Nightcrawler whistles | Lee Yee
High-ranking officials who have been sanctioned by the US and those who have not yet made it on the list have each responded, one after another, in a “One Country, One System” tone of voice. Apart from "resolutely opposed" and "severely condemned," they have not addressed the reasons behind the US’ decision for the sanctions. They say it is an honor to be sanctioned for the cause of the nation. Some simply issued statements in simplified Chinese characters, clearly not targeted at the Hong Kong people. The most ludicrous is that Carrie Lam said she was planning to proactively cancel her US visa that expires in 2026 anyways. It turns out that she cannot enter the US border because she “voluntarily canceled” it herself. Her Ah-Q-style, self-consoling spirit does not die!
An honor or a disgrace, it really depends on who issued the sanction. To be sanctioned by North Korea, Cuba, Russia or China is not the same as being sanctioned by the US. As such, feelings of glory or humiliation should be the opposite too. Some international experts and finance experts analyzed that the strictest clause is to “prohibit all transactions by US persons or within (or transiting) the US that involve any property or interests in property of designated or otherwise blocked persons.” If genuinely implemented, it would mean that the bank accounts and credit cards of sanctioned individuals will be canceled, their Facebook accounts will be shut down, McDonald’s cannot sell them Happy Meals, they cannot buy iPhones from Apple and cannot enjoy original factory maintenance services, etc. It is said that even China-funded banks will be black-listed because China-funded banks also have branches in the US. It is still uncertain whether these will be the case because never before have sanctioned individuals come from an international finance center such as Hong Kong. Although it is undetermined, the concerned parties cannot but consider the implications and countermeasures if confirmed. It is embarrassing enough just not to be able to use a credit card.
In 1969, the Soviet Union wanted to carry out a “surgical strike” on China’s nuclear base. It tried to gauge the reaction of the US, but the US halted them to stop. Why did not the Soviet Union test the water with other nuclear-weapon states such as the UK and France? This is because the US military power is strong enough to contain reckless military actions by other countries.
In 1971, Henry Kissinger made a secret visit to China and the Sino-US relations achieved a major breakthrough. That year, the United Nations (UN) General Assembly passed a motion to admit the entry of China in the UN. How is it that China had struggled for more than two decades to join the UN but managed to win the resolution this round? This is because the US had changed its China policy.
In 2000, the US granted China permanent normal trade relations status. The following year, China entered the World Trade Organization (WTO) and has since found prospering opportunities to become the World’s Factory in the global market. Why had China not been able to enter the WTO for so many years? This is because the US did not grant China this permanent normal trade status until this time.
When China and the US commenced diplomatic relations in 1979, Deng Xiaoping visited the US and said to his accompanying associate on the plane: “Looking back over the past few decades, all countries that have good relations with the US have prospered.” China has indeed thrived. What Deng did not say was that the countries that have unfriendly relations with the US have pauperized, such as Cuba, China before 1976, and even the Soviet Union, which had only strategic weapons, and its people had to line up to buy bread.
The Cold War after the Second World War was led by the US, and other Western countries followed. The US has always been the trending global leader with its national power, system, technology, dollar hegemony, pop culture, and free spirit. It is not that the US does not make mistakes, but its system and the spirit of freedom make it capable of correcting its mistakes. The US began the wave of diplomatic relations between Western countries and China in the 1970s, and the trend of investing in China in the 21st century. Without the US, China would still be isolated and impoverished. The US is now making amends and starting an ultra-cold war with China, which seems to have also shown a trend-setting momentum.
So, are sanctions the new direction? At least the Five Eyes Alliance will follow subsequently. Stop deceiving yourself with “I have no assets in the US” and “I do not want to go to the US.”
Therefore, not only eleven individuals and their families suffered insomnia last Friday night, but also some followers and those who did things against their conscience. Returning officers responsible for disqualifying nominees, wicked police officers, 18 members of the Council of the University of Hong Kong, and those who claimed not patriotic enough to make it to the first sanction list and not able to enjoy the honor. I’m afraid they did not get a wink of sleep either or at least suffered anxiety because only an idiot cannot see the true powers and the direction of the world trends.
The humiliation brought about by being cut off from US companies, the immediate considerations of various inconveniences, the spread of sanction from the US to other civilized countries, the devastating impact on the will to govern subordinates and the entire ruling team, and many more. These will not just happen overnight but will come one after another and very soon. The responses of the sanctioned high-level officials are really just nightcrawlers whistling.
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如果唔係有朋友話叫我番炒之前寫過關於Trump嘅嘢再鳩寫篇嘢,其實在下都唔係好想寫。
贏咗有酒飲有錢落袋係一件事,但係Donald Trump竟然真係做撚咗總統,在下其實唔知應該講咩好。所以之前一直都講,Brexit嘅結果就係打開咗個Pandora's box,就係令人覺得屌你連英國呢啲文明國家都竟然會公投脫歐,咁美國點解唔可以選Donald Trump呢啲撚樣做總統?Nate Silver應該俾人狂鞭屍,不過其實佢亦都強調咗好多次今次選舉嘅uncertainty比以往大,主要係因為游離票比往年多。
今次在下唔鞭屍啦。當年Brexit個結果都叫做manageable因為在下認為英國政府有能力處理同歐盟嘅脫歐談判,但係Donald Trump......佢完全就係一個大到無法估計嘅uncertainty。在下都係嗰句--我並唔認為佢係癲佬,但係問題嘅癥結係--佢而家係因為佢聽落嗰啲好癲嘅rhetoric而當選,再加上佢有GOP操控嘅congress同senate,佢呢個不滅金身應該可以玩一屆半屆(he can basically do whatever the fuck he likes within a certain limit)。你係佢你會唔會忽然話嘩屌我而家又變返正常囉?斷估都唔會。
在下都喺賴叔度講過--Trump應該會繼續佢嘅口出狂言,因為在下認為佢好有incentive去carry out佢講過嘅一啲政綱(畢竟呢個係佢當選嘅mandate之一),但係在下亦覺得佢應該唔會去到咁extreme。即係點?
1)佢會減企業稅,甚至用one-off嘅tax amnesty去嘗試吸返啲海外錢返美國呢啲policy應該會推行。再講呢啲咁business friendly嘅政策其實唔少企業應該會buy,屌你佢本身就係個商家佬;
2)Trump嘅經濟政策大部份都係以America first嚟做前題(例如佢反TPP嘅取態),所以支持度應該幾高推行亦唔會有啲咩問題,不過全世界就遭殃囉;
3)佢亦有incentives去收緊移民條例,趕走非法同有案底嘅難民/新移民呀,要做screening呀呢啲佢會做亦唔困難。不過,起牆叫墨仔埋單呢啲咁extreme嘅政綱在下認為佢唔會carry through鳥,不過嚇一嚇啲墨仔要佢地自動收緊埋邊防係一啲都唔出奇;
4)TPP呀,NAFTA呢啲佢會搞,佢會唔會literally rip it up?應該唔會,不過加入一啲對美國有利嘅條款呢個可能性會幾大。搞中國就更加唔難,label currency manipulator呀收關稅呢啲例飛嘢其實以往美國一直都有做開;
5)Dodd-Frank同Obamacare佢搞唔搞到?在下認為佢要搞都唔係咁容易,如果佢真係搞呢啲嘅話其實對個國家同埋佢自己真係無乜利,國會senate只會不停咁Dem打GOP係咁內耗徙時間,咁樣對佢連任一啲好處都無。所以喺呢啲法例入面加加減減某啲條款似係most likely outcome;
6)貨幣政策,debt level呢啲先係最令在下擔心嘅地方,因為競選期間Trump對呢啲嘢著墨甚少,呢啲就唯有睇下佢之後嘅言論同取態了。佢應該炒唔到Janet Yellen,不過唔俾second term佢,甚至搞audit the Fed呢吓應該無咩懸念;
7)佢要推expansionary fiscal policy都唔係咩難事,不過佢實際上點樣manage美國嘅debt level嘅話呢樣嘢在下就真係要晰目以待。不過有咩所謂吖,奧巴馬上場8年個debt level double咗but seriously who fucking cares?只要全世界嘅金融體系一日仲係dollar hegemony嘅話洗乜驚吖?
8)佢話唔會無條件做世界警察,甚至要收保護費,呢啲又係非常容易carry out嘅政策,之但係咪又係全世界遭殃咁囉。
如果Trump當選對全世界嘅金融市場嘅影響都只係短期震盪嘅話(同Brexit嘅outcome類同),咁其實FOMC 12月加息都基本上已成定局。