The biggest danger that can befall us | Lee Yee
The debate around the pan-democrats’ leaving or staying is heated. What I am concerned about is the thinking during this debate. Perhaps the process is more important than the result.
I quoted from Mao in last week’s article: “We must support whatever the enemy opposes, and we must oppose whatever the enemy supports.” This is a common way of thinking, whether among the Chinese and Hong Kong Communists, Hong Kong pro-democracy camps, young protesters, and even certain political commentators. They often use this line of thinking to judge and justify their words and actions.
My article sparked discussion on LIHKG, with the focus on whether we should act in the opposite direction as the “enemy”. Some think that I was mainly targeting and reprimanding the LIHKG community, because many of them oppose certain words and actions based very simply on whether “the CCP is the happiest”. Others pointed out that YouTube KOLs mention “the CCP is the happiest” like a broken record.
Days ago, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian said, “Some U.S. politicians suppress China because they are afraid of China’s development. The harder they suppress, the more it proves China’s success, and the more it shows that China did it right.”
Luo Huining, director of the Liaison Office of the Central People’s Government, said in response to the sanctions imposed by the United States, “This shows exactly how I did all the right things for my country, for Hong Kong.”
Alvin Yeung said in an interview a few days ago, “The Civic Party was the DQ (disqualification) champion, four out of six of our candidates were disqualified, and three out of our four incumbent lawmakers were disqualified. This proves that the regime does not like what we have done.”
A commentator said, “The CCP and Hong Kong Communists wish to see that we split, therefore we must do the opposite, avoid splitting.”
Why is it that whatever the enemy opposes must be right, and whenever the enemy is happy it must be wrong? What is the logic behind right and wrong? The pro-Communists have discussed both options for the pan-democrats, does it mean neither should be done?
To do the opposite, the opposite must be justified. Only a lazy person with dependent thinking will oppose for the sake of opposing.
Whatever we do should be backed by our own principles and considerations, and not to base it on whether it makes the enemy happy or not to choose and judge words and actions. If being DQ’d means it was right, then does not being DQ’d mean it was wrong? Should there be a split between political parties, it should be one on the issues of principle. “Harmony” that reconciles but disregards principles is not desirable.
The CCP’s usual propaganda: China’s 1.4 billion people, including Hong Kong’s compatriots, support the “return”; 1.4 billion people, including Taiwan compatriots, oppose Taiwan’s independence. The thing is, the future of Hong Kong or Taiwan hugely impact Hongkongers and Taiwanese, but have very little to do with the interest of the 1.4 billion people. The Québec independence referendum only asked the Québec people to vote, and not all Canadians; the Scotland independence referendum only sought votes in Scotland. By the same logic, whether the pan-democrats accept the appointment to extend their tenures or not, only the opinions of the pro-democracy voters should be considered. Including the pro-Beijing voters is the equivalent of including 1.4 billion people into deciding for the future of Hong Kong and Taiwan.
Before the implementation of the national security law, Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute (PORI) conducted a public opinion survey on June 15-18 regarding the law. The results showed that the majority of Hongkongers opposed the law. However, a survey conducted by Hong Kong Research Association on July 2-5 showed that 66% of Hongkongers supported the implementation of the law, because the question asked was not whether to support the national security law, but whether it should be included in Annex III of the Basic Law. Clearly, the latter survey had a stance around which the question was designed. This sort of guiding survey is skewed.
Regarding the survey about the extension of the Legislative Council, it should first be asked whether the decision to extend for no less than a year is accepted, then within the forced extension of the Legislative Council, the options of staying or leaving en masse. In addition, the option of a small number to accept the appointment while the majority does not. If there is first the stance, then it is no different from a pro-Communist survey.
In 1946, American diplomat George Kennan sent a long telegram from Moscow, which launched the cold war between the United States and the Soviet Union. The renowned diplomat offered a word of caution to the American policymakers: “After all, the greatest danger that can befall us in coping with this problem of Soviet communism, is that we shall allow ourselves to become like those with whom we are copying.”
The various aforementioned thinking has just entered the realm where “biggest danger that can befall us”, as warned by Kennan.
taiwan national security survey 在 Focus Taiwan Facebook 的最佳解答
More than half of the people in Taiwan support the recent establishment of an office to assist Hong Kongers affected by the new national security law imposed by Beijing on the territory, a survey released by the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) on Thursday showed.
https://focustaiwan.tw/cross-strait/202008060020
taiwan national security survey 在 蔡依橙的閱讀筆記 Facebook 的最佳解答
狀況比想像中嚴峻一些,我們都該一起加油,讓更多人認識真實的台灣狀況。
我們有不錯的國防,能單獨抵擋中國侵略,我們已經嵌入以美國為首的世界貿易秩序,現實來說,我們加入美日連線才是最安全策略。
一起努力!
「約45%的人認為台灣「不應該」加強與美日的合作來對抗中國;有近70%的人對台灣國防沒有信心,認為中國打來時國軍沒有能力抵禦;近一半的人認為兩岸未來可能走向統一;超過一半的人認為應該加強與中國的經貿合作。
種種數據都反應了民眾對於國際現實掌握不足,對於自身國防軍力也缺乏客觀的認識,整體對外傳達出來的訊息就是「台灣人不介意和中國統一,而且我們沒有打算保護自己」。」
【杜克大學╳政大,台灣國家安全調查】
(update:完整問卷結果見文後)
比起朋友的舅舅的布魯斯眾議員提建交法案,這個由美國杜克大學亞太安全研究中心委託政大選舉研究中心所執行的「台灣國家安全調查」(Taiwan National Security Survey, TNSS)結果更值得需要大家的關注。此調查計畫主要由美國杜克大學主持,在今年1月3日到7日之間,針對1120位有效樣本進行政治意向調查。
老實說,這個結果讓真的讓人開心不起來。
觀測站經營一年多以來,原本的初衷是透過報導美國國會的台灣相關法案,讓台灣人知道其他國家的policy maker(政策制定者)是怎麼看待台灣的,希望能夠呈現不同於島媒的另外一種觀點。但隨著美中對抗情勢在2018年開始不斷升級,夾在兩強之中的台灣,被迫上場成為這場新冷戰中的一角。了解當前美中台局勢就再也不僅僅只是為了得到另一種觀點而已,而是為了追求與自身相關更迫切的戰略需求。
還記得以前和人討論台灣前途該何去何從時,總是常常被以「不是我們說了算,要看國際情勢」敷衍帶過。現在,好不容易國際風向難得地給了台灣一個開創新局的機會,且我們的一舉一動也有足夠的影響,能為這個新局帶來改變。然而此刻望向島內,看到的卻是選擇集體與國際斷線,耽溺於一則又一則燃燒迅速的新聞話題,且甘於被其消耗的人民。
這份民調蒐集的時間,剛好是在1月2日習近平發表對台談話之後,以及包括蔡英文等各部會都「撿到槍」強勢回應中國「九二共識就是一國兩制」論述的高峰期。然而從結果數據來看,儘管蔡英文聲勢突然由黑翻紅,但對於2020總統大選民眾的支持意向,以及整體台灣人對於自身與國家認同,影響不若預期。
其中,有幾個結果讓觀測站一直放在心上,如:約45%的人認為台灣「不應該」加強與美日的合作來對抗中國;有近70%的人對台灣國防沒有信心,認為中國打來時國軍沒有能力抵禦;近一半的人認為兩岸未來可能走向統一;超過一半的人認為應該加強與中國的經貿合作。
種種數據都反應了民眾對於國際現實掌握不足,對於自身國防軍力也缺乏客觀的認識,整體對外傳達出來的訊息就是「台灣人不介意和中國統一,而且我們沒有打算保護自己」。
如果你是美國、日本的決策者,看到這樣結果你會怎麼想?你會如何調整對台策略?
今天分享這個並非要洩大家的氣,相反地,我認為在以這份民調為台灣人認知行為參考的前提下,觀測站目前還能擁有3萬粉絲,聚集著一群關心國際事務,願意為台灣做些甚麼的人(去年在觀測站po文宣傳FAPA的國會倡議團之後,真的有人來報名,最後和我們一起衝國會山莊了),有時候寫了長長的文章也會有不少人願意看以及加入討論,這些都是很令人欣慰的一件事。
只是我們顯然還做得不夠。
2019年真的是很關鍵的一年,除了是台灣、美國總統選舉的前哨,更是《台灣關係法》40週年。自去年《台灣旅行法》通過之後,有愈來愈多要求重新審視美國「過時的一中政策」的聲音浮現。在接下來的一年,應該可以期待台美雙方有更多的動作,如果這個對的風向繼續吹的話。
要注意,這個風向不只是國際風向,還包括台灣自己的民意風向。如同前面說的,台灣在這個已逐漸成形的新冷戰局勢中,扮演的不是一個被動的角色,台灣選擇加入哪個陣營,會對整體有關鍵性的影響。台灣若非如此重要,去年1124選舉也不會引來國際媒體高度關注及解讀。
觀測站會持續關注這些動態發展,但社群媒體上的訊息擴散因演算法機制有其極限,所以,希望大家除了按讚和分享之外,也能夠主動和自己身邊的親朋好友聊聊這些話題,一對一的對話通常要比在社群媒體上發文來得更直接有效。千萬不要害怕和家人朋友們聊政治!
每個人對議題的立場態度或許不盡相同,但至少我們在做出選擇前,應該知道我們選擇的是什麼。
▍關於這份民調
這個研究計劃係由杜克政治系牛銘實教授主持。第一波資料在2002年就開始了,內容主要是關於兩岸關係以及重大政治議題的民意調查,目前已有非常多的學術期刊文章以及國際媒體社論文章都引用這個調查資料(例如這篇對於「現狀」的描述:https://bit.ly/2TTYcsC)。
➡️ 此次完整調查結果:http://bit.ly/2HiK5vw
➡️ 歷年調查結果可以在此取得:http://bit.ly/2sDLQcR