Is a U.S.-China hot war imminent?|Lee Yee
In July, Pompeo claimed the American policy towards China is harsher than the one towards the Soviet Union in the Cold War era. The approach has been shifted from “listening to its words and watching its deeds” to “ignoring its words and only watching its deeds”. Recent developments show that the U.S. is striding closer and closer to a complete de-linkage with China. The recall of the ambassador from China was just a prelude. What followed was the U.S. official interpretation that “one China policy” is not equivalent to “one China principle”, plus the emphasis that “the U.S. holds no specific standpoint towards the sovereignty of Taiwan”. Furthermore, during the visit of Krach, U.S. Under Secretary of State, Tsai Ing-wen stated that “Taiwan has the determination to take the critical step”. Adding fuel to this, Hsiao Bi Khim, Taiwan’s delegate at the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the U.S., introduced herself as the “Taiwan Ambassador to the U.S.” on Twitter. In view of all these, is the U.S. going to establish diplomatic relation with Taiwan? Will it turn out to be the “October surprise” before the U.S. presidential election? In response, China dispatched fighter jets to violate the airspace of Taiwan, and as “Global Times” put it, “this was not a gesture of warning, but an actual combat exercise of attacking Taiwan”. In return, Taiwan authority urged China “not to underestimate its armed forces' resolve in safeguarding Taiwan”. As tension keeps building up across the Strait, will the U.S. intervene and finally trigger a U.S.-China hot war?
For the last few months, while analyzing the situation, quite a few observers have drawn upon the “Thucydides trap” originated from an ancient Greek historian. According to this theory, when an emerging power threatens to displace an existing great power as an international hegemony, there will be an unavoidable tendency towards war.
To be frank, these observers may have well overestimated the strength of China. Thanks to its huge population, China has become the second largest economic entity in the world. But we are now living in an era that national strength is rather defined by technological advancement. In reality, China is militarily inferior to Russia and technologically lagging far behind major western countries. To put it simply, China is yet to be capable of challenging the American dominance.
Back in the 1980s, in the heyday of its economic development, Japan has significantly outperformed the U.S. in the capital market, and some American scholars have come to the “Japan No.1” conclusion. Despite this, there was never a sign of military confrontation between U.S. and Japan. A decade later, the formation of the European Union posed new challenge to the American supremacy. But again, the two did not come anywhere close to a war. So why has the emergence of China, which in fact lacks the capabilities to overwhelm the U.S., aroused much anticipation of war?
Rudolph Rummel, an American professor of political studies, have made a thorough analysis on the correlation between wars and democracy in human history. After humans surviving a thousand years of darkness, it was not until the independence of the U.S. in 1776 that unveiled a democratic institution with public elections, separation of powers, multi-party system as well as freedom of speech, press, religion and assembly. After more than a hundred years, in 1900 there were only 13 democratic countries in the world. And after another decade, in 2015 the rose to 130, and dictatorial states without meaningful elections have become the minority.
According to Rummel’s statistics, there were 371 wars between 1816 and 2005. Among them, 205 were fought between two dictatorial countries and 166 between democratic and dictatorial ones. Interestingly, there had not been a single war between democratic countries. The conclusion is all too obvious: if there were only democratic states on earth, wars would not happen.
And here lies the fundamental reason why the “Thucydides Trap” has been more valid in the old days when dictatorial systems prevailed, but has failed to apply in contemporary cases between two democratic countries. And it also explains why the competitions between the U.S. and Japan or the EU have not led to any war, while the challenge from China will probably end up differently.
In a democratic system, to wage a war requires a consensus among the government, legislature, media and public opinion. It is rather a matter of the people’s collective will than the ruler’s subjective decision. Whereas within a dictatorial structure, no approval from the legislature is needed, media and public opinion are never respected and judicial challenge simply does not exist. A dictator or oligarch can just go to war at will.
From a dictator’s point of view, whether to enter a war or not is not subject to external circumstance, but the domestic status of his ruling. When a dictator’s position gets shaken by severe economic downturn and widespread public discontent, he will try to divert domestic dissatisfaction by means of foreign maneuvers. The dictator tends to single out those “non-conforming groups”, as so identified by the “little pink” Chinese patriots, and tries bullying them, as what the CCP is doing in India, Hong Kong and Inner Mongolia. The objective is to distract attention with extreme nationalism. More often than not, stirring up external instability has become a tactic to secure domestic stability of the dictator’s rule.
Perhaps a shrewd dictator will weigh up the strength of his counterpart before taking action. Nevertheless, the intrinsically defective system may hinder the dictator from understanding the reality and accessing different views. And personal intellectual and intelligent inadequacies may also breed unrealistic self-inflating belief. The resulted stupidity can make a tragedy more imminent than everyone may expect.
同時也有1部Youtube影片,追蹤數超過6萬的網紅Herman Yeung,也在其Youtube影片中提到,Note download 筆記下載 : https://hermanutube.blogspot.hk/2016/01/youtube-pdf.html -----------------------------------------------------------------------...
capital structure theory 在 林建甫 Facebook 的最讚貼文
20161006 早上參加台經院國際處舉辦的The 31st Pacific Economic Community Seminar “Quest for Economic Growth Engines”研討會。我被安排開幕做一個致詞,及第一場的主持。結束就已經近12點。致詞稿如下,請批評指教。(說實在有點太長,會不會?)
Distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen,
Welcome to the 31st Pacific Economic Community Seminar. The theme of this year’s seminar is “Quest for Economic Growth Engines”, which is also an international project of PECC. We initiated this project to the PECC Standing Committee in Yangzhou, China last week.
The reason for proposing such a project is because we have noticed that the IMF has constantly revised downward its outlook for global economic growth since the fourth quarter of 2014. In addition, economists have been stressing a “new normal” or a “new mediocre.” Strong growth or solid recovery seems very unlikely for the time being.
In addition, geopolitical factors are furthering uncertainties amid deteriorating economic conditions; large economies are not showing leadership to pull the world economy along, rather they are desperately trying to cope with their own difficulties. In the face of heavy fiscal constraints and debt pressure, extreme monetary operations, through quantitative easing, have become one of the few workable options. Overcapacity due to overinvestment at bad times has been an issue causing inexhaustible structure reforms, whereas continuous reforms have also slowed growth momentum and limited growth potential. When big players are dealing with either tepid growth or periodical headwinds, soggy demand holds back others that are closely associated with global or regional supply chains.
As every economy is specialized in specific ways, almost none are immune to shrinking world demand. Therefore, to pick one’s growth potential is no longer simply to seek the betterment of oneself, but the well-being of all. Consumption, investment and trade are main engines that used to drive economic growth yet have seemingly lost steam in recent times. Decision makers are responsible for building healthy environments that are able to encourage consumption, investment and trade.
Private or household consumption is the most important component of GDP. Despite consumption preferences and decisions being dissimilar among the economies, it is a rule of thumb that demand for consumption goods is strong in good times, whereas consumers tend to retreat in bad times. Since the marginal propensity to consume theory indicates that an increase in consumer spending occurs with an increase in disposable income, avoiding income traps is essential to support consumption. Income traps have been present in different forms: emerging economies are suffering from middle-income traps, while advanced economies are stressing high-income traps.
In addition, to escape from income traps, building sound social safety nets is also a necessary task to promote private consumption. Saving is critical, especially for developing economies when lacking sufficient social safety nets. However, high saving rates restricts other economic activities, such as consumption. With well functioning safety nets, people will be more willing to spend.
As for investment, it is the key for growth. Besides the fact that investment is a crucial component of domestic demand, it also paves the way for supplying external demand. Not only emerging, but also advanced economies have strived to attract foreign investments. For emerging economies, foreign investment comes with technology and the chance to upgrade economic capacity. For advanced economies, foreign investments bring in capital and job opportunities. Complicated and excessive regulations, poor infrastructure and unstable political systems are some of many reasons that could impede potential foreign investments. Hence, capacity building to create healthy environments through information and knowledge sharing among economic partners to eliminate or mitigate those unattractive factors is much needed.
Last but not least, trade is an engine for GDP growth; otherwise negotiations for most free-trade agreements would not be so difficult to conclude. The conclusion of the TPP has been in the spotlight, as regional supply chains will be reshuffled when the treaty comes about. The TPP also sets a high quality benchmark for others, including the RCEP and the TTIP. However, we are certainly not sure if TPP can be ratified at this moment with respect to so many uncertainties.
Even so, free trade is in theory good for all participants. If an agreement covers the region, then it would be beneficial for the entire region. When a free-trade deal is implemented, tariff and non-tariff barriers are eliminated. As a result, suppliers’ and consumers’ surpluses are maximized; overall welfare increases and resources are optimally allocated. However, free trade poses serious threats for outsiders. For example: rules of origin require a high percentage of intermediate components of a final product to enjoy duty-free treatment. Those requirements reduce outsiders’ chances to compete with members in that trading bloc. As more members will certainly create more benefits, making sure every economy is included would be to seek the well-being of all.
To address the “new mediocre” and revive or explore growth engines, CTPECC is undertaking an international project in line with this seminar. We are honored to have many opinion leaders here to share their views with us today.
Ladies and gentlemen,
With these words, I wish our seminar all success and I wish you all an enjoyable day in Taipei. Thank you.
capital structure theory 在 Herman Yeung Youtube 的最讚貼文
Note download 筆記下載 : https://hermanutube.blogspot.hk/2016/01/youtube-pdf.html
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Economics 所有 videos 的 Playlist 可看: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzDe9mOi1K8o8H4_PAK1oLM_vhUpd0Xk9
分類的 Playlist 可看:
A. Basic Economics Concepts 基本經濟概念 … https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzDe9mOi1K8qqV5XGkWjbTy23XwkqNE0I
B. Firms & Production 廠商與生產 … https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzDe9mOi1K8qrlkuI1wdJUa3UZs0txvjN
C. Market & Price 市場與價格 … https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzDe9mOi1K8oOWHDRwYI8hvuUhNp9qcQk
D. Competition & Market structure 競爭與市場結構 … https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzDe9mOi1K8q982crii7XomNNjIx-f8rd
E. Efficiency, Equity & the role of government 效率、公平和政府的角色 … https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzDe9mOi1K8onmTnt7Dghh4pVud9e3PPU
F. Measurement of Economic Performance 經濟表現的量度 … https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzDe9mOi1K8qIHKIc6pUHUIfTXc3Cmjv3
G. National Income Determination & Price Level 國民收入決定及價格水平 … https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzDe9mOi1K8pkBABdTOtjs_8aPoTdUf61
H. Money & Banking 貨幣與銀行 … https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzDe9mOi1K8oFN6Fe_5aEk0mnJpfBe0S1
I. Macroeconomic Problems & Policies 宏觀經濟問題和政策 … https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzDe9mOi1K8onndGtdUUvNQpcmax7a1VX
J. International trade & finance 國際貿易和金融 … https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzDe9mOi1K8poqrVsbrWDq5V2-ZsNAwBi
E1. Elective I : Monopoly Pricing, Anti-competitive Behaviours and Competition Policy 壟斷定價、反競爭行為及競爭政策 … https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzDe9mOi1K8r5Fz1mXcELz7CQ79Omr6nb
E2. Elective II: Extension of Trade Theory, Economic Growth and Development 貿易理論之延伸、經濟增長及發展 … https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzDe9mOi1K8pesBkw164n1FW0G_UwoiT0
Notes Only Version : https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzDe9mOi1K8pTsr5jwcpqD4fcPTQZetR8
Definition 背誦︰
中英對照︰ https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzDe9mOi1K8ohGrOAWAsVQK3PFBqrXf2V
純英版︰ https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzDe9mOi1K8pFSFPWu1LJvURZujQzVJvD
純中版︰ https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzDe9mOi1K8odYV54ZMTkj2m7BWvMU9pB
電子書 (中英對照版 - 230頁) (HK$19.90)︰
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電子書 (純英文版 - 159頁) (HK$19.90)︰
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電子書 (純中文版 - 159頁) (HK$19.90)︰
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HKDSE Econ Past Paper Solution : https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzDe9mOi1K8rq7kTVAuDerVqrfT6WstsV
HKCEE Econ Past Paper Solution : https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzDe9mOi1K8oVtFNEdJIya9ANc1X5nhTw
HKALE Econ Past Paper Solution : https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzDe9mOi1K8pXFnsqOlPtL3DtsDsb7w4l
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