ฝันร้าย ธุรกิจเติมน้ำมันเครื่องบิน ของ BAFS /โดย ลงทุนแมน
ธุรกิจสายการบินทั่วโลก ได้รับผลกระทบอย่างหนักจากการแพร่ระบาดของ COVID-19 สายการบินหลายแห่งเสี่ยงต่อการล้มละลาย เนื่องจากไม่สามารถทำการบินได้
เมื่อสายการบินไม่บินหรือบินน้อยลง ก็ไม่มีความจำเป็นต้องเติมน้ำมันบ่อยเหมือนช่วงเวลาปกติ
และเรื่องนี้กำลังสร้างฝันร้ายให้กับธุรกิจให้บริการเติมน้ำมันให้สายการบิน...
Continue ReadingNightmare. Business fueling the BAFS plane / Investing manly
Global Airline Businesses are heavily affected by COVID-19 epidemic. Many airlines risk bankruptcy because they can't fly.
When the airline doesn't fly or fly less, there is no need to refuel as often as usual.
And this is creating nightmares for airline refuel service business.
One of them is a Thai company named BAFS.
How interesting is this story
Invest. Man will tell you about it
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If you ask whether Thailand's aircraft refill service business is highly competitive, the answer is no.
Due to the nature of businesses that require high investments, matters must also be concession or allowed by the airport.
When things go like this, it makes this business less competitive because of the overwhelming obstacles in entering a new service provider business.
Currently in Thailand, the largest provider in the airline refuel business is Bangkok Airways Fuel Service Company Limited or BAFS.
By the main income structure of the company comprises.
1) 78 % airplane refuel service income.
2) 21 % pipeline oil service income
3) Other income 1 %
When you look like this, you will see that BAFS's main business is servicing to refuel the aircraft.
So what Airport Aircraft Refuel Service BAFS now?
Currently, the company is an investor and operates to provide gas-refill service to all 5 airports: Suvarnabhumi Airport, Don Mueang Airport, Samui Airport, Sukhothai Airport, cuddle Y and Trat Airport.
At Suvarnabhumi Airport, there are only 2 concessions for oil service to the airline.
BY BAFS HAS 89 % MARKET SHARE
While the remaining 4 airports, BAFS is the only airplane refueling provider or 100 % market share.
This is the highlight of the company and makes BAFS the largest airline of Thailand's largest airline refill business.
The amount of transportation into airports of planes has a direct impact on company's income.
If the tourism industry grows well, the company will have customers, which is airline to use.
But if not, what happens will be a corporate nightmare like what's happening right now.
Government in many countries must announce temporary entrance-exit from international airplanes.
This is why the number of passengers and number of flights BAFS provides refill service at Suvarnabhumi Airport and Don Mueang Airport.
Quarter 1/2562, 28.4 million passengers, 79,535 flights.
Quarter 1/2563, 19.6 million passengers, 64,613 flights.
When the number of flights coming to refuel service drops, it's not strange that both BAFS income and profits are heavily decreasing.
1/2562th quarter. Income 1,025 million baht. Profit of 368 million baht.
1/2563th quarter. Income 867 million baht. Profit of 153 million baht.
Income decreased by 15 % while profit decreased by 58 %
It's called refuel service business. It's going to be cuddle budget. It's not allergic to airline business and airport business.
And as everyone knows, the 2rd quarter, aviation related businesses will hit harder than the 1th quarter.
But BAFS has a relatively good financial status. Different from airline with a lot of debt. It should make this company go through this crisis after this incident unfolds.
However.
This may tell us that even a business that seems like a monopoly and almost sleeps without a rival can be an unexpected crisis at any time as BAFS is now facing.
It's similar to a familiar sentence that many people have heard. That's ′′ certainty is uncertainty ′′ which can happen to anything about work, living and investment..
Ending with interesting information
Did you know that BAFS big shareholders are companies, airlines, airports and oil companies, including Esso, PTT., Shell, Chefron, Thai Airport, Bangkok Airways and many people may not know the biggest shareholders. BAFS is ′′ Thai Airways ′′ which holds 22.59 % of this company..
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Follow and invest manly at
Website - longtunman.com
Blockdit-blockdit.com/longtunman
Facebook-@[113397052526245:274: lngthun mæn]
Twitter - twitter.com/longtunman
Instagram-instagram.com/longtunman
Line - page.line.me/longtunman
YouTube - youtube.com/longtunman
References
- Form 56-1 Year 2562 Bangkok Aviation Fuel Service Company Limited (Public)
- Management Discussion and Analysis Quarter 1 Ending 31 Mar. 2563 Bangkok Aviation Fuel Service Company Limited (Public)Translated
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ปตท. กับ ปิโตรนาส ใครใหญ่กว่ากัน? / โดย ลงทุนแมน
บริษัทพลังงานแห่งชาติของไทย คือ ปตท.
บริษัทพลังงานแห่งชาติของมาเลเซีย คือ ปิโตรนาส
...Continue ReadingPTT. With Petronas, who's bigger? / By Investing Man
Thailand's national energy company is PTT.
Malaysia's national energy company is petronas.
Both run businesses in a similar manner and are located in a neighboring territory.
But the question that everyone would suspect.
In fact, these 2 companies. Who's bigger?
Invest man will tell you about it.
Petronas was founded earlier in July. 1974 or 45 years ago
The only owner of a state enterprise is Malaysian government
PTT. Established in chase time on July 1978 or 41 years ago
Initially a state enterprise as well, but later listed on the stock stock exchange. 51 % is the Ministry of Finance.
The purpose of setting up 2 companies is for the energy stability of the country.
As in the past, the world oil incident was deprived of the political crisis in the Middle East region. In that time, petroleum exploration must be leaned on foreign nationals.
And then both of them are growing up to become a leading energy company.
From upstream to downstream, explore and produce, oil refinery, petrochemicals, petrochemicals, oil, petrochemicals, oil and gas retail service stations.
So who has more resources?
Info about oil and natural gas sources at the end of 2018
Thailand
Proven oil reserves 300 million barrels (last 2 years)
There is oil production 0.49 million barrels per day.
I want to use 1.48 million barrels per day oil.
And have a proven amount of natural gas reserves. 2 hundred billion cubic meters (5 years used)
There is a gas production of 3.8 billion cubic meters per day.
I want to use 4.9 billion cubic meters of gas a day.
Made by netthai is an energy importer.
Malaysia country
Proven oil reserves at 3,000 million barrels (last for 12 years)
There is oil production 0.68 million barrels per day.
I want to use 0.81 million barrels per day oil.
And have a proven amount of natural gas reserves of 2.4 trillion cubic meters (33 years available).
There is a gas production of 7.3 billion cubic meters per day.
I want to use 4.1 billion cubic meters of gas a day.
Made by net, Malaysia is an energy exporter, especially natural gas.
When this happens, what is the result of all 2 National Energy Companies?
PTT.
Year 2017 Income 2.0 Trillion Baht. Profit 1.3 Baht.
Year 2018 Income 2.3 Trillion Baht. Profit 1.2 Baht.
Petronas
Year 2017 Income 1.7 Trillion Baht. Profit 3.4 Baht.
Year 2018 Income 1.9 Trillion Baht. Profit 4.1 Baht.
I will see that PTT. Earn higher income
But Petronas has a higher profit of several times.
The main cause of these 2 companies have different income structures and ability to make profit.
Thailand consumes more energy so it has a higher sales base.
It's not enough to produce. It has to be imported from foreign countries with small profit.
The income proportion of PTT Year 2018
34 % comes from International Trade Business
31 % comes from petrochemical and refined business.
16 % comes from oil and retail business.
13 % comes from the natural gas business
5 % is from PTT. Explore and produce petroleum
In addition, the owner of the petroleum source in Thailand is the right of the government which allows private sector to compete with concessions and must share benefits to the state as agreed.
By PTT. The director. The company of PTT. Just one of the concession recipients. It's producing about 34 % of the total.
While Malaysia has more resources than can be produced for export, and right to all petroleum sources belong to petroleum, the state enterprise makes a significant profit.
Proportion of income of petronas 2018
45 % comes from upstream business (i.e. survey and produce)
49 % comes from downstream business (i.e. petrochemical, service station)
Petroleum exports are 39 % of income more than domestic sales are 29 %
For all the reasons, even PTT. There will be more income, but compared to the value of the company. Petronas is much bigger.
Companies property value at the end of 2018
PTT. At 2.4 trillion baht
Petronas is at 4.7 Trillion Baht.
Company Market Value (Market Cap)
PTT. At 1.3 trillion baht
As for Petronas, the mother company is not on the stock market, but it has brought 3 children to raise money.
Petronas Chemicals Group worth 4.4 billion baht.
Petronas Gas worth 2.4 billion baht.
Petronas Dagangan worth 1.7 billion baht.
In total, the company of petronas in the stock market will be worth 8.5 billion Baht.
But with all the profits of the Petroleum group, if it's on the stock market and trading with P / E at least 10 times more than 4 million baht, which is bigger than PTTT. At least 3 times
This one sums it up
If you compare to the income of PTT. Will be bigger than petronas
Compared to the value of petronas company will be bigger than PTT.
But the more important thing is, from the beginning to the present, both have evolved into top energy companies as well.
The most benefited people in the country.
Throwback to 40 years ago
If these 2 countries don't set up energy companies
Today, I have to rely on foreigners and there are more energy barriers than now..
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References
- Annual Report 2018 PTTT
- Annual Report 2018 Petronas
-https://www.petronas.com/ws/sites/default/files/downloads/Financial%20Report%20Financial%20Year%20Ended%2031%20December%202018%20%28FY2018%29.pdf
-https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petronas
-https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2019-full-report.pdf
-https://www.pttep.com/th/Investorrelations/Eventsandpresentations/download.aspx?File=642&Event=4120
-http://www.pttplc.com/th/Media-Center/ptt-hot-issue/Documents/Corporate%20Issue/ทำไมปิโตรนาสกำไรมากกว่า%20ปตท.%20แต่ขายน้ำมันได้ถูกกว่าไทย.pdfTranslated
global financial company ptt 在 Investor Relations - PTT Global Chemical 的推薦與評價
You will learn more about our fundamental information that helps you to understand our businesses such as Company Performance, Stock Information etc. ... <看更多>
global financial company ptt 在 PTT Public Company Limited (PTT) 的推薦與評價
Financial Highlights · Presentations & Webcast · Investor Kits · PTT Debenture Club ... International oil trading business having traded. ... <看更多>
global financial company ptt 在 Re: [閒聊] 證券業真的沒有未來了嗎? - 看板Finance 的推薦與評價
10/26 更新
有些推文不知道怎麼回覆,思維太特別了。
investment bank 在海外就是指證券公司,例如bb(全球最大的九間投資銀行/證券公司),
cicc, nomura, rbc等等。
其中,前台部門(business segments)包含:
1) ibd (投行部:負責融資)
2) asset management (資產管理:負責投資)
3) pwm (提供高淨值客戶投資平台與財富規劃)
4) markets/ sales and trading(marketmaking,提供市場流動性,幫客戶撮合交易)
5) research(提供宏觀經濟、投資策略、個股研究服務給buyside & in-house)
狹義的investment bank也可以指投行部。
以上適用於紐約、芝加哥、倫敦、法蘭克福、蘇黎世、香港、新加坡,雪梨,東京,巴黎
等國際金融中心。
台灣的證券公司佔全世界的證券公司營收或資產的規模連1%都不到,沒錯,連1%都不到。
不懂怎麼會有人覺得投資銀行的定義是照台灣人說的為準...
除此之外,台灣的證券公司的商業模式(或是說在台灣運營的證券公司,包括外資與台資
)在全球範圍上來看並不是主流的商業模式,在諸多業務上有限制。
例如:台灣基本沒有pwm(完全做不到全球資產配置的功能,結構性產品也是香港或新加坡
辦公室提供的),asset management 也沒有什麼primary investment,資管能投的市場
與標的都很有限,markets/ sales and trading覆蓋許多retail investors客戶。
其實不僅台灣券商,外資行在台灣辦公室的運營也跟紐倫港的辦公室有很大的差異。
請搞清楚,今天是你跟人家不一樣,你還很理直氣壯的去說別人怎麼跟你不一樣,好像別
人是異類。人家的軍隊在那訓練城鎮作戰、如何反恐,你在那發手套拔草,人手一隻掃把
掃將軍道落葉,結果自己人提出正常的軍隊應該是如何培訓的,你在那說不要只會討論人
家如何訓練的....跟我們沒關係,有沒有搞錯?
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 218.252.109.87 (香港)
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Finance/M.1603480413.A.2A2.html
中芯國際你真的很M lol
沒錯,紐約在金融產品的創新性、定價能力、融資能力、與市場參與者的多樣性與成熟度
等等來看,都是領先其他市場一截。但這並不能說明其他的國際金融中心不能跟他相提並
論,事實上,有不少金融中心的金融體系與紐約是類似的,例如:以機構投資者為主的
資本市場、長線的LP基金、多元的LP(endownment, insurance, pension fund, sovereign
wealth fund等等)、投行對IPO的定價和尋找基石投資者、有豐富的衍生性金融產品、
有很強的融資能力可以吸引到大量的外國企業來當地融資以及外國資本來當地投資、
普通法體系、股票市場沒有漲跌幅限制可以當沖可以做空、良好的金融監管體制與法律、
擁有眾多受過高等教育且英語能力良好的人才等等。
這些條件使得世界上能夠真正的作為國際金融中心,大型跨國金融企業願意去當地開設
區域總部的城市就只有四個:紐倫港新,其餘地區的辦公室,鮮少會去cover其他國家
或地區的業務,更多的是扮演一個協助的功能,跨多國的deal牽頭的主要還是這些區域
總部的辦公室。
目前這也是主流大型跨國金融公司的運營策略,不存在一個總部打天下的概念。
舉例:香港辦公室會提供金融服務給台灣、大陸、南韓、日本的企業,倫敦辦公室會協助
歐陸企業在倫敦的上市與再融資,一般來說,不會派其他區域辦公室去牽頭做offshore
business
現今全球主流金融機構都是大力投資拓展亞洲市場的業務,因為亞洲的增速最快,
一般來說,他們在亞太地區的市場區分有兩種
1) Asia Pacific ex-Japan + Japan
日本被單獨拉出來看,因為市場足夠大,但金融市場又與紐約倫敦不同。
2) Asia Pacific
如果是美資,亞太總部會設在香港
如果是歐資,亞太總部大多在新加坡
中資(X銀國際)與日資(Nomura)在這的首選是香港
另外,我想你可能不太了解我們這個行業,除了日本的金融機構外,“外資行”
在香港&新加坡賺的錢是遠比他們在日本賺的錢來的多,原因是因為人家在香港新加坡
做生意不只是做onshore business,他們做很多offshore business,你可以自己去查下
大型跨國金融企業的年報,就能略知一二,我還沒看過有哪家非日本的大型金融機構在
日本賺的錢比在香港賺的錢來的多的。
不存在你所謂的歐美人對日本比較有興趣,可能只有你
有許多台灣、中國大陸、南韓的金融產品、跨境的大型併購與融資是透過香港辦公室去
做的,甚至連日本當地的一些業務也會透過香港去做,以下列舉幾個原因:
1) NY, London, HK, SG是common law,扣除掉英聯邦,大多數的國家都是civil law
在金融這個強監管的行業來說是影響很大的,civil law對trust相關的法律與承認
不是那麼完善的,另外法律系統的不同也造成legal & compliance governance and cost
的上升。在香港與新加坡要找到懂BVI & Caymand的律師跟在台灣找7-11一樣容易。
2) 在London, HK, SG,那些美元資本過去投資很容易,除了沒有資本管制外,還有大型
金融企業的區域總部能夠提供投資相關的服務,錢到這裡來,有許多時候也不需要換成
其他的貨幣,就直接使用美元去投資不同國家的資產,例如USD PE FUND, 拍錢給項目方
給的是美元,許多投二級的基金fundraising拿的也是美元,這在不少市場是被限制的
順帶一提,如果外資要透過HK投中國,HKD-USD peg system 也降低了機構投資人的
hedging cost
3) 在香港與新加坡可以找到一狗票用英語作為工作語言的人才,而且這邊的documents
“一定”會有英文版,這方便了全球辦公室的合作
4) 這年頭沒有人可以不配置資產在中國,stock connect & bond connect 提供了
歐美投資人把錢放在香港進入中國的管道,透過offshore去投資中國還是主流的玩法。
5) 由於regulatory的關係,在日本要做offshore業務有諸多限制。
這造成了無法在東京設立亞太總部來開展其他國家與地區的業務。這也是為什麼日本
明明就在亞洲,自身也是很成熟的市場,大型跨國金融企業還要透過香港或新加坡開立
辦公室去開展亞太地區的其他國家的業務的原因。
以上幾點原因就是為什麼大型跨國金融機構在香港/新加坡比在日本賺更多錢,而且人家
選擇在香港/新加坡設立亞太總部的原因,不存在你說得更喜歡日本,可能只有你更喜歡
如果你去看一下最近馬來西亞的1MDB案,就會發現其實這個deal在GS內部,也是HK
office分到的錢最多,compliance and control hub就在HK,他們怎麼不派其他地方的
banker過去主導?
我一個朋友在某家美資BB,前陣子從台北跳到香港的也說他們以前在台北的所有複雜
的金融產品“都是“SG提供給他們的而且還charge很高的spread,跑到香港後發現
在香港對接台灣客戶,生意變的很好做,因為價格比以前能夠給的好太多了。
另外我一個在另一家美資BB的朋友也說:由於這幾年中國金融市場開放,去年在中國拿了
一些牌照後,也是先從HK把人送去大陸去開展業務。
我另一個做trading的朋友,他前陣子有個客戶要投資澳洲,也是透過HK投了100多M USD
去澳洲,並沒有透過澳洲當地的office去投資。
這些事情,對於外資行位處東京的辦公室來說,都很難去做到,日本跟中國大陸很像,
自己的市場都夠大,能夠打造大型的金融機構,但他們跟主流的打法不一樣,有自己一套
玩法。
所以他們打造不了真正意義上的國際金融中心,只能做成regional financial hub。
另外很抱歉,HK SG就是跟NY London一個tier的,人家只是騎士和湖人的差距而已
不是NBA跟SBL的差距。
多與少,跟有或無的區別希望你能分清楚,在HK/SG你可以遇到KKR, GIC, Blackstone,
BlackRock, GSO, Renaissance Technologies, Marshalll Wace, Sequoia在New York/
London/HK/SG的 PM跟strategist來pitch,也可以找到要幫其他市場打算在當地IPO的
股或債的banker提供相關的訊息。
本地化是個趨勢,北美就讓紐約來,歐洲讓倫敦來,亞太讓香港新加坡來,人家的DNA是
類似的,這也是為什麼現在很多大型跨國金融企業的Head of APAC會進
Global Executive Committee的原因。
之前聽HSBC的中國副行長在一個seminar上說:歐美的市場已經很成熟 market share
的變化不會太大,現在大家眼光都放在增長最快的APAC,因為只要能拿下這裡,就能成為
世界第一。
我想這對歐資行來說更是如此,08年後歐資行的規模與盈利能力被美資行大幅拉開,
亞太地區或許是他們能夠逆轉這競爭格局的契機。
我個人覺得中國大陸的證券公司的發展路徑很適合給台灣參照,他們也是散戶很多,但
經紀業務在萎縮的情況,volume不比從前,commision fee squeeze,underwritting
的spread壓到超低,但人家知道怎麼學歐美大行以及結合自身的處境去開展新業務
和改善現在的業務模式,錢不夠沒關係,把錢砸在最有用得人身上就行,這是金融業
不是三個臭皮匠勝過一個諸葛亮的地方,一個有用的人勝過招十個普通人,錢給到位了
下面的看到就會跟上了,中國的券商其實除了那兩家外,其他的新鮮人起薪也不高,
我還有朋友的朋友,跟人借錢出差,然後把房間出租airbnb的,因為公司發的薪水不夠
先墊出差的費用,但是想進去他們公司的人還是一狗票,為什麼?
因為人家公司很敢把錢給做出成績的人,項目做出來了一年抵其他行業十年的錢,
每個人都會拼著命想往上爬,現在台灣的問題是出在上限不高而不是下限在哪。
人是往前看的,金融圈混得好的沒有一個是只看現在,DCF做過吧?前幾年到手的錢
真的不是那麼重要。
digitalization做好了就不需要那麼多的人工成本了,wealth managemet也是另一個
發力點,台灣有很多中產階級與有錢人的資產配置沒有被良好的滿足。
法律體系與監管的不同導致跟主流玩家的玩法不一樣沒關係,重點是怎麼從人家身上擷取
有價值且適合自己的部分,台灣的體量絕對撐得起一個健康的中等規模的資本市場。
避險貨幣跟央行貨幣政策又不是決定一個地方能不能成為國際金融中心的主要因素,重點
是那個地方的制度能不能被資本信任以及能被資本多好的利用,人民幣也被納進了sdr,
還是全球第五大儲備貨幣,according to IMF,日圓在全球央行的貨幣儲備還比英鎊的佔比
來的高。
但除了當地的公司,沒有大型跨國金融機構會把亞太總部設在北京或東京,這些公司在hk
sg賺的錢以及做的交易複雜程度就是比在東京多和北京多。
資本在亞太地區主要也是透過hk sg這兩個offshore market去配置在其他國家,
人家考量cost of capital也是拿libor當benchmark,不是東京的銀行間市場。
沒有人說東京不行,他很好,但東京做的主要就是日本的業務,去當地發債 上市的
外國企業數量相對有限,簡單來說就他的offshore玩得沒HK SG厲害。
我一直舉數據佐證,你只能在那我覺得。跟你說了原因了,人家是市場大,但那玩法不是
主流,市場多大,跟怎麼玩,和誰有影響力,是三個不同的概念。跟你說話很累,討論議
題都不在一個高度上去分析,你繼續自high吧
※ 編輯: justin821 (218.252.109.87 香港), 10/26/2020 14:09:03
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