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在trump stock這個產品中，有73篇Facebook貼文，粉絲數超過112萬的網紅文茜的世界周報 Sisy's World News，也在其Facebook貼文中提到， 0929紐約時報 *【葉倫警告說，違反債務限額將帶來“災難性”後果】 美國財政部長葉倫再度發出警告，除非國會暫停或提高債務上限，否則聯邦政府可能將於 10 月 18 日用罄手頭資金，導致「歷史性的金融危機。」 https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/28/business/...
　同時也有31部Youtube影片，追蹤數超過6萬的網紅Chi Brugh，也在其Youtube影片中提到，#cuocsongmy #chibrugh #kinhtemy ✅ Kênh 1 CHI BRUGH VLOG: http://www.youtube.com/c/ChiBrugh ✅ Kênh 2 CHI BRUGH OFFICIAL: https://youtube.com/c/ChiB...

trump stock 在 文茜的世界周報 Sisy's World News Facebook 的最佳解答

文茜的世界周報 Sisy's World News By 文茜的世界周報 Sisy's World News

2021-09-29 11:30:10 有 969 人按讚
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0929紐約時報

*【葉倫警告說，違反債務限額將帶來“災難性”後果】
美國財政部長葉倫再度發出警告，除非國會暫停或提高債務上限，否則聯邦政府可能將於 10 月 18 日用罄手頭資金，導致「歷史性的金融危機。」
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/28/business/economy/yellen-powell-senate.html

*【科技股下滑和債券收益率攀升，股市呈現5月以來最糟的一天】
標準普爾 500 指數週二下跌 2%，這是自 5 月以來最大單日跌幅，投資者面臨央行即將放緩大規模購買債券舉措。Forex.com 高級金融市場分析師Fiona Cincotta表示：大幅拋售凸顯了市場對美聯準會動作的緊張程度。
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/28/business/stock-market-today.html

*【英國出現汽油危機】
司機加油站外排長隊、超市貨架被搶空。由於脫歐和疫情造成勞動力短缺，運送燃料和物資的卡車司機大批減少，加油站油罐和超市庫存難以得到補充。隨著不安情緒蔓延，英國多地出現恐慌性搶購，危機進一步惡化，更引發對經濟衰退的擔憂。
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/28/world/europe/why-uk-fuel-shortage.html

*【加拿大將阿富汗難民重新安置目標提高一倍，達到4萬人】
加拿大外交部長表示，加拿大已將計畫接收的阿富汗難民數量增加了一倍，達到4萬人。這實現了總理杜魯多的競選承諾，其政黨在剛剛過去的選舉中贏得連任。
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/27/world/americas/canada-afghanistan-refugees.html

*【米利為打給中國的電話事件辯護】
美國最高級別軍官、參謀長聯席會議主席Mark A. Milley上將在國會作證，為他在川普政府最後幾個月的行為進行了辯護，堅稱他與中國軍方對等官員的兩次通話是其職責所在，且沒有繞開非軍方領導層。米利還警告稱，美軍撤出阿富汗後，基地組織和伊斯蘭國“非常有可能”在那裡重建。
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/09/28/us/senate-hearing#milley-trump-china-pelosi

*【大選失敗，德國基民盟陷入混亂】
基民盟在德國大選中失敗意味著什麼？這是基民盟自成立以來最糟的一次失利，梅克爾領導的保守黨正在目睹自己權力的流失。敗選曝露出該黨的艱難處境，也讓人們對保守主義運動的長期生存能力產生擔憂。而傳統上的左右翼政治分野已經陷入混亂，德國的未來仍然難以預測。
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/28/world/europe/germany-election-merkel.html

*【美國數千名紐約醫療工作者在截止日期前接種疫苗】
州官員說，隨著疫苗接種要求於週一全面生效，該州超過 650,000 名醫院和療養院工作人員中的 92% 已經接種了至少一劑疫苗。這比一周前有了顯著增加，當時該州 82% 的療養院工作人員和至少 84% 的醫院工作人員至少接受了一次劑量。
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/28/nyregion/vaccine-health-care-workers-mandate.html

*【Covid-19實時更新】
#Kaiser Family Foundation對疫苗態度的最新調查顯示，Delta變異是人們決定在今年夏天接種疫苗的主因，也是為什麼大多數人說他們在符合條件時會接種疫苗的原因。但調查也表明，近四分之三未接種疫苗的美國人，對加強劑的看法截然不同，稱施打加強劑表明疫苗沒有作用。
#輝瑞和BioNTech表示，已向美國監管機構提交了資料，証明他們的疫苗對5至11歲的兒童是安全有效的。這兩家公司還表示，將正式向美國、歐盟和其他國家提交申請，要求批准其疫苗對兒童投入使用。
#洛杉磯湖人隊球星LeBron James說，原本對施打疫苗存疑，但他坦言自己最後還是接受施打了疫苗。其他幾個備受關注的NBA球員拒絕在下個月NBA賽季開始前接種疫苗，讓所屬球隊很頭痛。
#CDC報告發現，第三劑疫苗的副作用與第二劑相似。在第三次接種疫苗後，79.4% 的接受者報告了注射部位的反應，如疼痛或腫脹，而第二次接種後這一比例為 77.6%。出現全身反應（如發燒或頭痛）的人數略少：74.1% 的人在第三劑後報告了這些副作用，而在第二劑後為 76.5%。
#在突破性Delta變異案例激增後，哈佛商學院將研究生課程轉移到網上。
#由於每日新增冠狀病毒病例數量下降，且疫苗已覆蓋近 60% 的人口，日本將於週四結束其緊急狀態措施，希望此舉有助於振興該國經濟。這是自 4 月 4 日以來日本第一次沒有任何地區處於緊急狀態。
#敘利亞衛生官員和援助組織說，敘利亞正在經歷冠狀病毒感染的大量激增，因為全國各地的醫院都發現自己沒有能力應對自大流行開始以來最嚴重的病例湧入。
#羅馬尼亞周二創下了迄今以來最高的單日確診病例，同一天，該國政府開始為33%已施種完畢的成年人提供加強劑。
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/09/28/world/covid-coronavirus-vaccine

*【孟晚舟回國引發對中國“人質外交”的擔憂】
兩名加拿大人和兩名美國人的獲准離開看起來像是拜登政府的政治決定，一些人對此提出批評，稱這將削弱美國的制裁和起訴等工具。印第安那州眾議員Jim Banks在寫給司法部長Merrick Garland的一封信中寫道：“將她放走，甚至連最輕微的懲戒都沒有，美國是在向任何可能的犯罪分子宣傳，我們對執行制裁並不認真。”
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/28/us/politics/huawei-meng-wanzhou.html

*【日本新的首相候選人即將勝出】
日本執政黨自民黨今日將舉行總裁選，獲勝者將接任月底離任的菅義偉也將鎖定下一任首相之職。現任疫苗大臣河野太郎在民調中領先，但在自民黨內部並不受青睞。河野不墨守成規，一直在爭取公眾輿論支持，他在Twitter上發佈有趣的推文，有時親自回答疫苗問題。在社會議題上他持左傾立場，反對核電、支持同性婚姻。這都令他與影響力強大的黨內保守派高層格格不入。
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/28/world/asia/japan-taro-kono-prime-minister.html

*【恆大與中國曾攜手共進，如今卻被推向懸崖】
許家印曾是中國首富，也是中國經濟崛起的象徵。他通過瘋狂借貸和拉攏政商關係將恆大發展成為中國最多產的開發商，但北京如今不再容忍這種戰略。恆大的成功反映了中國從一個農業經濟體發展至一個擁抱資本主義的國家的轉型，它的掙扎也讓外界得以一瞥這個國家未來的金融新形勢。
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/28/business/china-evergrande-economy.html

*【從關塔那摩到阿爾巴尼亞，一名新疆維吾爾人流亡的15年】
9·11事件發生時，凱西姆正在經陸路由中國遷往土耳其的途中，他在阿富汗被賞金獵人抓住並交給了美國人，被美國軍方指控為與塔利班結盟的恐怖分子。在關塔那摩被關押四年後，他被無罪釋放並被送往阿爾巴尼亞。因為主張新疆獨立，凱西姆被中國認定為恐怖分子，一旦回國很可能再次入獄。他只好以“人道主義保護”身份在阿爾巴尼亞生活至今。
https://cn.nytimes.com/world/20210928/uyghurs-guantanamo-albania-china/

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和我們一起聽感人的追夢故事 掌握全球的趨勢脈動， 帶您一起看不可不知的世界大事。
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trump stock 在 Eric's English Lounge Facebook 的最佳解答

Eric's English Lounge By Eric's English Lounge

2021-06-16 20:02:06 有 199 人按讚
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There’s rhythm in writing! 🎶

這個禮拜Presentality的Andrew來分享英文寫作的節奏!

★★★★★★★★★★★★

我的工作需要看非常多的英文。

其中有英文母語的人寫的，也有非母語的人寫的。最近，我注意到一個兩者之間很明顯的差別。這個差別很少有人提到，因為它無關文法正確，也不是有學問的用語，或是文雅的詞彙。

是句子的長短。

Well，更正確的來說，是長句跟短句的交錯。我發現，非母語人士寫的英文句子，不但比英文母語的人寫的長，而且是大部分句子都很長。

母語的人，尤其是很會寫的人，則是會把長句跟短句混合搭配。
那又怎樣？

★★★★★★★★★★★★

你可能會說 ok，以英文為母語的人比較會用短的句子，那又怎樣？句子的長短，跟我寫作的好壞，有關嗎？

關係可大了。

就像音樂，或是影片，文字也是「內容」。只要是「內容」，就有它的節奏。你可以想像一首曲子，從頭到尾都是很長的音，而且一點變化都沒有嗎？或是一部很長的影片，從頭到尾都是很長的畫面，而且一點節奏的變化都沒有嗎？

Well actually，你應該可以想像，這些就是要幫助我們睡眠的。
如果你不想要你的讀者覺得無聊或甚至睡著，我建議適度變換你文字的節奏。

但我們先看案例。

我拿一篇台灣人寫的文，跟另一篇美國人寫的，來做比較：把每個句子都分拆成不同的段落，句子的長短就一目了然了。

★★★★★★★★★★★★

但我們先看案例。

我拿一篇台灣人寫的文，跟另一篇美國人寫的，來做比較：把每個句子都分拆成不同的段落，句子的長短就一目了然了。

📌 台灣案例：Taipei Times Opinion

1. The TAIEX last month rose above 17,000 points as rallies in steel, shipping and some non-tech stocks offset a weakness in semiconductor and electronics stocks.

2. While news about a cluster of local COVID-19 infections connected with China Airlines cargo pilots and a hotel in Taoyuan fueled selling pressure early this month and pushed the local stock market into consolidation mode, the daily market turnover in the first two trading sessions of this month hit fresh highs.

3. Moreover, Taiwan’s stock trading volume last month began to surpass that of Hong Kong for the first time in 15 years, which was beyond most market participants’ expectations.

4. Taiwan’s daily market turnover exceeding Hong Kong’s might gradually become a new normal from this year, and there are good reasons for this.

5. First, Hong Kong’s stock market has lost its appeal to foreign investors since China last year imposed national security legislation on the territory, triggering a potential flight of capital and talent.

6. Second, many wealthy Taiwanese tend to park their overseas funds in Hong Kong, China, Singapore, Switzerland and the US, but government statistics showed that more than 80 percent of funds repatriated by wealthy individuals last year were from Hong Kong, as they saw the political situation in the territory worsen after its self-governance, human rights and freedom of speech were further suppressed.

7. Third, China’s new NASDAQ-style stock board — the Shanghai Stock Exchange’s STAR board — has emerged as a fast-growing capital markets center for Chinese companies at a time when rising China-US tensions have triggered concerns about their prospects of listing in New York, posing a growing challenge to the Hong Kong stock exchange.

8. On the other hand, Taiwan’s economic fundamentals, the central bank’s adoption of extraordinary monetary easing and the government’s fiscal policies have fueled continued rallies in the nation’s stock market since last year.

9. It might be too early to tell how long the consolidation trend might last, as a resurgent COVID-19 outbreak is coloring the global economic outlook, but some insight can be drawn from the stock market:

10. Taiwan’s GDP grew a larger-than-expected 8.16 percent in the first quarter, as exports and private investment remained healthy.

都是一堆很長的句子對不對？我們來看美國人寫的句子，也是一個主流媒體的 opinion 文。

★★★★★★★★★★★★

📌 美國案例：New York Times Opinion

1. I miss torturing Liz Cheney.

2. But it must be said that the petite blonde from Wyoming suddenly seems like a Valkyrie amid halflings.

3. She is willing to sacrifice her leadership post — and risk her political career — to continue calling out Donald Trump’s Big Lie.

4. She has decided that, if the price of her job is being as unctuous to Trump as Kevin McCarthy is, it isn’t worth it, because McCarthy is totally disgracing himself.

5. It has been a dizzying fall for the scion of one of the most powerful political families in the land, a conservative chip off the old block who was once talked about as a comer, someone who could be the first woman president.

6. How naïve I was to think that Republicans would be eager to change the channel after Trump cost them the Senate and the White House and unleashed a mob on them.

7. I thought the Donald would evaporate in a poof of orange smoke, ending a supremely screwed-up period of history.

8. But the loudest mouth is not shutting up.

9. And Republicans continue to listen, clinging to the idea that the dinosaur is the future.

10. “We can’t grow without him,” Lindsey Graham said.

📌 Note: 即使是比較長的句子，這位作者也會用標點符號拆散它：She is willing to sacrifice her leadership post — and risk her political career — to continue calling out Donald Trump’s Big Lie. 這就好比用句點一樣，讓我們讀起來有點停頓休息的時間。

★★★★★★★★★★★★

📌 注意到了嗎？

台灣人寫的英文，句子都偏長，而且長度都差不多。
美國人寫的就不一樣了：一個只有五個字的句子開頭，然後一堆稍微長一點的句子，然後再來一串短句。

你可能懷疑我故意挑選很極端了例子出來，而且幹嘛專門打台灣人呢？

所以想到這裡，我從我的書架上，隨便挑了兩本跟科技有關的書出來。左邊的，是美國人，矽谷知名投資人 Peter Thiel。右邊的是德國人，但注意了，是一個英文非常好的德國人。他不但是世界經濟論壇的創辦人，研究所也是在哈佛大學唸的。

★★★★★★★★★★★★

📌 兩本書 Introduction 是怎麼寫的？

Klaus Schwab (德國)：

Of the many diverse and fascinating challenges we face today, the most intense and important is how to understand and shape the new technology revolution, which entails nothing less than a transformation of humankind.

We are at the beginning of a revolution that is fundamentally changing the way we live, work, and relate to one another.
In its scale, scope and complexity, what I consider to be the fourth industrial revolution is unlike anything humankind has experienced before.

Peter Thiel (美國)：

Whenever I interview someone for a job, I like to ask this question: "What important truth do very few people agree with you on?"

The question sounds easy because it's straightforward.
Actually, it's very hard to answer.

It's intellectually difficult because the knowledge that everyone is taught in school is by definition agreed upon.

See the difference?

★★★★★★★★★★★★

📌 如何變換節奏呢？

需要Andrew的完整分享請留言「There’s rhythm in writing~」。

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trump stock 在 元毓 Facebook 的最佳貼文

元毓 By 元毓

2021-05-29 17:33:44 有 229 人按讚
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【後疫情時代中國面對的經濟環境】

本文嘗試用一個廣角、簡略但直入重點的方式分析中國在疫情之後所面對的全球經濟環境。

國家競爭力的經濟學概念與中國縣競爭制度

根據經濟學比較優勢定理，國家之間的競爭始終被比較成本所局限。而在分析國家競爭力上，我摒棄華而不實的哈佛商學院Michael Poter的鑽石競爭理論，回歸最基本但正確的經濟學成本概念，其中尤受諾貝爾經濟學獎得主R. Coase的「The Problem of Social Costs」鴻文啓發：

國家競爭成本 = 直接生產成本 + 間接生產成本 + 制度費用

特別說明我所謂的「間接生產成本」更接近上頭成本，本身除了牽涉到整體租值外也會涉及到產業乃至於社會國家的路徑依賴。

在相同供應層面，某國是否可以用更低成本下滿足同樣的需求，以及是否可以善用比較優勢定理。後者包含了前者的同時，也是國家與國家之間的角色不單純只是競爭關係，而是有更多供需關係。後者之所以尤為重要在於「買方與賣方永遠不存在競爭關係」。因此在供應鏈上彼此依賴的買賣雙方國家，依賴程度越深入越廣泛，則敵對的成本將等比級數增加。

換個角度來說，Covid-19疫情本身帶來上述三種成本的同步增加。這也意味著在疫苗逐漸普及的後疫情時代，能夠以更快速地降低上述三種成本的國家將在新一輪全球經濟重新平衡的過程中取得更佳的競爭優勢地位。

在張五常「The Economic Structure of China」一書闡述的中國曾有的1990年代末到2010年間之縣競爭制度下，中國借此享受人類近代少有的超低制度費用與間接生產成本，佐以原本享有的人口紅利帶來的在中低階工廠流水線上較低直接生產成本，中國製造橫掃全世界九成以上的中低階工業領域。

但隨著中國中央政府出台勞動法與加強反托拉斯管制與大大小小的管制措施，上述獨有的縣競爭制度似乎已不復存在。這也為疫情後面對全世界新的經濟環境中國是否還具有經濟學謂「低制度費用」的高彈性與快速適應力埋下變數。

瞭解這個重要局限條件改變後，我們來看看疫情後中國所面對的全球經濟挑戰有哪些。

1 全球通貨膨脹可能帶給中國輸入性通膨

美國建國以來90%以上的M0貨幣發行量是在最近15年內產生，尤其疫情後Fed諸多舉措都可說是「瘋狂印鈔」，在世界多數原物料與貿易均以美元定價與結算的前提下，世界性通貨膨脹必然來到。

站在2021年5月這個時間點看，美國股市、房市、債市與全世界的大宗期貨、能源價格都受到局部性通膨影響，尤其主要農產品、金屬期貨價格多在52周以來新高。（見圖）

（美國M0通貨）

（美國股市）

（美國房市）

（美國債市）

（石油價格）

中國改革開放以來相當長一段時間貨幣匯率政策緊盯美元。2010年代以後雖然改盯一籃子貨幣，但明眼人都看得出美元的比重。故，在美元瘋狂印鈔的環境下，人民幣相應的輸入性通膨也必然發生。

這一塊我們可以預測，在貨幣學 Impossible trinity law的局限，以及中國對人民幣國際化的追求下，中國人民銀行應將在近年內逐步脫鈎對美元匯率的政策，同時部分放寬外匯管制，以得到更多貨幣主權。

同時取消或降低部分關稅，以及放寬戶口管制，都可以是中國政府提高國家競爭力可能採取的措施。

二、 全球局部地區將因疫情影響出現糧食危機

很明顯Covid-19疫情影響了糧食生產與輸布，全球局部地區的糧食危機已經開始出現。根據聯合國2020年糧食安全報告估計到2020年底全球因疫情而陷入經濟衰退與飢餓的人口數達8300萬～1.32億人。其引發的糧食價格增長將加重中國輸入性通膨下，百姓生活的負擔

中國家戶支出30%花費在食物品項，又中國國內大豆需求90%依賴進口滿足，因此可預見中國的飼料與肉品市場價格恐將上揚且吃緊。

（中國主要糧食供需狀況）

全球能源市場也會因疫情與之前負油價事件影響一段時間內失去部分供給彈性，意味著能源市場價格伴隨通膨因素影響的上揚也是可以預期，這一塊同樣也會加重中國未來將面對的輸入性通膨壓力。

因此我們會看到中國在人民幣國際化推廣上會施以更大力道，例如與更多國家簽訂貨幣清算與貨幣交換協議，嘗試在糧食/能源品項上更多地採人民幣定價結算。如此方可在不過度犧牲中國世界供應煉地位的前提下，減少輸入性通膨對人民的衝擊，尤其是輸入性通膨下中國國內資本投資的資源錯置現象將可以得到一定程度約束。當然這部分中國政府應該還會採取價格管制或其他市場管制措施相佐之，但政府干預與介入本身又會帶來更多訊息費用、交易費用，甚至政府本身就成為資源錯置的問題根本，也是極為可能。這些都是身為投資人的我們值得持續觀察與因應。

三、 中美衝突與戰爭風險提高

如前述，國家邊際競爭成本，尤其邊際間接生產成本與邊際制度費用，增加速率大過他國之速率，則一國之國力衰退，或更精准地說，國家相對競爭優勢衰退。反之則可視為國家相對競爭優勢增加。

在人民幣國際化過程將直接與美元產生競爭關係且削弱美國對全球徵收「美元稅」的能力，經濟邏輯上的效果是：2008年金融危機後的QE之所以沒有在美國發生嚴重通膨，正是因為美元在國際貿易與國際金融的霸主地位可以對全球抽取美元稅，意味著美國可以將貨幣濫發帶來的經濟成本移轉給全世界承擔，其中以世界貿易額佔比越高者承擔越多，故身為世界第一大商品出口國的中國自然也承擔大部分苦果，這也是為何我長時間以來主張美元的地位相當程度是由中國支撐。

而在人民幣競爭之下（我們假設人民幣國際化真取得成效），美國不再能輕易移轉自身國家競爭成本給全世界時，通貨膨脹將回歸隨著貨幣發行量增長而提高，這對美國而言代表聯邦政府與州政府等一系列債券、連動債務的利息支出成本將提高，未來借貸成本也將提高。在一定程度上，美國政府或州政府可能因此停擺，甚或我們會看到州政府、市政府因此破產。

因此美國必然會嘗試在各方面阻止之。

提高上述中國的國家邊際競爭成本也無可避免會是美國未來數十年的整體戰略目標。

所以我們看到美國從President Trump任期開始，嘗試尋找各種可以提高中國國家邊際競爭成本的手段。

然而在當今真實世界供應煉、服務煉、金流、資訊流高度分工交雜的局限條件下，我推斷任何一任美國政府、智庫都難以清楚釐清自身採取的任何競爭戰略是否會帶來意料之外的後果（unintentional consequences）。

a 舉例來說，比如美國政客錯誤判斷關稅手段制裁中國會有效，於是我們看到Trump任期貿易戰初期就是違背WTO規範，片面無理對中國出口商品加重關稅或其他非關稅貿易手段。

然而真正懂經濟學邏輯者看法多如我當時寫下的預判一樣 — 如果美國以關稅手段要抑制中國出口經濟，但關稅提高幅度不夠大不夠全面的話，則中美之間的貿易逆差狀況不但不會縮減，反而在某些不同彈性系數之下會增加。（見圖）

（中國出口美國統計圖）

反之，美國經濟將因自身對中國的片面關稅障礙而受創。

更進一步，若美國政客傻到真的將制裁關稅提到夠高，足以發生抑制中國出口額的效果，則美國經濟將必須付出重大代價，其中包括美元地位將大幅動搖。如前述貨幣政策問題，不但聯邦政府利息支出將壓垮政府財政，州政府乃至市政府破產潮亦不遠。故，我們看到即便是Trump也被迫停止更瘋狂的關稅壁壘措施。

b 再以半導體產業的光刻機為例，美國施壓荷蘭ASML禁止出貨中國廠商已經付費採購的光刻機，其結果反而是給中國光刻機或EDA廠商創造市場，協助排除了原本ASML強力的競爭。從經濟學角度來看這是一件很諷刺事情。

這是因為全球光刻機市場是一個高度技術集成的天然寡頭壟斷市場，除非有類似當年ASML與日本佳能之間的技術彎道超車（浸潤式UV光刻技術）特殊情況發生，否則後來者都會因為技術認證與攻克的巨大前期投資成本而被排除於競爭之外。

然而，從經濟學競爭的角度看，美國禁止ASML對中國出口，結果反而是讓中國半導體製造廠被迫轉向投資與採購其他中國光刻機供應商，使得原本在市場上幾乎無競爭力的後者，因美國的禁令創造的「競爭真空」環境而有了成長空間。

因此我們放大時間尺度來看，20年、30年後如果中國半導體設備商有了長足的進展，肯定要回過頭感謝美國政府政府的錯誤干預所創造的商機。

說到商機身為投資人的我們可以注意，在上述政客的錯誤決策中，一些轉瞬即逝的投資機會也會因政府干預而起。例如下一點。

c. Super Micro 間諜晶片事件，2018年10月美國知名商業性雜誌Bloomberg刊登新聞「The Big Hack: How China Used a Tiny Chip to Infiltrate U.S. Companies」聲稱Super Micro這家公司利用一顆米粒大小的間諜晶片替中國政府竊取資訊。

姑且不提一顆米粒大小，本身毫無無線射頻天線的晶片在當時技術上幾乎不可能竊取什麼資訊，2年多後海潮退去，不但美國政府或Bloomberg都未提出更進一步有力證據，整件事甚至根本就被遺忘。

當年我不但寫了幾篇文章駁斥這種謬論栽贓。還親自動手買入這家粉紅單公司，短短三天就賺了台轎車。

香港2019年暴動事件、2021年新疆奴隸棉花事件、最近新冠病毒向中國求償事件...等，我們都可以看到美國政客在試圖提高中國競爭成本的過程，會創造大大小小系統性或個體性的災難風險，例如前述Super Micro因栽贓性假消息股價從$20.61美元在一兩日內崩跌至$13左右，但隨著栽贓者無力提供更多證據，市場回歸均衡的過程，截至2021年5月28日，Super Micro股價已經來到$35。

這是說，某些因政治干預造成的個體性或系統性風險，雖然屬於不可預測的風落（windfall），但其中不乏類似Super Micro的例子，在隨後回到正常的價值位置。如W. Buffett所言：市場短期是投票機，但長期是磅秤。

d. 美國知名橋水基金創辦人Ray Dalio在其將於2021年11月初版的書籍」The Changing World Order」 已提前公開的第七章」US-China Relations and Wars」提出綜合國力歷史計算與國力表（見圖）

提出美國正處於信用擴張後期的大國階段，而歷史上處於此階段與新興國力上生階段的國家一旦發生國力曲線交叉時，多半發生大規模戰爭以重新均衡雙方與整體國際關係。

依其推論，中美兩國發生戰爭的風險來到史上最高點。

但這部分我持較保留態度，特別是新任President Biden政府的高達$6 triilion美元的聯邦預算案出台，我們注意到一者，美國聯邦政府支出繼續維持二次世界大戰以來的GDP高佔比--達25%，二者，預算增幅最大均在健康醫療（成長23.1%）、商務（27.7％）與環保（21.3％），然在國防（1.6％）與國家安全（0.2％）幾乎未有成長，甚至計入通貨膨脹因素，後二部門的預算是實質減少的。因此可推估此任政府對發生大型戰爭的預期心理。

四、 變種病毒的不確定性

這是最後最難評估的風險，在現階段的資產配置決策中不可忽略卻又幾乎難以估計。拔高到國家決策層面來看，這也是中國面對的最棘手風險之一。

結論：

以上是我從經濟學角度出發，非常簡略地預測中國在疫情後將面對的國內外經濟環境與挑戰。其中任何一項單獨提出要深入探討都會是長篇大論。還有一些我認為相對重要性較低的現象與局限條件轉變，本文也尚未涵蓋。

BTW，最後多提一句台灣獨有的風險：後疫情時代是否接種過疫苗有可能在相當時間內成為國際旅遊的必要條件。然如果台灣政府真的壓寶在台灣國產疫苗上，則在現今環境下有沒有可能不被世界多數國家組織承認？會是一個額外的成本。

參考文獻：

*  The Wall Street Journal, 「Biden is the $6 Trillion Man」 (May 28, 2021), https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-is-the-6-trillion-man-11622241749
*  The Financial Times, 「The summer of inflation: will central banks and investors hold their nerve?」 (May 15, 2021), https://www.ft.com/content/414e8e47-e904-42ac-80ea-5d6c38282cac
*  Ronald Coase, 「The Problems of Social Cost」 (1960)
*  Ray Dalio, 「The Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail」 (2021)
*  Irving Fisher, 「The Money Illusion」 (1928)
*  Mundell, Robert A. (1963). "Capital mobility and stabilization policy under fixed and flexible exchange rates". Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science. 29 (4)
*  Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz, 「A Monetary History of the US, 1867-1960」 (1963)
*  Milton Friedman, 「Money and the Stock Market」 The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 96, No. 2 (Apr., 1988), pp. 221-245 「
*  Allan Meltzer, 「Learning about Policy from Federal Reserve History」 (Spring 2010)
*  Armen A. Alchian, 「Effects of Inflation Upon Stock Prices" (1965)
*  張五常, 「Will China Go Capitalist?」 (1982)
*  張五常, 「The Economic Structure of China」 (2007)
*  Ronald Coase and Ning Wang, 「How China Became Capitalist」 (2012)
*  Alfred Marshall, 「Principles of Economics (8th ed.)」 (1920)

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元毓說粉絲頁 美國法學碩士，智財權、競爭法與法律經濟分析專業。分享20年投資經驗所得之經濟學體悟。
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#reference:
https://daodu.tech/01-28-2021-chaos-wall-streets-trump-moment?fbclid=IwAR1-aCy6gmDjIzC2uWyY949yloQJocgegKpVqup-Zq6YexK43qOPXmR7N-4
https://medium.com/trading-mind/%E6%B7%BA%E8%AB%87-gme-%E4%BA%8B%E4%BB%B6%E8%83%8C%E5%BE%8C%E8%BB%8B%E7%A9%BA%E5%92%8C%E4%BC%BD%E7%91%AA%E6%93%A0%E5%A3%93%E7%9A%84%E5%B8%82%E5%A0%B4%E7%8F%BE%E8%B1%A1-3d9a0d1284fb
https://hk.appledaily.com/finance/20210129/FERSYCGN5FDRLPN5JHAPFPWDQU/?fbclid=IwAR22Dy0rNog1C-47Z43w7ZWoRj1gfTOZUCdXy2i5CHIgcJ-c6kcQfhBuuZs
https://hk.appledaily.com/finance/20210129/4PFA7UNMGRBE3AM6S4CVBJSC4U/?fbclid=IwAR0sMmVoKjtPSPbH-2-dOra47gRbc5Vc1CgqE2zxD7vOjE1Z5U3Na_v1xgA
https://hk.appledaily.com/search/%E6%8C%BE%E6%B7%A1%E5%80%89%E9%A2%A8%E6%9A%B4/?q=%E6%8C%BE%E6%B7%A1%E5%80%89%E9%A2%A8%E6%9A%B4&fbclid=IwAR1u-R5dW4stcHoz7iBZgOwNRJZpQNfabtZCDIMbIGdned9YlhsGBNBUepg
https://hk.appledaily.com/finance/20210130/QQJDANYCNRFTHLG4S4GX4AQXBM/?fbclid=IwAR3Qt_ZFpLQuJwgWnvUuu_knzAIIP0n4hjSTfECvqn8qZBYiG6wIKVsv-nY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q15tkw3Ouiw&fbclid=IwAR1u-R5dW4stcHoz7iBZgOwNRJZpQNfabtZCDIMbIGdned9YlhsGBNBUepg
https://inews.hket.com/article/2864988/?lcc=an&fbclid=IwAR0S6z6x1jkGUClsX7m-Pa24mXW9DLU-RXRS_IP0AjzbBQFMWhiAXMemC8o
https://inews.hket.com/article/2865356/?lcc=an&fbclid=IwAR0mK3izomdOiPqaBku72YMqlR2MirzbgZU5Vqloblk8Z9h59tAkbYk5nts
https://inews.hket.com/article/2866559/%E3%80%90%E9%81%8A%E6%88%B2%E9%A9%9B%E7%AB%99GME%E3%80%91%E9%A6%99%E6%AB%9E%E5%AE%A3%E5%B8%83%E4%B8%8D%E5%86%8D%E7%99%BC%E8%A1%A8%E6%B2%BD%E7%A9%BA%E5%A0%B1%E5%91%8A%E3%80%80%E5%B0%88%E6%B3%A8%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6%E5%A5%BD%E5%80%89%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E6%A9%9F%E6%9C%83
https://wiki.mbalib.com/zh-tw/
https://hk.appledaily.com/finance/20210129/FERSYCGN5FDRLPN5JHAPFPWDQU/?fbclid=IwAR3xTmzzAGD3JcXEN3_Lk2cw73sKt9Lvhzv4mgQNwRm0f6UanJqXfFmE5Do
http://www.aastocks.com/tc/mobile/news.aspx?newsid=NOW.1072731&newssource=HK6
https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-hk/%E5%A4%A7%E8%B3%A3%E7%A9%BA_(%E9%9B%BB%E5%BD%B1)
https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E9%81%8A%E6%88%B2%E9%A9%9B%E7%AB%99%E8%BB%8B%E7%A9%BA%E4%BA%8B%E4%BB%B6

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遊戲情報科會將當星期最新最熱的遊戲新聞及遊戲推介用幾分鐘講曬你知, 雖然講唔上係最專業, 但一定係貼地。 For everyone who received an code request via Email, That was an fake account (the email address only with single T "[email protected]" ) who was trying to fraud . I will never ask for review code .I would buy any games which i interested , as a support for game dev :)
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trump stock 在 老外看中國、老外看台灣 | A Laowai's View of China & Taiwan | 郝毅博 Ben Hedges Youtube 的最讚貼文

老外看中國、老外看台灣 | A Laowai's View of China & Taiwan | 郝毅博 Ben Hedges By 老外看中國、老外看台灣 | A Laowai's View of China & Taiwan | 郝毅博 Ben Hedges

2021-01-14 10:30:09 有 30,171 人看過 有 1,763 人喜歡
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00:00 ?我們都需要真相?
01:46 眾院彈劾案通過 參院如何？
04:21 「政治獵巫」將引發危險？
06:41 川普可能公開病毒「絕密情報」？
08:14 超前解密機密文件，川普「將」軍？
10:29 美發現2種新變種病毒，單日亡近4500
12:20 暴增107例，中國疫情大爆發？
16:01 石市血庫告急 核酸檢測早期查不到病毒
18:29 中共忙毀證，世衛唱雙簧？
20:42 巴西：科興疫苗有效率50.38%

昨天，副總統彭斯回絕了眾議院要求罷免總統川普的要求後，今天眾議院對彈劾總統川普案進行了投票表決。參議院通過的希望有多大？在川普任期的最後幾天發動彈劾，民主黨人的目的是什麼呢？
#核酸檢測 #彈劾川普 #疫情爆發

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病毒有眼睛：伊朗2500萬染疫
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病毒有眼睛：巴西疫情急劇飆升 失控的背後
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老外看中國、老外看台灣 | A Laowai's View of China & Taiwan | 郝毅博 Ben Hedges

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新唐人「老外看中國」、「老外看台灣」系列節目始於2012年，由香港出生、英國成長，目前定居美國的老外郝毅博（Ben Hedges）主持。郝毅博幼年隨父母在香港生活過一段時間，之後畢業於英國倫敦大學亞非學院中文系，曾到台灣學習中文，赴美發展後，娶了一位東北姑娘，所以與中港台的緣份有點深！ 老外節目向以輕鬆、娛樂方式上分析嚴肅議題、針砭時事，但由於反共立場堅定不移，節目經常遭到審查黃標，郝毅博的家庭也經歷幾次中共的威脅。觀眾們透過節目瞭解洞析事實的真相，一直是支撐我們繼續下去的原因！ 工作相關事宜：[email protected] 老外捐款網站： http://bit.ly/ToLaoWai
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(Alliance News) - Stock prices in Europe climbed on Monday morning, with traders watching peace ...

#77. Trump Returns to Georgia Confronting Test of His Grip on GOP

Donald Trump, Stock media provided under editorial business license, ... ATLANTA (AP) — In Donald Trump's push to fundamentally reshape the ...

#78. 11 Stocks That Donald Trump Loves | Politics - US News Money

The 92-page disclosure shows that Trump has assets of at least $1.4 billion, including at least $70 million in stocks.

#79. Spice seller spends $700000 on anti-Trump Facebook ads

Penzeys Spices' outspoken anti-Trump owner and ads bring delight and ... “The spice trade invented capitalism, it invented the stock market, ...

#80. Stocks move ahead as Ukraine peace talk hopes trump ...

Stocks move ahead as Ukraine peace talk hopes trump increased China Covid-19 lockdowns. 28 March 2022, 12:13. London share prices were higher at midday on ...

#81. Has Trump Admin overseen 11 biggest drops to stock market?

Have the largest single-day stock market drops to the Dow Jones really been under the Trump administration? Answer: Yes. But this needs context.

#82. Electric Avenue (Trump Unmixed) - The Economic Times

Trump should have stuck to something more up his street than ... Nifty Below 11200Buy Or Sell Stock Ideas By Experts For September 22 ...

#83. Donald Trump: US 'like a third world country' as stores without ...

Ex-President Donald Trump compared the US to a 'third world country' with no bread in grocery stores and other shops out of stock (Pictures: ...

#84. Under his thumb the effect of president Donald Trump's Twitter ...

Further, financial information on Twitter affects the stock market [11], supporting the assumption that president Trump's tweets might influence ...

#85. Letter: Name calling won't tarnish Trump's record - Daily Herald

A Mettawa letter to the editor: Before COVID-19 arrived in the U.S., under President Trump, the stock markets were at all-time highs, ...

#86. N.Korea prints stamps of Kim's meeting with Trump - Investing ...

But no stamps on Kim's summit talks with South Korean President Moon Jae-in or a trilateral gathering with Trump at Panmunjom were featured in ...

#87. Trends - Trending Searches - Google Trends

Trends ; 1. Morbius · The Verge ; 2. Cesar Chavez · USDA.gov ; 3. AJ Crimson death · POPSUGAR ; 4. Rob Kardashian · Cosmopolitan.com ; 5. Alien' Creature Australian ...

#88. Stock exchange delisting 3 Chinese companies under Trump ...

Trump issued an order Nov. 12 barring investment in publicly traded companies that the U.S. government says are owned or controlled by the ...

#89. Trump's DC hotel sale gets federal greenlight - The Real Deal

The sale of the Trump International Hotel lease to CGI Merchant Group is slated to close six months after it was reported in contract.

#90. How the Stock Market Betrayed Donald Trump - The New ...

“Stock market drop a blow to Trump's election messaging” blares today's lead story, by Jeff Stein, in The Washington Post. “The Stock Market ...

#91. NYSE Investigates Citadel, Citigroup Over Shopify Stock Jump

David Perdue, Trump's candidate for Georgia governor, is trailing the incumbent in the polls, and even other MAGA candidates have yet to endorse ...