關於 中超2022 ，我們在網路上蒐集到這些相關的討論、資訊與評價

🌻Docusign(DOCU), Crowdstrike(CRWD)財報結果
上週這兩家公司發表財報了.

這兩天看了一下他們的財報結果. Again, 兩家的表現都很好, 但發現分析師給DOCU的調價(往上)幅度比較多, 就好奇研究了一下SaaS公司是怎麼被估值的. 有興趣的話可以看看(從中學習到很多. 非常推薦一讀):
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2021/09/blog-post.html

(By the way, 分析師對CRWD的價格調幅沒那麼大, 主因是成長趨緩了. 而DOCU的free cash flow佔營收比, 以及顧客黏著力在這季創了新高, 是讓分析師按讚的幾個原因).

關於CRWD: "The Street is already modeling revenue growth deceleration in 2022 to 36%, down from 60% expected in 2021, which on its own might prove a hurdle for a stock already trading at a high multiple," said Bank of America analyst Tal Liani in a report.

分析師對於DOCU的評價:
• 11位buy; 給的價格分別是: $310, $320 (x2), $330 (x2), $340 (x2), $345, $350, $350, $389
• 給Buy的分析師的評語:
o Baird: The analyst continues to view them as a best in class way to play digital transformation trends with strong growth, cash flow and profitability, and a strong competitive position. Power said DocuSign remains one of his top long-term compounding growth ideas.
o Citi: While slightly shy of the double-digit billings beat in recent quarters, DocuSign still delivered a solid 8% beat to Q2 billings, which grew 47% year-over-year, Radke tells investors in a research note.
o Evercore ISI: he calls "another strong quarter." While some may have wanted to see more aggressive Q3 billings guidance, he believes estimates "continue to leave room for upside," Materne said.
o JMP Securities: While revenue growth decelerated to 50% from 58% in Q1, the company is the clear leader in electronic signature and the broader system of agreement having crossed over 1M customers with a $2B run rate this quarter, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that he sees lots of room for growth as DocuSign targets a $50B total addressable market.
o Needham: The analyst commented, "Docusign reported another strong quarter in 2QF22 with typical DOCU upside to revenue and profitability. Sales metrics and growth decelerated Q/Q, as we expected against a massive pandemic quarter, but at a much slower rate than we believe much of the Street was anticipating. 65k net new customers was lower than the 70k - 90 range of CY20 but was still more than 2x greater than any pre-pandemic quarter, highlighting a strong end-market driving 47% billings growth against a strong comp. Commentary on incremental Agreement Cloud demand was positive, suggesting an additional growth tailwind combined with solid international can further aid 2HF22. Although DOCU shares could be lower near-term due to weak 2H OpMg guidance, we think this guidance is conservative, as the recent OM was greater than the pre-pandemic level even with tough comps."
o RBC Capital: The quarter highlighted the sustainability of the company's tailwinds post-pandemic as most of its underlying metrics such as billings and net revenue retention were solid, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that the traction with CLM and Notary was also "impressive".

分析師對於CRWD的評價:
• 12位buy; 給的價格分別是: $300, $310 (x2), $313, $315 (x2) , $305, $320, $325, $330 (x2), $340
• 1位給hold: $280 (from $220 by J.P. Morgan(same))
• 給Buy的分析師的評語:
o Baird: The analyst believes the company has significant room for growth with core modules, opportunities with Humio and in cloud workload security, among others, should help drive a continuation of strong growth over a long time horizon.
o BTIG: The company's "strong" Q2 results "cleared every hurdle", even though the buy-side benchmarks may have been slightly higher, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Powell adds that Crowdstrike is clearly gaining share in its core endpoint security target market at a rapid pace and gaining traction with new products across multiple categories.
o Canaccord: The analyst said the stock is down from its recent highs, and he thinks the re-rating creates a more favorable entry point for longer-oriented investors for a foundational security name. He views Crowdstrike as a long-term secular winner in security due to its native cloud platform advantage versus closely held peers in endpoint security combined with platform expansion into tangential segments to capture greater share of security budgets.
o Goldman Sachs: CrowdStrike last night delivered "another beat and raise quarter as the company benefited from another quarter of elevated demand," Essex said. But it traded lower following net new annual recurring revenue growth guidance that was slightly less than investors had hoped for. Essex, nonetheless, said the quarter demonstrated CrowdStrike's "ability to continue to go down market efficiently."
o JMP Securities: The analyst notes the company's Q2 annualized recurring revenue of $1.34B topping his estimate of $1.30B, with "sustained" 70% ARR and revenue growth along with margin upside seen as key highlights for the quarter. Suppiger adds that the metrics reflect Crowdstrike's "strong execution and robust demand environment".
o Mizuho: "very good" fiscal Q2 results. The annual recurring revenue growth of 70% year-over-year "was strong and still nicely surpassed" the Street's 65%-66% estimate, Moskowitz tells investors in a research note. He believes "strong execution can propel" Crowdstrike's stock higher.
o Piper Sandler: The company's metrics "outperformed across the board" in Q2 with 70% annual recurring revenue and revenue growth and record net new customer adds in the quarter, Owens tells investors in a research note.
o RBC Capital: Hedberg adds that CrowdStrike's record pipeline entering Q3 should continue to fuel the company's "land-and-expand" momentum.
o Stifel: Q2 results that he said "exceeded consensus estimates across all major financial metrics." He continues to believe that Crowdstrike's growth opportunity "remains in the early days" despite the company's scale given continued share capture within its core endpoint security market and incremental module adoption on the Falcon Platform, Reback tells investors.
o UBS: the company reported "pretty good" Q2 results against high expectations.

🌻趨勢: 跨境電商 Cross-border commerce
Morgan Stanley:
From our perspective, we think many are underestimating what the cross-border eCommerce demand could ultimately be, once key friction points like FX rates, tax and duties, shipping, language, etc are smoothed—all issues that Global-E directly addresses.

Cross-border ecommerce brings new, high-yield volume: We think elevated levels of cross-border ecommerce (ex-travel) is a structural shift thathas yet to be fully contemplated in MA (and V)'s long-term forecasts. MA's cross-border CNP ex-travel volume was 69% above 2019's level in 2Q and 63% higher in 1Q. Strength reflects both broader ecommerce adoption plus globalization of commerce, as marketplaces and services that reduce cross-border friction (such as those from GLBE) make international online ordering more readily adopted. Early data at V suggests greater cross-border ecommerce spend is persisting even in areas with pre-pandemic levels of international travel. Cross-border transactions also come at a higher yield, making us more optimistic that the trend can bring incremental long-term growth to the networks.

產業的潮流是有連貫性的. 疫情讓電商更發達後, 接下來應該就是加速電商跨境了. 跨境的話, 有很多問題需要解決(稅率, 語言, etc.) 這就需要有公司來做整合的動作. 這種跨境, 也可以想像是omnichannel的一種呈現.

Harley Finkelstein (President of Shopify): "I mean I think commerce in 2021 is cross-border."

🌻SPAC熱潮退卻，初創市值蒸發750億美元
"SPAC熱潮已經退卻。分析顯示，在2月中旬以前完成合併的137家SPAC的總市值已經蒸發25%，市值回落幅度上個月一度超過1,000億美元。"

"像貝萊德(BlackRock Inc., BLK)和富達投資(Fidelity Investments Inc.)這類企業管理的基金，以及許多對沖基金、養老金管理公司和其他一些投資者，都在SPAC的回落中遭受了衝擊，他們在去年年底開始的熱潮中競相投資SPAC。其中許多基金由於在價格還很低的時候就早早入場，所以現在仍坐擁可觀收益。事實上，SPAC市值仍有約2,500億美元，高於一年前的約1,000億美元，反映出這期間股價上漲和新公司上市的影響。

但即便如此，今年年初令人炫目的回報還是讓許多後來者做了接盤俠，扎堆投資所謂穩賺不賠的領域，其永恆的風險可見一斑。在過去的幾個月裡，一些投資者眼睜睜看著帳面財富縮水。"

"股價下跌會在SPAC領域形成惡性循環，因為投資者有權在併購交易前從空白支票公司撤資。一旦SPAC跌破發行價，投資者就更有可能這樣做，而許多SPAC的股價現在正處於這樣的水平。目前，在尚未宣布併購交易的空白支票公司中，超過95%的公司股價低於發行價。

投資者的大規模撤資會讓已經上市的空白支票公司手上的現金大幅減少，讓其更難實現業務目標，並可能加劇股價跌勢。"

https://on.wsj.com/3n6JznC

🌻BNPL (buy now pay later)
But most BNPL providers including Affirm, Klarna and Afterpay have been losing money despite breakneck revenue growth as they invest heavily in marketing to win share. Sweden-based Klarna’s credit losses more than doubled in the second quarter. Affirm has projected adjusted operating losses of $50m-$55m for the fiscal year that ended June 30.

The path to profitability for many of these companies was to achieve massive scale, analysts said.

https://www.ft.com/content/ca201a37-a16d-4223-b123-04d38350a972

Pictures: 一葉知秋; from EarningsWhispers

🛣🛣#中路三號 2022年3月完工👷👷

即將於2022年3月完工! #內政部長徐國勇 2021年5月10日在 #桃園市長鄭文燦 的邀約下，出席上梁典禮，徐國勇表示，政府規劃在桃園要蓋1.2萬戶社宅，其中超過2/3、約8千餘戶，是由桃園市政府興辦，非常感謝鄭市長大力蓋社宅，內政部除補助桃園62億元外，也將由國家住都中心蓋4千戶，讓民眾住得更安穩。

MyGoNews不動產網路新聞粉絲團

#T2DM治療藥物對心肌代謝的影響 (1)

SGLT-2i和 GLP-1 RA在2型糖尿病患者中產生積極心血管保護作用的機制仍有待確定。這些抗糖尿病藥物之有益心臟作用可能是因改變心肌代謝所引導的。常見的代謝異常，包括代謝（胰島素阻抗）症候群和T2DM，與心肌基質利用率和能量傳遞的改變有關，而導致易患心臟病。因此，衰竭的心臟的特徵在於基質之糖分解和酮氧化的轉變，產生更多高能量，以合乎衰竭的心肌需求。

重點摘要：
#心臟代謝的生物工程學顯示一種改善心功能並減慢心肌疾病進展的新策略。
#SGLT-2 i，GLP-1 RA對心肌代謝的改變可以減少T2DM病患的CV事件。
#將來的試驗中應研究改變燃料利用途徑對HF患者的潛在益處。

心血管疾病(CVD)是西方世界的主要死亡原因。儘管在過去40年中，美國的年齡標準化心臟病死亡率降低了近70％，但預計到2030年，心衰竭(HF)的患病率將顯著增加46％。

人的心臟每單位質量的氧氣需求量最高(4.3 mmol / kg·min)，並且依賴於三磷酸腺苷(ATP)的持續供應來維持幫浦功能。通過專門的線粒體系統可以維持運作。在禁食的條件下，游離脂肪酸(FFA)是被心肌氧化生成ATP的主要燃料。這些基底質FFA的粹取使用，糖分解與葡萄糖氧化，不只是心肌細胞重編程(reprogramming)的生化指標，左心室重塑，也代表了左心室收縮或舒張功能異常的病生理機轉。

參與興奮-收縮作用的蛋白質（包括肌球蛋白ATPase，肌漿/內質網Ca 2+ ATPase和Na +/K + ATPase）的合成和作用是心臟的主要能量消耗者。為了維持其收縮功能，心臟已經發展出一種專門的能量系統，可以產生大量的ATP，而與生理狀態無關。

在成年心臟中，線粒體佔據了心肌細胞體積的三分之一以上，反映出高的心肌氧化能力。在正常氧條件下，心臟ATP產生的95％以上來自線粒體內膜的氧化磷酸化，其餘5％來自糖分解和檸檬酸循環。ATP的磷酸鍵通過肌酸激酶(CK)系統轉移到磷酸肌酸(PCr)，後者將這種能量傳遞給位於收縮蛋白附近的胞質ADP。PCr是完整心肌的主要能量儲備，通過CK反應產生的ATP比通過氧化磷酸化產生的ATP快10倍。如果不持續快速產生新的ATP分子，則心肌ATP池將在10秒內消耗掉。

#脂肪酸是心臟的主要基質

在出生時，心臟經歷了劇烈的線粒體生物發生(biogenesis)，這導致心臟對葡萄糖的依賴性下降，長鏈FA成為心肌的主要基質。過氧化物酶體增殖物激活的受體-γcoactivator-1（PCG-1）α和PGC-1β是這種線粒體生物反應所必需的。在成年心臟中，FAs的氧化構成了ATP的主要來源。儘管用於產生ATP的能量基質效率較低，但FAs的燃燒每2個碳部分釋放的能量比其他基質更多。

心肌FA攝取主要由血漿FFA濃度驅動，但也由轉運蛋白的驅動，即脂肪酸轉位酶CD36和質膜脂肪酸結合蛋白（FABP pm）。在健康的正常葡萄糖耐量受試者中，超過80％的提取的脂肪酰基輔酶A會經歷快速氧化，並且只有少量的脂肪酰基輔酶A被存儲為Triglyceride。Fatty acyl-CoA 通過線粒體carnitine system運輸到線粒體中，其中carnitine palmitoyltransferase-I (CPT-I)催化通過β-氧化途徑，是控制通量的限速步驟。malonylCoA導致FA氧化速率降低。

#葡萄糖代謝與壓力下的心臟

心肌葡萄糖的吸收是由跨質膜的葡萄糖梯度(Gradient)和質膜中葡萄糖轉運蛋白驅動。胰島素，運動和局部缺血會刺激該過程，FAs會抑制這一過程。一旦進入心肌細胞，葡萄糖就會進行糖分解，從而產生2個丙酮酸(pyruvate)，2個ATP和2個NADH分子。糖分解的限速酶是磷酸果糖激酶-1 (phosphofructokinase-1)，可被ATP，檸檬酸和降低的組織pH抑制。相反，通過運動和局部缺血激活AMPK (adenosine monophosphate-activated protein kinase) 可以通過激活phosphofructokinase-2，產生果糖2,6-雙磷酸酯 (fructose2,6-bisphosphate) 來刺激糖分解通量。

於缺氧或增加工作情況下，或富含碳水化合物的膳食後，正常的心臟移從脂肪吸取移向碳水化合物利用。這種應激誘導的基質轉移是因為通過糖分解（以及丙酮酸轉化為乳酸）產生的ATP不需要氧氣。此外，1個葡萄糖分子的氧化產生31個ATP分子並消耗12個氧原子（磷/氧[P/O]比為2.58），而1個棕櫚酸酯分子(palmitate molecule)的完全氧化產生105個ATP分子並消耗46個氧原子（P/O比為2.33）。因此，從脂肪完全轉變為碳水化合物的氧化將使心肌的氧氣利用率提高12％至14％，這對於處於壓力下的心臟是有益的。對於生理和病理激發效應，使心肌轉向葡萄糖的利用，其影響因素，包括缺氧誘導因子-1 (hypoxia-inducible factor-1) 的激活和PPARα-PGC-1α軸信號的下調。當心肌缺血時，這種從脂肪轉為為葡萄糖氧化的轉變，對心臟具有重要的臨床意義。糖尿病的心臟有顯箸的胰島素阻抗，缺氧時易遭受心肌損傷。

深入閱讀～～
https://reurl.cc/E204x1

資料來源：
J Am Coll Cardiol 2021, 77(16) 2022-2039

淡海新市鎮的人口持續在成長，生活機能和交通建設也陸續升級當中，預計2022年淡海新市鎮也將有第二間小學開始招生，但新市鎮的家長和孩子卻還等不到一間國中。

從人口來看，新市國小近年來有上百位的孩子在等待候補，甚或到了去年開始，連周邊的新興、天生、育英國小也都成了額滿學校。儘管在107學年度宣布展開淡海國小新設校，但直到111學年度，才真正能解決新市鎮孩子就近就學的問題，若教育局缺乏超前部署的遠見，那國中將重演這個問題。

而不光是人口，新市鎮的孩子前往正德國中、淡水國中的路途，缺乏直達的公車路線、家長接送將給周邊交通帶來更大混亂，就算是步行上下學都因為缺乏人行道需要與車爭道。

宇恩希望教育局正是展開淡海新市鎮國中新設校的可行性評估，為新市鎮的孩子超前部署一間國中！

#淡海新市鎮 #新設國中 #超前部署