關於 nuclear cost ，我們在網路上蒐集到這些相關的討論、資訊與評價

核電不敵再生能源，衰退已成定局

2017《世界核能產業現狀報告》說到，「報告已敲醒鐘，辯論已然結束。世界能源的優先選擇順序上，核電將被太陽和風力所取代。這並非夢想或推估，而已成為現實」。而根據2020《世界核能產業現狀報告》全球能源發展的整體趨勢呈現為再生能源持續有突破性發展，核電則不論在發電量增長、發電占比或是發電成本上，皆 #不敵再生能源。

以下我們整理了幾點核能不敵再生能源的事實：

✅ 均化成本：核電已比風、光貴將近4倍

根據金融諮詢和資產管理公司拉札德（Lazard）2019年的能源技術成本報告，太陽光電的均化成本（註1）從2010年每度電 0.359美元降至2019年0.041美元（USD/KWh），降幅89%；風電從每度電0.135美元降至0.04美元，降幅70%；核電成本十年來則上升了26%，從每度電0.123美元漲至0.155美元，已比風、光貴將近四倍。

✅ 投資金額：全球再生能源投資金額是核電的10倍

《2020世界核能產業現狀報告》（註2）指出，2019年全球挹注於再生能源上的總投資超過3000億美元，是核能發電投資的十倍之多。

✅ 就業人數：未來再生能源就業人口是核電的36倍

根據國際再生能源總署（IRENA）2018年的報告（註3），2016年全球再生能源就業人數已達到近1000萬人，核電為70萬，而在全球升溫於世紀末前控制在2度C的情境中，再生能源至2050年預估可創造2880萬個就業機會，核電為80萬。

✅ 平均建置期：核電比風跟光多花2倍時間

根據五位能源學者分析123個國家的數據後共同發表的報告《對照追求再生電力、核電國家間的減碳排放量差異》（註4），核電的平均前置期為 90 個月，風力和光電僅為 40 個月。因此在投資同樣金額之下，再生能源比易受延宕的核電更能迅速地減少碳排放。

✅ 碳排放量：核電碳排最高將達到再生能源的10至18倍

史丹福大學環境工程學系教授Mark Jacobson的研究報告指出（註5），將不同電力來源生命週期，包括採礦、燃料製造、電廠營運到後端除役與廢料處理過程之碳排都完整計入時，核電的碳排放量將高出再生能源10到18倍。另一個匯集分析了103份核電生命週期碳排的研究（註6）則指出，每度核電的平均碳排約為66克二氧化碳當量，相較之下太陽光電是32克二氧化碳當量、離岸風力則是9克二氧化碳當量。

Jacobson也指出另一個常被忽略的「機會成本碳排」，是指由於興建速度緩慢，需要耗費更多時間依賴化石燃料，因此相較其他更快速的電力選項會再增加額外的碳排。新建核電的機會成本碳排和風電相比，每度電為64至102克二氧化碳當量。

✅ 發電佔比：再生能源占比超越核電

非水力再生能源在2019年時貢獻了全球10.39%的發電量，首度超越核電的10.35%，其中核能發電的發電占比自1996年以來便持續下降，2019年只比前一年微幅成長0.2%。

✅ 裝置容量年成長：風和光是核電的65倍

根據《2020世界核能產業現狀報告》，全球非水力再生能源在2019年新增的裝置容量達到184GW，創下歷史新高，其中風力發電量新增59.2GW，年增率為13%；太陽光電新增了98GW發電量，年增率為24%，相較之下，核能發電的淨成長僅為2.4GW，年增率為3.7%，且有一半來自於中國。

✅ 國際能源總署的評估：再生能源減碳貢獻遠超過核電

國際能源總署（IEA）今年發布的「2050淨零：全球能源部門路徑圖」報告（註7）中指出，為了達到2050年淨零目標，再生能源在全球電力的占比需要達到將近90%，核電則不到10%。

種種對比顯示核電在現今社會已經是過時又危險的舊世紀產物，全世界都在減少核電（除了中國），台灣卻還有某群人在掙扎，不免讓人擔心是否墨守成規，不願接受世界趨勢。因此，我們邀請大家在12/18的全民公投第17案投下不同意票，讓台灣邁向更乾淨、更安全的家園。

#分手吧我們不核四
#核四公投17不同意
#12月18日公投讓我們大家ㄧ起對核四公投案投下不同意票
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註1：均化成本（Levelized Cost of Energy）用來計算發電設備壽命週期內的平均發電成本，包括投資、運轉與維護、燃料及除役成本，是評估電力技術競爭力的基本指標。

註2：《2020世界核能產業現狀報告》”World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2020” https://www.worldnuclearreport.org/-World-Nuclear-Industry-Status-Report-2020-.html

註3：國際再生能源總署（IRENA）- " Global Energy Transformation: A Roadmap to 2050 "
https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2018/Apr/IRENA_Report_GET_2018.pdf

註4：《對照追求再生電力、核電國家間的減碳排放量差異》（Differences in carbon emissions reduction between countries pursuing renewable electricity versus nuclear power）https://www.researchgate.net/publication/344482658_differences_in_carbon_emissions_reduction_between_countries_pursuing_renewable_electricity_versus_nuclear_power

註5：”Evaluation of Nuclear Power as a Proposed Solution to Global Warming, Air Pollution, and Energy Security” https://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/NuclearVsWWS.pdf

註6："Energy Balance of Nuclear Power Generation" https://www.energyagency.at/fileadmin/dam/pdf/publikationen/berichteBroschueren/Endbericht_LCA_Nuklearindustrie-engl.pdf

註7："Net Zero by 2050 - A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector" https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/beceb956-0dcf-4d73-89fe-1310e3046d68/NetZeroby2050-ARoadmapfortheGlobalEnergySector_CORR.pdf

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核能處境雪上加霜，發電成本最高、建設也大受疫情影響！（09/29/2020 TechNews科技新報）

作者 Daisy Chuang

核能成本似乎愈來愈高，2020 年《核能產業現況報告》（World Nuclear Industry Status Report）指出，目前核能成本為每 MWh 155 美元，與每 MWh 49 元的太陽能、每 MWh 41 美元的風能相比，核能的價格與容量優勢已經不再。

隨著時間與學習曲線建立，太陽能與風能的建置成本已經愈來愈低，國際再生能源機構（IRENA）指出，2019 年大型地面型太陽能成本下降 19%，現在全球平均每 KWh（度電）約 6.8 美分，陸上風電陸和離岸風場也下滑 9%，分別為 5.3 美分和 11.5 美分。

相較之下核能的成本反而愈來愈高，《核能產業現況報告》指出，現在核電每 1 度電要 15.5 美分，而太陽能和風力則降到 4 美分左右。截至 2020 年中旬，目前正在運作的核能反應爐數量也是 30 年來最低，僅僅 408 座，裝置容量掉到 362GW，如今核能高峰時期已經過去，比去年少 9 座，更比 1989 年的 418 座與 2002 年的 438 最高峰還要少。

目前新型的核電廠急需新投資進駐，雖然不少國家認為核能是實現減排目標的關鍵之一，然而舊核電廠壽命將至維運成本提高、新電廠受環團抵制，今年雪上加霜地更受到武漢肺炎（COVID-19）波及，核能建設大受衝擊，正在興建的 52 座核反應爐中，有 33 座進度落後， 2020 年都沒有電廠落成。

以美國來說，新型核電廠難與便宜的天然氣競爭，老舊的核電廠壽命將至，美國核能愈來愈仰賴政府的補助，同時高昂的核廢料處理也會轉嫁到納稅人口袋。報告指出，不管研究人員再怎麼創新，美國政府還提供高達 6,500 萬美元的創新開發補助，似乎都難以挽救核能低迷的狀況。

太陽能媒體 PV Magazine 表示，能源成本與實際裝置量息息相關，2019 年全球僅安裝 2.4 GW 核電廠，相較之下，太陽能新增裝置量達 98 GW、風能為 59.2GW。《核能產業現況報告》共同作者 Antony Froggatt 表示，從經濟層面來看，再生能源持續領先核能，十年來公用事業太陽能與風能的成本已經下降 89% 與 70%。而核能雖然擁有超過半世紀的經驗，成本卻反其道而行增加 26%。

除了成本因素之外，核能不受歡迎的原因或許還包括「建設時間太長了」，2019 年的《核能產業現況報告》就指出，2009 年來全球核能反應爐的平均建造為 10 年左右，遠超過世界核能協會（WNA）預計的 5 到 8.5 年。如果要緩解全球暖化與氣候變遷，需要在最快的時間、最低成本，實現最多的減排。

當時報告主要作者 Mycle Schneider 就表示，緩解氣候變遷燃眉之急，但核電廠建設緩慢，不論是技術還是營運方面，都沒辦法超越其他更好、更便宜、更快的低碳能源。

完整內容請見：
https://technews.tw/2020/09/29/world-nuclear-industry-status-report

更多相關資訊：
Why Is Nuclear Energy So Expensive?
https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Nuclear-Power/Why-Is-Nuclear-Energy-So-Expensive.html

World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2020 Released
https://www.solarquotes.com.au/blog/nuclear-report-2020-mb1699/

Energy firms urged to mothball coal plants as cost of solar tumbles
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/02/energy-firms-urged-to-mothball-coal-plants-as-cost-of-solar-tumbles

World’s operating nuclear fleet at 30 year low as new plants stall: report
https://www.reuters.com/article/global-nuclearpower/worlds-operating-nuclear-fleet-at-30-year-low-as-new-plants-stall-report-idUSKCN26F0DQ

Nuclear energy too slow, too expensive to save climate: report
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-energy-nuclearpower-idUSKBN1W909J

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【水世界】的前製設定與現場劇照

WATERWORLD (1995)
In celebration of today’s anniversary of this wet mess/epic. Let’s celebrate the hard work this crew put into bringing this world to life. Water movies are never easy but when it comes to this movie anytime you bring it up and a crew member from it is in earshot, the stories pour out. Not always bad, I know a AC that said he had a blast, he loved the boat rides out and all the camaraderie the crew had to have to get thru it. To all the crew that helped bring WATERWORLD to life, We salute you and thanks for the memories. I personally enjoy this hot mess of a movie, it’s one of the last ones of its kind...done practically...in a way.
let’s take a deepest of dives into WATERWORLD

The director, Kevin Reynolds, knew there would be problems before production had even started, “During pre-production. Because having never shot on water to that extent before, I didn’t really realise what I was in for. I talked to Spielberg about it because he’d gone to do Jaws, and I remember, he said to me, “Oh, I would never shoot another picture on water”.
“When we were doing the budget for the picture, and the head of the studio, Sid Sheinberg, we were talking about it and I said, “Steven told me that on Jaws the schedule for the picture was 55 days, and they ended up shooting a 155 days”. Because of the water. And he sat there for a moment and he said, “You know, I’m not sure about the days, but I do know they went a hundred percent over budget”. And so, Universal knew the potential problems of shooting on water. It’s monstrous.”
The film began with a projected budget of $100 million which had reportedly increased to $175 million by the end of production. The principle photography had overrun for at least thirty days more than originally planned due to one major decision.

Whereas today they would film in water tanks with partially built sets, employing green screens to fake the locations, back in 1995 they decided to build everything full size and shoot out on the ocean.

This causes extra logistical problems on top of those that already come with making a major action blockbuster. Cast and crew have to be transported to sets. The camera boats and sets float out of position and will have to be reset between takes taking up valuable production time.

The first draft of Waterworld was written by Peter Radar, a Harvard graduate who wanted to break into the film business. His contact in the film industry was Brad Kevoy, an assistant to the legendary director Roger Corman.

Roger Corman is best known for making films very quickly on a small budget. He also liked to give young talent a chance to direct and write their own films. Brad informed Peter that if he could write a Mad Max rip off, he would arrange to finance and let him direct the picture.

Radar came back and pitched the idea for what would become Waterworld. Kevoy took one look at him and said,

“Are you out of your mind? This would cost us three million dollars to make this movie!”
So Radar kept hold of the idea and decided to re-write the script but, this time, going wild. He wrote what he wanted to see on-screen, limited only by his imagination, not a real world production budget.

He managed to get the newly written script shown to a pair of producers with whom he had made contact with. They loved it and ironically they passed it onto Larry Gordon. He shared the enthusiasm saying it had the kind of cinematic possibilities he was looking for. A deal was signed on Christmas Eve of 1989.

As further script rewrites progressed, it became clear that Waterworld was too big for the Larry Gordon’s production company to undertake by themselves. In February 1992, a deal was signed with Universal Pictures to co-produce and co-finance the film. This was now six years after the first draft had been written.

Universal had signed director Kevin Reynolds to Waterworld. Whilst he was finishing his latest film, Rapa Nui, pre-production for Waterworld was already underway.

The decision was taken that the largest set for the film, known as the atoll, would be built full size. The atoll was the primary location for film and in the story served as the location for a small population of survivors.

The logic behind this decision was due to the high percentage of live action filming required in this location, as well as a huge action set piece. No sound stage would be big enough to incorporate this number of scenes and it was crucial that we see the mariner sail his boat into the atoll, turn around and set out again. A full-size construction was the only way to go as the use of miniature and special effects would be impractical.

The next problem was deciding where to build this huge set. After much research, Kawaihae Harbour in Hawaii was chosen as the location. The atoll could be constructed in the harbour and rotated when needed thus allowing for open sea in the background. Later towards the end of principle photography, the atoll could be towed out into the open sea for the filming of the big action sequences which would be impractical to shoot in an enclosed harbour.

Director Kevin Reynolds also discussed the possibility of using the same water tank as James Cameron’s The Abyss, which had filmed there around five years ago,

“We had even entertained the notion of shooting at that big nuclear reactor facility where they had shot The Abyss, to use it for our underwater tank. But we found it in such a state of disrepair that economically it just wasn’t feasible. We didn’t have as much underwater work as they did. Most of The Abyss is interiors and underwater and model work, ours is mostly surface exterior.”

The production company had originally envisioned building the atoll by linking approximately one hundred boats together and building upon this foundation, just like the characters in the film. The production crew set out to search Hawaii and get hold of as many boats as possible.

During this search, a unique boat in Honolulu caught their attention. Upon further investigation, they discovered it was built by Navitech, a subsidiary of the famous aircraft production company, Lockheed.

They approached Lockheed with the strange request of figuring out how they could build the foundations of the atoll. Lockheed found the request unusual but didn’t shy away from the challenging. They agreed to design the atoll foundation and Navitech would construct it.

Meanwhile, an 11ft miniature model of the atoll was sent out to a model ship testing facility in San Diego. Scaled wave tanks are used to determine the effects of the open sea on large scale miniature models of new untested ship designs. This would help determine what would happen with the unusual design of the atoll when it was out of the harbour.

The atoll, when finished, was approximately ¼ mile in circumference. It took three months to construct and is rumoured to cost around $22 million. As the atoll would be used out on the open sea, it required a seafaring license. Nothing like this had been done before and after much deliberation, it was eventually classed as an unmanned vessel. This meant that all cast and crew would have to vacate the set whilst it was towed into position. By the end of production, the atoll was towed out to sea a total of five times.

Shooting out on the open sea presented a series of logistical problem as Reynolds describes,

“We had an entire navy, basically – I mean, this atoll was positioned about a mile off-shore in Hawaii, it was anchored to the bottom of the ocean so it could rotate. What you don’t think about are things like, you’re shooting on this atoll to maintain this notion that there’s no dry land, you always have to shoot out to sea. Away from the land. So we chose a location where we had about a 180 degree view of open water. Nevertheless, any time when you’re shooting, there could be a ship appear in the background, or something like that, and you had to make a choice. Do I hold up the shot, wait for the ship to move out, or do we shoot and say we’re going to incur this additional cost in post-production of trying to remove the ship from the background.

And at that time, CGI was not at the point it is now, it was a bigger deal. And so, even though if you’re shooting across the atoll and you’re shooting out onto open water, when you turn around and do the reverses, for the action, you had to rotate the entire atoll, so that you’re still shooting out to open water. Those are the kinds of things that people don’t realise.

Or something as simple as – if you’re shooting a scene between two boats, and you’re trying to shoot The Mariner on his craft, another boat or whatever, you’ve got a camera boat shooting his boat, and then the other boat in the background. Well, when you’re on open water things tend to drift apart. So you have to send lines down from each of those boats to the bottom, to anchor them so that they somewhat stay in frame. When you’ve got a simple shot on land, you set up the camera position, you put people in front of the camera and then you put background in there. But when you’re on water, everything’s constantly moving apart, drifting apart, so you have to try to hold things down somewhat.

And these are simple things that you don’t really realise when you’re looking at it on film. But logistically, it’s crazy. And each day you shoot on the atoll with all those extras, we had to transport those people from dry land out to the location and so you’re getting hundreds of people through wardrobe and everything, and you’re putting them on boats, transporting them out to the atoll, and trying to get everybody in position to do a shot. And then when you break for lunch, you have to put everybody on boats and take them back in to feed them.”

The final size of the atoll was determined by the size of the Mariners boat, the trimaran. The dimensions for the trimaran were finalised very early on in pre-production, allowing all other vehicles and sets to be sized accordingly.

Production required two trimarans boats which are so called because they have three hulls. The first was based on the standard trimaran blueprint and built for speed but also had to accommodate a secret crew below decks.

During wide and aerial shots it would have to look like Costner himself was piloting the boat. In reality, a trained crew could monitor and perform the real sailing of the boat utilising specially built controls and television monitors below deck.

The second trimaran was the trawler boat which could transform into the racer through the use of special practical effects rigs. Both of these boats were constructed in France by Jeanneau. Normally this type of vessel requires a year to construct but production needed two boats in five months!

Normally once the boat had been constructed, Jeammeau would deliver it on the deck of a freighter, requiring a delivery time of around a month. This delay was unacceptable and so the trimarans were dismantled into sections and taken by a 747 air freighter to the dock Hawaii. Upon arrival, a further month was required to reassemble the boat and get them prepared for filming.

sets recreating the inside of the tanker were built using forced perspective in a huge 1000ft long warehouse which had an adjoining 2000ft field. In this field, they built the set of the oil tankers deck, again constructed using forced perspective. Using the forced perspective trick, the 500ft long set could be constructed to give the impression that it was really twice as long.

There’s more to a film than just it’s sets and filming locations. Over two thousand costumes had to be created with many of the lead actors costumes being replicated many times over due to wear and tear.

This is not an uncommon practice for film production, but due to the unique look of the people and the world they inhabit, it did create some headaches. One costume was created with so many fish scales the wardrobe department had to search the entire island of Hawaii looking for anyone who could supply in the huge quantity required.

Makeup had to use waterproof cosmetics, especially on the stunt players. As everyone had a sun burnt look, a three-sided tanning booth was setup. The extras numbering in their hundreds, with ages ranging from six to sixty-five, passed through the booth like a production line to receive their spray tan. The extras then moved onto costume before finally having their hair fixed and becoming ready for the day.

In some scenes, extras were actually painted plywood cutouts to help enhance the number of extras on the set. This can easily be seen in one particular shot on board the Deez super tanker.

Filming on the water is not only a difficult and time-consuming process but also very dangerous. It’s been reported that Jeanne Tripplehorn and Tina Majorino nearly drowned on their first day of filming.

Waterworld’s star Kevin Costner reported having a near-death experience when filming a scene in which the mariner ties himself to his catamaran to survive a storm. The pounding water caused him to black out and nearly drown.

Unbeknownst to most of the crew, Kevin Costner’s stunt double was riding his jet ski across 40 miles of open ocean between his home on Maui and the film’s set on the Big Island. When he didn’t show up for work one day, the production team phoned his wife, who informed them he had already left for work. The stunt double’s jet ski had run out of gas halfway through his “commute” and a storm had swept him farther out to sea. It took a helicopter most of the day to find him. The stunt doubles name was Laird Hamilton.

As well as the logistical problems of creating a film of this scale and on water, they also had to deal with the press who seemed intent on wanting the film to fail. Director Kevin Reynolds discusses the situation,

“It was huge, we were constantly fighting – people wanted to have bad press. That was more exciting to them than the good news. I guess the most egregious example of that that I recall was that the publicist told me that one day…we’d been out the day before and we were doing a shot where we sent two cameras up on a mast of the trimaran and we wanted to do a shot where they tilled down from the horizon down to the deck below. We’re out there, we’re anchored, we’re setting the shot up and a swell comes in, and I look over and the mast is sort of bending.

And I turned to the boatmaster and I said, “Bruno, is this safe?”. And he looks up the mast and he goes, “No”. So I said, “Okay, well, we have to get out as I can’t have two guys fall off from 40 feet up”. So, we had to break out of the set-up, and go back in a shoot something else and we lost another half-day.

Anyway, the next day the publicist is sitting in his office and he gets this call from some journalist in the States and he goes, “Okay. Don’t lie to me – I’ve had this confirmed from two different people. I want the facts, and I want to hear about the accident yesterday, we had two cameramen fall off the mast and were killed”.

And, he goes, “What are you talking about?”. And he goes, “Don’t lie to me, don’t cover this up, we know this has happened”. It didn’t happen! People were so hungry for bad news because it was much more exciting than…they just said it, and you know, it hurt us.”
Upon release, the press seemed to be disappointed that the film wasn’t the massive failure they were hoping it to be. Universal Studios told Kevin Reynolds that one critic came out of an early screening in New York and in a disappointed tone said,

“Well, it didn’t suck.”

It is true that during principle photography the slave colony set sank and had to be retrieved. However due to bad press, the rumour became much bigger and to this day when you mention the sinking set, most people assume it was the huge atoll.

During production, press nicknamed the film “Kevin’s Gate” and “Fishtar”, referring to 1980’s box office failures Heaven’s Gate and Ishtar. Heaven’s Gate failed so badly it led to the sale of United Artists Studio and has become synonymous with failure in Hollywood.

As well as the exaggerated set problems and other various production rumours, there were also difficulties with the script. In a risky move, the film was green lit and moved into production without a finalised script.

The final total is a reportedly thirty-six rewrites. One of the writers involved was Joss Whedon. Joss had worked on many scripts before becoming a director having being at the helm of both The Avengers and the sequel Avengers: Age Of Ultron. He described his experience on Waterworld as,

“Seven weeks of hell”
Everything came to a head just three weeks before the end of principle photography. Kevin Reynolds who was an old friend of Kevin Costner allegedly walked off set or was fired. There was no official statement on what happened.

When Reynolds left the production this event caused many changes to be made. Composer Mark Isham had already composed approximately two-thirds of the film’s score by the time Reynolds left and that event ultimately caused him to leave production. As Mark describes in this interview excerpt,

“Kevin Reynolds quit the film, which left me working for Kevin Costner, who listened to what I had written and wanted a completely different point of view. He basically made a completely different film — he re-cut the entire film, and in his meeting with me he expressed that he wanted a completely different approach to the score. And I said, “oh let me demonstrate that I can give that to you”, so I presented him with a demo of my approach to his approach, and he rejected that and fired me. What I find a lot in these big films, because the production schedules are so insane, that the directors have very little time to actually concentrate on the music.”
Rumours report that Costner took control of production. He directed the last few weeks of principle photography and edited the final cut of the film that was released in cinemas.

Reynolds discusses his surprise at discovering that one of the most famous scenes from what is known as the extended version, was left on the cutting room floor,

“…it would have differed from what you saw on the screen to some extent, and one of the things I’ve always been perplexed by in the version that was released, theatrically, although subsequently the longer version included it, and the reason that I did the film, was that at the very end of the picture, at the very end of the script, there’s a scene when they finally reach dry land and The Mariner’s sailing off and he leaves the two women behind, and in the script they’re standing up on this high point and they’re watching him sail away, and the little girl stumbles on something.
And they look down and clear the grass away and that’s this plaque. And it says, “Here, near this spot, 1953, Tenzing Norgay and Edmund Hillary first set foot on the summit of Everest”. And that was in script and I was like, “Oh, of course! Wow, the highest point on the planet! That would have been dry land!”. And we got it! We shot that. And they left it out of the picture. And I’m like, “Whaaat?!”. It’s like the Statue of Liberty moment in Planet of the Apes. And I was like, “Why would you leave that out?”

Written by John Abbitt | Follow John on twitter @UKFilmNerd

If any the crew cares to share any of their experiences on it please comment.
Thanks for reading
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