本院最新經濟情勢報告今日出爐🍞,展望2021年,本院經濟所周雨田兼任研究員表示,「臺灣經濟內溫外熱,景氣將持續增溫」🔥預估全年實質經濟成長率GDP 5.05%
昨(27)日臺灣甫降回二級警戒⚠️。報告中也指出,6月三級警戒期間,零售業營業額年減13.26%,其中百貨公司、布疋及服飾品衰退近六成,餐飲業營業額則較去年同期驟降39.94%,衝擊我國民生產業,導致經濟活動低迷。但是,疫情若逐漸受控制,配合政府規畫振興措施,以及外送電子商務無接觸發展,下半年預計將出現疫情改善緩解後的消費反彈。
此外,今年上半年平均失業率為3.93%,惟時逢畢業潮與疫情演變效應,下半年失業情況仍不樂觀,預期2021年失業率約為3.95%。
不過,疫情也促進居家辦公、上課及企業數位化發展🎧,電子產品與資訊通信產品三角貿易動能強勁,傳產貨品受主要國家擴大基礎建設推升出口需求,而出口引申需求進一步帶動進口。世界主要經濟體大規模施打疫苗,將大幅推升全球消費動能與貿易量。
展望下半年,仍有幾點需要注意⚠️。周雨田表示,全球疫情變化莫測,疫苗接種普及程度不均,仍將牽動國內民生經濟,產業亦面臨氣候變遷影響缺水、缺電之風險,以及全球塞港、缺櫃、運價高漲的問題。除此之外,地緣政治風險持續,且須注意金融市場風險升高,美國寬鬆貨幣政策的緊縮對全球市場的震盪及長期通貨膨脹。
🔴完整報告:https://reurl.cc/9r9xzV
#經濟預測 #降級 #防疫不鬆懈 #繼續加油
In the first half of 2021, countries around the world made significant progress in vaccinating their respective populations against Covid-19 and consequently, European and American countries relaxed domestic controls which has started driving global market demand and pushing the world economy towards recovery. Benefiting from proliferation of emerging technology applications and contactless businesses, Taiwan's import and export trade continued to grow. The real GDP growth rate in the first quarter reached 8.92%. The epidemic broke out in mid-May, and the government raised the level of alert. Looking forward to the second half of the year, the government is actively promoting vaccination in order to effectively control the epidemic and support the growth momentum of consumption and foreign trade. The projected real economic growth rate for 2021 has been revised to 5.05%.
#2021TaiwanEconomicForecast
同時也有1部Youtube影片,追蹤數超過83萬的網紅serpentza,也在其Youtube影片中提到,It's the rest of the world's fault, we need to work with China..... NOT! The Chinese government has very successfully tricked the world into looking a...
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technology and the american economy 在 利世民 Facebook 的最佳解答
上星期心血來潮有個諗法:「不如請大家分享嘅自己想睇但又無時間睇嘅書。」
點解咁做?一來,係因為我想更深入咁認識呢度嘅朋友。二來,我亦想借呢個機會,擴闊下自己嘅眼界。
最終,我執咗十七本書;其中十三本係 Patreon 會員提名,另外有四本係我自己嘅推介。希望 2021 嘅上半年,可以寫起晒以下呢十七本書嘅精讀掫要同評論,同 Patreon 嘅會員分享。
加入 Room 101 by 利世民
https://www.patreon.com/join/LeeSimon/checkout?rid=6507958
=== 我 是 分 隔 線 = = =
【#1|Benoit Mandelbrot, The (MIs)Behavior of Markets 】 點解市場咁唔穩定,不可測?當一個系統裡面有好多互為因果嘅關係,其實好自然就係唔穩定同不可測。知道咗喇,咁又點呢?相信大家最想知嘅答案係:「假如明知市場嘅特點,又可以點樣征服市場?最低限度,點樣先至唔會轟烈陣亡?」最後,雖然多數人見到呢個題目都會諗到財經金融,但其實一理通,百理明,任何社會現象背後嘅演變軌跡,亦大同小異。
【#2 |Timothy Brook, Great State: China and the World 】 呢本書嘅重點係:「目前我哋見到嘅中國,其實延伸自被蒙古征服之後所建立嘅大國家結構(Great State)。」書裡面十三個單元,可以單獨去睇,但串埋一齊,又有個更大嘅故事。最重要係,歷史書,睇落好似講過去,但作者好多時都係講緊目前;當然,更值得大家推敲嘅,係究竟從作者所鋪陳嘅歷史,究竟 Great State 嘅未來又會點。
【#3 |Steven Pinker, The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined 】 雖然我哋成日都覺得,兩次世界大戰好暴力,死好多人;有啲社會,好似美國,槍械泛濫,日日都有人死。但實際上,今時今日嘅世界,人與人之間嘅暴力,少過以前好多。人類文明嘅定義,就係唔再講打打殺殺,係咪?但點解會有呢個現象呢?如果話人性本來就係殘酷惡毒,又係乜嘢原因令人嘅獸性受到壓抑呢?又或者,過去幾十年來相對嘅非暴力,其實只係異數?
【#4 | Neil Postman, Amusing Ourselves to Death: Public Discourse in the Age of Show Business 】 呢本書最初出版係 1985年,當時最主流嘅娛樂係睇電視。但到今時今日仍然有人話,呢本書嘅講法一樣可以用來分析 social media 。當一個觀念可以貫穿唔同嘅時空,佢就符合經典呢個定義。究竟 The medium is the metaphor 呢句說話,係乜嘢意思?假如話電視係「公仔箱」,咁手機又應該係乜嘢呢?
【#5 | Ray Dalio, Principles, Life and Work 】 Ray Dalio 搵好多錢,好叻,我最初留意佢,亦都係因為 Bridgewater Associates 旗下基金曾經跑贏大市。不過,如果因為佢搵好多錢就睇佢寫嘅嘢,就好容易失望,因為我唔相信成功可以複製。好多年前,Principles 仍然係一份可以免費 download 嘅 pdf,我都已經搞過讀書會討論分享。Ray Dalio 係個有諗法嘅人,佢亦都好落力去宣揚佢相信嘅價值觀。Principles 裡面所描繪嘅做人態度,我形容係「極端理性主義」;究竟咁理性嘅人,係咪好不近人情呢?當然,我咁講得,就梗係覺得唔係喇!我甚至乎覺得,極端理性主義,先係真正嘅大情大性。
【#6 | Simon Sebag Montefiore, Jerusalem: The Biography 】 話說有種心理病叫「耶路撒冷症候群」(Jerusalem Syndrome),去到耶路撒冷嘅人,會忽然感覺到聖靈嘅感召,做出一啲好怪異嘅行為。但生活響耶路撒冷嘅人,又會點呢?呢本書嘅作者野心好大,用一個地方嘅人同事,去刻劃三大宗教三千年嘅歷史。其實,過去我一直有個疑惑:明明地球咁大,大把地方嘅條件好過耶路撒冷,點解幾千年來,呢班人究竟係爭緊啲乜嘢?
【#7 | Eric Hobsbawm, Fractured Times: Culture and Society in the 20th Century 】 因為想從一個馬克斯主義者嘅角度睇現代資本主義社會嘅歷史,所以其實我一直都想開始讀 Hobsbawm 嘅著作。既然有朋友提名呢本書,就不如由呢本開始喇。
【#8 | Michael Sandel, The Tyranny of Merit: What’s Become of the Common Good 】 好多人鍾意 Michael Sandel ;佢嘅 Justice 同 What Money Can’t Buy 我都有認真去讀。坦白講,我認為 Sandel 叻在將知識普及,但就唔算得有咩個人又或者創新嘅構想。不過,就算係唱「別人的歌」,只要唱得好都值得欣賞嘅。Meritocracy,粗粗地咁可以解做「有能者居之」究竟 Sandel 會點樣去反對?
【#9 | Robert Greene, The 48 Laws of Power 】 Greene 嘅書,我淨係睇過佢寫嘅 Mastery。如果無記錯,當時應該係睇完 Malcolm Galdwell 嘅 Outliers 之後,順手睇埋。我對 Greene 嘅評價係:「一個好識得將唔同嘅故事炒埋一碟上枱嘅作者。」
【#10 | David Benatar, Better Never to Have Been: The Harm of Coming into Existence 】 呢個提名好特別;雖然我只係好簡略咁睇過些少背景資料,但直覺已經話我知,呢本書個種離經叛道嘅程度,係 handle with care 嘅級數。
【#11 | Niall Ferguson, The Square and the Tower: Networks and Power from the Freemasons to Facebook】 呢本書其實都係我自己嘅書單上面好耐;我想睇呢本書係因為佢嘅主題係 Network (The Square) vs Hierarchy (The Tower) 。但令我有少少猶豫嘅係呢本書有少少標題黨;我都幾肯定,有人以為本書係講 Freemasons 同 Facebook 嘅秘聞就衝咗去買。
【#12 | Matthew Walker, Why We Sleep: Unlocking the Power of Sleep and Dream 】 提名呢本書嘅朋友,問我有冇話一定要咩範圍。其實我近年嘅興趣都好雜;好似之前 James Nestor 嘅 Breath ,我唔單止有睇,做埋實驗㗎。
【#13 | Jane Mayers, The Dark Side: The Inside Story of How the War on Terror Turned Into a War on American Ideals】
【#14 | Jane Mayers, Dark Money: The Hidden History of the Billionaires Behind the Rise of the Radical Right 】 呢兩本書,The Dark Side 係講 911 後嘅美國,Dark Money 係講 Obama 年代共和黨嘅分裂同變異。一睇就知,作者好唔鍾意共和黨;但我又睇吓,究竟呢個本書可以有幾咁深入,有幾多大家未聽過嘅秘聞。
【#15 | Kate Fox, Watching the English: The Hidden Rules of English Behavior 】 似乎係本輕鬆小品;既然呢期咁多香港朋友都諗住去英國,又或者已經身在英倫,寫呢本書嘅推介,應該有市場啩。
【#16 |Kevin Kelly, What Technology Wants 】Kevin Kelly 我嘅形容係「奇男子」「先知」;先知,其實都係早過你知,但佢就早過我哋知一啲好重要嘅嘢。例如早在 2008 年佢就提出,話有 1000 個真正 fans 就可以做一個專業嘅 creator;呢個講法,比起依家大行其道嘅 passion economy,早咗十年。但我認為 Kevin Kelly 嘅真正代表作,係呢本 What Technology Wants。Kevin Kelly 對科技嘅發展,好樂觀;就算終有一日,機器嘅智能,將會做到甚至超越人類,但咁又點?汽車快過人類,咁你係咪打跛雙腳吖?工具嘅存在,被動咁睇係解決問題,但主動咁睇係去增加我哋嘅可能性。Kevin Kelly 用嘅例子係:如果莫扎特出生早一百年,當時冇鋼琴,咁佢仲係唔係咁偉大?雖然呢本書係十年前嘅作品,但先知嘅預言,就梗係要攤一陣先至可以公道咁評論,係咪?
【#17 |Garry Kasparov, Deep Thinking: Where Machine Intelligence Ends and Human Creativity Begins 】今季壓軸係 Kasparov 講返佢象棋事業高山低谷嘅自傳。雖然呢本書唔少篇幅講佢對 Deep Blue 嘅對弈。但就算你唔識,又或者唔鍾意捉棋,都不得不配佩 Kasparov 嘅 insight:「既然人類遲早都會輸比電腦;我寧願做歷史上第一個輸畀電腦嘅世界冠軍。」當然,輸咗棋之後,佢一定好多反省,但佢嘅結論係唔應該抗拒電腦,反而係要諗點樣用電腦令人腦嘅功能更強大。Kasparov 都有講到 Singularity,但佢比 Kevin Kelly 更樂觀;唔好忘意,Kasparov 曾經當住全世界面,畀電腦活生生咁蹂躪,連佢都話人工智能是個好東西,或者我哋都應該趁早了解其實呢個係一個咩心態。
technology and the american economy 在 Apple Daily - English Edition Facebook 的最佳貼文
#Opinion by Chung Sau Ha 鍾秀霞|"Fortunately, the situation has gradually changed in recent years. Amid tension between China and the US, many Chinese ADRs (American Depositary Receipts) have returned to Hong Kong to be listed on the stock market here. Most of these companies belong to the new economy. Meanwhile, more and more mainland technology startups are coming to Hong Kong for direct listing. This has changed the landscape of the Hong Kong stock market. These healthcare, technology and biotechnology stocks have higher growth potential, and some have even become Hang Seng Index Constituent Stocks, so that stocks belonging to the new economy now account for about half of the index. In this regard, it is reasonable for the valuation of Hong Kong stocks to go up. "
Read more: https://bit.ly/3aTik9Q
"幸好近年的情況慢慢有變,在中美兩國的角力下,很多在美國上市的中資ADR 已陸續回歸香港上市,這些企業多數屬於新經濟板塊,同時,也有越來越多中資科創企業來港直接上市,一改港股的面貌。這批健康護理、科技、生物科技股份,擁有更高的增長潛力,部份更躋身指數的成份股,令指數的新經濟佔比逐漸增長至一半左右,以這個角度而言,港股的估值獲得市場上調,亦屬合理。"
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technology and the american economy 在 serpentza Youtube 的最讚貼文
It's the rest of the world's fault, we need to work with China..... NOT! The Chinese government has very successfully tricked the world into looking away and turning a blind eye to the facts!
For a deeper dive into China's Propaganda influence and soft power, watch our liveshow ADVPodcasts: https://www.youtube.com/advpodcasts
Support Sasha and I on Patreon: http://www.patreon.com/serpentza
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DOCUMENTARY LINKS:
Conquering Southern China:
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Conquering Northern China:
https://vimeo.com/ondemand/conqueringnorthernchina
Stay Awesome China (my new documentary): https://vimeo.com/ondemand/stayawesomechina
For Motorcycle adventures around the world, and a talk-show on two wheels go to ADVChina every Monday 1pm EST
https://www.youtube.com/advchina
For a realistic perspective on China and world travel from an American father and a Chinese mother with two half-Chinese daughters go to Laowhy86 every Wednesday 1pm EST
https://youtu.be/mErixa-YIJE
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