關於 s&p 500 average return ，我們在網路上蒐集到這些相關的討論、資訊與評價

每次股災崩盤我們很常看到這類統計，例如Barron's 3/7這篇「When Will the Stock Market Recover? The Pain Isn’t Over.」

「1929年以來，美國股市總共發生121次單日漲跌幅超過4.2%，而65個交易日後，股市終究是漲是跌的機率跟丟硬幣沒兩樣 -- 50%隨後S&P500平均下跌14.5%；50%上漲18.1%。」

（ "The data back him up. Since 1929, there have been 121 one-day moves of 4.2% or more, according to John Kolovos, chief technical market strategist at Macro Risk Advisors—and in those instances, the chances of a positive return over the following 65 trading days were no better than a coin flip. Half of the time, the S&P 500 fell with an average drop of 14.5%. The other half, the S&P 500 gained an average of 18.1%."）

這類統計其實是垃圾統計，沒啥參考意義。原因在於這種統計是「利用事實解釋事實」，根本違背科學方法論，其實啥也沒解釋。

每一次大跌後的整體侷限條件狀況、關鍵侷限條件狀況都不同，這些才是真正決定股市長期走勢的真正原因。

那些動不動就以為「股市就是隨機漫步」的論點，反應的只是論者偷懶或無力觀察與思考。

詳細的批評與正確的投資方法我在「效率市場假說（efficient-market-hypothesis）是錯誤的」一文已經闡述過，就不再重複。

我不得不贊同Elon Musk一次：「我也認為人們對新冠狀病毒的恐懼是過度且不必要，而過度防疫的經濟代價恐怕會遠高過我們想像。」

對於投資，我始終抱持與Michael Burry一樣的信念：「無論股市上漲下跌、瘋狂理性，我始終致力於尋找被嚴重低估的機會。」

像我這種每年把所有上市公司瀏覽一兩輪的價值投資者應該早發現：美股這兩三年很難找到價格合適的公司。這也是為何我在2018年中撰文建議可以逐步提高資產配置中現金的比例（https://tinyurl.com/yyutdxsk）。

巴菲特自己手頭現金比例也堪稱史上最高，亦可窺知背後緣由一二。

https://bit.ly/2TC86Ca

"If you don't follow the stock market, you are missing some amazing drama."

[SIX REASONS WHY BURSA COMPOSITE INDEX WILL BREAK 2,000 BY END 2015 BY DR. NAZRI KHAN]

I am going to stick my neck out here and making a gutsy speculation that KLCI will break above 2,000 level, two years from now. Yes, seriously as early as December 2015.

While that might sound crazy (KLCI is still struggling with 1800 this week), let me humbly justify with SIX undisputable reasons why Bursa will hit 2,000 magic numbers.

REASON 1 : Subprime Crisis Is Over. Solid USA & European Economies.

The USA economy is in its best performance since the depths of the financial recession in 2008. Bloomberg consensus expect USA to post solid economic growth of more than 3% through 2016 and 6% unemployment rate by end 2014, the best rate in five years. The worst is also over for Europe. Europe especially the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain) had an extremely severe reaction to the 2008 financial panic due to sovereign debt but as last quarter 2013 their economies are no longer shrinking and in fact are making a modest incremental economic growth since 2008. Both the USA and Europe are Malaysia largest trading partner and represents important sources of demand for goods from every other region. Solid economic recovery in the USA and Europe suggest stronger exports, higher corporate earnings and of course higher Bursa price.

REASON 2 : Average KLCI Annual Gains Since 1977 Is 30%

Look and check this out on Bloomberg, KLCI has easily gained 135% since 2008 and a total of 2015% since 1977 (meaning average of 26% per year). So when you start to look at a 26% price gain per year, and you add in Bursa average of 4% dividends, you are talking about a 30% return average every years. 2000 magic numbers will only represent a cheap 5% gain for KLCI per year from here. Now don’t tell me KLCI hitting 2000 psycho level is a big deal.

REASON 3 : Improved External + Cheap Valuation = More Foreign Inflows.

Fundamentally speaking, the remarkable fact is that even after this incredible 2008-2013 run-up the FBMKLCI index is only selling at 15.5 times estimated 2014 earnings. Reasonable price, at least compared to the super glory time in 1990-1994 where KLCI valuation is 40 times! Remember, I haven’t talk about the foreign inflow which now stand at three years low. S&P 500 companies alone are sitting on USD3 trillion in cash equivalents. Assuming 1% of inflow will inject extra RM100bil per year into Bursa equity. And that could be another reason the market will continue to rise.

REASON 4 : Huge Untapped Liquidity. Millions Of Retailers Are Yet To Jump.

Secondly, only 0.4% of Malaysian are currently actively invested in the market (based on 100,000 active retail investors and 28 million Malaysian population as at Dec 2013). Headlines speak to the fact that as the market advanced, more money is moving back into equities. And that is true. And don’t forget, as at end last year, we have RM326 billion funds invested in unit trust which will plough back into Bursa Malaysia. So given this untapped liquidity, I can easily bet there appears to be an imminent euphoria here in the Malaysia market especially when KLCI broke above 1900 this year.

REASON 5 : Current Bull Is Still Young

2014 should be the sixth year of the bull run which started since 2009. Well, since 1977, the average duration of a Malaysian bull market is 9.8 years, and the average return is 275%. We should understand the bull momentum gradually became stronger as the bull market continued year after year, and normally grow exponentially in the last five years. This bull starting in October 2008 has not even matched that average. It is now only 5.5 years old running with a return of 135%. Meaning we have at least another 4.3 years (till July 2019) and further 140% upside to whack

REASON 6 : Retail Traders Are Roaring

Last but not least, I am impressed by looking at the tiger attitude of retail traders especially the younger ones. Out of nowhere, I see thousands of retail investors from colourful background (engineers, teachers, MLM product owners to idle housewives) fully embraced 2013 bull market, ignoring any threat from the hottest 2013 Malaysia general election and chasing stocks like there is no tomorrow. Trading gallery now is full to the brim and training seminar is packed like a world class soccer match. Buying into speculatively unknown and underperforming names such as Tiger, Palette, Nicorp, Ingenco, Winsun, AMedia & Luster. This strong retail trend should signal more good times to come. I just can’t wait for the last bull stage in 2019 where taxi drivers, mamak staller and even house maids to jump and buy Iris, Sumatec and KNM.

I Rest My Case.

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Affin Long Term View : Runaway Bull 2015-2016, Euphoria Bull 2017-2018, Buying Climax & Next Crash 2019-2020

Long Term Strategy : Buy Any Local Bluechips Warrants OR Buy MSCI Malaysia ETF Long Term Options (EWM), Hold Five Years

Affin Low Risk Favourites (Watch For 5 Year Warrants If Available) :

TENAGA (Price RM11.85)
TM (Price RM5.55)
SKPETRO (Price RM4.51)
AIRPORTS (Price RM8.11)
BIMB (Price RM4.29)
TAKAFUL (Price RM10.26)
BURSA (Price RM7.79)
POS (Price RM5.55)
QL RESOURCES (Price RM2.98)
BRAHIM (Price RM2.30)

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