[大師冇點你] 真係咪Q講笑,以前我返星展,都應該寫啲咁嘅嘢,仲要冇後面咩每日一圖 Good Read嗰啲。甚至我而家寫得仲好過當年,詳細過當年。仲要我而家係6點鐘已經寫完send 埋,換著以前?下午四五點啦
當然一個關鍵係,我寫完陣間食埋早餐就瞓,星展唔會畀我咁做。但亦證明根本佢哋以為高薪厚職,但啲繁文縟節係完全拖低生產力,又要跟格式呀又要乜柒。我肯定當年啲客寧願我半夜寫完然後瞓覺,好過我返到公司先寫。「最理想梗係你4點起身寫完然後返公司開會添」,係呀可。但,why join the navy when you can be pirate?而家我就有資格講啦!既然根本我自己直接賣畀讀者都得,咁以前啲錢咩人拎走?
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勞蘇講完,講正題。萬眾期待聯儲局議息會議。
講到尾,睇你點睇,都係narrative,fit story.我見報紙嘅頭條係:聯儲局2023年加2次息,股市重挫,債息狂升。
但,講真,邊個care 2023年發生嘅事?股市當然炒預期,但我當呢個月股災都好,咁接下嚟2021年下半年你可以做乜?繼續擔心2年之後未必會出現嘅加息?點講都唔合符常識。市場反映嘅「預期」可以幾遠?唔易量化,但目測最多咪一年半年?
Patreon入面,我同你睇返聯儲局嘅 點陣圖。冇錯,2023年加兩次息,3月嗰時冇講。但,上次一樣都有幾條友(圖中一粒粒豆鼓)覺得2023年加息,只係今次開始夠半數,變成共識。非常正路
另外,Patreon我有同你睇晒聯儲局兩次嘅經濟數據預測。個個只係留意2021年佢上調咗,但鬼唔知咩,上半場入咗2球你全場開入球小個賠率當然變晒啦。
個重點係:2022 2023嘅通脹預測,差不多完全冇郁!根本完全符合返聯儲局覺得通脹只係暫時嘅劇本。
仲有,福爾摩斯話齋,唔好睇有乜發生,睇有乜冇發生。局方完全冇討論收水,亦冇打算停買債。
咁你話,跌乜?痴線,即使最深時都不過係400點,1.5%都唔夠。咁又話大跌嘅,返屋企食老少平安啦,股市好危險架!況且,你可以睇下時間,根本係出聲明前跌,出完收復唔少失地。
仲有,你不妨望下個VIX,唔知發生咩事嘅,Patreon入面有講。
債息呢?冇錯係彈升,1.50%彈到1.60%,都算多。但亦不過返返月頭嘅水平。呢下亦都幾合理,因為擺明短期聯儲局唔會做啲乜了,通脹短期會持續。
至於最後一個問題?既然短期通脹會上,咁影唔影響企業盈利?用個好簡單嘅例子答你:人類N咁多年嘅歷史都係通脹,但企業盈利亦係越升越高,企業盈利部份咪嚟自通脹咯!股價係nominal thing嘛。企業盈利都係。
你話:唔係喎,成本會上升喎。成本上升?當然係轉嫁落去消費者身上。你以為你加人工 收支票嘅錢,企業會唔渣乾你?
當然,唔係所有企業有咁嘅能力。但,就係最大嘅公司咪有啲能力,而指數入面就係最大嘅公司。都係嗰句,NetFlix下個月加價10%,你係咪轉睇TVB?
應下景,每日一圖甚至Good Read都係經濟嘢。
第一個圖,見到美國企業負債比率(相對GDP)去到70年新高!咁末日論嘅又會覺得,加息你仲唔仆街?但根本係本末倒置:就係因為你低息我先借咁多錢嘛!做回購又好,買嘢又好,乜都得。成件事係掉轉睇:咁情況下,可以有幾多加息空間?唔好忘記政府嘅情況都係咁!
仲唔信嘅,我嘅理論係好似乒乓波或藍球彈地咁,越彈越冇力。2005一浸加息加到5%,2015上一浸只係加到3%左右。下次呢?你覺得點?
第二個圖,講返有幾多通脹,係嚟自舊年嘅低基數效應。舊年呢個時間,好多價格都跌落去(機票錢,酒店租之類)。所以聯儲局嗰套「只係暫時」似乎合理的。詳情就睇文啦。
Good Read 兩篇。第一篇講 High frequency Indicator,唔係高頻交易,而係經濟指票。實情你去數下有幾多人搭地鐵,有幾多人訂餐廳,咪知個recovery係點咯。我根本唔使等到第二季完晒之後再多一個月,政府出嚟公佈,我先知經濟得唔得。咁呢啲嘢有乜Implication?就文入面講
第二篇,教你如何做sell side economist,十分正點。我特別鍾意講圖嘅一段,搞錄如下:
Mastering Chartism: It is possible to show a relationship between almost any two variables in macroeconomics as long as you can display them on two axes and are willing to spend enough time manipulating the second axis, experimenting with data lags, inversions or various moving averages. If you still can’t make the relationship work, extend your history to cover the Global Financial Crisis; everything looks correlated during the GFC.
係喎,你可以Google返篇文出嚟,貼得出嚟唔怕畀你搵,反正都係免費文。但冇我嘅導讀,「冇我嘅練馬師,你嘥咗隻馬喎」。快啲重金禮聘個練馬師,即係我啦。正如咩聯儲局議息聲明,點陣圖,呢啲全部都公開資料啦。但,冇我嘅導讀,「嘥咗隻馬喎」。
佢冇話你知咩?
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同時也有1部Youtube影片,追蹤數超過24萬的網紅神王TV,也在其Youtube影片中提到,最終回です レバレッジドローンやCLOを、日本の銀行が断れない裏話 ゆうちょ銀行などの日本人の貯金と日本の農業などが、アメリカのヤバい金融商品のせいで、ぶっ潰されるかもしれないという衝撃の真実を解説します 農林中金(JAバンク)、三菱UFJフィナンシャルグループ、三井住友銀行、みずほ銀行、三井住友信...
2015 financial crisis 在 股癌 Gooaye Facebook 的最佳貼文
最近在很多海內外報導上看到有一位號稱預知了日本股市反轉、網路泡沫,和在金融海嘯提前撤出資金的投資人 Jeremy Grantham 出來喊空。這是他最新的說法:WAITING FOR THE LAST DANCE。
https://www.gmo.com/asia/research-library/waiting-for-the-last-dance/
查了一下他才發現一些好玩的事情,原來是每年都在喊空,那喊到有什麼好稀奇的,猴子都知道幾年會走熊一次。
雖然路途上一定會有新鮮韭菜被割,但隨著金融科技的進步長期來看參與市場的人只會越來越多,擦鞋童理論是過氣的說法。一批鞋童退休後,沉寂一陣子會有更多的鞋童加入,生生不息。
風險控管並不是什麼看到很多人跑去開戶、咖啡店遇到很多人看盤、或是親朋好友都在談論股票時才要注意,明明就是一個隨時都要做好準備的事情,如果買賣股票是單純看別人參與市場多與少是很奇怪的事情。
2010 – Have Cash, Wait for Stocks to Fall
https://www.cnbc.com/id/40115265
2011 – Grantham sees most global equities as ranging from “unattractive” to “very unattractive” – valuing the S&P 500 at “no more than 950.”
https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2011/08/11/doomsayer-jeremy-grantham-7-lean-years-too-optimis/
2012-Jeremy Grantham Warns 2013 Will Be A Dangerous Year For Stocks
https://www.forbes.com/sites/schifrin/2012/10/24/jeremy-grantham-warns-2013-will-be-a-dangerous-year-for-stocks/
2013- Much of everything else is once again brutally overpriced
https://www.businessinsider.com/jeremy-grantham-exciting-crashes-2013-2
2014- Big stock bubble will end badly in 2016
https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2014/05/04/grantham-big-stock-bubble-will-end-badly-in-2016/
2015- GMO founder Grantham says markets ‘ripe for major decline’ in 2016
https://www.valuewalk.com/2015/08/gmos-grantham-says-bull-run-for-another-year-then-crash/
---以上是國外網友整理,以下我接力
2016- The stock market will climb roughly 10% followed by a decline over the long term of about 60%, with the market peaking shortly after the U.S. presidential election and before the end of 2017。
https://www.canadianbusiness.com/investing/these-three-investing-legends-are-warning-of-another-market-crash/
2017- 投資者開始撤出 GMO,理由是績效不好
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/investor-bail-on-granthams-gmo-as-assets-at-company-fall-by-44-billion-2017-01-09
2018-Jeremy Grantham, who predicted the last two bubbles, warns the stock market is ready for a "melt-up"
https://www.cityam.com/jeremy-grantham-predicted-last-two-bubbles-warns-stock/
2019-The Man Who Called the 2008 Financial Crisis Says the Stock Market Will ‘Break a Lot of Hearts’ in the Next 20 Years
https://www.barrons.com/articles/jeremy-grantham-stock-market-forecast-51556208817
2020-Jeremy Grantham says this may be the 4th major market bubble of his career
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/17/jeremy-grantham-says-this-may-be-the-4th-major-market-bubble-of-his-career.html
2021-GMO’s Jeremy Grantham warns: The stock market is in a 'fully-fledged epic bubble'
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gm-os-jeremy-grantham-warns-the-stock-market-is-in-a-fullyfledged-epic-bubble-185722585.html
2015 financial crisis 在 護台胖犬 劉仕傑 Facebook 的精選貼文
【 黎安友專文 l 中國如何看待香港危機 】
美國哥倫比亞大學的資深中國通黎安友(Andrew Nathan)教授最近在《外交事務》(Foreign Affairs)雜誌的專文,值得一看。
黎安友是台灣許多中國研究學者的前輩級老師,小英總統去哥大演講時,正是他積極促成。小英在美國的僑宴,黎安友也是座上賓。
這篇文章的標題是:「中國如何看待香港危機:北京自我克制背後的真正原因」。
文章很長,而且用英文寫,需要花點時間閱讀。大家有空可以看看。
Andrew這篇文章的立論基礎,是來自北京核心圈的匿名說法。以他在學術界的地位,我相信他對消息來源已經做了足夠的事實查核或確認。
這篇文章,是在回答一個疑問:中共為何在香港事件如此自制?有人說是怕西方譴責,有人說是怕損害香港的金融地位。
都不是。這篇文章認為,上述兩者都不是中共的真實顧慮。
無論你多痛恨中共,你都必須真實面對你的敵人。
中共是搞經濟階級鬥爭起家的,當年用階級鬥爭打敗國民黨。而現在,中共正用這樣的思維處理香港議題。
文章有一句話:“China’s response has been rooted not in anxiety but in confidence.” 這句話道盡階級鬥爭的精髓。
中共一點都不焦慮。相反地,中共很有自信,香港的菁英階級及既得利益的收編群體,到最後會支持中共。
這個分化的心理基礎,來自經濟上的利益。
文中還提到,鄧小平當年給香港五十年的一國兩制,就是為了「給香港足夠的時間適應中共的政治系統」。
1997年,香港的GDP佔中國的18%。2018年,這個比例降到2.8%。
今日的香港經濟,在中共的評估,是香港需要中國,而不是中國需要香港。
中共正在在意的,是香港的高房價問題。香港的房價,在過去十年內三倍翻漲。
文章是這樣描述:
“Housing prices have tripled over the past decade; today, the median price of a house is more than 20 times the median gross annual household income. The median rent has increased by nearly 25 percent in the past six years. As many as 250,000 people are waiting for public housing. At the same time, income growth for many Hong Kong residents has fallen below the overall increase in cost of living.”
無論你同不同意這些說法,都請你試圖客觀地看看這篇文章。
有趣的是,黎安友在文章中部分論點引述了他的消息來源(但他並沒有加上個人評論),部分是他自己的觀察。
#護台胖犬劉仕傑
Instagram: old_dog_chasing_ball
新書:《 我在外交部工作 》
**
黎安友原文:
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2019-09-30/how-china-sees-hong-kong-crisis?fbclid=IwAR2PwHns5gWrw0fT0sa5LuO8zgv4PhLmkYfegtBgoOMCD3WJFI3w5NTe0S4
How China Sees the Hong Kong Crisis
The Real Reasons Behind Beijing’s Restraint
By Andrew J. Nathan September 30, 2019
Massive and sometimes violent protests have rocked Hong Kong for over 100 days. Demonstrators have put forward five demands, of which the most radical is a call for free, direct elections of Hong Kong’s chief executive and all members of the territory’s legislature: in other words, a fully democratic system of local rule, one not controlled by Beijing. As this brazen challenge to Chinese sovereignty has played out, Beijing has made a show of amassing paramilitary forces just across the border in Shenzhen. So far, however, China has not deployed force to quell the unrest and top Chinese leaders have refrained from making public threats to do so.
Western observers who remember the violent crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrators in Tiananmen Square 30 years ago have been puzzled by Beijing’s forbearance. Some have attributed Beijing’s restraint to a fear of Western condemnation if China uses force. Others have pointed to Beijing’s concern that a crackdown would damage Hong Kong’s role as a financial center for China.
But according to two Chinese scholars who have connections to regime insiders and who requested anonymity to discuss the thinking of policymakers in Beijing, China’s response has been rooted not in anxiety but in confidence. Beijing is convinced that Hong Kong’s elites and a substantial part of the public do not support the demonstrators and that what truly ails the territory are economic problems rather than political ones—in particular, a combination of stagnant incomes and rising rents. Beijing also believes that, despite the appearance of disorder, its grip on Hong Kong society remains firm. The Chinese Communist Party has long cultivated the territory’s business elites (the so-called tycoons) by offering them favorable economic access to the mainland. The party also maintains a long-standing loyal cadre of underground members in the territory. And China has forged ties with the Hong Kong labor movement and some sections of its criminal underground. Finally, Beijing believes that many ordinary citizens are fearful of change and tired of the disruption caused by the demonstrations.
Beijing therefore thinks that its local allies will stand firm and that the demonstrations will gradually lose public support and eventually die out. As the demonstrations shrink, some frustrated activists will engage in further violence, and that in turn will accelerate the movement’s decline. Meanwhile, Beijing is turning its attention to economic development projects that it believes will address some of the underlying grievances that led many people to take to the streets in the first place.
This view of the situation is held by those at the very top of the regime in Beijing, as evidenced by recent remarks made by Chinese President Xi Jinping, some of which have not been previously reported. In a speech Xi delivered in early September to a new class of rising political stars at the Central Party School in Beijing, he rejected the suggestion of some officials that China should declare a state of emergency in Hong Kong and send in the People’s Liberation Army. “That would be going down a political road of no return,” Xi said. “The central government will exercise the most patience and restraint and allow the [regional government] and the local police force to resolve the crisis.” In separate remarks that Xi made around the same time, he spelled out what he sees as the proper way to proceed: “Economic development is the only golden key to resolving all sorts of problems facing Hong Kong today.”
ONE COUNTRY, TWO SYSTEMS, MANY QUESTIONS
Chinese decision-makers are hardly surprised that Hong Kong is chafing under their rule. Beijing believes it has treated Hong Kong with a light hand and has supported the territory’s economy in many ways, especially by granting it special access to the mainland’s stocks and currency markets, exempting it from the taxes and fees that other Chinese provinces and municipalities pay the central government, and guaranteeing a reliable supply of water, electricity, gas, and food. Even so, Beijing considers disaffection among Hong Kong’s residents a natural outgrowth of the territory’s colonial British past and also a result of the continuing influence of Western values. Indeed, during the 1984 negotiations between China and the United Kingdom over Hong Kong’s future, the Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping suggested following the approach of “one country, two systems” for 50 years precisely to give people in Hong Kong plenty of time to get used to the Chinese political system.
But “one country, two systems” was never intended to result in Hong Kong spinning out of China’s control. Under the Basic Law that China crafted as Hong Kong’s “mini-constitution,” Beijing retained the right to prevent any challenge to what it considered its core security interests. The law empowered Beijing to determine if and when Hong Kongers could directly elect the territory’s leadership, allowed Beijing to veto laws passed by the Hong Kong Legislative Council, and granted China the right to make final interpretations of the Basic Law. And there would be no question about who had a monopoly of force. During the negotiations with the United Kingdom, Deng publicly rebuked a top Chinese defense official—General Geng Biao, who at the time was a patron of a rising young official named Xi Jinping—for suggesting that there might not be any need to put troops in Hong Kong. Deng insisted that a Chinese garrison was necessary to symbolize Chinese sovereignty.
Statements made by U.S. politicians in support of the recent demonstrations only confirm Beijing’s belief that Washington seeks to inflame radical sentiments in Hong Kong.
At first, Hong Kongers seemed to accept their new role as citizens of a rising China. In 1997, in a tracking poll of Hong Kong residents regularly conducted by researchers at the University of Hong Kong, 47 percent of respondents identified themselves as “proud” citizens of China. But things went downhill from there. In 2012, the Hong Kong government tried to introduce “patriotic education” in elementary and middle schools, but the proposed curriculum ran into a storm of local opposition and had to be withdrawn. In 2014, the 79-day Umbrella Movement brought hundreds of thousands of citizens into the streets to protest Beijing’s refusal to allow direct elections for the chief executive. And as authoritarianism has intensified under Xi’s rule, events such as the 2015 kidnapping of five Hong Kong–based publishers to stand trial in the mainland further soured Hong Kong opinion. By this past June, only 27 percent of respondents to the tracking poll described themselves as “proud” to be citizens of China. This year’s demonstrations started as a protest against a proposed law that would have allowed Hong Kongers suspected of criminal wrongdoing to be extradited to the mainland but then developed into a broad-based expression of discontent over the lack of democratic accountability, police brutality, and, most fundamentally, what was perceived as a mainland assault on Hong Kong’s unique identity.
Still, Chinese leaders do not blame themselves for these shifts in public opinion. Rather, they believe that Western powers, especially the United States, have sought to drive a wedge between Hong Kong and the mainland. Statements made by U.S. politicians in support of the recent demonstrations only confirm Beijing’s belief that Washington seeks to inflame radical sentiments in Hong Kong. As Xi explained in his speech in September:
As extreme elements in Hong Kong turn more and more violent, Western forces, especially the United States, have been increasingly open in their involvement. Some extreme anti-China forces in the United States are trying to turn Hong Kong into the battleground for U.S.-Chinese rivalry…. They want to turn Hong Kong's high degree of autonomy into de facto independence, with the ultimate objective to contain China's rise and prevent the revival of the great Chinese nation.
Chinese leaders do not fear that a crackdown on Hong Kong would inspire Western antagonism. Rather, they take such antagonism as a preexisting reality—one that goes a long way toward explaining why the disorder in Hong Kong broke out in the first place. In Beijing’s eyes, Western hostility is rooted in the mere fact of China’s rise, and thus there is no use in tailoring China’s Hong Kong strategy to influence how Western powers would respond.
IT’S NOT ABOUT THE BENJAMINS
The view that Xi has not deployed troops because of Hong Kong’s economic importance to the mainland is also misguided, and relies on an outdated view of the balance of economic power. In 1997, Hong Kong’s GDP was equivalent to 18 percent of the mainland’s. Most of China’s foreign trade was conducted through Hong Kong, providing China with badly needed hard currencies. Chinese companies raised most of their capital on the Hong Kong stock exchange. Today, things are vastly different. In 2018, Hong Kong’s GDP was equal to only 2.7 percent of the mainland’s. Shenzhen alone has overtaken Hong Kong in terms of GDP. Less than 12 percent of China’s exports now flow through Hong Kong. The combined market value of China’s domestic stock exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen far surpasses that of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and Chinese companies can also list in Frankfurt, London, New York, and elsewhere.
Although Hong Kong remains the largest offshore clearing center for renminbi, that role could easily be filled by London or Singapore, if Chinese leaders so desired.
Investment flowing into and out of China still tends to pass through financial holding vehicles set up in Hong Kong, in order to benefit from the region’s legal protections. But China’s new foreign investment law (which will take effect on January 1, 2020) and other recent policy changes mean that such investment will soon be able to bypass Hong Kong. And although Hong Kong remains the largest offshore clearing center for renminbi, that role could easily be filled by London or Singapore, if Chinese leaders so desired.
Wrecking Hong Kong’s economy by using military force to impose emergency rule would not be a good thing for China. But the negative effect on the mainland’s prosperity would not be strong enough to prevent Beijing from doing whatever it believes is necessary to maintain control over the territory.
CAN’T BUY ME LOVE?
As it waits out the current crisis, Beijing has already started tackling the economic problems that it believes are the source of much of the anger among Hong Kongers. Housing prices have tripled over the past decade; today, the median price of a house is more than 20 times the median gross annual household income. The median rent has increased by nearly 25 percent in the past six years. As many as 250,000 people are waiting for public housing. At the same time, income growth for many Hong Kong residents has fallen below the overall increase in cost of living.
2015 financial crisis 在 神王TV Youtube 的最佳解答
最終回です レバレッジドローンやCLOを、日本の銀行が断れない裏話 ゆうちょ銀行などの日本人の貯金と日本の農業などが、アメリカのヤバい金融商品のせいで、ぶっ潰されるかもしれないという衝撃の真実を解説します
農林中金(JAバンク)、三菱UFJフィナンシャルグループ、三井住友銀行、みずほ銀行、三井住友信託銀行、りそなホールディングス、新生銀行、あおぞら銀行の驚愕のCLO保有状況とは?
ドイツ銀行破綻とCDS連鎖や米中貿易戦争、イラン戦争、ブレグジットなどと同じレベルで、株も為替も大暴落して世界経済を破滅させる超巨大爆弾です 日本に経済危機と金融危機が同時に起こり、日経平均などの超絶な大暴落につながっていく
「リーマンショックの100倍以上の金融危機が起こる」ということは、逆に言えば、「リーマンショックの100倍以上、稼ぐチャンスがある」ということ!?
空売り祭りやプットオプション祭りで、あなたの人生の中で、最も一番最大に稼げるチャンス 人生の中で1度しか訪れないくらいの大チャンスでもあります!
農林中金は最高格付けのAAAのCLOをメインに持っているが、それは本当に安全なのか?
欧米の投資家がレバレッジドローンを売りまくっている時でも、日本の金融機関は最後まで持ち続ける(ガチホ)表の理由と裏の理由とは? 実際の実例をご紹介
なぜ、金融危機が起こったときに、最後にババ抜きのババをいつも日本が引かされるのか?
利下げとリセッション(景気後退)と株価下落が起こればトリプルパンチになり、いよいよ信用市場の崩壊が始まる!?
なぜ、リーマンショックであれほどのダメージを受けたのに、世界の政府や中央銀行などはそれを反省しそこから学び、今回の大問題に何も事前に対策を打たないのか? バブルを未然に防止するBISビューとFEDビューとは?
今年の秋以降は、アメリカで言えばトランプ大統領の大統領選挙も終わり、日本で言えば東京オリンピックも終わり、消費税の増税のための対策も有効期限が切れる時期なので超ヤバい!?
「financial crisis」の検索が、2015年に中国株が暴落したチャイナショック以来の高い水準に達している
結論としては「最悪の最悪のバッドエンド」が待っている しかも日本に直撃する!? 「次の金融危機」で最も被害を受ける国が、実は日本であるという「真実」を知っておこう
しかし、サブプライムローンからのリーマンショックのときも、ほんの1部の投資家はその危機を事前に察知して自分の資産を守り抜きました
そんな11年前の極秘情報のようなモノを、神王TVを見て頂いたあなたは知っているのです! ぜひ、あなたも、プロの投資家・トレーダーとして、今からでも遅くありませんので対策を始めて行きましょう!!
超・巨大爆弾が爆発して、超大暴落が起こりそうなとき=空売りやプットオプションを準備すべき時や、
その次の、十分に暴落し尽くして、ここから上げに転じるであろう大バーゲンセールになったときも、
神王リョウ・公式メルマガで、「ズバリ、今が仕込み時期 全力で空売りしましょう! 全力で買いましょう!」とメッセージを送りますので、ぜひ今すぐ登録しておいてください!
★ 神王リョウの株とFXの生徒 新期メンバーの募集
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TVや雑誌で、150回以上取り上げられた「株とFXと仮想通貨で稼げる学校」です
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神王メルマガ(公式)
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ほぼ毎日1~2本くらいのペースで、どんどんアップしていますので、
見逃さないためにも、ぜひ、「チャンネル登録」をよろしくお願いします!(^^)/
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神王リョウが30億円以上稼いできた、あらゆるノウハウをお伝えしていく番組です!!
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#日経平均
#三井住友銀行
#ゆうちょ銀行