最近,我在「TIME時代」雜志的專欄文章裡,向全球的讀者介紹了大陸「世界工廠」的+AI自動化升級。隨著勞動力成本的上漲,工業自動化、智慧化勢必是大陸製造業的一劑特效藥。自動化能讓運營成本下降,但仍能讓中國大陸保持生產品質、流程、供應鏈維度的優勢。AI賦能產業升級的願景或許還需多年才能實現,但當下的大陸已經讓未來可期。
以下是專欄文章全文,經TIME授權翻譯轉載:
「中國世界工廠 + AI 的未來」
多年來,中國大陸一直被喻為「世界工廠」,即便在全球其他經濟體紛紛遭遇新冠疫情重擊的2020年,大陸製造產業仍然維持穩健的增長范式,全年產值高達3.854萬億美元,占到全球市場近三分之一。
但如果你腦中的大陸工廠是傳統的「血汗工廠」,是時候修正你的刻板印象了。大陸經濟已經迅速地從疫情衝擊下復蘇,疫情同時催化了各種各樣人工智慧(AI)的應用場景加速實現。自2014年以來,中國大陸的AI專利申請量已經超越美國,至今維持全球領先。在學術領域,中國大陸的AI研究論文發表數量、AI期刊的引用量,也雙雙在近年超過了美國。在產業方面,AI應用在大陸的落地速度超越世界其他國家和地區,具有商業價值的AI應用如今開始百花齊放,整合了軟體、硬體和機器人技術的新一代自動化揭開序曲,AI賦能傳統行業的能量,正在蓄勢待發地重塑各行各業。
人類社會至今經歷了三次不同的工業革命:蒸汽革命、電力革命和資訊革命。我相信,AI將會是推動全球第四次工業革命的核心引擎,在世界各地點燃數位化和自動化的變革,而這波前所未有的硬科技浪潮,將由中國來引領實踐。
由於勞動人口減少和新增人口放緩,中國大陸的傳統產業正面臨著勞動力成本上升的巨大壓力,AI正是解決這個難題的技術解答。人工智慧不僅能夠降低運營成本,提高生產效率,擴大整體產能,還有望能帶來收入的增長。
例如,創新工場投資的廣州極飛科技是一家致力於未來農業的AI科技公司,極飛將無人機、機器人和感測器部署在稻田、麥田和棉花田裡,用技術賦能農業中的播種、農藥噴灑、栽種管理、甚至天氣監測環節。用於作物噴灑的極飛科技R150農業無人車已經被推廣到了英國,應用在蘋果、草莓、黑莓等多種經濟作物的種植流程中。
一些大陸的創新公司正積極把機器人拓展到意想不到的場景。總部位於北京的鎂伽是創新工場投資的生命科學智慧自動化公司,他們和實驗室、製藥公司、高校合作,憑藉AI+機器人技術的積累,用自動化解決方案執行實驗室中勞動密集、重複性高、但需要高度精確的任務和流程,同時機器人作業也將盡最大可能保護實驗室人員降低實驗過程中的感染風險。
除了創業公司,我們看到幾家成熟的龍頭企業也開始積極擁抱AI。創新工場參與了有28年歷史的中力電動叉車,這家頭部的鋰電叉車製造商已經推出了能夠在工廠、倉庫自主運行的無人叉車,並且無需對運行環境進行改造,能快速實現從手動到電動到自動駕駛的搬運賦能創新。此外,擁有50多年歷史的領先客車製造商-宇通集團,與自動駕駛獨角獸企業-文遠知行戰略合作,已在大陸三個城市的馬路上運行全無人駕駛小巴。
接著會發生什麼?我大膽預見,在更長遠的未來,機器人和AI將接管大多數產品的製造、設計、交付甚至營銷——很可能將生產成本降低到和原物料成本相差無幾。未來的機器人有能力自我複製和自我修復,甚至做到部分自我反覆運算設計。房屋和公寓將交由AI主導設計,使用預製建築模塊,交由機器人像搭積木似地築樓蓋房。無人公交、無人摩托等隨傳隨到的自動化未來交通系統,能將我們安全無虞地送達想去的地方。
這些願景成為現實或許還需要多年,但此時的大陸正在積極鋪墊引領新一代自動化革命的基石。可期的是,中國工廠的實力將不僅僅體現在產能上,而將逐步彰顯在智慧上。
本文經「TIME時代」授權進行中文編譯,原文如下:
China Is Still the World's Factory — And It's Designing the Future With AI
BY KAI-FU LEE
For many years now, China has been the world’s factory. Even in 2020, as other economies struggled with the effects of the pandemic, China’s manufacturing output was $3.854 trillion, up from the previous year, accounting for nearly a third of the global market.
But if you are still thinking of China’s factories as sweatshops, it’s probably time to change your perception. The Chinese economic recovery from its short-lived pandemic blip has been boosted by its world-beating adoption of artificial intelligence (AI). After overtaking the U.S. in 2014, China now has a significant lead over the rest of the world in AI patent applications. In academia, China recently surpassed the U.S. in the number of both AI research publications and journal citations. Commercial applications are flourishing: a new wave of automation and AI infusion is crashing across a swath of sectors, combining software, hardware and robotics.
As a society, we have experienced three distinct industrial revolutions: steam power, electricity and information technology. I believe AI is the engine fueling the fourth industrial revolution globally, digitizing and automating everywhere. China is at the forefront in manifesting this unprecedented change.
Chinese traditional industries are confronting rising labor costs thanks to a declining working population and slowing population growth. The answer is AI, which reduces operational costs, enhances efficiency and productivity, and generates revenue growth.
For example, Guangzhou-based agricultural-technology company XAG, a Sinovation Ventures portfolio company, is sending drones, robots and sensors to rice, wheat and cotton fields, automating seeding, pesticide spraying, crop development and weather monitoring. XAG’s R150 autonomous vehicle, which sprays crops, has recently been deployed in the U.K. to be used on apples, strawberries and blackberries.
Some companies are rolling out robots in new and unexpected sectors. MegaRobo, a Beijing-based life-science automation company also backed by Sinovation Ventures, designs AI and robots to safely perform repetitive and precise laboratory work in universities, pharmaceutical companies and more, reducing to zero the infection risk to lab workers.
It’s not just startups; established market leaders are also leaning into AI. EP Equipment, a manufacturer of lithium-powered warehouse forklifts founded in Hangzhou 28 years ago, has with Sinovation Ventures’ backing launched autonomous models that are able to maneuver themselves in factories and on warehouse floors. Additionally Yutong Group, a leading bus manufacturer with over 50 years’ history, already has a driverless Mini Robobus on the streets of three cities in partnership with autonomous vehicle unicorn WeRide.
Where is all this headed? I can foresee a time when robots and AI will take over the manufacturing, design, delivery and even marketing of most goods—potentially reducing costs to a small increment over the cost of materials. Robots will become self-replicating, self-repairing and even partially self-designing. Houses and apartment buildings will be designed by AI and use prefabricated modules that robots put together like toy blocks. And just-in-time autonomous public transportation, from robo-buses to robo-scooters, will take us anywhere we want to go.
It will be years before these visions of the future enter the mainstream. But China is laying the groundwork right now, setting itself up to be a leader not only in how much it manufactures, but also in how intelligently it does it.
Source:https://time.com/6084158/china-ai-factory-future/
traditional marketing example 在 貓的成長美股異想世界 Facebook 的最讚貼文
[上週計畫中的功課: Microsoft (MSFT) (challenge #3), Tesla (TSLA)財報 (challenge #4)---Done!]
[本週準備耳朵長繭, 枸杞茶待命: 閱讀財報 Challenge #5~#10(暫定): Visa(V), Shopify(SHOP), Spotify(SPOT), PayPal(PYPL), Amazon(AMZN), Pinterest(PINS).
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關於本週發表財報的一些公司, 我之前有整理了些資料&寫過文章. 有興趣的讀者可看看:
Alphabet Q1 2020財報Q&A簡單整理:
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2020/03/alphabet-googl.html
Amazon上季財報結果整理:
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2020/03/amazon-amzn.html
PayPal上季財報結果整理:
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2020/03/etc-paypal-pypl.html
Pinterest研究筆記:
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2020/03/pinterest-pins.html
Spotify研究筆記:
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2020/03/spotify-spot.html
Wingstop公司介紹文(有兩篇.....這是上篇. 請自行搜尋下篇):
https://www.stockfeel.com.tw/wingstop%EF%BC%88wing-us%EF%BC%89%E5%9F%BA%E6%9C%AC%E4%BB%8B%E7%B4%B9/
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疫情發生後, 美國人對於疫情產生的一些現象(在家工作, 用app訂餐, 在家運動, 遠距看病, etc.)看法為何? 哪些因為疫情而造成的生活上的改變, 他們認為會繼續存在呢?
麥肯錫做了份研調, 很好看:
https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/marketing-and-sales/our-insights/survey-us-consumer-sentiment-during-the-coronavirus-crisis
我截了幾張圖, 放在下面, 並在圖片旁做了一些解釋.
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今天天氣好潮濕又熱........讓我想到台灣.......不能出外走走, 只好在家開冷氣寫分析文了. 好久沒寫文章, 手真的會癢😅. 而也很意外地, 不到一天就把文章寫了九成(研究民生消費相關的個股, 真的像是回到了mothership(就是有回到家的感覺😅), 也能夠一下子就抓到重點. 一邊寫, 其實心裡也對能不能投資這家公司, 有了答案.
希望週四能夠完成&發表. 這家公司, 女性投資人一定會喜歡😉
先賣個關子, 不過這家公司跟英國高級百貨公司Browns有很大的關係. 在此分享個時尚流行產業小故事:
【Browns的創辦人,無數大牌設計師的商業伯樂】
(簡體字新聞)
http://www.myvipsalon.com/content/custom/20160224/c3b3f4f0973f54f.shtml
"被尊稱為的Mr.B的Joan Burstein夫人更是以發掘設計天才著稱,包括John Galliano,Alexander McQueen以及Hussein Chalayan在未大紅大紫時布朗斯都曾為他們銷售時裝,Mrs. B同時早期就將吉爾·桑德(Jil Sander),唐娜·卡倫(Donna Karan),加默(Comme des Garons)和喬治·阿瑪尼(Giorgio Armani)等設計師介紹到英國市場。"
而這個新聞跟這家公司沒有直接關係, 但是很有趣:
向年輕世代靠攏!LV、Gucci與遊戲合作的背後,新一代潮流正在形成: https://www.beautimode.com/article/content/87579/
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這陣子Tesla好出風頭, 呵. 連我媽都知道了.
號稱矽谷最聰明投資人的Chamath Palihapitiya, 前幾天也上了CNBC的節目, 發表了他對Tesla的看法(他也是Tesla投資人):
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-what-tslaq-got-wrong-chamath-tsla/
"From Day 1, you have had this massive tension between the bulls and the bears on this company. The bulls basically saw a long-term trend around electrification and the bears tried to play with balance-sheet mathematics," says @chamath on Tesla $TSLA
而這段話, 有很好的鼓勵作用:
“I think this is a really important example of much bigger trend that’s happening in the stock market, which is that retail investors now have access to so much information that it’s almost on parity with people that work in traditional investment organizations. And what we’ve seen as that happened, is that the quality of that analysis and the ability to see around the corner is as good and in many cases, better than traditional investment firms in the way they view the problem,” he said.
共勉之. Have a nice week.
Picture來源:
EarningsWhispers, 麥肯錫報告.
traditional marketing example 在 CleverMunkey.com Facebook 的最佳貼文
Go digital or you die. If you still believe only in traditional way of marketing or advertising, then you will never go further than what you have achieved now...
Innovate or die .. The #1 reason ToysRus is bankrupt.. An important lesson.. and a great example for things to come..