這是截至今天目前為止(3/2)的敘利亞北部戰區勢力範圍，以下為各方勢力控制色塊：
土耳其控制和支持的敘利亞反抗軍(紫色)
親土耳其的敘利亞反抗軍(橘色)
伊斯蘭聖戰組織(暗紅色)
庫德族武裝勢力(綠色)
阿薩德政權統治的敘利亞政府軍(黃色)
敘利亞政府軍急於對付反抗軍，去年起一步步攻擊反抗軍據點，結果導致兩國在俄國的眼皮下打了起來，敘北戰區有庫德族、黎巴嫩真主黨(Hezbollah)支持敘利亞政府軍，土耳其則支援反阿薩德政權的敘利亞民主軍(FSA)，以及還有從其他中東或北非的激進聖戰組織，盤據在敘北戰區
土耳其在北部鄰近阿勒坡(Aleppo)和南方的伊德里布(Idlib)的戰線，在敘利亞政府軍受俄國支援下被猛攻，土耳其的防線從去年12月26日到今年2月17日為止慢慢被逼退後，尤其土耳其不滿遭到敘利亞政府軍轟炸造成嚴重死傷，這幾天開始猛攻轟炸，支援在北部的反抗軍拓展勢力，也透過空襲摧毀敘利亞政府軍據點和武裝單位
Idlib sitrep
The SAA has been losing a lot of ground on the Ghab Plains in Western Idlib. Three days ago, Almost all of the plain had been reconquered by the Syrian army and the M-4 Highway was in sight. Right now the SAA has been pushed roughly half way back the plain.
However, government forces are apparently regaining some ground toward Saraqib (East Idlib). There were fights along the strategic city's suburbs all night long. Hezbollah was apparently heavily involved in the fight...
So far, the Hezbollah had been careful not to get involved in a fight with Turkish troops and Turkey avoided targeting Hezbollah camps and bases. This has changed this weekend: Hezbollah militiamen were targeted by Turkish strikes, causing casualties. Both the Hezbollah and Iran warned Turkey not to target Lebanese and Iranian proxies in Syria. Tehran went as far as threatening Ankara by reminding the Turks that they are within range of many Iranian ballistic and cruise missiles.
Turkish drone warfare has turned the tables in this conflict and will most certainly become a case study in the near future. Turkish operators are getting good at targeting Syrian reinforcements columns, sapping their morale and effectiveness before they even reach the frontline. Said operators are also targeting any retreating forces, often turning orderly retreats into mini routs and forcing said men to abandon hardware and vehicles behind them. The Turkish drone campaign has inflicted a fair amount of casualties and hardware on the Syrian forces. Hardware can be replaced by Moscow, but Damascus is already short of manpower as it is. It is good to keep in mind that while the Syrian losses figures are probably high, the ones published by Ankara are overly overestimated. The information warfare on both sides is in full swing.
The SyAD seems powerless against those drones: It lacks short and medium range mobile SAM batteries to protect its forward positions and convoys on the move. And the few batteries it has are needed around Damascus to try and mitigate the effects of constant Israeli strikes.
The SyAF lost two Su-24 Fencers over the province, yesterday.. Most probably shot down by Turkish F-16s.
Turkey seems to be shifting some more HTS (Al Qaeda) fighters from Idlib to Libya. Ex-Syrian rebels and foreign jihadis that fought in the Syrian civil war have been fighting on behalf of Ankara in Libya for the past month or so.
General Haftar of the Libyan National Army was in Damascus yesterday, to coordinate action against Turkish policies in both countries. An agreement was reached: Any Syrian caught prisoner in Libya will be handed over to Damascus...
Washington, which has spotted a golden opportunity to drive a wedge between Ankara and Moscow, has pledged to (politically) support Turkey in Idlib. The Turkish request to have US Patriot batteries deployed in Turkey hasn't been granted, however.
Moscow, using almost the same language, has pledged to keep on supporting Damascus in its fight against terrorism...
Putin and Erdogan are supposed to meet up within days to bridge their differences. Delegations from both countries' foreign ministries have already met to prepare the upcoming high level meeting. This might not be as straightforward as it sounds: This weekend, Turkey has requested Russian forces to move back to their Syrian bases and let the Turkish army conduct its business in Idlib... Moscow reminded Ankara that Russia is currently the only country operating in Syria whose armed forces were legally deployed on Syrian territory after having been invited there by the country's official government...
Pretty big bridge to gap, then...
-RBM.
