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...Continue Reading11 years gone / by page invest man
If the world had a button to reset
Then press back and start over in the past.
We might want to know what Mr. Thaksin wants to go back to do.
If thaksin is still in Thailand
And that day thaksin didn't sell chin corp to temasek.
Now Mr. Thaksin will be 1 of the 5 richest in Thailand.
Today is the 11th anniversary of the coup 19 September 2549
It seems like since that day, Thailand hasn't been the same anymore
That day, Mr. Thaksin Shinawa cuddle sq. Working as prime minister was in the us. When he met a coup, he has been taking refuge abroad since.
In fact, Mr. Thaksin came back to Thailand again in 2551 but it was a short time.
Today, the investment man page will tell the history of thaksin's business. Not talking about politics and ask for permission from readers. Don't comment on politics.
When I went back to see the history of shinawa family tree cuddle sq. Grandfather was Chinese. He evacuated to Chiang Mai. Selling silk from China. He set up a weaving factory and shinawa shop. Cuddle sq. Silk is famous. Mr. Thaksin also has a trade Helping Dad sell coffee and taking care of the theater
Year 2522
When I was 30 years old, I finished Phd.
Mr. Thaksin studied very well at 1 of the police cadet school and paid to continue studying until the Phd. When he returned to the police headquarters, he did personal business with both selling silk, selling film.
Year 2526
When I was 34 years old, Mr. Thaksin Set up shinawa company cuddle sq. Computer..
In the old days, trading with government, there were many requirements that made ibm companies, American nationality companies unable to sign a direct contract. So you appoint shinawa cuddle sq. Thaksin to be a company to sell computer to sell computers to government sector to make business Grow up
In addition to being an ibm agent, it also represent at & T TO SELL DATA KIT, data communication system with voice to the phone organization to get several radio frequency concessions from the national radio frequency coordination and management committee or frog. Road road By venture with foreign people, providing the first generation of Pager Pack and later made in the name of phone link.
Then Mr. Thaksin Got GSM 900 Mhz phone concession and Thai khom satellite
So Mr. Thaksin resigned after 8 years of service and a thousand police call was the last rank (but the rank was taken off by the police. In 2558)
Year 2533
At 41 years old, Mr. Thaksin Ipo, the company entered the stock exchange for the first time..
The main company of khun thaksin has 3 companies as follows.
Shinawa cuddle sq. Computer Service & Inwes Co Ltd. (shincorp or intouch currently established in 2526 IPO YEAR 2533, this company is holding company. 40.45 % shareholders. 40.45 % and Thai Sharp 41.41 %
Advance Infour Service Co Ltd. (AIS) established in 2529 IPO 2534
Shinsatellight Co Ltd. (Thai khom currently) Established 2534 IPO 2537
Mr. Thaksin did not shareholders ais and Thai khom, but shareholders in corp and took chin corp to hold ais and Thai khom again. It means that if thaksin sells all business to others, sell shares in chin corp.
After that, Mr. Thaksin started getting into politics by soliciting from the simuang simuang..
Year 2544
At 52 years old, Mr. Thaksin became the 23th Prime Minister and the first and only prime minister to come from the election until the term.
Before entering the position, Mr. Thaksin and wife have clarified the property of 15,124 million baht. There are many work under the government since the project of 30 baht. Cure all diseases. One Sub-District, one product converts assets into capital of Thai Kitchen, Converting cuddle state enterprise into a company in the lotto stock exchange on earth.
The Next 2th time won another election in 2548
If you have a lover, there must be haters.
On the other side of the administration, there are people who attack populist policies, not clarify the property details by claiming to run and
Several contracts have been changed to conducive cuddle sq. which causes the court decided to seize the money later time.
Year 2549 turning point
The peak won't be able to escape in 2549 Mr. Thaksin Sold Shin Corp shares to temasek, Singapore government investment company.
The deal was worth 73,274 million baht which was the highest historical deal in Thailand.
The first issue is thaksin selling shares after using the new telecommunications for only 2 days.
New Telecommunications. What's important?
This blessing allows foreign people to shareholders in telecommunications companies to increase from 25 % to 50 %
And it seems consistent that in 2 days later, Mr. Thaksin sold 49.595 % shares in shin corp company to temasek.
And another point is not paying taxes on selling shares.
Ampearl Rich is Mr. Thaksin's company in British Virgin. If you sell it to temasek straight away, you will pay taxes because ampearl rich is considered an entity. If the entity sells stocks has profit, you must pay taxes.
So Mr. Thaksin avoided amperrich to sell to your child thaksin at low price (low price so that ampearl rich will not have profit, make it not get tax) and give luu. I come to sell even if i have to try it again (because ordinary people trade shares in the stock exchange. No need to pay taxes)
In conclusion, this deal, Mr. Thaksin uses legal loophole that even the revenue department is confused. I don't know if i will collect tax.
Because if you look at the law straight away, you don't have to pay taxes. But the last revenue comment is that this intent is considered a law. Camouflage to be taxed
But anyway..
This story has changed Mr. Thaksin's life forever.
This is the point that makes big things grow up that Mr. Thaksin has to collapse the council and stories come to cause a political vacuum, so it caused a coup 11 years ago today..
Year 2553
The Supreme Court decided to seize Mr. Thaksin's money for 46,373 million baht to the land. For the reason is to use power as prime minister to benefit his business. Many contracts to conducive ais and Thai sharp to cost cheaper costs.
46,373 million baht that is the portion of profit and dividend after being prime minister.
In conclusion, Mr. Thaksin got money from temasek for 73,274 million baht without paying taxes, but he got seized for 46,373 million baht. Easy to think, it's only 26,901 million baht.
This does not include the IRS that will charge tax backwards from selling temasek shares. Mr. Thaksin thinks that the profit has been seized. What else will they collect tax because there is no profit, but the other one thinks it is different karma. I have the right to take over again.
The IRS charge tax with interest back 17,629.58 million baht.
If the IRS can keep it for real, thaksin's money will be 9,271.42 million baht (less than khun Rob's family. If you are now has property worth 19,409 million baht)
Year 2560
What if thaksin doesn't sell shares to temasek at that time, how much money will Mr. Thaksin have now?
Intouch Company (Original Shincorp). Now it's worth the company 189,980 million baht.
If thaksin holds the same shape at 49.595 % now it will be worth 94,220 million baht.
Many people may think it's a lot, but in fact, the dividend since 2549 that shin corp company paid all shareholders to 138,288 million baht. When multiply the proportion of 49.595 % will be 68,584 million baht.
When a total of 2 items together, you will get the answer that if Mr. Thaksin is still shareholders chin corp.
Mr. Thaksin will have 162,804 million baht..
This amount is 2 times more than the value that I sell to temasek and it can't compare to the rest of the money after being seized.
And If Mr. Thaksin is still shareholder, Mr. Thaksin should be ranked the 5th rich in Thailand as the owner of cp Thai Bev Central and red bull.
But Mr. Thaksin is now 68 years old and is taking refuge in Dubai. There are 7 lawsuits. Divorced with lady phjaman wife.
This makes me realize that no matter how rich people are, what they really want will be happiness, not money.
If the world has a button to reset and press back and start again in the same spot in the past.
Wonder if Mr. Thaksin wants to press that button? Mr. Thaksin wants to press reset back to 2544 and stop playing politics?
11 years ago, it would have been your lost 11 years. Thaksin.
But it's actually not thaksin, but it should be 11 years missing all of us..
Thailand Thailand
All the stories, what happened. We are all related from past to present.
Results from everyone's actions have resulted to this day.
And unfortunately for us that there is no reset button to go back.
But what will happen next is our future. We will give birth to the future.
So what kind of path will we all choose to be proud of the right path and don't want to press the reset button anymore..
" because it's our country.
Not a country of one, two people.
It's a country of all people.
Because the problem is at the time of birth. I will use the word crazy.
When people have severe practices, they forget themselves.
Ending. They don't know why they fight.
And what to solve?
Only to overcome
So who will win no way
It's dangerous. I only lose.
Well, different people lose.
Those who face loses.
And the most loser is the nation.
The people will be the whole country.
Not the people only in Bangkok
If assuming
Only in Bangkok is damaged.
The country is totally damaged.
And What's the use?
To be proud of winning
Time on the wreck "
His majesty king bhumibol adulyadej
20 may 2535Translated
dividend paid 在 君子馬蘭頭 - Ivan Li 李聲揚 Facebook 的最佳解答
睇招股書學語文! 識睇, 真係睇英文, 因為睇中文真係比較易出事
明報原文: http://bit.ly/2tFqqe4 毛記母公司申主板上市 林日曦等創辦人 每人累計袋2000萬息
呢度寫到 "部分用於派息的資金是源自融資,文件透露過去兩年公司分別集資1000萬元及3500萬元,用於支付股息。"
你會點理解? 我get到既意思係, 寫果個話 公司向街外 拎錢, 上市前派息比 腦細等三人. 咁, 派左息係真的, 唔使拗. 但, 係咪街外錢呢? 查 毛記照計冇咩銀行貸款 之類, 冇舉債喎.
咁未上市cap 水, 私募呀乜春 得唔得? 冇話唔得, 但一樣, 人地好少咁蝕底, 你叫我入股, 叫我拎三千萬然後落左你地(而唔係公司)袋, 你估有冇咁so?
好啦, 我睇番招股書, 中文版, 相信呢個誤會, 黎自第169 頁 (pdf就 176頁),
http://www.hkexnews.hk/…/2…/Documents/SEHK201707260012_c.pdf
入面咁寫的 "截至XXXX, 本集團融資活動所用現金凈額分別約為10.0百萬港元及35.0百萬港元, 為本集團的一家附屬公司向其當時股東派付的股息"
個重點, 就係最後果個 "為" 字!
呢度, 個"為", 應該讀"圍", 唔係"胃". 意思係 "that is", 唔係 "for the purpose"
成句理解係, "融資活動既cashflow係 1000萬同 3500萬, 就係 派左特別息"
而唔係 "融資活動既 cashflow係1000萬同 3500萬, 係為左用黎派特別息"
講到尾, 呢個 financing activities, 就係 派特別息, thats it. 唔係話 "公司去做一啲financing 用黎派特別息"
我未敢100% 肯定, 但我既理解應該冇錯.
因為英文版寫既係, net cash used in financing activities of approximately HKD10 million and HKD30 million respectively, which were the dividend paid blah blah blah
http://www.hkexnews.hk/…/201…/Documents/SEHK201707260011.pdf
記住, 係 "which were the dividend paid", 唔係 "for the purpose of paying dividend"
咁好簡單, 純粹就係上市前, 公司已經搵到錢, 就派左出去比 原本既股東, 腦細等三人. 好合理既安排, 喂, 而家唔派, 咪即係上市後同街外人分? 點解要益你?
大把公司既做法直頭係 未上市前借錢派比舊股東添, 然後隻野負債上市, 拎你啲錢去還債- 咁當然你可以唔抽.
咁當然啦, 記者咋喎, 仲要趕頭趕命, 夜晚八九點先知呢單料, 邊得閒慢慢睇, 出現呢啲小錯誤, 絶對情有可原
不過就真係記住, 識睇梗係睇英文
dividend paid 在 擁抱巴菲特(邱涵能) Facebook 的精選貼文
為何近5年來,可口可樂的股價無法像波克夏般成長?
有位海外的讀者問了我一個「大」問題:「為何可口可樂的股價無法像波克夏如此的成長?」
若要我精確地回答這個問題,我的答案是:「不知道!」
巴菲特的老師葛拉漢說:「短期來看,股市是個投票機;長期來看,股市是個體重機。」
孟格說:「98%的時間,我們對股市的認知是『不可知』!我們不知道股市會往哪裡走。」
不只我不知道,其他人也不知道。即使證券分析師也只是「猜」的。好吧!那我也來「猜猜看」。
我從鉅亨網找出可口可樂近5年的財報,我們先從簡略的財報來概略地分析。我們看資產負債表(Balance Sheet)的股東權益(Total Equity)或普通股股東權益(Common Shareholder's Equity);看損益表(Income Statement)的營收(Operating Revenue)、淨利(Total Net income)、EPS(Diluted EPS)、股利(Dividend Paid per Share)部分;再用今年的淨利➗去年的股東權益(2010年的股東權益為$31,003m),得到當年度的股東權益報酬率(ROE);用股利➗EPS,得到當年度的配息率。
從可口可樂近5年的財報來看,它的營收在2012年達到高峰以後,就逐步下滑。營收影響到淨利,同樣在2012年達到高峰後逐步下滑。甚至連EPS、ROE也ㄧ樣。難怪它近5年股價走勢起起伏伏,雖然有逐步走高。營收減少,淨利和EPS相對就減少,可是股利卻逐年增加,使得配息率ㄧ下子從51%升到79%。賺得較少,分配股利增多,使得股東權益減少,尤其在2014年和2015年大幅減少。投資人不喜歡這樣的走勢,也就反應在股價的走勢上了。
但是,評估可口可樂的內在價值,我認為,主要看的是淨利和EPS的成長,而非每股帳面價值。也就是說,主要以本益比(PER)來評估可口可樂;而非像波克夏,主要以本淨比(PBR)來評估;或者同時用本益比和本淨比(PER*PBR)來評估。波克夏為何只用本淨比(PBR)來評估內在價值,我書中有詳述。可口可樂主要用本益比(PER)來評估,是因為它的每股帳面價值不高,負債比又高;但是,少少的資本就能創造高ROE。正如巴菲特所說:如果可口可樂經營不善而破產了,只要憑藉它可口可樂的商標和號稱的秘方,就可以立刻向投資人募資,向各大銀行貸到款,立即重組新公司運作。所以,現有的帳面價值為可口可樂公司來說,只是內在價值的一小部分。它持續的營利能力、獲利成長,才是它更多的內在價值。
那好,近年來,可口可樂的股價是否合理?也就是說,它的股價相對於它的內在價值是否過高、過低還是剛好?
前面說到,可口可樂的內在價值主要以本益比(PER)來評估。所以,我們要先預估它的淨利、它的EPS該會是多少?
可口可樂近5年的EPS分別為$1.85, $1.97, $1.9, $1.6, $1.67,平均為$1.80。一般來講,PER=15為合理股價,PER<12或PER<10為便宜價,PER>20或PER>40就屬於昂貴價。假設以平均價的EPS=$1.80來算,$27為合理價,$18和$21.6以下為便宜價,$36和$72以上為昂貴價。但看它近5年股價走勢圖,最低在$32.3,最高在$46.8,都跌不到所謂「合理價」和「便宜價」內,似乎都在「昂貴價」以上。
巴菲特曾在波克夏股東大會上說:10年後,可口可樂的淨利能否成長一倍以上,我ㄧ點都不懷疑。
公司獲利我們看的是未來。所以,我們需要預估一個未來的EPS。既然,巴菲特說10年後可口可樂的淨利能成長ㄧ倍以上,那它樂觀的EPS應該是在$3.6左右。也就是說,所謂的「合理價」應為$54,「便宜價」應為$36和$43.2。那麼這5年來的股價都原則上在「便宜價」內。
你可以樂觀ㄧ點的看可口可樂的內在價值,例如值$43;也可以謹慎一點的看,例如值$21。但是,股市大眾不這樣看。他們隨公司獲利的起伏、消息的利與悲,「隨意隨興」買賣,「暫時」決定公司的股價。但公司長期的價格就像體重機般,該貼近它的內在價值。
巴菲特和孟格說:他們大部分的時間都在「閱讀與思考」,而不是看盤、關心股價。
至於波克夏的股價為何相對可口可樂強勢?
前面說到,波克夏的內在價值主要以本淨比(PBR)來評估。我書中也寫到,波克夏的合理買進價格在本淨比1.5倍以下(PBR<1.5)。但是,近5年來,波克夏的本淨比(PBR)都不高。也就是說,波克夏的股價沒有被高估。
再者,我書中提到:波克夏的股東結構很特別,幾乎沒有上市公司有和它一樣相同的股東結構--長期持股的股東結構。他們信任公司以及他們的董事長--巴菲特。
第三,最大股東也是絕對控制股東巴菲特,他和孟格不希望波克夏的股價波動太激烈,以致於讓部分股東受益,部分受害。變成受益股東的獲利來自受害股東的損失,而非藉由公司獲利為大家創造的價值成長。
所以,波克夏近幾年的股價相對可口可樂來講沒有高估,因此比較強勢--算不算是「瞎猜的」?
正如我書所寫:「若撇開波克夏控股公司,可口可樂股票是全世界最值得持有的!」(p.162)
可口可樂的內在價值,只有徹底研究它以及欣賞它的投資人才真正瞭解透徹。
PS. 更多關於可口可樂投資價值的論述,我的粉絲專頁和部落格皆有文章,尤其是《從數字看可口可樂》一文,可以參考。
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