I have recently perused Nicholas Kristof’s NYT piece “China’s Man in Washington, Named Trump”(https://nyti.ms/3h2JXh8). One paragraph in particular caught my attention: “A joke in China suggests that Trump’s Chinese name is Chuan Jianguo, or “Build-the-Country Trump.” That’s because Build-the-Country is a common revolutionary name among Communist patriots, and it’s mockingly suggested that Trump’s misrule of the United States is actually bolstering Xi’s regime.”
Kristoff also avows that since Trump’s ascension to presidency, the American nation became highly polarized. This is reflected in the current administration’s policies on climate change, foreign relations with established U.S. allies, and COVID-19 prevention, all of which are rather ineffective. It also seems like Mr. Trump and his team diverged from the traditional priorities, including promoting free trade, human rights, and other quintessentially American values. As described thoroughly by John Bolton, all these factors contributed to the declining standing of the U.S. in global politics.
What is more, many people fall prey to CCP’s propaganda and its interpretations of Trump’s actions, which only enhances China’s reputation.
But that might not exactly be the case.
The CCP apparently failed to utilize the window of opportunity created by the ineptness of the Trump administration, as China could have grown to the position of a leader by filling in the void left by the U.S.
During the 2016 APEC Ministerial Meeting in Lima, Peru, Xi Jinping and his team actively supported the plans to establish the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and a Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific, or FTAAP. In contrast, the United States withdrew its signature from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in early 2017. Coupled with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the establishment of the Asian Infrastructure and Investment Bank (AIIB), this move bolstered China’s capacity to influence global investments and trade, high-tech mergers and acquisitions, and, overall, expand its geostrategic influence on the entire globe.
At the same time, various propaganda films about great power competition, military industry, and science and technology surged all at once, and gained remarkable following around the world.
All this provided a window of opportunity for the CCP to slowly change its course. Around the same time, the distrust for POTUS among U.S. allies’ reached its apex. According to polls conducted by the Pew Research Center, the distrust for the U.S. president in the U.K. reached 75%, 72% in Japan, 70% in Australia, and stunning 86% in France.
Had the C.C.P,. begun to open up at that time, or at least resumed the governance style of the Hu-Wen administration, it could have reaped the benefits of promoting liberalism where the U.S. failed to deliver. It was the time for Beijing to gradually enhance freedom of speech domestically, pursue sustainable infrastructural projects, gradually reform unfair barriers to trade, transform its S.O.E.s, strengthen protections for private ownership, and vitalize its start-ups and enterprises.
Moreover, were China to cease the genocide in East Turkestan and refrain from cracking down on Hong Kong's semi-autonomy, it would have greatly enhanced its global international image. Additionally, if paired with slow but steady reforms, Beijing’s respect for sovereignty of its peoples would have attracted a large amount of foreign investment, which in turn would have continued to buttress the country’s growth.
It is China prerogative to remain idle.
It might still be possible for Chinese “Dream” to come true.
Yet, a historic window of opportunity is now closed.
Xi assumed the tools of proscribing and stalling, which are completely antithetical to the aforementioned window of opportunity.
Today, China is more authoritarian, less flexible, and fully deprived of horizontal accountability. Its reliance on wolf warrior diplomacy backfired: for example, the Swedish parliament sought to expel the Chinese ambassador to Stockholm. Also, Prague, the capital of Czechia, terminated its sister-city agreement with Shanghai and instead signed a new one with Taipei. Last but not least, we ought not to forget about the recent fiasco in the relations with the United States who ordered the shutdown of China’s consulate in Houston. All of this took its toll on China’s reputation.
Its international standing and inability to replace the U.S. as the major global power are not the only issues China is currently facing.
As it experiences multiple domestic and international shocks, China struggles to combat the COVID-19 pandemic and tame the disastrous floods of Yangtze River. The swarm of locusts of biblical proportions is also crippling Beijing’s institutional capacity and may soon lead to food shortages. In fact, the precarity of food supply further diminishes the level of trust for Chinese authorities.
In 2019, the Pew Research Center conducted a public opinion survey to examine the international views of China. In the U.S., Argentina, the U.K., Canada, Germany, and Ukraine, only about 30% of respondents claim a favorable view of China.
As the COVID-19 pandemic rages in the U.S., as many as 73% of U.S. respondents view China unfavorably.
Recently, the C.C.P. is losing its focus by continuously shifting targets. In fact, I believe there is no need for the C.C.P.to rely on nationalistic appeals, since in this new century values, business relations, and fair competition are all far more important than greater than delusive blood ties.
China lies only 130 kilometers away from us. Of course, we welcome dialogue and seek to avoid misjudgments. But we also distinguish between the C.C.P. and China. While we do welcome dialogue, but we will not be coerced to talk under unjust preconditions or in fear.
The only fair prerequisites are those of reciprocity, mutual respect as well as fairness and openness with respect for the rule of law.
Source: Pew Research Center
最近看到紐約時報中文版的一篇文章
<美國的川普,中國的「川建國」>,其中一小段是這樣的
「在中國,人們戲稱川普的中文名字是川建國。那是因為建國是共產黨愛國者中一個普遍的革命人名。它在諷刺地暗示川普對美國的治理不當實際上是在鞏固習近平的政權。」
裡面也提到,川普在任的幾年,國家更分裂,對於氣候變遷,傳統美國盟友,乃至於疫情處理等都相當拙劣,對於美國傳統的自由貿易、人權等價值也基本上都沒有太大興趣。這些方針,導致美國在世界的評價降低,波頓的新書也多有描述。
除此之外,許多不幸相信中共宣傳,又或者是中共圈養的小粉紅,特別故意愛宣傳川普增強中國的威望。
但這不是真的。
中共完全沒有掌握美國做得不夠好的地方,去增強其在世界的領導力。
在2016年時,秘魯的亞太峰會舉行期間,習近平政權爭取(RCEP)及亞太自由貿易區(FTAAP)談判;對比2017年初,美國剛宣布退出TPP,加上中國到「一帶一路」和亞洲基礎設施投資銀行,中國當時在世界全面發揮投資貿易、高科技併購還有其地緣戰略的影響力。
也是那個時候,各種的大國崛起、大國軍工、大國科技的宣傳影片此起彼落,似乎正準備要在世界舞台發光發熱。
這曾經是中共慢慢轉向的一個機會之窗。彼時(2017)美國盟友對美國總統的不信任度達到歷史新高,根據皮尤研究中心的資訊,英國對於美國總統的不信任度達到75%、日本72% 澳洲70% 法國更高達86%
如果那時中共開始有限度的改革,對內放寬言論自由,或者至少維持在胡溫當時的水中,對外追求有責任的基礎建設,逐步緩慢減低不公平的貿易壁壘,對於國有企業改革,增強私營企業、新創企業的活力。
停止對新疆迫害,不干預香港自治,不僅國際形象會大幅改善,哪怕是緩慢但是穩健的改革,也會讓大量吸引外資,讓中國的活力持續前進。
哪怕是什麼都不做也好
那或許有這麽一點可能性,中國「夢」是可以前行的
但是歷史機緣的大門已經關上。
習、禁、停、放棄了這個機會之窗,徹底的走向相反的方向。
更專制、更沒有彈性,更沒有任何制衡的力量。各種戰狼外交,讓瑞典議員提案驅逐中國大使,捷克布拉格市長與台北簽訂姊妹是,就解散上海與該市關係、被美國關閉領事館、各種讓中國形象低下的事情,中共都沒有少做。
中共不但完全沒有辦法取代美國,在多重國內外的衝擊之下,又是瘟疫,又是超大水患,緊接著蝗害,還有進來的糧食不足問題,正在面臨巨大的瓶頸。
而糧食的命脈,卻恰恰又在對他最不信任,對中共價值最反對的國家聯盟
根據皮尤研究中心:Pew Research Center2019調查各國對中國的喜好度,美國、阿根廷、英國、加拿大、德國、烏克蘭等,對於中國的喜好度都在30%上下
而2020疫情後美國對於中國的不信任度,更高達73%。
最近中共在演習,又要玩轉移目標的手段,對於中共,其實不必再有民族主義的同情,因為新的世紀,價值、商業模式、公平競爭的制度大於血緣幻想。
中國離我們只有130公里的距離,我們當然歡迎對話,避免誤判。但我們同時也區分中共與中國,歡迎對話,但不在前提、條件、恐懼之下對話。
如果真的要有前提,那就是對等、尊重,還有公平公開法治的方式會晤。
資料來源:皮尤研究中心:Pew Research Center
(美國著名的民調機構和智庫機構,https://www.pewresearch.org/)
「free trade area of the asia-pacific」的推薦目錄:
- 關於free trade area of the asia-pacific 在 陳冠廷 Kuan-Ting Chen Facebook 的精選貼文
- 關於free trade area of the asia-pacific 在 國家政策研究基金會 Facebook 的最讚貼文
- 關於free trade area of the asia-pacific 在 洞見國際事務評論-Insight Post Facebook 的最佳解答
- 關於free trade area of the asia-pacific 在 What is the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP)? 的評價
free trade area of the asia-pacific 在 國家政策研究基金會 Facebook 的最讚貼文
今(2015)年亞太經濟合作會議(APEC)第一次資深官員會議(SOM),2月6日於菲律賓馬尼拉舉行。資深官員們為實踐亞太自貿區(Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific, FTAAP)路徑圖倡議,會中組成亞太自貿區(FTAAP)特別工作小組,將針對實踐FTAAP進行研究,預期在2016年年底前提出方案。台灣在此次會議中順利成為FTAAP小組成員,可望為實踐亞太自貿區(FTAAP)盡一份心力。 …
free trade area of the asia-pacific 在 洞見國際事務評論-Insight Post Facebook 的最佳解答
[#即時新聞] APEC部長會議批準進行亞太自貿區可行性研究
在北京召開的為期兩天的會議中,環太平洋地區的貿易部長們在敲定兩項分別關於高科技產品和地區貿易的協議方面進展寥寥,不過會談將在領導人峰會期間繼續進行。
來自亞太經濟合作組織(Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation,簡稱APEC) 21個經濟體的部長上週五整晚及週六早間談判了兩項協議。一項協議關於創建亞太自由貿易區(Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific,簡稱FTAAP),這是東道國中國優先推進的一個問題。另外一項協議關於擴大《信息技術產品協議》(Information Technology Agreement, 簡稱ITA),《信息技術產品協議》涉及取消高科技產品的關稅問題。據談判代表表示, 儘管面臨來自美國和其他APEC成員的壓力,中國一直不願推進。
美國對中國推動FTAAP的努力施加阻力,因為它擔心該協議談判將阻礙另一個貿易協定、即泛太平洋戰略經濟夥伴關係協議(Trans-Pacific Partnership, 簡稱TPP)的推進。上述部長聲明稱,任何FTAAP協議都將建立在目前正進行的地區性談判(指TPP及其他地區貿易協議)基礎之上。
美國國務卿克里(John Kerry)上週六表示,TPP談判是美國必須打贏的一場戰爭。參加TPP談判的12個國家的部長們在上週六下午會晤,試圖縮小分歧,其中包括美國和日本在農業和汽車貿易方面的爭執。TPP國家的領導人定於週一再度就該貿易協議進行討論,不過預計將難以取得突破。但ITA的進展則不同。在過去兩年來,談判人員一直試圖擴展這一在1996年生效的協議,將多部件半導體、醫療設備和多種儀器及零部件覆蓋進去。
此次降稅清單中將增加大約250項產品。貿易專家表示,約30項產品仍在討論中,中國堅持保留這些產品的關稅。中國正力圖發展半導體等高科技行業,認為可以通過關稅來抵御國際競爭。
中美兩國在上週六繼續圍繞ITA展開談判,但在當日會議結束時仍未能達成共識。不過,跟蹤協議進展的人士稱,雙方的談判已接近達成共識,將在領導人峰會上繼續進行討論。原本打算在部長級會議結束後就離開北京的信息技術行業的說客稱,他們將留下來,希望談判取得突破。
轉自華爾街日報
http://online.wsj.com/…/apec-trade-ministers-approve-study-…
free trade area of the asia-pacific 在 What is the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP)? 的推薦與評價
The Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP) is one of Thailand's main agenda as APEC host this year. But what is the FTAAP and why is it ... ... <看更多>