[迷失十年,廿年,卅(*)年]日本股市卒之見家鄉,sort of
彭博原文:Japan Stocks Finally Beat Bubble-Era High, at Least on One Gauge(https://bityl.co/3iYB)
TLDR:日經指數就仲爭七成,但日經500已經破咗1989年高位。呼,人生有幾多個卅年?
1. 1989年12月29日,你做緊乜?可能有啲讀者未出世,埃汾當然出咗世,11歲。呀仲有,我中學時曾經巧鍾意嘅女同學,係12月29號出世的。後來嫁咗畀我另一男同學,啤咗兩件(定一件?)。重點係住在我樓上添,篤眼篤鼻,而小學年代(即係1989年),我同嗰位男同學十分老友,成日上佢屋企打機,因為就在我樓上。但當然中學已經疏遠咗,況且呀女主角根本冇同我拍過拖,所以不存在咩搶唔搶嘅問題。純係我單戀不遂咁解
2. Sorry講多咗,但至少引到你睇落去。為咗引你睇落去我係無所不用其極的,同街邊(東南亞?大陸?)啲乞兒扯開個傷口畀你睇差不多。
3. 講返,1989年12月29日。你睇題目估到啦,日本。日本發生咩事?1989年就係日本泡沫經濟高峰,雖則經濟冇話邊一個位爆破,但稱12月29日係爆破點,應該係共識。
4. 因為嗰日,日經平均指數去到史上最高—打後咁多年都冇返到去咁嘅位。而家2020年,即係迷失十年,轉眼間變迷失廿年,變到迷失卅年。
5. 對日本文化稍為理解嘅人(即係,所有香港人),都會知道呢個泡沫經濟,迷失十/廿/卅年。因為係無數咁多日本作品嘅題材—其中一套最出名嘅,當然係近排楷仔台有得免費睇返嘅,《悠長假期》(絶對唔係植入廣告)。大家知啦,松隆子當時係新人,而家已經要演人阿媽(《最後的情書》,好合理喎,43歲)。但木村依然屹立不倒/阻住地球轉。
6. 《悠長假期》嘅背景就係泡沫經濟後嘅失落一代嘛,終身僱用制玩完,再冇咩一大堆10000 yen爭住截的士嘅場面。
7. 不過唔使灰心,嘻,「只要活著就有辦法嘛」,近來興講。亦即係埃汾常講嘅「留得賓周在 哪怕沒春袋」。當然廢老同你講「只要活著就有辦法嘛」就係風涼話 何不食肉糜,都係睇日劇好
8. 講返,真的,「只要活著就有辦法嘛」,事隔30年!日經指數卒之返返當年高位!!!!
9. 不過,電視節目有好多種,恒生指數有好多種(冇聽過恒生國企指數?恒生科技指數呢?恒生綜合指數呢?),日經指數都有好多種。一般講嘅日經指數,係指日經225,就未返到高位。唔使開香檳住
10. 但至少,日經500,就真係創出歷史新高了!突破咗1989年12月29日嘅高位—事隔30年後。噢耶
11. 滬深300,就真係300隻股票。富時100,亦係100隻股票。日經225,就係225隻股票。咁日經500,就真係500隻成份股(廢話?咁香港十隻白虎係咪10隻?唔知,冇數過,好似講股票的,有獨角獸有白馬股可能有白虎股,正如有唐伯虎亦有嚴白虎)。
12. 因乜解救會日經500破頂,日經225未破?當然係成份股不同。咁500入面係邊隻帶動?
13. 登登,就係惡名昭彰嘅,任天堂!
14. 舊文都寫過,日經指數基本上係照抄美國道指—戰敗國嘛。事實係戰後嘅嘢,但你話,唔係喎,你見到1949年之前都有數字—冇錯,但只係date back 返。日經指數出現,的確係戰後嘅事,唔信你自己搵日本報紙睇飽佢。咁,由於日經照抄道指,亦承繼咗道指種種不科學嘅嘢,有機會再講。
15. 但呢度想講嘅係,任天堂,係唔在日經225入面嘅!但在日經500!點解?莫非唔夠大?又唔係喎。你常識都估到,任天堂點都係日本大公司。事實任天堂市值應該係日本十大
16. 呢類東西,等我賣個廣告,遲下Patreon 周末專題會講,正如之前寫過美國大選,寫過Palantir,寫過畢菲特點解買日本商社。記得去訂(https://bit.ly/31QmYj7)
17. 賣完廣告,返返嚟。任天堂今年股價上天堂咁滯,年頭至今升超過40%,低位到而家更差不多一個double.但偏偏日經(225)指數就冇份,日經500先有。
18. 如果有會點?我就懶計了。不過由於日經225嘅老味計法,就算有埋任天堂,我心算都估唔會可以一命救全家。事實係日經225今年只係持平(都好過好多地方架啦),但日經500升咗8%。唔止係一隻任天堂
19. 仲有一啲其他公司係日經500有,而日經225冇。包括Keyence(キーエンス),一度係日本第二大公司(但都唔入日經225,死未),SMC Corp,仲有賣傢俬嘅Nitori (ニトリ)
20. 當然,唔一定話係日經500比較好,但至少可以質疑日經225嘅代表性(任天堂又冇,Keyence又冇,兩間都十大企業喎)。而其實日經225同500一樣,都係抄道指,price weighted,十分低智。Uniqlo嘅Fast Retailing就佔咗日經10%比重,三倍市值嘅Toyota就得1%比重,十分神化。
21. 高程度啲嘅,可能聽過TOPIX—冇錯就係科學啲,仲要包1700隻股票—「但又太多啦」,啲人又話太多細股又冇流通性好難track
22. 實情以上種種,包括任天堂同Keyence入日經之類,都講咗好一排。但日本嘛,再搞多幾年先啦。
23. 最後講下,日經(225)當然未返1989年12月29日嘅高位。而家23500點左右。1989年12月29日?差不多38900點,再等下啦,升多六成幾。
24. 其實真係冇你想像中咁難,我諗最值得講嘅係:日經500己經返返當年高位,但日經(225)要升多六成幾先返到。咁變咗你拎咩「股市」嚟講返日本經濟,有何意義?指數?誰的指數?
25. 仲有個小補充。基本上講泡沫經濟,迷失十/廿/卅年,必然仲要講嘅,係MK仔都知嘅,「廣場協議」,日圓升值。
26. 首先,廣場協議並唔係在任何廣場簽嘅(真的)。而1989年已經係廣場協議後嘅4年,日圓升值最急嗰浸已經過咗。不過,而家嘅日圓,仲係貴過當年嘅。如果你用香港人角度,當年係5算(嘩),而家7算,早幾年10算都見過
27. 亦即係,其實對外國投資者嚟講,你計及匯率,日經500一早就返咗家鄉。日經(225)呢?仲未,但升多兩成幾就得了。
28. 但當然,所謂「美國迫日本升值令日本出口競爭力大跌經濟泡爆」呢個論述,並唔係全部人都同意。甚至「迷失十/廿/卅年」呢樣嘢,都有人話係日本人撚化你嘅。日本人生活水平好差咩?「同香港比就係嘅」。有機會在Patreon都會寫
29. 有關平成年代嘅日本股市,之前medium仲有長文寫過,免費的(https://bityl.co/3iZF)
30. 記住訂Patreon啦,遲下成個日經指數同你研究,仲有埋Excel畀你自己玩。(https://bit.ly/31QmYj7)
(*)之前寫文用過「卅」字,居然有人問我做乜用日文字,仲問我隻字點打,繁體字係乜。照計金庸張三丰畀人屌話寫殘體字嘅日子不遠。或者下次寫個卍字會畀人話係納粹(聽聞個「卍」字在日本變咗潮語)
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[收費短片第九擊]美股科技股是否泡沫爆破?價值投資之選
課程資訊:https://homebloggerhk.com/course_detail/?code=CC009
內容:
*美股急跌點算好
*科技股係咪泡沫爆煲?
*有乜價值投資之選?
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Hey guys!
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