🌻Docusign(DOCU), Crowdstrike(CRWD)財報結果
上週這兩家公司發表財報了.
這兩天看了一下他們的財報結果. Again, 兩家的表現都很好, 但發現分析師給DOCU的調價(往上)幅度比較多, 就好奇研究了一下SaaS公司是怎麼被估值的. 有興趣的話可以看看(從中學習到很多. 非常推薦一讀):
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2021/09/blog-post.html
(By the way, 分析師對CRWD的價格調幅沒那麼大, 主因是成長趨緩了. 而DOCU的free cash flow佔營收比, 以及顧客黏著力在這季創了新高, 是讓分析師按讚的幾個原因).
關於CRWD: "The Street is already modeling revenue growth deceleration in 2022 to 36%, down from 60% expected in 2021, which on its own might prove a hurdle for a stock already trading at a high multiple," said Bank of America analyst Tal Liani in a report.
分析師對於DOCU的評價:
• 11位buy; 給的價格分別是: $310, $320 (x2), $330 (x2), $340 (x2), $345, $350, $350, $389
• 給Buy的分析師的評語:
o Baird: The analyst continues to view them as a best in class way to play digital transformation trends with strong growth, cash flow and profitability, and a strong competitive position. Power said DocuSign remains one of his top long-term compounding growth ideas.
o Citi: While slightly shy of the double-digit billings beat in recent quarters, DocuSign still delivered a solid 8% beat to Q2 billings, which grew 47% year-over-year, Radke tells investors in a research note.
o Evercore ISI: he calls "another strong quarter." While some may have wanted to see more aggressive Q3 billings guidance, he believes estimates "continue to leave room for upside," Materne said.
o JMP Securities: While revenue growth decelerated to 50% from 58% in Q1, the company is the clear leader in electronic signature and the broader system of agreement having crossed over 1M customers with a $2B run rate this quarter, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that he sees lots of room for growth as DocuSign targets a $50B total addressable market.
o Needham: The analyst commented, "Docusign reported another strong quarter in 2QF22 with typical DOCU upside to revenue and profitability. Sales metrics and growth decelerated Q/Q, as we expected against a massive pandemic quarter, but at a much slower rate than we believe much of the Street was anticipating. 65k net new customers was lower than the 70k - 90 range of CY20 but was still more than 2x greater than any pre-pandemic quarter, highlighting a strong end-market driving 47% billings growth against a strong comp. Commentary on incremental Agreement Cloud demand was positive, suggesting an additional growth tailwind combined with solid international can further aid 2HF22. Although DOCU shares could be lower near-term due to weak 2H OpMg guidance, we think this guidance is conservative, as the recent OM was greater than the pre-pandemic level even with tough comps."
o RBC Capital: The quarter highlighted the sustainability of the company's tailwinds post-pandemic as most of its underlying metrics such as billings and net revenue retention were solid, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that the traction with CLM and Notary was also "impressive".
分析師對於CRWD的評價:
• 12位buy; 給的價格分別是: $300, $310 (x2), $313, $315 (x2) , $305, $320, $325, $330 (x2), $340
• 1位給hold: $280 (from $220 by J.P. Morgan(same))
• 給Buy的分析師的評語:
o Baird: The analyst believes the company has significant room for growth with core modules, opportunities with Humio and in cloud workload security, among others, should help drive a continuation of strong growth over a long time horizon.
o BTIG: The company's "strong" Q2 results "cleared every hurdle", even though the buy-side benchmarks may have been slightly higher, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Powell adds that Crowdstrike is clearly gaining share in its core endpoint security target market at a rapid pace and gaining traction with new products across multiple categories.
o Canaccord: The analyst said the stock is down from its recent highs, and he thinks the re-rating creates a more favorable entry point for longer-oriented investors for a foundational security name. He views Crowdstrike as a long-term secular winner in security due to its native cloud platform advantage versus closely held peers in endpoint security combined with platform expansion into tangential segments to capture greater share of security budgets.
o Goldman Sachs: CrowdStrike last night delivered "another beat and raise quarter as the company benefited from another quarter of elevated demand," Essex said. But it traded lower following net new annual recurring revenue growth guidance that was slightly less than investors had hoped for. Essex, nonetheless, said the quarter demonstrated CrowdStrike's "ability to continue to go down market efficiently."
o JMP Securities: The analyst notes the company's Q2 annualized recurring revenue of $1.34B topping his estimate of $1.30B, with "sustained" 70% ARR and revenue growth along with margin upside seen as key highlights for the quarter. Suppiger adds that the metrics reflect Crowdstrike's "strong execution and robust demand environment".
o Mizuho: "very good" fiscal Q2 results. The annual recurring revenue growth of 70% year-over-year "was strong and still nicely surpassed" the Street's 65%-66% estimate, Moskowitz tells investors in a research note. He believes "strong execution can propel" Crowdstrike's stock higher.
o Piper Sandler: The company's metrics "outperformed across the board" in Q2 with 70% annual recurring revenue and revenue growth and record net new customer adds in the quarter, Owens tells investors in a research note.
o RBC Capital: Hedberg adds that CrowdStrike's record pipeline entering Q3 should continue to fuel the company's "land-and-expand" momentum.
o Stifel: Q2 results that he said "exceeded consensus estimates across all major financial metrics." He continues to believe that Crowdstrike's growth opportunity "remains in the early days" despite the company's scale given continued share capture within its core endpoint security market and incremental module adoption on the Falcon Platform, Reback tells investors.
o UBS: the company reported "pretty good" Q2 results against high expectations.
🌻趨勢: 跨境電商 Cross-border commerce
Morgan Stanley:
From our perspective, we think many are underestimating what the cross-border eCommerce demand could ultimately be, once key friction points like FX rates, tax and duties, shipping, language, etc are smoothed—all issues that Global-E directly addresses.
Cross-border ecommerce brings new, high-yield volume: We think elevated levels of cross-border ecommerce (ex-travel) is a structural shift thathas yet to be fully contemplated in MA (and V)'s long-term forecasts. MA's cross-border CNP ex-travel volume was 69% above 2019's level in 2Q and 63% higher in 1Q. Strength reflects both broader ecommerce adoption plus globalization of commerce, as marketplaces and services that reduce cross-border friction (such as those from GLBE) make international online ordering more readily adopted. Early data at V suggests greater cross-border ecommerce spend is persisting even in areas with pre-pandemic levels of international travel. Cross-border transactions also come at a higher yield, making us more optimistic that the trend can bring incremental long-term growth to the networks.
產業的潮流是有連貫性的. 疫情讓電商更發達後, 接下來應該就是加速電商跨境了. 跨境的話, 有很多問題需要解決(稅率, 語言, etc.) 這就需要有公司來做整合的動作. 這種跨境, 也可以想像是omnichannel的一種呈現.
Harley Finkelstein (President of Shopify): "I mean I think commerce in 2021 is cross-border."
🌻SPAC熱潮退卻，初創市值蒸發750億美元
"SPAC熱潮已經退卻。分析顯示，在2月中旬以前完成合併的137家SPAC的總市值已經蒸發25%，市值回落幅度上個月一度超過1,000億美元。"
"像貝萊德(BlackRock Inc., BLK)和富達投資(Fidelity Investments Inc.)這類企業管理的基金，以及許多對沖基金、養老金管理公司和其他一些投資者，都在SPAC的回落中遭受了衝擊，他們在去年年底開始的熱潮中競相投資SPAC。其中許多基金由於在價格還很低的時候就早早入場，所以現在仍坐擁可觀收益。事實上，SPAC市值仍有約2,500億美元，高於一年前的約1,000億美元，反映出這期間股價上漲和新公司上市的影響。
但即便如此，今年年初令人炫目的回報還是讓許多後來者做了接盤俠，扎堆投資所謂穩賺不賠的領域，其永恆的風險可見一斑。在過去的幾個月裡，一些投資者眼睜睜看著帳面財富縮水。"
"股價下跌會在SPAC領域形成惡性循環，因為投資者有權在併購交易前從空白支票公司撤資。一旦SPAC跌破發行價，投資者就更有可能這樣做，而許多SPAC的股價現在正處於這樣的水平。目前，在尚未宣布併購交易的空白支票公司中，超過95%的公司股價低於發行價。
投資者的大規模撤資會讓已經上市的空白支票公司手上的現金大幅減少，讓其更難實現業務目標，並可能加劇股價跌勢。"
https://on.wsj.com/3n6JznC
🌻BNPL (buy now pay later)
But most BNPL providers including Affirm, Klarna and Afterpay have been losing money despite breakneck revenue growth as they invest heavily in marketing to win share. Sweden-based Klarna’s credit losses more than doubled in the second quarter. Affirm has projected adjusted operating losses of $50m-$55m for the fiscal year that ended June 30.
The path to profitability for many of these companies was to achieve massive scale, analysts said.
https://www.ft.com/content/ca201a37-a16d-4223-b123-04d38350a972
Pictures: 一葉知秋; from EarningsWhispers
財富縮水 在 [新聞] 財富縮水！月底吃土族恐逾四百萬人- 看板Salary 的推薦與評價
※ [本文轉錄自 Stock 看板 #1XQCuGgk ]
作者: Reewalker (報告饅頭班長不夠) 看板: Stock
標題: [新聞] 財富縮水！月底吃土族恐逾四百萬人
時間: Fri Oct 15 08:40:45 2021
原文標題：
財富縮水！月底吃土族恐逾四百萬人
原文連結：
https://today.line.me/tw/v2/article/j7yg1QL?utm_source=lineshare
發布時間：
三立新聞網
更新於 17小時前
原文內容：
記者李鴻典／台北報導
面對突如其來的本土疫情，經濟一度飽受衝擊，導致多數勞工難調薪，甚至收入減少、財
富縮水，準備啟動「開源節流」計畫度日了嗎？yes123求職網進行「疫情年斜槓族與抗漲
脫貧調查」，結果在今（14）日出爐。
調查顯示，評估現階段財務狀況，合計有四成四(43.9%)的上班族透露，目前是每月薪水
幾乎快花光，甚至透支的「月底吃土族」，而且又分成：24.6%屬於「是，且需要借貸度
日」，等於處於「負儲蓄」的窘境；19.3%屬於「是，但還不用借貸度日」。
相反的，如果不是「月底吃土族」，平均每個月可以存9,282元，但其中合計僅有39.5%人
，每月能存到「一萬塊(含)以上」。若以「全體受僱就業者」914.4萬人推估，潛在的「
月底吃土族」，恐怕將上看401萬人。
實際上若想應付「生活上所有開銷」，僅有15.7%的人，覺得光靠目前自己(一人)工作的
薪水夠用；代表其餘84.3%覺得個人的薪水「不夠用」，而且又分成：45%屬於「實際上不
夠用，但尚未因疫情關係狀況惡化」，39.3%屬於「實際上不夠用，且因疫情關係狀況惡
化」。
同樣以「全體受僱就業者」914.4萬人估計，潛在的「薪貧族」，恐怕更上看771萬人。想
要收入能夠用，擺脫「薪貧族」的命運，平均預估月薪要增加9,995元，將近一萬塊；其
中甚至有14%的人認為，需要調薪「兩萬元(含)以上」。
更糟糕的是，今年曾經因為「肺炎疫情」關係，有66.6%的勞工透露，因此導致「總財富
」減少(縮水)；難怪若以「總財富」來衡量，有高達91.2%的人指出，目前「沒有」經濟
安全感。而且若無安全感，「生活開銷壓力」的來源，在可複選狀況下，主要依序為：「
食」(67.3%)、「住」(53.5%)、「行」(32.7%)；其次才是：「育」(29.4%)、「樂」
(27.1%)、「衣」(19.3%)。
針對每日開銷控管，在今年第四季，合計有八成九(89.4%)的上班族透露，「有抗漲計畫
」：其中44.4%是「同時有省錢與省水電(節能)計畫」；38.8%為「只有省錢計劃」；6.2%
是「只有省水電(節能)計劃」。因此換算下來：83.2%屬於「有省錢計畫」；50.6%屬於「
有省水電(節能)計劃」。
如果第四季有省水電(節能)計畫，在可複選狀況下，主要居家方法依序為：「隨手關燈」
(88%)、「減少使用冷氣、暖氣次數」(74.2%)、「大白天少開燈」(61.2%)，以及「不使
用的家電，馬上拔插頭」(47.7%)、「家裡改用節能燈具」(45.6%)。
其他節能方法，又分別為：「改去公共場吹冷氣、暖氣」(40.8%)、「使用省水型馬桶，
或裝兩段式沖水配件」(37.6%)、「改用變頻家電」(30.8%)，以及「用洗菜、洗衣、洗碗
、洗澡剩水，來澆花、洗車、擦地板」(28.9%)、「盆浴改為淋浴，且時間控制在五分鐘
以內」(26.7%)。最後上班族更期望，透過整個省錢或節能的「抗漲計畫」，一個月平均
能省下3,653元，大概一天要少花122塊。
綜觀本次調查結果，yes123求職網發言人楊宗斌憂心認為，勞工朋友一旦變成「月底吃土
族」，為了財務的收支平衡，一切皆以「省錢至上」為原則，將無力兼顧到生活品質。從
長期來看，「過度省錢」的結果，只儲蓄、不消費，對台灣內需經濟而言，其實並非好事
，可能又形成惡性循環：消費不振，導致廠商業績不振，然後衝擊調薪意願，最後持續低
薪化，繼續陷入低度成長的「悶經濟」困境。
楊宗斌進一步分析，有些開銷能想辦法馬上減少，不過有些開銷卻很難立刻降低，例如房
租和房貸：這類每個月固定的支出，勢必變成一筆沉重的經濟負擔，特別是對離鄉求職或
已結婚生子的勞工。
楊宗斌更指出，除非屬於「雙薪家庭」，否則很難有個窩，特別對想在大城市買房與工作
的人，恐怕非常吃力。雖然有社會住宅與低利青年貸款政策，但根本解決之道，仍要靠薪
資水準明顯提高：有賴產業結構積極轉型，以及改善投資環境，吸引企業設廠、擴點，帶
動就業機會的增加。
疫情年斜槓族與抗漲脫貧調查是由yes123求職網於2021年9月22日到10月7日，以網路問卷
進行抽樣，調查20歲(含)以上、已畢業或退伍(免役)的求職會員，有效問卷共1,303份，
信心水準為95%，誤差值為正負2.71%。
心得/評論： ※必需填寫滿20字
股市創新高
經濟幾十年來最好
怎麼跟ＸＸＸ說得不一樣？
這些人都不買股票？
--
如何嘴砲 反駁對方的重點──◢◣█確實指出人家論點的錯誤性 ψQSWEET
駁斥──────◢ ◣█用引言指出對方錯誤或矛盾的地方( █優質論文)
在嘴砲王 相反的觀點──◢████◣█列出相反的論點並以事實當證據( █ 辯論社)
應該出現 矛盾────◢██████◣█列出相反的論點但不加以證實( ██論壇)
的元素 攻擊態度─◢████████◣█質疑對方的態度和口氣 ( ██匿名版)
人身攻擊↘偏見↗ ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄█攻擊身份和能耐█幹你娘(█ 小朋友)
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 117.56.71.99 (臺灣)
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1634258448.A.AAE.html
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
※ 轉錄者: Reewalker (117.56.71.99 臺灣), 10/15/2021 08:52:55
... <看更多>