

· ECWA - United Nations Economic Commision for Western Asia : Ủy ban kinh tế Tây Á

· ECLA - United Nations Economic Commision for Africa : Ủy ban kinh tế châu Phi

· ECE - United Nations Economic Commision for Latin America : Ủy ban kinh tế châu Mỹ la tinh

· EDE - United Nations Economic Commision for Europe : Ủy ban kinh tế châu Âu

· O.A.J – Organization of American States : Tổ chức các nước châu Mỹ

· BAD – Asian Development Bank : Ngân hàng phát triển châu Á

· RCTT – Regional Centre for Transfer of Technology : Trung tâm chuyển giao kĩ thuật của khu vực

· TC – Typhoon Committee : Ủy ban bão

· INTERCOSMOS – Intercosmos : Chương trình hợp tác nhiều mặt trong lĩnh vực nghiên cứu vũ trụ

· W.C.C – World Council of Churches : Hội đồng nhà thờ thế giới

· OPEC – Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries : Tổ chức các nước xuất khẩu dầu mỏ

· EEC – European Ecomomic Community : Khối thị trường chung châu Âu

· N.A.T.O – North Atlantic Treaty Organization : Khối Bắc Đại Tây Dương

· O.A.U – Organization of African Unity : Tố chức thống nhất châu Phi

· O.E.C.D – Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development : Tổ chức hợp tác kinh tế và phát triển

· S.W.A.P.O – South West Africa People's Organization : Tổ chức nhân dân Tây Nam Phi

· M.F.N.Status – Most Favored Nation Status : Quy chế nước được ưu đãi nhất

. P.L.O – Palestinian Liberation Organization : Tổ chức giải phóng Palestin

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