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〈美股盤後〉台積電ADR領漲費半飆近5% 標普創歷史新高

週五 (26 日) 疫苗接種樂觀進展，美股因強勁的復甦希望而反彈，長榮貨輪持續擱淺在蘇伊士運河，Fed 鬆綁銀行配息、庫藏股限制，能源、金融股和科技股領漲，道瓊收紅逾 450 點，標普創歷史新高，台積電 ADR 領軍下，費半飆漲近 5%。

最近幾週，隨著殖利率上升和高估值擔憂打擊著科技股，市場漲勢有所趨緩，道瓊和標普本週溫和上揚，漲幅分別為 1.4% 和 1.6%。那指本週下跌 0.6%。

全球新冠肺炎 (COVID-19) 疫情持續發燒，截稿前，據美國約翰霍普金斯大學 (Johns Hopkins University) 即時統計，全球確診數已飆破 1.25 億例，死亡數突破 276 萬例，美國累計確診超過 3013 萬例，累計死亡數超過 54.7 萬。

歐盟和英國之間的疫苗供應協議可能最早在周六宣布。美國 CDC 主任警告，隨著美國新增病例較上週增加 7%，美國可能爆發新一波疫情大流行，呼籲各州維持安全防疫措施。


週五 (26 日) 美股四大指數表現：

美股道瓊指數上漲 453.40 點，或 1.39%，收 33,072.88 點。
標普 500 指數上漲 65.02 點，或 1.66%，收 3,974.54 點。
那斯達克指數上漲 161.04 點，或 1.24%，收 13,138.73 點。
費城半導體指數上漲 146.40 點，或 4.95%，收 3,106.28 點。
標普 11 大板塊僅通訊服務收黑，能源、資訊科技和材料板塊領漲。

焦點個股

科技五大天王僅 Alphabet 收黑。蘋果 (AAPL-US) 上漲 0.51%；臉書 (FB-US) 上漲 1.54%；Alphabet (GOOGL-US) 下跌 0.38%；亞馬遜 (AMZN-US) 上漲 0.19%；微軟 (MSFT-US) 上漲 1.78%。

道瓊成分股多收高。思科 (CSCO-US) 上漲 4.08%；Nike (NKE-US) 上漲 3.38%；安進 (AMGN-US) 上漲 2.68%；波音 (BA-US) 下跌 0.94%；美國運通 (AXP-US) 上漲 1.02%。

費半成分股漲跌互見。應用材料 (AMAT-US) 暴漲 7.45%；美光 (MU-US) 上漲 4.64%；AMD (AMD-US) 上漲 1.56%；英特爾 (INTC-US) 上漲 4.60%；NVIDIA (NVDA-US) 上漲 2.43%；高通 (QCOM-US) 上漲 4.49%。

台股 ADR 僅中華電信收黑。台積電 ADR (TSM-US) 大漲 5.53%；日月光 ADR (ASX-US) 上漲 4.19%；聯電 ADR (UMC-US) 上漲 3.76%；中華電信 ADR (CHT-US) 下跌 0.18%。

個股消息

由於全球半導體短缺，蔚來汽車將暫停中國合肥廠電動汽車的生產 5 天。蔚來 (NIO-US) 下跌 4.77%。

特斯拉 (TSLA-US) 下跌 3.39%。特斯拉 CEO 馬斯克週五推文表示，特斯拉可能成為超越蘋果的最大公司。

美國監管威脅之下，中概股面臨下市恐慌，高盛週五掛出 5000 萬股的騰訊音樂賣單、3200 萬股唯品會賣單，以及 1000 萬股百度賣單，促使這些中概股盤中急跌。

終場騰訊音樂 (TME-US) 收黑 1.23%；百度 (BIDU-US) 回漲 1.97%；唯品會 (VIPS-US) 收跌 2.36%。

Fed 允許銀行在 6 月 30 日起恢復正常股息支付和股票回購。富國銀行 (WFC-US) 上漲 1.20%；摩根大通 (JPM-US) 上漲 1.67%；花旗 (C-US) 上漲 1.81%。

共享辦公室服務業者 WeWork 週五同意與空白支票公司 BowX Acquisition 合併，希望透過借殼方式實現上市目標，估值達 90 億美元。BowX Acquisition (BOWX-US) 暴漲 20.29%。

道瓊尾盤最後 8 分鐘內上漲了 150 點以上，蘋果功不可沒。蘋果 (AAPL-US) 收紅 0.51% 至每股 121.21 美元。外媒報導，蘋果計畫推出強固型 Apple Watch 以迎合極限運動人士的需求。

經濟數據

美國 2 月個人支出月增率報 - 1.0％，預期 - 0.6%，前值 2.4%
美國 2 月批發庫存月增率報 0.5％，前值 1.3%
美國 2 月 PCE 指數年增率報 1.6％，預期 1.5%，前值自 1.5% 下調至 1.4%
美國 2 月核心 PCE 指數年增率報 1.4％，預期 1.6%，前值 1.5%
華爾街分析

摩根士丹利稱：「我們預計，今年 3 月通過的新紓困案將再次提高儲蓄率，為美國家庭正在形成的強大購買力助一臂之力，隨著經濟重新開放，美國家庭購買力蓄勢待發，預測核心個人消費支出在今年 4 月和 5 月達到峰值，接近 2.6%。」

Northern Trust 首席分析師 Carl Tannenbaum 稱：「近幾個月來，我們很難抑制對美國經濟增長的預期。」

State Street global Markets 高級全球宏觀策略師 Marvin Loh 說：「市場真正擔心隨著經濟過熱，聯準會可能被迫改變主意，突然緊縮政策。」

針對近期類股輪動，Oppenheimer 資產管理首席投資策略師 John Stoltzfus 表示：「與其說這是對科技股的拋售，不如說是更廣泛的同時偏好成長股和價值股。」

Raymond James 首席投資長 Larry Adam 表示：「最近市場感覺更像是一種折磨，隨著我們進入復甦的第二年，這種波動可能會變得更常見。在此時期，像大多數時期一樣，不會直線向前，投資者應預料到市場將出現疲軟，並在這種情況出現時加以利用。」

https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/4620231?exp=a

【全球股市觀察站】2021-03-26(美國時間)
接收投資重要資訊，阿斯匹靈官方的Telegram頻道-「阿斯匹靈的理財航路」
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https://www.instagram.com/aspirin_grandline/?hl=zh-tw

I sincerely hope I am wrong | Lee Yee

I know very little about American issues. In the past, I even thought that no matter which party wins the presidential election, there would be no significant difference under the Constitution and the existing system. However, it is different this time. This US presidential election not only involves the interests of the Americans but also concerns the future political situation of the world, especially for China and Hong Kong.

The state of society tearing as a result of this presidential election is far beyond any from the past, almost to the point of a civil war. As far as the domestic situation in the US is concerned, it is not a dispute between supporting Trump or supporting Biden, but a fight between support for Trump and opposition to Trump. The topics of discussion are 1) epidemic prevention and control measures, 2) violence and disorder due to the Black Lives Matter protests, and 3) economy. Arguments from both standpoints are too numerous to detail and many are reasonable with solid judgment. It is very difficult to explain clearly in this short article. I will only discuss the history and current situation of Sino-US relations.

The most important timeline in the history of the modern relations between China and the US is after WWII during the Chinese Civil War between the Kuomintang (KMT)-led government of the Republic of China and the Communist Party of China (CPC). At that time, the 33rd president of the US and leader of the Democratic Party, Harry S. Truman pursued a policy of appeasement to the CPC and actively advocated negotiations between the KMT and the CPC. During the Chinese Civil War, it was apparent that he was pro-communist and made the communist military stronger. The KMT was defeated for internal reasons but the US inclination was key. After the KMT government retreated to Taiwan, in January 1950, President Truman issued a statement that the US would not intervene with the situation in China and declared that the island groups of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, Matsu and some minor islands were not within the scope of the US military. The US Democratic Party allowed mainland China to fall into the hands of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Later, Chiang Kai-shek commissioned General Ho Shai-lai to Tokyo to meet with Douglas MacArthur, the American general who administered postwar Japan during the Allied occupation and oversaw the occupation, rebuilding and democratization of Japan. The visit aimed to win the support of General MacArthur and was ultimately able to save Taiwan.

Another important page in the history of the Sino-US relations was the diplomatic breakthrough of Republican US President Richard Nixon in 1971. A military conflict broke out in the previous year at the border of China and the then Soviet Union. The Soviet Union intended to deploy nuclear weapons to perform a so-called “surgical removal operation” on China’s nuclear base. However, it was halted when it probed the US for reactions. The US stated that if the Soviet Union employed nuclear weapons, it would undoubtedly challenge the US nuclear balance policy. After that, when the US collaborated with China to strategically deal with the superpower Soviet Union, the US did not abandon Taiwan. Not until 1979 when Jimmy Carter, the 39th president of the US and a democrat, established diplomatic relations with the CCP that the US severed ties with Taiwan. The incident triggered a global trend to set up diplomatic relations with the CCP, which enabled the CCP to steady a firm holding in the international community.

The third important aspect in the history of the Sino-US relations was in 2000, under Bill Clinton’s administration, China was given entry into the WTO (World Trade Organization) and granted a most favored nation (MFN) status. Since then, it developed its foothold as an international manufacturer in the global market. Furthermore, its economy took off through intellectual property theft, failure to commit to the promise of its 2001 accession to the WTO and market dominance by means of authoritarian capitalism. As China’s economic development fully penetrates into the Western world, on the one hand, it takes advantage of the multinational companies invested in China to control the capital markets of the US and the West. On the other hand, it invests heavily in its grand propaganda to control overseas Chinese media and even Western mainstream media.

Every election candidate receives donations from multinational companies. Not to mention 90% of the mainstream media in the US are owned or operated by these Democratic Party’s donors. Therefore, they turn a blind eye to the elephant in the room and injudiciously embrace the CCP regime that has infiltrated the American society and continuously infringed on human rights at home. In addition to the interest considerations, the media of course also has the leftist ideology permeated in Western academia and journalism. I will elaborate on this topic at another time.

Finally, there is Trump who is not swayed by the donors of multinational corporations because he himself does not lack money nor is he afraid to offend most of the leftist media. He sometimes speaks without thinking but he never seeks the so-called “political correctness,” and basically does what he says he would. People who stand on the moral high ground with the spirit of great love would shake their heads upon his words and actions. Regardless, only a person like Trump can start to contain the power that infiltrated the US and the Western world, and support the democracy of Taiwan and Hong Kong’s campaign for autonomy.

Currently, anti-China is the general social conscience in the US. Biden’s China policy seems to align with that of Trump’s. Biden even defined the CCP’s handling of Xinjiang as an “ethnic genocide.” However, is there really no difference between the two parties? Recall that when Clinton was running for the presidency, he said that he opposed the Republican government’s annual review of the US MFN status for China. He believed it should not be granted but after he took office, he made China’s MFN status permanent and sent China to the WTO.

As the Democratic Party controls Wall Street and mainstream media, I am not optimistic about Trump in this election. Even so, I really hope from my brain to my heart that I am wrong.

〈美股盤後〉紐約州下達居家防疫令+油價挫 道瓊跌逾900點 週跌幅金融海嘯來最慘

美股週五 (20 日) 開高走低，道瓊工業指數 2 萬點整數關卡再失守，標普 500 指數跌到三年低點，儘管各國救市措施連發，紐約州升級居家避疫命令仍嚇壞投資人，油價走勢反轉更加深賣壓。三大指數本週都寫下 2008 年金融海嘯以來最大跌幅。

造成美股週五賣壓沉重的因素包括紐約州升級居家防疫命令、油價走勢反轉，和美元近來的強勁升勢。儘管美國聯準會（Fed）週五宣布新的貨幣刺激措施，將擴大資產收購計畫，納入市政債券，卻未緩解投資人的擔憂。
紐約已成為全美疫情最嚴峻地區，市長 Bill de Blasio 週五（２０日）說，截至美東 20 日上午 10 點，確診人數攀升到 5151 例，佔全美確診數近三分之一，「我們處於疫情危機的中心」。紐約市因病毒死亡的人數來到２９例。

紐約州州長庫莫 (Andrew Cuomo) 當天稍早 升級強制性措施，繼限制州內非必要企業 75% 員工必須居家上班後，如今要求州內「所有」非必要企業員工必須全數在家上班，行政禁令將於本週日 (22 日) 後生效。加州州長紐森已在週四晚間頒布居家令，若無特許、生活與醫療需求之必要，全州 4,000 萬居民不得外出。
油價週五走勢翻轉，迫使投資人拋售其他資產。油價本週跌幅擴大到 29%，各國相繼祭出旅行禁令，如今更進一步要求民眾盡可能待在家中的防疫措施。美國 10 年期公債殖利率再次回落到 1% 以下，美元變動不大，但前八個交易日累計勁升逾 8%。
武漢肺炎疫情對經濟的衝擊愈來愈令人擔憂，高盛警告，美國第二季 GDP 或許將萎縮 24%，歐盟則警告今年可能陷入和 2009 年一樣嚴峻的經濟衰退。
美股四大指數全數收黑，道瓊下挫 913 點，主要指數本週都寫下金融海嘯以來最慘烈的跌勢，道瓊一週來跌逾 17%，為 2008 年 10 月來最大單周跌幅，標普本週跌 15%，那斯達克本周跌約 13%。從 2 月歷史高點算起，道瓊已經回跌 35%，標普回跌 32.1%。
週五 (20 日) 美股四大指數表現：
▪ 美股道瓊指數下跌 913.21 點，或 4.55%，收 19,173.98 點。
▪ 標普 500 指數下跌 104.47 點，或 4.34%，收 2,304.92 點。
▪ 那斯達克指數下跌 271.03 點，或 3.79 %，收 6,879.52 點。
▪ 費城半導體指數下跌 42.68 點，或 3.18%，收 1,298.54 點。

科技五大天王全面下挫：蘋果 (AAPL-US) 下跌 6.35%，盤中市值一度跌破 1 兆美元，至收盤時市值 1.003 兆美元；臉書 (FB-US) 下跌 2.22%；Alphabet (GOOGL-US) 下跌 3.91%；亞馬遜 (AMZN-US) 下跌 1.85%；微軟 (MSFT-US) 下跌 3.76%。
道瓊 30 檔成分股幾乎全收黑：迪士尼 (DIS-US) 、3M (MMM-US) 重挫逾 9 %；可口可樂 (KO-US) 挫跌 8.44%；雪佛龍 (CVX-US) 上漲 3.43%。
費半成分股跌多漲少。科磊 (KLAC-US) 下跌 2.07%；高通 (MU-US) 跌 6.29%；應用材料 (AMAT-US) 跌 5.47%；NVIDIA (NVDA-US) 跌 3.39%。MKS Instruments (MKSI-US) 上漲 3.72%；ASML(ASML-US) 漲 0.97%；博通 (AVGO-US) 漲 0.53%。
台股 ADR 上漲：台積電 ADR (TSM-US) 上漲 1.46%；日月光 ADR (ASX-US) 上漲 2.41%；聯電 ADR (UMC-US) 漲 0.45%；中華電信 ADR (CHT-US) 上漲 0.2%。
焦點個股
迪士尼 (DIS-US) 收盤跌 9.49%，報每股 85.98 美元。根據迪士尼向美國證管會 (SEC) 提交的文件，公司短期到中期展望將因防疫措施受影響，且預料疫情將改變消費者行為，導致業務受到更進一步的衝擊。
蘋果 (AAPL-US) 收盤跌逾 6%，報每股 229.24 美元。蘋果官網針對部分產品頒佈限購令，即日起從 iPhone 11 系列到 iPhone 8、新款 iPad Pro 皆適用每人限購兩部的禁令，新款 MacBook Air 和 Mac mini 一人則限購五台，限購令涵蓋範圍包含大中華區、北美以及歐洲地區。
經濟數據
▪ 美國 2 月成屋銷售年化月增率報 6.5%，預估 1.1%，前值 - 1.3%
▪ 美國 2 月成屋銷售年率報 577 萬戶，創 2007 年以來最高水平，預估 552 萬戶，前值 546 萬戶
華爾街分析
雖然各國政府繼出發現金等財政刺激措施，Fed 在內多國央行刺激措施連發，仍無法提振投資人士氣。State Street Global Markets 全球總體策略師 Marvin Loh 說：「市場無法馬上療傷止血。」
Robert W. Baird 投資策略師 Willie Delwiche 說：「股市還在試圖釐清經濟會有多糟，限制全州民眾移動是相當負面的消息，這會嚴重影響很多經濟活動和很多公司。」
美國參院提出約 1 兆美元刺激方案，包含發放現金給美國民眾，此計畫預料在未來幾天交付國會表決。LPL Financial in Charlotte 資深市場策略師 Ryan Detrick 說：「市場顯然高度期待財政刺激計畫。市場行情將繼續劇烈波動，直到刺激方案的規模有比較清晰的輪廓。」

https://m.cnyes.com/news/id/4455310

【全球股市觀察站】2020-03-20（美國時間)
接收投資重要資訊，
阿斯匹靈官方的Telegram頻道-「阿斯匹靈的理財航路」
https://t.me/stock_aspirin
阿斯匹靈新書
https://pse.is/JALLK
阿斯匹靈實戰文章
https://scantrader.com/u/9769/service
阿斯匹靈IG
https://www.instagram.com/aspirin_grandline/?hl=zh-tw