根據計算,100萬人遊行隊伍要從維多利亞公園排到廣東;200萬人遊行則要排到泰國。
順道一提香港15~30歲人口約莫100出頭萬人。以照片人群幾乎都是此年齡帶來看,兩個數字都是明顯誇大太多了。
另一個可以參考的是1969年的Woodstock Music & Art Fair,幾天內湧進40萬人次,照片看起來也是滿山滿谷的人。(http://sites.psu.edu/…/upl…/sites/851/2013/01/Woodstock3.jpg)
當年40萬人次引發驚人的大塞車,幾乎花十幾個小時才逐漸清場。
而香港遊行清場速度明顯快得多。
順道一提,因此運動而認定「你的父母不愛你」的白痴論述也如同文化大革命時的「爹親娘親不如毛主席親」般開始出現:
https://www.facebook.com/SaluteToHKPolice/videos/350606498983830/UzpfSTUyNzM2NjA3MzoxMDE1NjMyMTM4NjY3MTA3NA/
EVERY MAJOR NEWS outlet in the world is reporting that two million people, well over a quarter of our population, joined a single protest.
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It’s an astonishing thought that filled an enthusiastic old marcher like me with pride. Unfortunately, it’s almost certainly not true.
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A march of two million people would fill a street that was 58 kilometers long, starting at Victoria Park in Hong Kong and ending in Tanglangshan Country Park in Guangdong, according to one standard crowd estimation technique.
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If the two million of us stood in a queue, we’d stretch 914 kilometers (568 miles), from Victoria Park to Thailand. Even if all of us marched in a regiment 25 people abreast, our troop would stretch towards the Chinese border.
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Yes, there was a very large number of us there. But getting key facts wrong helps nobody. Indeed, it could hurt the protesters more than anyone.
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For math geeks only, here’s a discussion of the actual numbers that I hope will interest you whatever your political views.
.
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DO NUMBERS MATTER?
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People have repeatedly asked me to find out “the real number” of people at the recent mass rallies in Hong Kong.
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I declined for an obvious reason: There was a huge number of us. What does it matter whether it was hundreds of thousands or a million? That’s not important.
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But my critics pointed out that the word “million” is right at the top of almost every report about the marches. Clearly it IS important.
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FIRST, THE SCIENCE
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In the west, drone photography is analyzed to estimate crowd sizes.
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This reporter apologizes for not having found a comprehensive database of drone images of the Hong Kong protests.
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But we can still use related methods, such as density checks, crowd-flow data and impact assessments. Universities which have gathered Hong Kong protest march data using scientific methods include Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, University of Hong Kong, and Hong Kong Baptist University.
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DENSITY CHECKS
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Figures gathered in the past by Hong Kong Polytechnic specialists using satellite photo analysis found a density level of one square meter per marcher. Modern analysis suggests this remains roughly accurate.
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I know from experience that Hong Kong marches feature long periods of normal spacing (one square meter or one and half per person, walking) and shorter periods of tight spacing (half a square meter or less per person, mostly standing).
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JOINERS AND SPEED
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We need to include people who join halfway. In the past, a Hong Kong University analysis using visual counting methods cross-referenced with one-on-one interviews indicated that estimates should be boosted by 12% to accurately reflect late joiners. These days, we’re much more generous in estimating joiners.
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As for speed, a Hong Kong Baptist University survey once found a passing rate of 4,000 marchers every ten minutes.
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Videos of the recent rallies indicates that joiner numbers and stop-start progress were highly erratic and difficult to calculate with any degree of certainty.
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DISTANCE MULTIPLIED BY DENSITY
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But scientists have other tools. We know the walking distance between Victoria Park and Tamar Park is 2.9 kilometers. Although there was overspill, the bulk of the marchers went along Hennessy Road in Wan Chai, which is about 25 meters (or 82 feet) wide, and similar connected roads, some wider, some narrower.
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Steve Doig, a specialist in crowd analysis approached by the Columbia Journalism Review (CJR), analyzed an image of Hong Kong marchers to find a density level of 7,000 people in a 210-meter space. Although he emphasizes that crowd estimates are never an exact science, that figure means one million Hong Kong marchers would need a street 18.6 miles long – which is 29 kilometers.
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Extrapolating these figures for the June 16 claim of two million marchers, you’d need a street 58 kilometers long.
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Could this problem be explained away by the turnover rate of Hong Kong marchers, which likely allowed the main (three kilometer) route to be filled more than once?
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The answer is yes, to some extent. But the crowd would have to be moving very fast to refill the space a great many times over in a single afternoon and evening. It wasn’t. While I can walk the distance from Victoria Park to Tamar in 41 minutes on a quiet holiday afternoon, doing the same thing during a march takes many hours.
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More believable: There was a huge number of us, but not a million, and certainly not two million.
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IMPACT MEASUREMENTS
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A second, parallel way of analyzing the size of the crowd is to seek evidence of the effects of the marchers’ absence from their normal roles in society.
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If we extract two million people out of a population of 7.4 million, many basic services would be severely affected while many others would grind to a complete halt.
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Manpower-intensive sectors of society, such as transport, would be badly affected by mass absenteeism. Industries which do their main business on the weekends, such as retail, restaurants, hotels, tourism, coffee shops and so on would be hard hit. Round-the-clock operations such as hospitals and emergency services would be severely troubled, as would under-the-radar jobs such as infrastructure and utility maintenance.
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There seems to be no evidence that any of that happened in Hong Kong.
.
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HOW DID WE GET INTO THIS MESS?
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To understand that, a bit of historical context is necessary.
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In 2003, a very large number of us walked from Victoria Park to Central. The next day, newspapers gave several estimates of crowd size.
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The differences were small. Academics said it was 350,000 plus. The police counted 466,000. The organizers, a group called the Civil Rights Front, rounded it up to 500,000.
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No controversy there. But there was trouble ahead.
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THINGS FALL APART
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At a repeat march the following year, it was obvious to all of us that our numbers were far lower that the previous year. The people counting agreed: the academics said 194,000 and the police said 200,000.
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But the Civil Rights Front insisted that there were MORE than the previous year’s march: 530,000 people.
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The organizers lost credibility even with us, their own supporters. To this day, we all quote the 2003 figure as the high point of that period, ignoring their 2004 invention.
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THE TRUTH COUNTS
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The organizers had embarrassed the marchers. The following year several organizations decided to serve us better, with detailed, scientific counts.
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After the 2005 march, the academics said the headcount was between 60,000 and 80,000 and the police said 63,000. Separate accounts by other independent groups agreed that it was below 100,000.
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But the organizers? The Civil Rights Front came out with the awkward claim that it was a quarter of a million. Ouch. (This data is easily confirmed from multiple sources in newspaper archives.)
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AN UNEXPECTED TWIST
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But then came a twist. Some in the Western media chose to present ONLY the organizer’s “outlier” claim.
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“Dressed in black and chanting ‘one man, one vote’, a quarter of a million people marched through Hong Kong yesterday,” said the Times of London in 2005.
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“A quarter of a million protesters marched through Hong Kong yesterday to demand full democracy from their rulers in Beijing,” reported the UK Independent.
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It became obvious that international media outlets were committed to emphasizing whichever claim made the Hong Kong government (and by extension, China) look as bad as possible. Accuracy was nowhere in the equation.
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STRATEGICALLY CHOSEN
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At universities in Hong Kong, there were passionate discussions about the apparent decision to pump up the numbers as a strategy, with the international media in mind. Activists saw two likely positive outcomes.
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First, anyone who actually wanted the truth would choose a middle point as the “real” number: thus it was worth making the organizers’ number as high as possible. (The police could be presented as corrupt puppets of Beijing.)
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Second, international reporters always favored the largest number, since it implicitly criticized China. Once the inflated figure was established in the Western media, it would become the generally accepted figure in all publications.
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Both of the activists’ predictions turned out to be bang on target. In the following years, headcounts by social scientists and police were close or even impressively confirmed the other—but were ignored by the agenda-driven international media, who usually printed only the organizers’ claims.
.
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SKIP THIS SECTION
.
Skip this section unless you want additional examples to reinforce the point.
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In 2011, researchers and police said that between 63,000 and 95,000 of us marched. Our delightfully imaginative organizers multiplied by four to claim there were 400,000 of us.
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In 2012, researchers and police produced headcounts similar to the previous year: between 66,000 and 97,000. But the organizers claimed that it was 430,000. (These data can also be easily confirmed in any newspaper archive.)
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.
SKIP THIS SECTION TOO
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Unless you’re interested in the police angle. Why are police figures seen as lower than others? On reviewing data, two points emerge.
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First, police estimates rise and fall with those of independent researchers, suggesting that they function correctly: they are not invented. Many are slightly lower, but some match closely and others are slightly higher. This suggests that the police simply have a different counting method.
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Second, police sources explain that live estimates of attendance are used for “effective deployment” of staff. The number of police assigned to work on the scene is a direct reflection of the number of marchers counted. Thus officers have strong motivation to avoid deliberately under-estimating numbers.
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RECENT MASS RALLIES
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Now back to the present: this hot, uncomfortable summer.
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Academics put the 2019 June 9 rally at 199,500, and police at 240,000. Some people said the numbers should be raised or even doubled to reflect late joiners or people walking on parallel roads. Taking the most generous view, this gave us total estimates of 400,000 to 480,000.
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But the organizers, God bless them, claimed that 1.03 million marched: this was four times the researchers’ conservative view and more than double the generous view.
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The addition of the “.03m” caused a bit of mirth among social scientists. Even an academic writing in the rabidly pro-activist Hong Kong Free Press struggled to accept it. “Undoubtedly, the anti-amendment group added the extra .03 onto the exact one million figure in order to give their estimate a veneer of accuracy,” wrote Paul Stapleton.
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MIND-BOGGLING ESTIMATE
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But the vast majority of international media and social media printed ONLY the organizers’ eyebrow-raising claim of a million plus—and their version soon fed back into the system and because the “accepted” number. (Some mentioned other estimates in early reports and then dropped them.)
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The same process was repeated for the following Sunday, June 16, when the organizers’ frankly unbelievable claim of “about two million” was taken as gospel in the majority of international media.
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“Two million people in Hong Kong protest China's growing influence,” reported Fox News.
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“A record two million people – over a quarter of the city’s population” joined the protest, said the Guardian this morning.
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“Hong Kong leader apologizes as TWO MILLION take to the streets,” said the Sun newspaper in the UK.
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Friends, colleagues, fellow journalists—what happened to fact-checking? What happened to healthy skepticism? What happened to attempts at balance?
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CONCLUSIONS?
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I offer none. I prefer that you do your own research and draw your own conclusions. This is just a rough overview of the scientific and historical data by a single old-school citizen-journalist working in a university coffee shop.
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I may well have made errors on individual data points, although the overall message, I hope, is clear.
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Hong Kong people like to march.
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We deserve better data.
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We need better journalism. Easily debunked claims like “more than a quarter of the population hit the streets” help nobody.
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International media, your hostile agendas are showing. Raise your game.
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Organizers, stop working against the scientists and start working with them.
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Hong Kong people value truth.
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We’re not stupid. (And we’re not scared of math!)
同時也有2部Youtube影片,追蹤數超過3萬的網紅The Family UK,也在其Youtube影片中提到,Written by Dr Auntie ⤵️ It was 1983. I just turned 7. That morning I was sent to school. I forgot now how I exactly felt. I’m sure I was feeling exci...
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- 關於how to choose uk university 在 元毓 Facebook 的精選貼文
- 關於how to choose uk university 在 โปรแกรมเมอร์ไทย Thai programmer Facebook 的最佳貼文
- 關於how to choose uk university 在 Daphne Iking Facebook 的最佳解答
- 關於how to choose uk university 在 The Family UK Youtube 的最佳解答
- 關於how to choose uk university 在 Bubzvlogz Youtube 的最佳貼文
how to choose uk university 在 โปรแกรมเมอร์ไทย Thai programmer Facebook 的最佳貼文
เด็กสมัยนี้เรียนเขียนโปรแกรมตั้งแต่ประถม ยันมัธยม จากที่ไหนได้บ้าง?
สำหรับแหล่งเรียนรู้แรกก็คือ
👉 1) จากวิชาเรียน "วิทยาการคำนวณ" วิชาบังคับใหม่แกะกล่องของกระทรวงศึกษา โดยนำร่องเริ่มแค่ ป.1, ป.4 และ ม.1, ม.4 ในปี 2561
แล้วจะค่อยขยับไป ป.1, ป.2., ป.4, ป5, และ ม.1, ม.2, ม.4, ม.5 ในปีหน้า
จนครบทุกชั้นปีตั้งแต่ป.1 ถึง ม.6 ในปี 2563
ส่วนเนื้อหาในตำราเรียน ถ้าเป็นระดับประถมจะเป็นการ์ตูนสนุกๆ อ่านง่าย อ่านเพลิน ไม่น่าเบื่อ ในส่วนการสอนโคดดิ่ง ก็จะแนะนำ Scratch เป็นภาษาภาพ
พอ ม.1 จะเริ่มเขียนโปรแกรมแหละ เขาจะให้โรงเรียนเลือกสอนเป็น Python หรือ Scratch ก็ได้
(ถ้าสนใจจะซื้อหนังสือเรียนวิทยาการคำนวณ ก็สั่งได้ที่ศูนย์หนังสือจุฬา นะครับ)
++++ แต่ย้ำนะครับว่าหลักสูตรใหม่นี้ของเด็ก เรื่องของการเขียนโปรแกรม เป็นเพียงแค่ 1 ใน 3 ของการเรียนการสอนเท่านั้น ไม่ได้ยัดสอนเขียนโปรแกรมล้วนๆ แบบในมหาวิทยาลัย
👉 2) ต่อมาถ้าใครอยากเรียนรู้นอกตำรา ก็สามารถเรียนเขียนโปรแกรมไปพร้อมๆ กับ BNK48 (เป็นพรีเซนเตอร์) ที่โครงการ coding thailand สำหรับเว็บไซต์ก็คือ https://codingthailand.org
เว็บนี้สามารถใช้เป็นสื่อการเรียนและการสอน ประกอบวิชา "วิทยาการคำนวณ" ในข้อ 1) ได้โดยตรง ซึ่งเนื้อหาสำหรับเด็กประถม จะใช้ภาษาภาพ เป็นบล็อกคำสั่ง
เพราะปกติการเรียนเขียนโปรแกรมสำหรับเด็กเล็ก เขาจะให้เล่นผ่านเกม สร้างเรื่องราวสนุกๆ จากตัวละครเอาไว้ฝึกตรรกะ ภาษาที่ใช้เขียนจะเป็นภาษาภาพ เป็นบล็อกคำสั่งควบคุมตัวละครในเกม ทำให้การเรียนรู้สนุกไม่น่าเบื่อ
คอร์เรียนที่นี้มีตั้งแต่ประถม มัธยม ยันมหาลัย เป็นแพลตฟอร์มออนไลน์ระดับประเทศ ของสำนักงานส่งเสริมเศรษฐกิจดิจิทัลดิจิทัล (depa) ของบ้านเรา ร่วมมือกับ code.org รวมทั้งจับมือกับไมโครซอฟท์ (Microsoft) ,กูเกิล (Google) และ อักษรเอ็ดดูเคชั่น (Aksorn Education) สร้างคอร์สเขียนโปรแกรมสำหรับเด็กไทย ที่สำคัญเรียนออนไลน์ได้ฟรีๆ
👉 3) ต่อมาเป็นเว็บที่สอนเรียนเขียนโปรแกรมผ่านออนไลน์ (บางอันก็เป็นของต่างประเทศ)
- CS Unplugged (www.csunplugged.org)
- เว็บไซต์ CS4FN (www.cs4fn.org)
- เว็บไซต์ Code.org (www.code.org)
- เว็บไซต์ CASBarefoot (barefootcas.org.uk)
ส่วนแหล่งเรียนรู้อื่นๆ ที่พอแนะนำเพิ่มเติม ได้แก่
- https://programming.in.th/ เว็บฝึกเขียนโปรแกรมของ สสวท โดยเฉพาะ เนื้อหาเป็นภาษา C กับ C++ สอนเขียนโปรแกรมเป็นจริง เป็นจัง
- http://scratch.mit.edu
- http://oho.ipst.ac.th เป็นสื่อเรียนรู้ของ สสวท โดยเฉพาะ
- https://teachinglondoncomputing.org/secondary-computing-to…/
- ถ้าเป็นของ khanacademy.org แนะนำ
https://www.khanacademy.org/com…/computer-science/algorithms
- และอื่นๆ ที่ไม่ได้กล่าวถึง
Where can kids study programming from elementary to high school?
For the first source of learning is
👉 1) from study "calculation science" new mandatory subject. Unpack the box of ministry of education by pilot. Starting from the po. 1, p. 4 and university 1, m. 4 in 2561
Then I will move to the po. 1, p. 2., po 4, PO 5, and university 1, m. 2, m. 4, m. 5 next year
Until every year since the grade. 1 to university 6 in 2563
The content in textbooks, if it's elementary, it will be fun cartoon. Easy to read, not boring. In the teaching section, I will recommend scratch in photo language.
Pom. Haha. I will start writing a program. They will let school choose to teach as python or scratch.
(if you are interested in buying a book of calculation science, order at Chula Book Center)
++++ but I repeat that this new course of children. THE STORY OF PROGRAMMING IS ONLY 1 OF 3 of teaching. Not purely programming in university.
👉 2) later, if anyone wants to learn outside the textbook, you can learn how to write a program together with bnk48 (Pre-Center) at coding Thailand project for the website is https://codingthailand.org
This web can be directly used as a media and teaching "calculation science" in verse 1). The content for primary school children will use image language as a blog.
Because normally, learning programming for young children, they play through games, creating fun stories from characters to practice logic. The language that are written will be a blog. The character control of character in the game. It makes learning fun, not boring.
Corrians are available from elementary, high school to college, National Online Platform of our home digital economy promotion office cuddle l (Depa). Collaborate with code.org, including handshake hands with Microsoft ( Microsoft), Google (Google) and ed duction (Aksorn Education) create an important Thai children's programming course for free online.
👉 3) later, it's a web that teaches online programming (some of them are foreign items)
- CS Unplugged (www.csunplugged.org)
- Cs4fn Website (www.cs4fn.org)
- Website Code.Org (www.code.org).
- Casbarefoot website (barefootcas.org. UK)
More recommended learning sources include:
- https://programming.in.th/ programming training web. Especially c and c language ++ teaching how to write program.
- http://scratch.mit.edu
- http://oho.ipst.ac.th is a particular learning media.
- https://teachinglondoncomputing.org/secondary-computing-topics/
- if it belongs to khanacademy.org recommended
https://www.khanacademy.org/computing/computer-science/algorithms
- and more not mentionedTranslated
how to choose uk university 在 Daphne Iking Facebook 的最佳解答
📣*Great News for Parents:* 📣
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*“How can I keep these problems from affecting my family?”*,
*“Where can I go for help?”*
*“What if my children won’t listen?”*
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how to choose uk university 在 The Family UK Youtube 的最佳解答
Written by Dr Auntie ⤵️
It was 1983. I just turned 7. That morning I was sent to school. I forgot now how I exactly felt. I’m sure I was feeling excited & anxious at the same time. But I remember how my father held my hand & walked with me to my classroom. Darjah 1 Biru. I remember that. I remember how my father helped to choose a desk for me. Yes Daddy, I know how much you wanted me to be successful, hence you put me right at the front of the classroom ?
November 2019. I was invited for a motivational talk for the students at SK Zainab 1. It was a prestigious event sponsored by SMO Bookstore. I wanted to accept, but the audience was too young for my experience. I wanted to decline, but that particular school was...my old school! I had a terrible dilemma, but that didn’t last long. I happily (yet nervously) said yes! I’ve been giving motivational talks to so many groups of people - from managers, leaders, frontline staff, academics, to university students. But this time, I‘d be speaking to my youngest audience ever - primary school students, age 7-12. How could I say no to an invitation that would bring me back to my old school?
Sunday 17 Nov 2019. I stepped into the school again after 35 years. I purposely brought my father with me. I held his hand, walked with him side-by-side, like the old days. Just that, this time we were escorted. We were brought to a large hall. My father was seated right at the front. I was so honoured, not only by the invitation, but also the opportunity to speak to a huge crowd right before my father! It was truly an honour.
I finished my talk after over an hour. I didn’t expect such positive feedback! I prepared my material in such a way that it would attract the students’ attention - from the title of my talk to the slideshow. I’m so pleased that it was a success! Alhamdulillah. I had SO many kisses on my hand. One after another. MashaAllah. It was truly an honour ??
I‘d like to express my gratitude to SMO Bookstore for the sponsor, the Head Teacher, the rest of the teachers & the students of SK Zainab 1. Thank you for such an unforgettable day, “A Motivational Talk on How To Be Popular with Dr Ashmiza” ?
p/s: Follow Dr Auntie on Instagram⤵️
https://instagram.com/drauntie.uk?igshid=rtsst5qonwyr
(Credit Video to Mr Ahmed Aznee Othman from SMO Bookstores)
how to choose uk university 在 Bubzvlogz Youtube 的最佳貼文
Hello Youtube Family!
Here is another Ask Bubz episode. Thank you for sending in your questions. To ask me a question, tweet me with an #askbubz
The real question is, what is that piece of fluff on my hair?
Your questions:
1. Do you button a shirt from top to bottom or from bottom to top?
2. Has Isaac accidentally peed on you and Tim yet?
3. What's your best advice for going through high school?
4. Why did you move to Hong Kong, & what is stopping you from going back to the UK now?
5. Favourite thing to do when you get alone time?
6. What's your favorite part of being a mom?
7. How are you always so happy and comedic in all those vlogs?
8. What language do you and Tim speak to Isaac the most?
10. Please repeat (5 times) the following tongue twisters: - Red lorry, yellow lorry. - Six stick shifts stuck shut.
11. Are u gonna watch 50 shades of grey
12. Whats your most awkward moment while meeting a fan?
13. If you could have dinner with any three people (excluding your family), whom would you choose?
14. Explain tim in 3 words
15. What advice would you give to someone starting first year of university?
To ask me a question, tweet me (www.twitter.com/bubzbeauty) with an #askbubz
Love, Bubz xx
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