今晚百富李書沸，以及麥格理分析員，分別出了微信及新報告回應。但我想講，涉事現場講緊有三、四十位分析員或同行，除了幾個拍下片，其他就扮望下公司派的筆記，或者不聞不問食花生睇騷。冇人為Timothy講說話，甚至緩和氣氛，更談不上集體離場。
誠如網友CHAN YEE MAN話齋，「如果係十幾年前咁做，一定犯眾憎，場內最少半數人拉隊走，宜家香港都沾染大陸文化，其他人心諗，X你!走啦!唔好阻住我哋開會。」
今日係Timothy被侵犯，不久的將來就會係在場的另一位。先自閹，然後，就是game over。
【麥格理分析員反擊】
繼續跟進百富環球（327）事件....分析員Timothy Lam以 《Asked to leave the meeting》為題...撰寫該公司最新研究報告... 但卻把百富環球目標價上調，由6.3元升至6.4元。。。
只留下一句：
／／We believe all analysts should be able to attend analyst briefing, regardless of their view on the company／／
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【報告如下】
《Asked to leave the meeting》（譯：被要求離開會議）
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｛EVENT}
PAX Global held an analyst briefing on Aug 10. Before the meeting started, we were asked by the company’s CFO to leave the meeting room. We believe all analysts should be able to attend analyst briefing, regardless of their view on the company.
PAX’s 1H16 revenue met our expectation, +20% YoY on faster growth for its overseas segment. GPM was 43.6%, 670bps above our forecasts, on rise in overseas orders and faster cost reduction. We believe PAX’s 43.6% GPM achieved in 1H16 is unsustainable, as China faces price-driven competition for the mid to low end segment, and as overseas competition intensifies.
PAX reported a meaningful rise in trade receivables in 1H16, reaching HK$1.4bn, +28% from Dec 15 or +49% from Jun 15, as the company enters into new geographical segments. T/R over 180 days reached HK$329m at the end of Jun 16 (from HK$123m at Dec 15).
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｛IMPACT｝
Cross-read from industry: 1) One of PAX’s key overseas competitors, Ingenico, reported a 27% YoY drop in LATAM demand in 2Q16, and a bottleneck among distributors for EMV migration in North America; 2) Brazil’s Cielo, one of the key mPOS terminal vendor in Brazil, saw POS terminals demand flat at 2.07m in 2Q16; 3) Verifone announced a cut in full year guidance by 17% in June 2016, and sees ASP pressure for its Asia and LATAM markets.
We are concerned about the sharp rise in receivables over 180 days to HK$329m, as the company expands rapidly into overseas markets.
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{Earnings and target price revision}
We are revising our model to factor in faster overseas growth and cut our China FY16 growth forecast to 6% YoY (from 13%). Our 2016/17/18E EPS are revised up by 6%/1%/1% to HK$0.55/HK$0.58/HK$0.63 respectively.
Our new target price at 11X 2017E PER equates to HK$6.40 (from HK$6.30), on slightly more optimistic earnings forecast.
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{Price catalyst}
12-month price target: HK$6.40 based on a PER methodology.
Catalyst: 1) price-driven competition may further affect profitability of China market; 2) any delay in US EMV certification for new terminal orders; 3) risks related to rising trade receivables.
{Action and recommendation}
We remain cautious on PAX and see slower industry growth to affect margins on e-payment terminal vendors. While the company has managed to maintain sales momentum in the overseas market in 1H16, we believe PAX faces rising competitive pressure from both Verifone and Ingenico overseas.
PAX is ranked in the 2nd Quartile on Macquarie’s MGRS.
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