[大!師!冇!點!你!]我在Patreon 8月20號已經寫王維基隻 HKTV 1137 應該會入北水名單(左下)。有冇人早過我?然後出完業績8月26號我再寫多咗次(右下)。
TLDR:Patreon一早有寫,有冇人早過我? 所謂先知,就係知早你少少
==============
月頭訂最抵!一週年!比別人知得多。subscribe now(https://bityl.co/4Y0h)。Ivan Patreon,港美市場評點,專題號外,每日一圖,好文推介。每星期6篇,月費100,已經1900人訂! 畀年費仲有85折,20/40年費VIP 送本人著作一本。
==============
邁向2000人訂!Two thousand people can't be wrong!(扯,幾百萬人冇訂添!).搵人填埋佢,下一個目標當然係3000!
1. 就算你冇訂,都可以照睇返兩篇文嘅題目,對返日期,絶無呃人。又或者你見我在「今日寫呢啲」都有貼個題目出嚟,但當然冇話你知係邊隻。
2. 8月20號咩事?恒指季檢。咁你個個都只係留意邊隻染藍邊隻踢出,忽略咗「恒生綜合指數」都同時執位。固然「恒生綜合指數」唔係「恒生指數」,正如「神聖羅馬帝國」唔係「羅馬帝國」。陳瑞祺喇沙唔係喇沙(*)
3. 但,入「恒生綜合指數」,係入「港股通」aka北水表叔買貨名單(**)嘅先決條件,pre-requisite.
4. 咁再加埋幾個條件:第一,要夠50億市值,留意當時夠唔代表即時入到,要持續12個月月尾平均都夠(***),咁冇問題丫,我心算(!)都計到。第二就要成交夠,咁冇問題丫,「我都唔識計」,講真的,星展年代都係踢畀尊尼亞整,因為計法都十分煩。
5. 咁結果,8月20號,我咪話你知會入北水咯!8月26號出完業績我再寫多次。然後就入咗。上帝話,讓夜裡有光!
6. 但你話,車,今日(星期一)跌5% 喎!係喎,我唔知咩!
7. 咁我只能答你:扯,唔係升就跌架啦。你覺得廢?咁你有冇更好嘅提議?你走去講「好消息出貨」,聽落好似有內容,其實咪仲廢!
8. 講過好多次,股票呢啲嘢,三分科學七分藝術。固然幾時都不可測,但長期易啲(廣島都易),短期就難好多。正如你睇美股都好,一日升嘅機會,都只係52%少少,但拉到一年嘅,升嘅機會就去到65%!短線近乎冇得捉,長線就好啲—所以嗰啲不停炒短線嘅人,其實係同自己過唔去,十分笨七。(*****)
9. 同樣地,即係總有啲人又要講,「唔係喎,我聽好多人講,好消息都跌,即係隻嘢好貴喎」「埃汾你都有講過」。冇錯係,但大佬呀,邊有得一條定律用死。「扯咁任你講啦」,所以咪三分科學七分藝術。
10. 跌?冇驚過!表叔都未開始買!同時間星期一成交亦唔係特別大。
11. 況且,再跌咁點?冇乜點架。唔輸得架?買股票梗有蝕錢,有時蝕到趴街添。(可以睇返我魚缸溫度計嘅文(https://fbook.cc/3asM)),咁咩曼城利物浦德國巴西都會畀人大炒啦,但重點係,你唔係每隻都蝕到趴街嘛(你係嘅,咁幫你唔到,或者下次買乜話聲我知)
12. 最緊要係諗下個最壞情況係乜。「就係輸晒100%」。廢?唔廢,因為有啲產品,你可以唔止輸100%。正如你去做槓杆嘅,都可以輸唔止100%。
13. 重點係,一隻股票最多可以跌100%,但可以升幾百倍喎。所以長期沽空嘅人一般都係腦殘的
14. 又,今日下面堆**寫得好多,可以寫多幾篇文。有時間的話。(寫得呢句多數最後都冇時間寫)
(*)無意冒犯,呢個gag當然係陳瑞祺喇沙嘅朋友話我知的。
(**)當年甚麼港股直通車,某大行報告真係寫my cousin 定 my uncle’s shopping list
(***)所以有個陰謀論話 月尾會mark價,我望過,好似真係有個別公司會。拿,幫你諗埋Master dissertation 寫乜呀—博士論文寫呢啲就太垃圾了,呢啲垃圾題目,留返垃圾MSc dissertation 寫啦。(****)
(****)再講一次,香港讀taught master,完全係嘥錢嘥時間,呢篇係我極受歡迎嘅medium文,雖然寫得唔好。遲下我會寫多篇,「其實外國都係」—你係亞洲人過去浸鹹水學陽澄湖大閘蟹就冇所謂,但你本身係YC嘅(hate speech,大家自行想像,但你回文估答案搞到畀FB ban唔關我事),就不用多此一舉啦。持別係純文科嘅MA,嘥錢嘥時間就梗,最仆街係根本連知識同學習都冇,連教授同MPhil班友都睇唔起你班友,當你水魚養佢地咋,聽聞仲要係好難上PhD嘅,根撚本自己學校都睇你唔起,「即係副學士咁」
(*****)題外話,即使外行人,都可能聽過傳奇嘅耶魯基金,傳奇嘅Swensen。其中一個啟示,就係佢刻意利用咗大學基金可以極長期坐,又唔會點畀人贖回嘅特點,去買啲冇liquidity 嘅嘢,換嚟更大回報。點解可以咁?簡單嚟講,因為一般人都要liquidity,咁冇liquidity自然平啲。時間係普通散戶嘅優勢,係你朋友,但你選擇去短炒嘅,即係自己讓人半球先,情況等於圍棋你讓人地先咁(係喎,埃汾連圍棋都識捉)
==============
月頭訂最抵!一週年!比別人知得多。subscribe now(https://bityl.co/4Y0h)。Ivan Patreon,港美市場評點,專題號外,每日一圖,好文推介。每星期6篇,月費100,已經1900人訂! 畀年費仲有85折,20/40年費VIP 送本人著作一本。
==============
邁向2000人訂!Two thousand people can't be wrong!(扯,幾百萬人冇訂添!).搵人填埋佢,下一個目標當然係3000!
同時也有1部Youtube影片,追蹤數超過36萬的網紅9arm,也在其Youtube影片中提到,เฮ้อออออออออออออออออ คลิปเต็ม: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/328128829 ไลฟ์ทุกวันเสาร์ ห้าทุ่มทางทวิชนะ Facebook : https://www.facebook.com/castby9arm...
phd dissertation 在 Facebook 的最佳解答
[Buy now, pay later]BNPL,金融潮語。其實都潮咗大半年,不過香港咁上下啦。鬼媒講咗年幾兩年Content Creator,都未見香港有乜媒體專門整個beat
1. Buy now, pay later,「屌,咪即係花唄」「有幾撚有創意呀?我中華古已有之」「不過馬雲得罪人之嘛」。其實認真的,唔使括號,花唄都興咗N年,鬼佬而家先開心大現BNPL,完全係reinventing the wheel,不過記住講個英文縮寫就有人覺得好巴閉,Bullshit as a service,Baas.(話時話,Kyle Bass收咗皮未?港紙爆煲冇?)
==============
一週年!比別人知得多。subscribe now(https://bityl.co/4Y0h)。Ivan Patreon,港美市場評點,專題號外,每日一圖,好文推介。每星期6篇,月費100,已經1900人訂! 畀年費仲有85折,20/40年費VIP 送本人著作一本。
==============
2. OK,正經,「咪即係信用卡分期,有幾大發現呀?」。又唔係喎
3. 首先,香港人好撚有錢,同埋好有信用,香港人係好好嘅債仔,你見啲友真係斬人打劫呃同事呃老婆穿公司櫃桶底都會供樓的!
4. 當然,除咗香港人有錢,客觀亦因為香港丁屎咁細,你走得去邊?唔似美國或以前大陸(而家有晒監控另一回事),改個名換個車牌去第個城市又一條好漢。
5. 所以你見香港批信用卡成功率極高,私人貸款極易借,仲要供樓利息低。一個普通打工仔,一百幾十萬信用卡額絶對唔係難事。
6. 我想講嗰時我在英國讀書?出咗信用卡(開名啦,匯豐),500英鎊信用額。「喂你係學生冇收入點同,唔好偷換概念」。但你可以睇下普通一個香港大學生銀行批幾錢信用額畀佢?(*)
7. 我知全世界都低息,係呀我唔知呀可?港息大約都跟美息,但,你見美國有冇可能一兩厘供樓?你有冇諗過,香港供樓銀行收你咁平息,賺乜?「cross selling」,「美國唔識cross selling呀?」(咁當然,再三留意返,香港人好撚有錢)。
8. 真相係,香港嘅delinquency rate (拋個英文好似專業啲)極低。即使咩亞洲金融風暴或沙士或乜,你睇報紙咩負資產又跳樓,但,個delinquency rate都係極低—come the 忽on,負資產不等於delinquent!死還死七孔流血還七孔流血!甚至跳樓都不等於delinquent!別傻了星矢,你還有老豆還有老婆!
9. 但認真,咁低嘅delinquency rate,銀行咪圍到數,所以點解香港銀行嘅net interest margin咁低都仲有錢賺。剛睇業績,中銀香港淨息差1.10%,你諗下仲要出糧仲要交租仲要預你啲友燒炭,但居然都仲係賺唔少錢,可見delinquency rate幾咁低。美國?你可以睇下2008嗰時,啲次按有幾多delinquent,求撚其掉低鎖匙就兩腳一伸走人foreclosure,而美國啲銀主盤邊有香港咁正,可以賣原價咁滯(大把銀行拍賣銀主盤有賺添)
10. 同樣原則,你可以應用落去信用卡,私人貸款。
11. 當然仲有,再講一次,香港人好撚有錢。我冇統計過有幾多巴仙嘅人有信用卡,你睇卡數目唔準,因為有啲好似我咁嘅仆街一條友十幾張卡(又如何?)。但,目測香港嘅信用卡滲透率極高,「我Patreon啲讀者好似全部有」(**)
12. 講返,冇去過美國(係呀,我使唔使識整光刻機?ASML NVIDIA又新高啦屌你),但BNPL同信用卡,就真係唔係同一回事。可以係complement 亦可以係substitute (***)
13. Patreon會寫,有啲人只用信用卡,有啲人只用BNPL,有啲兩樣一齊。但,咩人係傾向用BNPL?你估到了:非白人(Hispanic或黑人),低收入人士,同埋……年青人,
14. 拿,學嘢?呢啲就學嘢啦。
15. 不過,「不如講返冧把」,Affirm就升五成啦,一舊水咁滯。「但2月嗰時140蚊」,而家先返返年頭水平,你買隻垃圾中移動941跑贏佢一截。估值都係好重要的。
16. 最重要係,Amazon雖然同Affirm合作,但冇話exclusive 喎。Amazon嘅作風啦喎,就行內皆知了,你做過佢對家都知。
17. 至於其他Fintech嘢?韓國嘅KaKao Bank,一上市大過晒韓國所有銀行嘅市值添,亦令呀大股東變咗富豪,同啲財閥平起平坐。你諗下,韓國喎,幾不可思議?
18. 香港?有!「咪螞蟻金服」,嗰時上市成功嘅,肯定大過晒所有銀行,分分鐘係全世界最大嘅金融股(而全世界最大嘅銀融股唔係銀行啦下)。
(*)話時話,我好想知道,到底唔同大學甚至唔同科嘅學生,信用額會唔會唔同?拿,醒你呀,拎去做final year project啦。理論上呢,「好似醫科生應該信用額高啲」「你點折墮點包尾做個醫管局非合約都五六七皮啦」。不過我估實際上銀行don’t care,同埋費事你話歧視。不過,「如果見到係唔同大學唔同信用額仲好玩」「我覺得教大應該高啲」。同埋,如果真係。拿,真係醒你呀,認真少少拎嚟做MSc dissertation都得(MPhil PhD就未咁求其),「至少認真過我嗰份」又,我份dissertation真係相當垃圾,但我都don’t care,因為我換得去倫敦結算所實習嘅機會,雖然真係坐嗰邊只係幾日。
(**)呢度示範咩係survivorship bias.冇信用卡又點訂你Patreon呢大哥。「其實可以用Paypal」「但冇信用卡又點有Paypal呢老細」「其實係得的」
(***)有啲人讀經濟就讀死書,以為A同B一係complement 一係substitute,或者兩者之間 0-1。錯,同樣兩樣嘢,唔同情況下,可以係complement亦可以係substitute.例如?你一拖二咪知!「你有本事可以搞到變complement的」「重口味啲嘅,老婆同外婆都得」
==============
一週年!比別人知得多。subscribe now(https://bityl.co/4Y0h)。Ivan Patreon,港美市場評點,專題號外,每日一圖,好文推介。每星期6篇,月費100,已經1900人訂! 畀年費仲有85折,20/40年費VIP 送本人著作一本。
==============
phd dissertation 在 美國在台協會 AIT Facebook 的精選貼文
💕「愛台灣,我的選擇」系列第16發:熱愛台灣詩的美國學者白瑞梅(Amie Parry)
「我在加州內陸地區一個叫做聖伯納迪諾的小城市長大,隨後在聖地牙哥念大學和研究所,並獲得文學博士學位。求學期間我們必須至少選修一門外語,所以我就選了中文。1987年我大學畢業之後,跟朋友來了台灣一趟,在台灣教英文和學中文六個月,接著就自己一個人當起背包客在亞洲四處旅遊。
我本來想要研究中國古典詩詞,後來因為獲得傅爾布萊特獎學金,便又再度回到台灣。當時我在討論詩詞的聚會上認識了幾位現代派詩人,所以我就將研究主題轉而聚焦在台灣60、70和80年代的現代詩。我的博士論文探討的就是,以現代主義來理解現有政治語言中難以理解的現代性。我認為歷史形塑而來的經驗,往往比語言本身還要複雜。
我研究的那些詩作沒有明確的政治性,反而是有很強的實驗性質,並帶著詭譎的神秘感。當時我認識的現代派詩人大多是跟著國民黨飄洋過海來台的外省人,他們經歷過戰爭和顛沛流離,也經歷過劇烈且痛苦的歷史創傷。每個人的經驗都不同,在那個年代,也很難說出口。後來,我寫了一本關於詩的書,並聚焦在一兩位我覺得特別有趣的詩人。我在書中問了一些類似的問題:這些詩作如何幫你思考艱難的議題?
當時的現代詩已經頗有制度,許多詩人都有投稿《現代詩》這份重要的詩刊,有些詩人則是將詩作與戲劇結合。整體而言,台灣的現代詩、表演藝術和文學都發展地如火如荼,也深深吸引了我,但我還未全盤了解。當我完成博士論文時,我便獲得交通大學的教職,讓我對台灣的學術圈感到非常驚艷。而當我出版第一本著作時,我也很訝異能在美國獲獎;我根本不知道自己獲得提名,當時我問授獎單位:「為什麼選擇我的書?」他們表示:「因為書中其中一個章節是以跨國的架構來進行整體論述,妳不是單用西方的理論和東方的詩詞,而是從東西方共同錘煉出嶄新的知識。」
我目前任教於中央大學英美語文學系,除了擔任系主任之外,我也有教授寫作課、文學課和文學文化理論課程。從我1987年第一次來台灣到現在,我覺得台灣人愈來愈能自在地與來自不同地方的人交談,就個人經驗來說,我認為台灣社會愈來愈開放。我第一次來台灣時,經歷了許多台灣社會有趣的發展,也結交了許多朋友,並認識了許多學術圈的同好。我想,這些珍貴的回憶就是呼喚我再度回台的動力;就像是,如果你覺得這個社會充滿生氣和活力,而你也能夠參與其中、做出貢獻,我想這就是像家一樣的感覺吧!」
✨白瑞梅 Amie Parry 現為中央大學英美語文學系 專任教授
💕Why I chose Taiwan #16 – Amie Parry
“I grew up in a small city in inland California called San Bernardino. I went to college and graduate school in San Diego. I got my PhD in literature. We were all expected to learn at least one language, so I did Chinese. I traveled to Taiwan with a friend right after I graduated from college in 1987. We came here to teach English and study Chinese for six months, then I traveled around Asia by myself with a backpack.
I originally wanted to study classical Chinese poetry. I got a Fulbright grant and I came back here. I started going to the poetry nights that were happening at that time. I met some of the modernist poets, and I switched my focus to the modernist poetry of the 60s, 70s, and 80s in Taiwan. I wrote my dissertation on modernism as a way of understanding the parts of modernity that are hard to know in the existing political language that we inherit. I think that experience in historical formation is always more complicated than the language.
These poems are not explicitly political; they're very experimental and strange. At the time, the modernist poets I met were mostly 外省, men who had been drafted and come over with the KMT, so they had experienced war and displacement, and a very intense and traumatic historical moment. People experienced it differently, and at that time, it was a hard thing to talk about. Later, I wrote a book about poetry, but I just focused on one or two poets I find really, really fascinating. And I was asking some of the same kinds of questions: how can these poems help you think about certain topics that are hard to think about?
At that time, Modernist poetry was a kind of an institution already. There was a journal called 現代詩, “Modern Poetry,” a really important journal that most of these poets were published in. Some of them combined poetry and theater. There's just so much going on in Taiwan in terms of poetry and performance and literature. It's just amazing. And I'm very interested in it at all, but I haven't kept up. After I finished my dissertation, I got a job offer at 交大. I thought, wow, there's something really amazing happening intellectually here. When my first book came out, it actually got an award in the U.S., and I was so surprised. I didn't even know it had been nominated. I asked them, ‘Why did you choose my book?’ And they said, because one of the chapters has a transnational of framework for the whole argument, so it wasn't like you used Western theories and Eastern texts, it's like the whole knowledge part is coming out of both places.
I currently teach in the English department at National Central University. I'm the chair and I teach writing classes, literature classes, and literary and cultural theory classes. Since my first visit to Taiwan in 1987, I think people are a little more comfortable talking to people from different places. In my personal interactions, I feel a difference, like a greater openness. Back then, there were so many interesting things happening here, all at one time, and that's the time that I happened to be here. And I made good friends in my personal life and in my intellectual life. And I think those are the things that made me come back: like if you feel that there's something interesting happening and there's some way that you can support it. I guess that's a way of feeling at home.” — Amie Parry
✨Amie Parry is professor of the Department of English at the National Central University
phd dissertation 在 9arm Youtube 的精選貼文
เฮ้อออออออออออออออออ
คลิปเต็ม: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/328128829
ไลฟ์ทุกวันเสาร์ ห้าทุ่มทางทวิชนะ
Facebook : https://www.facebook.com/castby9arm
Twitter : https://www.twitter.com/castby9arm
IG : https://www.instagram.com/castby9arm