Reinventing Workers for the Post-COVID Economy
The nation’s economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic will hinge ( ) to some extent ( ) on how quickly show managers can become electricians ( ), whether taxi drivers can become plumbers ( ), and how many cooks can manage software for a bank.
This is likely to prove especially problematic for millions of low-paid workers in service industries like retailing ( ), hospitality ( ), building maintenance and transportation, which may be permanently impaired ( ) or fundamentally transformed. What will janitors ( ) do if fewer people work in offices? What will waiters do if the urban restaurant ecosystem never recovers its density ( )?
Their prognosis ( ) is bleak ( ). Marcela Escobari, an economist at the Brookings Institution, warns that even if the economy adds jobs as the coronavirus risk fades ( ), “the rebound won’t help the people that have been hurt the most.”
Looking back over 16 years of data, Escobari finds that workers in the occupations ( ) most heavily hit since the spring will have a difficult time reinventing themselves. Taxi drivers, dancers and front-desk clerks have poor track records moving to jobs as, say, registered nurses, pipe layers or instrumentation technicians.
COVID is abruptly ( ) taking out a swath ( ) of jobs that were thought to be comparatively ( ) resilient ( ), in services that require personal contact with customers. And the jolt ( ) has landed squarely on workers with little or no education beyond high school, toiling ( ) in the low-wage service economy.
“The damage to the economy and particularly to workers will probably be longer lasting than we think it is going to be,” said Peter Beard, senior vice president at the Greater Houston Partnership, an economic development group.
What’s more, he said, COVID will intensify underlying ( ) dynamics ( ) that were already transforming ( ) the workplace. Automation ( ), for one, will most likely accelerate ( ) as employers seek to protect their businesses from future pandemics
The challenge is not insurmountable ( ). Yet despite scattered ( ) success stories, moving millions of workers into new occupations remains an enormous ( ) challenge.
“We need a New Deal ( ) for skills,” said Amit Sevak, president of Revature, a company that hires workers, trains them to use digital tools and helps place them in jobs. “President Roosevelt deployed ( ) the massive number of workers unemployed in the Great Depression on projects that created many of the dams ( ) and roads and bridges we have. We need something like that.”
勞工轉型以因應後疫情時代經濟
美國經濟能否從新型冠狀病毒影響下復甦,將在一定程度上取決於表演經理們要多久才能變成電工,計程車司機能否化身為水管工,以及有多少廚師能替銀行管理軟體。
這對零售業、餐旅業、建築維修和運輸業等服務業數百萬低薪工人來說,問題恐怕特別大。這些行業可能受到永久性損害或發生根本性改變。若辦公室裡人變少了,工友要做什麼呢?若都市餐廳生態系統繁盛不再,服務生又該如何?
他們的前景是黯淡的。布魯金斯學會經濟學家Marcela Escobari警告說,即使就業機會隨新型冠狀病毒疫情風險消退而增加,「經濟反彈也幫不了那些受創最重的人」。
Escobari檢視16年來的數據發現,今春以來受衝擊最大的一些職業,勞工將很難自我改造。計程車司機、舞者和櫃檯人員轉行從事護理師、舖管工或儀器技工等工作者十分有限。
新型冠狀病毒突然帶走了一大批原本被認為較不容易永久消失的工作,即需與客戶面對面接觸的服務工作。這一衝擊直接打擊到那些僅受過高中教育、在低薪服務經濟區塊中掙扎的勞工。
經濟發展組織大休士頓商會資深副總裁Peter Beard表示:「經濟、尤其是勞工們受害的時間,可能比我們預期的還要更長。」
他說,更重要的是,新型冠狀病毒疫情將強化已經在改變職場的潛在動力,自動化即為一例,由於雇主力求讓自己的企業未來不受大疫情影響,自動化極可能加速。
這項挑戰並非不能克服。然而,儘管有少數成功的例子,讓數百萬勞工轉業仍是巨大的挑戰。
雇用勞工後培訓他們使用數位工具,並幫他們找到工作的Revature公司總裁Amit Sevak說:「我們需要一項針對職業技能的新政。小羅斯福總統大蕭條時期把大量失業勞工投入工程計畫,興建了我們現在使用的水壩、道路與橋樑。我們需要這樣的東西。」
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post covid economy 在 管碧玲 (kuanbiling) Facebook 的最佳解答
張忠謀對半導體供應鏈在地化的致詞引起矚目,我將全文的翻譯,分享給大家:
張忠謀APEC非正式領袖會議致詞全文:(中文在後)
This Informal Retreat has been called to discuss how Asia-Pacific can collaborate to move through the COVID health crisis, and to accelerate the post-COVID economic recovery. Chinese Taipei will address these two topics specifically.
On COVID-19, Chinese Taipei has had an excellent record so far. With a population of 23 million, over the last year and half, and in spite of a recent surge which has now abated, we have had a total of about fifteen thousand infected cases (.07% of the population), and 763 deaths (3 out of one hundred thousand).
We believe that our experience and know-how gained can help other APEC members. We have been, and continue to be willing to help. We have donated masks and other medical supplies to other APEC members in the past and are ready and willing to share our anti-COVID-19 know-how with you.
At the same time, WE NEED HELP! Our vaccination coverage at present is less than 20%. Although the U.S. and Japan have been generous in donating vaccines to us, and our private institutions have succeeded in procuring ten million doses of vaccines, we still need more vaccines, and need them sooner! Most other APEC members need help as well. We must ask for help from the APEC members that possess and produce more vaccines than they themselves need.
On re-vitalizing Post-COVID economy, Chinese Taipei urges free trade among APEC members and in the world, after giving consideration to vital national security needs.
In the past seven decades, free trade has enabled vibrant growth in most APEC economies. Free trade is merely a way in which each APEC economy contributes its own competitive advantage and every APEC member benefits.
Recently, however, we note with concern the tendency to want self-sufficiency or “on-shoring” of semiconductor chips. We must point out that in the past many decades free trade has greatly helped the advance of semiconductor technology. In turn, the ever greater complexity of the technology has caused the supply chain to go “off-shore”.
It would be highly impractical to try to turn back the clock. If it is tried, cost will go up and technology advance may slow. What may happen is that after hundreds of billions and many years have been spent, the result will still be a not-quite-self-sufficient, and high-cost supply chain.
We do recognize national security concerns, and believe that for security applications, a self-sufficient supply chain within one’s own borders is prudent. However, for the much larger civilian market, a supply chain substantially based on free trade system is by far the best approach.
In summary, on COVID-19, Chinese Taipei can help, is ready and willing to help with its know-how, but also needs more vaccines sooner, along with many other APEC members. On Post-COVID economic re-vitalization, Chinese Taipei urges free trade, after giving consideration to vital national security concerns.
(中文翻譯)
此次非正式領袖會議召開的目的是討論亞太地區應如何合作以度過新型冠狀病毒(COVID-19)疫情危機,並加速疫後經濟復甦。中華台北將就這兩個議題表達看法。
面對新型冠狀病毒(COVID-19)疫情,中華台北迄今維持傑出防疫紀錄。我們有兩千三百萬人口,儘管近期疫情曾一度升溫,但目前業已趨緩,在過去超過一年半的時間中,總確診病例數約為一萬五千例(佔總人口0.07%),其中死亡病例數為763例(約為十萬分之三)。
相信我們在過程中得到的經驗與知識能夠協助其他APEC成員。我們持續地願意提供協助。過去我們曾捐贈口罩與其他醫療物資予其他APEC成員,現在也準備好與你們分享我們抗疫的知識。
同時,我們也需要幫助!目前我們的疫苗注射覆蓋率低於20%。雖然美國與日本已慷慨捐贈疫苗,我們的民間機構也已成功採購一千萬劑,我們仍然需要更多數量的疫苗,而且需要儘快取得!其他多數的APEC成員也需要幫助。我們需要向目前擁有並生產超過他們自身所需疫苗數量的APEC成員尋求協助。
針對疫後經濟復甦,中華台北敦促APEC成員,在考慮重要國家安全需求後,彼此間及與全球進行自由貿易。
在過去70年,自由貿易使多數APEC經濟體蓬勃發展。自由貿易僅是各APEC經濟體貢獻自己的競爭優勢,而其他APEC成員藉此受惠的方法。
然而近來,我們很關切要求「境內」半導體晶片自給自足的趨勢。我們必需指出,過去數十年的自由貿易大幅促進半導體技術發展。因此,越趨複雜的技術致使供應鏈走向「境外」。
試圖讓時光倒流是相當不切實際的,如果嘗試讓時光倒流,不僅成本將會提升以及技術的進步可能放緩。在花費了數千億與許多年的時間之後,結果仍將是無法充分自給自足且成本很高的供應鏈。
我們認同國家安全的顧慮確實存在,也相信針對國安應用,在國境內存有一個能夠自給自足的供應鏈是審慎的作法。然而,針對規模大得許多的民間市場,一個基於自由貿易體系的供應鏈是最好的作法。
總結來說,針對新型冠狀病毒(COVID-19)疫情,中華台北能夠協助,我們也願意、並準備好以自身的知識與經驗提供協助,但也和其他許多APEC成員一樣,需要儘快取得更多疫苗。關於疫後經濟復甦,中華台北敦促在考慮關鍵國家安全需求後,應該採取自由貿易。
post covid economy 在 Lee Hsien Loong Facebook 的最佳解答
Happy to meet the APEC - Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Leaders virtually this evening to discuss how we can combat COVID-19 and accelerate economic recovery together.
I highlighted 3 areas of collaboration for APEC: preparing for the next pandemic, as COVID-19 will not be the last nor the most serious pandemic the world will face; reconnecting our economies and liberalising trade; and cooperating on new growth areas in the digital and green economy.
We can overcome our shared challenges by working closely as a region, so that we all emerge stronger into a better post-COVID-19 future.
Thank you to New Zealand PM Jacinda Ardern for convening this informal APEC Leaders’ Retreat. Look forward to when we can all meet in person again. – LHL
(PMO Video by Alex Qiu and Chiez How)