Joe:「對美國股市估值的方式很多,股市上漲,對美國整體的民間消費幫助很大,估值過高還是過低,fed的貨幣政策態度是很重要的,在fed態度沒改變以前,美股劇烈修正出現的機率較低,不過美國通貨膨脹持續在給fed緊縮貨幣政策的壓力,通貨膨脹維持高檔,美股短線就相對低迷,尤其是科技股的影響就很明顯。」
如果你信任股神Warren Buffett對股市合理估值的看法,那麼對於現在的美股,應該要戒慎恐懼,Buffett最愛的市場指標,6月1日經升至破紀錄的200%,表明股市估值過高,並可能在未來幾個月暴跌,Buffett Indicator計算美股的總市值(TMC)相對於美國最近一季GDP的百分比,以判斷估值的合理性,Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index達44.3兆美元,而第1季GDP的預測值為22.1兆美元,讓指數突破200%,這一數字遠高於2020年第2季的187%,當時因疫情衝擊,造成代表分母的GDP下降約12%,根據股市的歷史估值估算,Buffett指標達到目前水準,代表美國股市的平均年化回報率為-3.1%(含股息)。
Buffett在2001年《Fortune》雜誌上,大肆宣傳這一估值衡量標準,認為這「可能是衡量任何特定時刻估值水準的最佳單一衡量標準」,將這一指標於網路泡沫階段創下新高時,是後來崩盤「非常強烈的警告信號」。此後,在金融危機爆發前,這一指標也曾飆高,不過,這一種計算方式也有缺陷。例如,它將股票市場的當前價值與上一季的GDP進行比較。而且,美國上市公司並不總是對美國經濟做出貢獻,GDP並不計算海外收入。
投資銀行高盛(GS)報告顯示,低利率、改善的勞動力市場、長期通膨溫和,皆意味著目前的美股估值似乎是合理的,因此投資者無需過於擔心美股會出現大幅下跌,近幾個月來,雖然S&P500企業和市場分析師持續上調每股盈餘(EPS)之獲利預期,但美股基本上仍是橫盤整理,這令美股的估值並未再向上走高,顯示當前的宏觀經濟條件與企業獲利,是能支撐目前的美股估值,S&500估計在2022年3月落在4200點附近,到2023年3月漲至約4500點附近。
而截至5月28日美股S&500是收在4204.11點,已抵達高盛的2022年3月之目標價,意味著若以高盛之預估來看,S&P500下半年的上行空間已經不大,雖然以歷史標準衡量,當前S&P500估值並不低,但預期隨著美國經濟的持續擴張,美股企業未來幾年的獲利能力也將持續強勁,這將持續幫助支撐估值、收斂估值。
https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/4654442
https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/4655189
同時也有1部Youtube影片,追蹤數超過83萬的網紅serpentza,也在其Youtube影片中提到,Beijing (formerly romanised as Peking) is the capital of the People's Republic of China and the world's third most populous city proper. It is also on...
fortune 500 2022 在 Scholarship for Vietnamese students Facebook 的最佳解答
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fortune 500 2022 在 serpentza Youtube 的精選貼文
Beijing (formerly romanised as Peking) is the capital of the People's Republic of China and the world's third most populous city proper. It is also one of the world's most populous capital cities. The city, located in northern China, is governed as a direct-controlled municipality under the national government with 16 urban, suburban, and rural districts. Beijing Municipality is surrounded by Hebei Province with the exception of neighbouring Tianjin Municipality to the southeast; together the three divisions form the Jingjinji metropolitan region and the national capital region of China.
A city combining both modern and traditional architecture, Beijing is an ever-changing megacity rich in history but also truly modern, exemplified in its extraordinary global influence in politics, business & economy, education, history, culture, language, music, sporting, architecture, civilization, fashion, art, entertainment, innovation and technology. Beijing is the second largest Chinese city by urban population after Shanghai and is the nation's political, cultural, and educational centre. It is home to the headquarters of most of China's largest state-owned companies, and is a major hub for the national highway, expressway, railway, and high-speed rail networks. The Beijing Capital International Airport has been the second busiest in the world by passenger traffic since 2010, and, as of 2016, the city's subway network is the busiest and second longest in the world, after Shanghai's subway system.
The city's history dates back three millennia. As the last of the Four Great Ancient Capitals of China, Beijing has been the political centre of the country for much of the past eight centuries. With mountains surrounding the inland city on three sides, in addition to the old inner and outer city walls, Beijing was strategically poised and developed to be the residence of the emperor and thus was the perfect location for the imperial capital. Beijing was the largest city in the world by population for much of the second millennium A.D. The city is renowned for its opulent palaces, temples, parks, gardens, tombs, walls and gates, and its art treasures and universities have made it a centre of culture and art in China. Encyclopædia Britannica notes that "few cities in the world have served for so long as the political headquarters and cultural centre of an area as immense as China." Beijing has seven UNESCO World Heritage Sites – the Forbidden City, Temple of Heaven, Summer Palace, Ming Tombs, Zhoukoudian, as well as parts of the Great Wall and the Grand Canal, all popular locations for tourism. siheyuans, the city's traditional housing style, and hutongs, the narrow alleys between siheyuans, are common in urban Beijing and are also major tourist attractions. The city hosted the 2008 Summer Olympics and was chosen to host the 2022 Winter Olympics, which will make it the first city to ever host both events.
Many of Beijing's 91 universities consistently rank among the best in China, of which Peking University and Tsinghua University are ranked in the top 60 universities in the world. In 2015, 52 companies of the Fortune Global 500 company headquarters were located in Beijing, more than any other city in the world, including state-owned enterprises State Grid, China National Petroleum, and Sinopec Group, ranked 2nd, 3rd, and 4th, respectively. Beijing CBD is quickly becoming the center for Beijing's economic expansion, rapid modernization, and radically changing skyline, with the ongoing or recently completed construction of multiple skyscrapers. Beijing's Zhongguancun area is also known as China's Silicon Valley, China's center of innovation and technology entrepreneurship. According to the 2016 InterNations Expat Insider Survey, Beijing ranked first in Asia in the subcategory "Personal Finance Index," a measure of expats' salaries versus cost of living in the city. Expats live primarily in the east, in urban districts such as Dongcheng and Chaoyang, or in suburban districts such as Shunyi.
Let's take a proper look at Beijing, the Capital city of China...
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