關於 risk analysis example ，我們在網路上蒐集到這些相關的討論、資訊與評價

因為有不少朋友建議我，將日前臉書上“武漢肺炎發生率與致死率的國際比較”一文翻譯成英文，所以，就以英文版再次和大家分享，也謝謝大家的批評指教。

International Comparison of Incidence and Mortality Rates of COVID-19

In the statistics of the COVID-19 collected and published by the World Health Organization (WHO), only the numbers of confirmed cases and deaths of COVID-19 of affected countries are available, without taking the population of each country into consideration. It will result in a biased assessment of the COVID-19 risk for each country.
Better data for international comparison is incidence rates, which refer to the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases (numerator) divided by the number of the population (denominator) of a given country. As shown in Table 1. the incidence rate per 100,000 population was highest in Italy, Korean, Iran, and China (>5.0 per 100,000) and much lower in Japan, US and Taiwan (<0.5 per 100,000).



The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in each country is not only related to its population but also dependent on the coverage rate of the COVID-19 virus test. The confirmed case number and incidence rate are relatively low for those countries where only the severe cases were tested for COVID-19 virus; and they are much higher for countries where severe, moderate and mild cases were tested for the virus.

Once a country changes its policy of virus testing, for example of testing only those who are seriously ill, the number of the confirmed cases and incidence rate will drop sharply in a short period of time, but its case fatality rate will rise accordingly.

The case fatality rate is the proportion (percentage) of confirmed COVID-19 cases who died from the disease. Its numerator is the number of confirmed cases who died from the disease, and its denominator is the total number of confirmed cases. It is for sure that the case fatality rate will be higher if the analysis is limited to severe cases, and it will drop dramatically if the analysis also includes moderate and mild cases.

As shown in Table 2, the case fatality rates are the same for severe (5%), moderate (0.5%) and mild (0.1%) COVID-19 confirmed cases in countries A, B, and C are the same, but
the overall case fatality rates per 1,000 confirmed cases are significantly different among the country A, where only test the severe cases (41 per 1,000), country B where both severe and moderate cases are tested (14 per 1,000), and country C where test all severe, moderate and mild cases (8 per 1,000).



Among the countries with more than 1,000 confirmed cases in Table 1, the overall case-fatality rates in Italy, China and Iran were all exceeded 3.5%. Obviously, the severe cases account for a relatively large proportion of confirmed cases. The overall case-fatality rate for South Korea and Germany was only 0.8% and 0.1%, respectively, where the moderate and mild cases account for a relatively large proportion.

When we see a rapid decline in the number of confirmed cases with a soared case fatality rate, we must first pay attention to the change in the country's virus testing strategy. The Director-General of WHO recently stated that all countries should be cautious for the case fatality rate of COVID-19 is rising! The conclusion that the Director-General was biasedly made without taking the change in the virus testing strategy into consideration. He made the matter worse by causing unnecessary panic!

In addition to the virus-detection strategy, some other factors such as age, chronic disease status, and quality of medical care also affect the case fatality rate. For examples, the fatality rate will be low if the patients in the hospital for isolation treatment are mostly young people, without chronic disease, and receiving good cares. If most patients are old, with chronic disease, and receiving inadequate cares due to limited hospital resources and manpower, the case fatality rate will become high.

因為有不少朋友建議我，將日前臉書上“武漢肺炎發生率與致死率的國際比較”一文翻譯成英文，所以，就以英文版再次和大家分享，也謝謝大家的批評指教。

International Comparison of Incidence and Mortality Rates of COVID-19

In the statistics of the COVID-19 collected and published by the World Health Organization (WHO), only the numbers of confirmed cases and deaths of COVID-19 of affected countries are available, without taking the population of each country into consideration. It will result in a biased assessment of the COVID-19 risk for each country.
Better data for international comparison is incidence rates, which refer to the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases (numerator) divided by the number of the population (denominator) of a given country. As shown in Table 1. the incidence rate per 100,000 population was highest in Italy, Korean, Iran, and China (>5.0 per 100,000) and much lower in Japan, US and Taiwan (<0.5 per 100,000).



The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in each country is not only related to its population but also dependent on the coverage rate of the COVID-19 virus test. The confirmed case number and incidence rate are relatively low for those countries where only the severe cases were tested for COVID-19 virus; and they are much higher for countries where severe, moderate and mild cases were tested for the virus.

Once a country changes its policy of virus testing, for example of testing only those who are seriously ill, the number of the confirmed cases and incidence rate will drop sharply in a short period of time, but its case fatality rate will rise accordingly.

The case fatality rate is the proportion (percentage) of confirmed COVID-19 cases who died from the disease. Its numerator is the number of confirmed cases who died from the disease, and its denominator is the total number of confirmed cases. It is for sure that the case fatality rate will be higher if the analysis is limited to severe cases, and it will drop dramatically if the analysis also includes moderate and mild cases.

As shown in Table 2, the case fatality rates are the same for severe (5%), moderate (0.5%) and mild (0.1%) COVID-19 confirmed cases in countries A, B, and C are the same, but
the overall case fatality rates per 1,000 confirmed cases are significantly different among the country A, where only test the severe cases (41 per 1,000), country B where both severe and moderate cases are tested (14 per 1,000), and country C where test all severe, moderate and mild cases (8 per 1,000).



Among the countries with more than 1,000 confirmed cases in Table 1, the overall case-fatality rates in Italy, China and Iran were all exceeded 3.5%. Obviously, the severe cases account for a relatively large proportion of confirmed cases. The overall case-fatality rate for South Korea and Germany was only 0.8% and 0.1%, respectively, where the moderate and mild cases account for a relatively large proportion.

When we see a rapid decline in the number of confirmed cases with a soared case fatality rate, we must first pay attention to the change in the country's virus testing strategy. The Director-General of WHO recently stated that all countries should be cautious for the case fatality rate of COVID-19 is rising! The conclusion that the Director-General was biasedly made without taking the change in the virus testing strategy into consideration. He made the matter worse by causing unnecessary panic!

In addition to the virus-detection strategy, some other factors such as age, chronic disease status, and quality of medical care also affect the case fatality rate. For examples, the fatality rate will be low if the patients in the hospital for isolation treatment are mostly young people, without chronic disease, and receiving good cares. If most patients are old, with chronic disease, and receiving inadequate cares due to limited hospital resources and manpower, the case fatality rate will become high.

一同響應陳建仁副總統與中研院院士前輩們為中華民國、為台灣、為學術良知發聲：

陳副臉書全文連結：https://tinyurl.com/y5vmj8y3

林煜軒醫師整理的好讀易懂「圖文懶人包」 ：https://tinyurl.com/y3u5x5lp

這個議題，值得臺灣醫療界、科學界的你我，一起來關心！

━━━━

要求《The Lancet》立即更正錯誤，共同捍衛台灣主權與學術尊嚴

世界頂尖學術期刊《The Lancet》（刺胳針）於6月25日刊登一篇中國的醫學研究，由於該研究將台灣納為中國的一省，嚴重矮化台灣的國際地位，除引發數千網友在其臉書上留言抗議並要求更正外，衛福部也將正式行文給《The Lancet》抗議，說明「台灣是台灣、中國是中國」。

雖然《The Lancet》回應表示，這是根據聯合國（UN）和世界衛生組織（WHO）的方針，才將台灣列為中國一省，和其它的國際衛生分析沒有不同。但必須嚴正指出的是，除了政治上的錯誤之外，正因為台灣和中國為各自獨立的兩個不同國家，有各自獨立不同的行政、健保體系，在健保相關資料的完整性與正確性上，台灣與中國更是有許多差異，因此，這篇研究將不同方法所蒐集的健康資料放在同一個層級的模型來作研究，不但產生許多方法學上與研究結果的偏差，更已犯了學術研究的大忌，我們認為頂尖的《The Lancet》期刊不應該犯這樣的錯誤才對。

因此，我和中央研究院陳定信院士、廖運範院士、楊泮池院士等人，特別聯名致函《The Lancet》編輯部，要求該期刊立即更正錯誤，因為，這不只關係到台灣的主權尊嚴，更關係著國際學術研究的專業與倫理。

我也要在此呼籲所有關心這個事件的國人同胞，踴躍到 《The Lancet》的臉書粉絲專業表答您的意見，
https://www.facebook.com/374651963469/posts/10157661625328470/?substory_index=0

以下是致函《The Lancet》編輯部全文：

To the Editor:

We read the recent article by Zhou et al. comparing mortality, morbidity and risk factors in China and its provinces, 1990-2017. The authors used data from Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to analyse health patterns in 34 province-level administrative units in China. This is a misleading and biased report due to the inclusion of Taiwan in the analyses.

The authors made an obvious flaw by including Taiwan in the study. The national health system, government system and administrative system are independent in Taiwan. The completeness and accuracy of national databases of health insurance, cancer registry, death certification, cancer screening and health surveillance in Taiwan is totally different from those of China. The health outcomes measured by different methods should not be included in the same hierarchical models. Taiwan has its own cancer and death registration system, and the information were not collected by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention as described wrongly in the article. The data source from the Global Health Data Exchange (http://ghdx.healthdata.org/countries) that the authors used in this paper also clearly showed Taiwan and China are two distinguished countries under the category of Eastern Asia.

Taiwan has an independent National Health Insurance system which covers more than 95% of 23 million people since 1995. Taiwan has also implemented a series of public health programs to reduce mortality and morbidity which are not implemented in China. For example, Taiwan is the first country in the world to implement universal newborn hepatitis B vaccination program since 1984 whereas China started in 1992. We reimbursed antiviral treatment for chronic viral hepatitis since 2003 and decreased liver disease burdens continuously. Taiwan started to reimburse direct antiviral agents for chronic hepatitis C patients with advance fibrosis since 2017 and for all chronic hepatitis C patients since 2019, and has committed to eliminating hepatitis C infection in 2025, 5 years earlier than the 2030 deadline set by WHO.

The inclusion of Taiwan in the analysis leads definitely to a significant bias of the findings of Zhou et al. In their similar publication in 2016 (Lancet 387:251-272), Taiwan was not included in the analyses. We would like to urge the authors to re-run the analyses and remove Taiwan from their analyses in order to yield unbiased estimates of mortality, morbidity and risk factors in China. Lancet, as an esteemed medical journal, has the reputation to publish accurate and precise research findings. Such a major categorization mistake in the methods section by Zhou et al. should be rectified.

Maggie Dai-Hua TSAI RIEDIKER
Mei-Hsuan LEE
Ding-Sing CHEN
Yun-Fan LIAW
Pan-Chyr YANG
Yi-Hao HUANG
Chien-Jen CHEN

I want to share with you a trade that I got WRONG big-time from the start. SUBSCRIBE: https://bit.ly/2MsGjRR

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This is a trade on Pound Aussie, the daily time frame, and I just want to share with you my thought process to why I took this trade. So you can see that the price pretty much came into this area of resistance over here. Over here price came into this level and it got rejected, right? Cause you saw you saw this bearish reversal pattern at a nice round number of one point eight. And this obvious market structure resistance. So when this occurred, I told myself that I wanna get short because I'm against this obvious market structure. So I'm going down to a lower time frame, the four hour time frame, to look for an entry trigger.

One ATR is somewhere about here and I went short. And as you can see at this point in time - boom. I just got stopped out. The market just rallied against me and I took the loss on this trade. Now at this point, I wanna say that I don't regret making this trade. Yes I am wrong on this trade. The market has proved me wrong big time. But I have my stops in place to kinda contain the losses. But what happens is that, what if you hesitate to take the loss? What if you are thinking, lets say for example at this point in time, the price is now back at resistance.

You can see that trading is all about balancing your risk to reward. You never know how much the market will move in your favor. You never know how much the market will move against you. All you can do is to have a set of rule to play good defense and to take what the market offers you. So the three trades I shared with you, although the first two are losing trades, it hit my stop loss, I'm just protecting myself.

So I kinda leave it to you, depending on your trading goals, how you want to manage this trade. Right this is platinum. Another trade that I want to share with you is the Pound against the Swiss Franc. This one over here you can see that this market is in a down trend. In fact, there is this minor structure over here that I didn't draw it, but you can see it over here. That's that once, here, okay, and then here second time, and then third time over here. But what's interesting is that if you look at the four hour timeframe, there is a chart pattern that is showing you signs of weakness in the market.

This is a chart pattern, is what we call the descending triangle. Notice that there is lower highs coming into this area of support. This tells you that the buyers try to push price higher, but keep getting smashed down lower by the sellers at lower and lower prices. So now the buyers are kinda constrained, they are pushed into a corner. And if you ask me, there's a good chance, there's a good chance that this market could break down lower. So what I'm looking for is for a break and close below this area of support. If it does, again I'll go short, have my stops one ATR above this high, somewhere here, and try to ride the downward swing. And see, and to take what the market offers. If it's not going to offer anything I just bail out and say "Sayonara. Thank you and I'm out. See ya."

So that's what I'm doing on this Pound Swiss Franc trade. That's the setup that I'm looking at, okay? So these are the couple of trading opportunities that I feel that is worth watching for this coming week. And hopefully the first three trades that I share with you are good lessons to kinda ground you into what you should expect from trading. So with that said I have come to the end of this week's market analysis. If you have enjoyed it please hit the subscribe button below. Just click on it, duh duh duh click. Hit the like button. If you have any feedback, comments, questions, leave it in the comment section below and I'll get back to you. Alright so that's it. I wish you good luck and good trading until next time.

Learn my best trading tips to massively improve your trading results.

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0:25 Forex Trading Tip #1
Enter your trades near market structure. So let me share with you how not to do it, right? So firstly, right, often, traders will look at a chart, right. So, let's say, for example, the red one here is your stop loss. The green one is your entry point. And the blue one is your, so-called take profit level. So, traders, they will see this chart, and they say, oh, man, the price is, you know, coming down, lower and lower. Let me, you know, hop on board before you know, I miss the move.

2:51 Forex Trading Tip #2
The second tip is this, right, is that you want to trade breakouts with buildup. So what is buildup, right? Let me explain. For those of you who have been following me a while now, you're already a pro at this. So a buildup means, right, a tight consolidation where the range of the candles gets smaller and smaller. So you can see that over here, this blue box, this is what we call a buildup over here.

4:10 Forex Trading Tip #3
This is a sign of strength that a market is likely to breakout higher. Another variation of this, right, is what we call higher lows into resistance. This is a sign of strength, as well. Notice, you see the higher lows, higher lows, higher lows, higher lows, into resistance. The concept is somewhat similar to the buildup, but this time 'round, it's telling you that buyers are willing to buy at this higher price instead. It's why you see higher lows into resistance. Right, so this is also another sign of strength, right.

4:28 Forex Trading Tip #4
The fourth tip that I want to share with you is what I call the first pullback. So often, right, the price, it can break out. And if it breaks out, right, you might have missed the move, right, if you didn't catch the breakout. But don't worry, because more often than not, right, the price will give you a chance to re-enter, to catch the trend.

5:23 Forex Trading Tip #5
The fifth thing that I want to share with you is to set your stop loss, right, away from market structure, because often, what traders do is that let's say, the market is in a range, okay? They go long, right, and price hits up higher, they go long over here. Where do they put their stop loss? They put their stop loss just below this level of support. And what happens? Well, the market could just as well come down lower, trigger your stop loss, and then continue higher. So this is why, right, you don't want to put your stop loss just below support, or just above resistance.

7:22 Forex Trading Tip #6
The sixth tip that I want to share with you is entry technique, right, to profit from traders who long breakout, and then they got trapped. Here's how it works. So this is what I call the false break set-up. So you can see that over here, area of resistance, resistance, market broke out of resistance on this candle. You can imagine, right, that actually at one point in time, this candle was looking bullish, something like this, okay?

9:16 Forex Trading Tip #7
And the last tip that I want to share with you is this, right. Use limit order for a better risk-to-reward on our trades. So let me share with you an example. So you can see over here, alright, this is a chart of Euro Yen for our timeframe. How do I know that, because it's over here. Okay, so, this is a very typical set-up that traders will trade prices at an area of support, right? Coming to an area of support, right. Now this step once, twice, you can mark up your support level. It's going to be quite obvious. And then, this bullish reversal candle is so bullish, right? You suddenly just hit a massive reversal, and close near this highs over here.

Check out my website, download these two books, right, click this blue button, and I'll send it to your email address for free, right? And that's it, right. If you've enjoyed this video, right, leave thumbs-up button, yeah, right? Subscribe to my channel. And if you have any questions for me, let me know below, and I'll do my best to help.

The days are ticking by and it's getting close to just a month left to the big day 6th May - Battle of the Freaks 2! Side note Thank you Kit, for getting a shoutout for me by one of my idols Ms Bikini Olympia, @courtneykiing!!!

My back is a lot better, not playing up but not taking any risk too in doing lower body workout. Was told by my physio i can do some of my usual stuff but at half my normal weight (which is suuppppperr boring), barely broke a sweat, hence focused a lot on making sure my tempo and mind muscle connection were there. Best time to focus on the little details when injured.

Upper body i maintained the program but was told to do cardio everyday. i personally asked for it to so i don't waste time. After 4 days of consistent steady state cardio, i could see some significant changes, weight dropped, so did the body fat percentage base on the InBody analysis at Koa.

Got in more posing practice in this week and learnt how to do the quarter turns. Posing is a frigging workout on it's own, learning how to think about contracting the right muscles, especially making sure my trap goes down and getting my delts to pop. But glad overall i'm seeing good changes and my coach says so too.

I finally managed to do some legs on Friday! Instead of squats swapped it to split squats with hamstring curls, less pressure on my lower back.

Nutrition hasn't changed, sticking to the 50g of carbs and below. At the end of the video, i give an idea of what 50g of carbs looks like. For example in one day i would eat

4 rice cakes, 50g of blueberries, 50g of raspberries, 30 almonds and 1 tablespoon of chia seed. All that is equivalent to eating one bowl of cooked white rice or even 2 medium size bananas

Low carbs isn't so bad in my opinion. i've gotten used to it, and my body feels a lot better on this diet plan. However i need to be careful with my cheats. Learnt that I can't take a LOAD of dairy (had 2 scoops of gelato - BAD IDEA!), cause it bloats the heck out of me. This was after 2 ribs, 1 chicken thigh, french fries, rice and roti boy.. the gelato and the cheese bake tart undid me...sigh. Well at least i know from here.

Very productive week and what I need most of now is REST! The comp is coming soon!!

Congrats to my buddy Kam on winning in his division for powerlifting and it as usually cheatmeals are better with company. Nana we will begin our #cheatmealbucketlist! :P

Thanks again everyone for watching my vlogs, I'm learning everyday and do tell me what else you want me to share in my videos! Appreciate every comment and view :)

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