【恩怨情仇】英國身上難以抹走的印記
雖然脫歐已塵埃落定,但是英國可能會發現,無論是歷史淵源,還是地理位置,它身上的歐洲印記不會就這樣被輕易抹去。事實上,儘管英國政府竭力將英國重新包裝成一個致力與全球各國發展自由貿易關係的先鋒,但上述難以抹煞的事實,以及長期被英歐關係發展所困擾的政治文化,都注定了在未來的幾年,英國和歐洲之間的命運將繼續綁在一起。
設在柏林的智庫歐洲外交關係委員會(European Council on Foreign Relations)近期的一項研究發現,英國與歐洲之間的種種恩怨情仇不可能就這樣輕易地一筆勾銷。來自英國政府、智庫、學界以及私營領域的政策專家同樣認為,未來英國在全球政治生活中扮演的角色將繼續與歐盟緊密聯繫在一起,而統領「英聯邦國家復興」被認為是最不切合實際的結果,只有不到2%的受訪者認同這一觀點。
儘管12月24日簽署的英歐貿易協議對於未來雙邊關係進行了詳細闡述,但上述研究發現,雙方未來仍有著廣闊的合作空間,特別是在氣候變化、移民以及外交政策領域,但前提是英方願意和歐洲展開合作。
但是雙方也需要盡早採取行動,以不至於因為脫歐而隔閡太久。歐洲外交關係委員會進行的另外一項研究發現,在歐盟27個成員國中,只有愛爾蘭將對英關係放在首位。總括而言,英國對於歐盟的重要性排在中國、俄羅斯和美國之後,其重要性甚至不及西巴爾幹半島。歐洲外交關係委員會柏林辦事處主任、研究項目負責人普格利林(Jana Puglierin)表示:「漫長的脫歐談判讓雙方都有些厭煩,我認為這對雙方重新開始接觸會有一定影響,那些傳統上與英國保持密切關係的國家如今都已經各奔前程。」
#英國脫歐 #歐盟 #歐洲外交關係委員會 #愛爾蘭 #自由貿易
(本文節選自《彭博商業週刊∕中文版》第212期,如欲查閱全文,歡迎訂閱)
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今天早上得知我的好友和知名學者容安瀾(右一)過世的消息,我非常地難過。Alan是位傑出的外交官,他在1960年代展開外交生涯,主要以東亞為主。他曾任國務院負責政策規劃的首席副主任、掌管公共事務的首席副助理國務卿、以及國務院副發言人。他也曾於國安會服務。近年來,他在華府智庫史汀生中心擔任東亞項目的主任,尤其側重台灣的外交關係。我很高興他2016年5月能以美國祝賀團成員的身分來到台北,參加蔡總統的就職典禮,這可以說讓他在台的經歷更完整圓滿,因為他曾以美國海軍軍官的身分在高雄兩年,也曾在台中學中文。從我進國務院開始,他就一直是我的導師。當我得知自己將成為AIT處長時,我首先請益的人就是他,因為我知道他的聰明才智、建議忠告和風趣幽默總是讓我受益良多。天底下恐怕再也找不到像他這麼棒的人了。珍重再見,Alan!台灣會思念你的,我也是! --- 梅健華 #FromAITDirector
This morning I was saddened by the news that my dear friend Alan Romberg (first from the right) had died. Alan was an extraordinary Foreign Service Officer whose career focus was East Asia, beginning in the 1960s. He was the Principal Deputy Director of the State Department's Policy Planning staff, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Public Affairs and Deputy Spokesman of the department. He also served in the National Security Council. In recent years, Alan was co-director of the East Asia program at the Stimson Center with a special focus on Taiwan’s foreign relations. I was so pleased when he came to Taipei in May 2016 as part of the U.S. delegation to President Tsai’s inauguration. In a way, he had come full circle. He was a U.S. naval officer for two years in Kaohsiung and studied Mandarin in Taichung. Since the early days of my career, Alan had been a mentor of mine. He was one of the first people I reached out to when I learned I was coming out to be Director of AIT because I always knew I could depend on him for keen intellect, sound advice, and good humor. A more decent man, you will never meet. Farewell, Alan. Taiwan will miss you and so will I…km
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Financial Times:
//中國的統戰工作遠遠不止於影響澳、紐政府。 澳洲國立大學國家安全學院院長Rory Medcalf說:“中國共產黨正試圖壓制世界各國僑民的異見。” “它使用一套方法來實現其目標:政治捐款,控制中文媒體,動員社區和學生群體去從事中共代理甚至參與領事官員的強制性活動“。//
金融時報日前報導, 西方各國開始更為警惕"外國勢力中國"。內文提到,中共在各國的統戰活動,比俄羅斯更具長遠目光,也更傾向同化他國社會;中國所用的統戰策略,香港與台灣大概不會感到陌生。
在中國日漸被視為具威脅力的sharp power之際,值得重溫新加坡學者朋友早前的文章——這篇文章,談在新加坡加強以國家為本位的中國國情教育之必要, 以應對愈來愈複雜且緊張的新中關係, 也為防止新加坡在中國壓力之下"芬蘭化"。
Commentary: The growing importance of China studies with Singapore characteristics
https://www.facebook.com/…/a.10294936538…/1451773864921387/…
#中國作為外國勢力
#星港比較
West grows wary of China’s influence game
“Chinese operations are much more subtle, less targeted and more about long-term influence-building than Russian operations,” says Christopher Johnson, the former head of the China desk at the Central Intelligence Agency and now a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
“But as we start to realise that China intends to socialise us rather than become more like us, the debate in the west has taken on a harder edge and people are asking whether 40 years of engagement might have been a sham.”
"Politicians from both sides of the aisle have been reticent to question how Jian Yang managed to have such a successful political career while keeping his military intelligence background secret. In contrast to Australia, New Zealand’s politicians and business elite appear much less willing to openly criticise any of Beijing’s actions out of fear of offending a big trading partner.
But China’s United Front work goes far beyond influencing antipodean governments. “The Chinese Communist party is seeking to suppress dissent among its diaspora in countries around the world,” says Rory Medcalf, head of the national security college at Australian National University. “It uses a tapestry of methods to achieve its goals: political donations, control of Chinese language media, mobilising community and student groups; and engaging in coercive activities that involve CCP proxies and even consular officials.”
Along with the carrots of economic engagement and market access, Beijing also uses sticks. Foreign journalists, politicians, businesspeople and academics regarded as “unfriendly” to China are refused visas to visit the country, attacked by state media and paid online trolls and sometimes targeted by Chinese hackers. The families of Chinese students and recent emigrants are often threatened by state security agents back in China if they are seen as stepping out of line while abroad.
One of the Chinese billionaires who allegedly provided donations to Mr Dastyari is Huang Xiangmo, founder of a property development company in Shenzhen who moved to Sydney with his family in 2011. Until recently he was chairman of the Australian Council for the Peaceful Reunification of China, a United Front-backed organisation.
As well as donating to politics, Mr Huang helped fund a China-focused think-tank at University of Technology Sydney, which has Bob Carr, a former Australian foreign minister, as its director. Mr Huang eventually resigned as chairman of the Australian-China Relations Institute’s advisory board when some academics questioned whether it was becoming a mouthpiece for Chinese propaganda."
https://www.ft.com/con…/d3ac306a-e188-11e7-8f9f-de1c2175f5ce
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