關於 european inflation rate ，我們在網路上蒐集到這些相關的討論、資訊與評價

ทำไม มาตรการ QE ของสหรัฐ ไม่ทำให้เกิดเงินเฟ้อ ขั้นรุนแรง /โดย ลงทุนแมน
Quantitative Easing หรือที่เรียกสั้นๆ ว่า QE
คือเครื่องมือหนึ่ง ที่ธนาคารกลาง ใช้ในการกระตุ้นเศรษฐกิจ
โดยการอัดฉีดเงิน เพื่อเพิ่มสภาพคล่องให้ระบบเศรษฐกิจ ในภาวะเศรษฐกิจชะลอตัว
...Continue ReadingWhy U.S. QE measures don't cause severe inflation / by investman
Quantitative Easing aka QE
Is one tool that central banks use to stimulate the economy.
By pumping money to increase liquidity for the economic system in slowing economic progress.

But the result that many people worry about is.
Amount of money will rise in the economic system which will bring inflation.
And may be severe to severe inflation aka ′′ Hyperinflation

We have seen many countries do QE hard.
Will this lead to severe inflation in the future?
Investing man will try to analyse it.
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First, let's understand the meaning of Hyperinflation.

Hyperinflation is a condition where product prices rise quickly.
Makes the country's money value go down dramatically

Why the value of money goes down
As a result, lots and lots of money flowing into the economy.
Compared to the same amount of goods and services in the economic system.
Price increases product prices quickly

An example of past severe Hyperinflation incident.
Such as in Hungary and Venezuela

Hyperinflation in Hungary happened in 1946
During that time, Hungary was heavily damaged by WWI.
Especially various infrastructure systems.

The Hungarian Government has shortage of budgets in economic revival.
So I decided to print a lot of money to repair the city's home and stimulate the economy.
Making money in Hungary's system is increasing tremendously.

As much as the amount of money increases, the domestic products are still the same.
So it makes inflation rise quickly
Hungary average product prices increase to 2 times in 15 hours.
By the moment of Hyperinflation
Hungary inflation rate rises to 150,000 % within one day.

Venezuela part of year 2019
Venezuelan inflation rises to 10,000,000

The cause of this story is similar to the case of Hungary
Well there is excessive economic system injection
Both to stimulate a slowing economy from low petrol prices.
Including to use for government's populist policies

We'll see that all 2 events have one thing in common.
Well there is a huge economic system injection.
Which leads to hyperinflation

Back at present COVID crisis-19
Many countries have measures to stimulate the economy.
With lots of money pumping into the economic system

US Central Bank
Using unlimited amount of QE measures
From the original designated price of about 22 trillion baht per year.

Central Bank of Japan
It's another country that uses unlimited amount of QE measures.
From the original designated, about 24 trillion baht per year.

European Central Bank announces more projects
In acquisition of emergency assets worth over 27 trillion baht.

It will see that many countries are now pumping a lot of money into the system.
And in many countries, I used to do heavy QE before.

For example, the case of the USA.
There has been a lot of money pumping into the economic system in the past 10 years.
Since the 2008 US Real Estate Bubble crisis.

Interesting is that US inflation rates aren't adjusted to much higher like the cases of Hungary and Venezuela.
2010 US average inflation rate equates to 1.6 %
2019 US average inflation rate equates to 1.8 %

Japan is another country where xỳāng h̄nạk measures are taken.
But inflation is still at low near 0 % as well.

Why is the story like this?

This phenomenon is partly because
US and Japan central banks make QE through asset purchases.
Both bonds, shares, loan from commercial banks.
And commercial banks are responsible for re-releasing money into the economy.

But what happens is that commercial banks don't forward the money they get from central banks.
To the business and household sector as everyone thought at first.

The cause is because during economic recession or slowdown.
Household sector tends to save money rather than bring money to spend.
Due to insecure future economic

For example, in USA.
The deposit amount in the COVID-19 pre-birth system is around 416 trillion baht.
But when COVID-19 goes viral, deposits in the system increase to almost 500 trillion baht.
Within just a few months

Meanwhile, a bad economic situation.
Making selling business sector products and services difficult.
Making production and service still very much available.
Business sector may not require a loan to expand business.

Enough demand for products and services doesn't increase higher.
Well, things don't go much higher.
Even with lots of money in the system

Another point is.
Countries with large economies like USA and Japan
Own the world's main currency with high credibility.
Most people still believe and still demand to hold these currency.

In conclusion, if you ask for QE making of big countries today.
Will it lead to severe inflation in the future?
I have to say that this problem can be difficult for big countries like USA and Japan.

But the point is, this plague crisis doesn't know when it ends.
And countries inject money log in
For a country which is economically stable as a big country, it might be careful.
Because those countries may have severe inflation, different from this case..
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References
-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation
-https://nomadcapitalist.com/2014/04/20/top-5-worst-cases-hyperinflation-history/
-https://www.businessinsider.com/hungarys-hyperinflation-story-2014-4
-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_Venezuela
-https://www.thestreet.com/investing/federal-reserve-unveils-unlimited-qe-to-confront-coronavirus
-https://www.schroders.com/en/bm/asset-management/insights/economic-views/bank-of-japan-ramps-up-qe-again-amid-dismal-outlook/
-https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm
-https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/japan/news/inflation/core-consumer-prices-hold-steady-in-june-in-annual-terms
- https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/projections/html/ecb.projections202006_eurosystemstaff~7628a8cf43.en.html#toc3
-https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/2900/inflation/inflation-and-quantitative-easing/
-https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DPSACBW027SBOGTranslated

Day 2: Seminar Dunia Pelaburan Saham sesi terakhir Kuala Lumpur 2014 bersama Dato' Dr Nazri Khan, First Vice President Affin Hwang Capital & President of MATA.

"Trading is For Living"....

[MY FORECAST NEW YEAR 2015]

Alhamdulillah. Looking forward to my first political seminar along with Malaysian respectable politicians on 2015 Economic & Stock Market Outlook.

All friends invited to attend. 27th January, Sunway Resort Hotel.

My humble FORECAST in 2015 :

2015 will see USA Federal Reserve unwind its huge USD3 trillion financial stimulus and start to hike interest rates, first time in eight years.

2015 will see Bank Of Japan and European Central Bank to start pumping in USD1 trillion yen and Euro 1 trillion to boost their flagging economies.

2015 will see Malaysia chairing ASEAN and the launch of Asean Economic Community and ASEAN stock exchange by October 2015.

2015 will see the start of mega bank merger in Malaysia. Expect the biggest Malaysian Bank to be born with more than RM100 billion market cap next year.

2015 will see Malaysia finally implement Good Service Tax at 6% (lowest in ASEAN) after the long planning since 1992, Mahathir Prime Minister and Anwar Ibrahim, Finance Minister era. Malaysia are the third last ASEAN countries to implement GST.

2015 will see more than 10 mega IPO in Bursa Malaysia which includes 1MDB, Malakoff, Weststar, Iskandar Waterfront, Al Medini, Khazanah Theme Park, Ekuinas Ilmu, Sunway Construction, Sime Auto and Ecoworld International.

2014 will be officially Bursa Malaysia fourth WORST year in history, after 2008, 1997 and 1994. Year to date, Bursa has dipped 226 points or 11.8% ever since it
touched the highest record on the 8th July 2014.

2014 will be the first Bursa losing year after five straight profitable years since 2008. Not bad, given that Bursa has gained a whopping 1095 points or 135% since 28th October 2008 bottom.

2014 Bursa worst sectors are plantation and oil gas while the best Bursa sectors are technology and construction. All four sectors should be a good buy next year especially technology stocks if USA solid economy continue.

2015 should see Bursa renew momentum and continue the uptrend driven by the return of foreign inflows. As at today, foreign investors hold 45% of Malaysian Bonds and 23% of Malaysian equities, among the lowest in history.

2015 hottest economic issues will be falling ringgit, falling oil, rising inflation, rising interest rates, rising household debt, illicit money outflow and New Economic Model of Malaysian 11th Economic Plan.

2015 hottest political issues will be 1MDB Berhad, Anwar Sodomy Verdict, Seditious Act, Hudud Row, Pakatan Solidarity, Felda Group, Malaysia Airlines Berhad and UMNO New Political Model. Expect to see the rise of Malaysian political temperature and more confrontation Malay liberals vs Malay extremes.

2015 will see oil even cheaper than water. Within five months, oil price has crashed from USD110 to USD55 per barrel. It now costs RM1 to buy a litre of oil, compare
to water which is RM2 a litre. Ironically, RON 95 and Milo Tarik have not fallen as much.

2015 will see more currencies volatility. Forex traders are set to return. Top Five worst currencies in 2014 are Russian Rouble, Chilean Peso, Argentina Peso, Colombian Peso and Ukraine Hryvnia which have tumbled more than 20%. Ringgit which is already down 12% is yet to join the fray. Russia has shockingly raised its key interest rate to 17% from 10% after the collapse of the rouble currency.

2015 will see the return of Avian Influenze H5. Japanese officials slaughtered 4,000 chickens after confirming the H5 strain of bird flu at a poultry farm in the
southwest of the country. More widespread H5 will push Malaysian healthcare and glove stocks higher.

2015 will see the return of El Nino. Australian Weather Bureau confirmed 70% probabilities of El Nino emerging by February 2015 in the Pacific Ocean. This should be supportive of global aggro commodities including Malaysian Palm Oil.

2015 biggest DANGER to Global Stock Market will be GREECE. Signs suggest Greece may leave European Union if the left radicals, Syriza Party win the Greece general election this month. If this materialize, expect Greece exit to tear off Euro.

My overall take : 2015 will be the Best Stock Picking year for all investors and traders, despite higher Malaysian political temperature and rising interest rate, given the solid USA economy, cheaper Bursa stocks, super attractive risk-reward and huge selling seen over the last six month.

~ Nazri Khan, Affin Hwang Investment Bank.

Why negative rates won't work for the ECB

Negative interest rates used to be a hypothetical conjecture appearing mostly in economics textbooks. They are rarely seen and have not been applied anywhere significantly until recently when the European Central Bank declared that lenders with excess reserves will be punished with a fee.

Mario Draghi, president of the ECB, says the plan is to fend off deflationary pressure by forcing banks to lend, hence increasing the velocity of money.

Unfortunately, the idea is deeply flawed. Negative interest rates will only trigger further leakages of liquidity, therefore further depressing price levels.

When a bank faces negative interest rates for its excess reserves, it will scramble to find borrowers. Nevertheless, no matter how the borrower spends the money, it will end up returning to someone's savings account, creating an excess reserve for another bank.

It is obvious that negative rates cannot eliminate the problem of excess reserves in the banking system.

Will negative interest rates on excess reserves send the velocity of money to great heights, turning a deflationary economy into an inflationary one, or even into hyperinflation? No, it won't. Sadly, there are no willing borrowers except heavily indebted national governments, even if banks want to lend.

Banks will most likely be coerced into buying sovereign bonds, artificially depressing the cost of borrowing for governments.

In 2009, the Swedish Riksbank set a seven-day deposit rate of minus 0.25 percent to discourage fund inflows when there was a capital flight from the euro zone.

Denmark's National Bank did the same in 2012, setting its two-week deposit rate at minus 0.2 percent for the same reason.

Both nations implemented negative rates to discourage an expansion of the monetary base, thus a deflationary measure to avoid inflation.

Negative interest rates cannot be a deflationary and inflationary measure at the same time. Draghi and his friends at the ECB should be well aware of the solid evidence indicating that negative interest rates are deflationary rather than inflationary.

The financial repression will create a leakage from the banking system and it is certainly not a cure for deflation.