[天橋上的人]
星期五下午,港島頂級購物區繁忙非常。從金鐘廊走到太古廣場有一條行人天橋,巨型落地玻璃密封設計,讓行人可以遠眺整條金鐘道,俯瞰電車路的交通情況。在下午約4時,約一百人聚站在天橋的其中一邊,眼神同時望向遠處。路經這裡的有在附近工作的白領,和說英語的外籍人士。
在商場人潮裡,可以聽到這些對話:「何詩蓓真係好勁呀!」說的是這天早上代表香港出賽的游泳運動員,於今屆東京奧運已贏得第二面銀牌,是這天城中熱話,若包括早前勝出劍擊金牌的張家朗,香港運動員已在今屆奧運拿下了三面獎牌,是香港開埠以來最佳紀錄。
對於天橋上聚滿人,有不明所以的人走近,看到地上有人擺放了單張,「24歲的唐英傑 TONG Ying Kit is 24 years old,好人一生平安」,旁邊有唐早幾天因國安法入罪的中文資料,卻欠英語,有人用英語問:「What is this?」
這個城市,在狂喜和狂悲中搖擺。
從天橋上眺望遠處,正是連接太古廣場的最高法院。最高法院審訊案件,可判處刑期並不像區域法院有七年上限,嚴重案件都在這裡審訊。從高等法院進出的囚車,需要路經繁忙的金鐘道,但這天警方佈陣下,不但記者被隔到老遠,市民就更能只站在商場的天橋上遠眺。
從天橋位置到囚車出入位置,相隔約150米。以往「送囚車」的人們大喊或揮動手機燈,車內人看得見,這天,百多米外的眺望,只能遙記心意。
第一宗國安法審訊於周二(27日)判兩項罪名成立,三天後即今午宣佈刑期。判決有沒有罪的那天,法院來旁聽的記者人數,要比這天宣判刑期的更踴躍。那時全球記者關注「光時」口號是否入罪,這天判刑,記者人數略為減少。
然而,本地市民旁聽的意欲則沒有減退。早上八時已有中年女士來排隊拿旁聽票。最後,內庭及庭外直播票,公眾人士入場總人數約170人,出現「爆庭」現象。
其中,只有20名熱心市民能夠入到庭內。他們以中年人士為主。有人坐下來低聲互相提醒:「這個庭很細小,只能入二十人」「我們這個位置最接近唐英傑」「一會兒宣判時我們不要有太大的情緒反應以免影響家屬」「我已與唐的家人交換電話,希望將來可以探望,互相支持。」
市民拿的是紫色票,家屬拿的是白色票。然而,家屬票並不夠。
下午2時40分,市民及記者均入坐。家屬較遲到來,一名微胖紥馬尾的少女,拿着「市民票」向坐在較前的旁聽公眾低聲說:「我們是家屬,想坐在一起,可以跟你們交換座位嗎?」公眾隨即把最前的位置讓出,少女連連道謝。
長髮的唐英傑母親,穿着白色麻質套裝,腳踏平底鞋出現。她化了淡粧,做了粉色美甲,戴着紅色手鍊。她和幾名年輕女性親友一起,坐在最接近犯人欄的家屬席。
開庭前,年輕女孩不時拍拍唐母的肩,跟她談話時輕撫着唐母的背,或輕輕跟唐母牽手以示鼓勵。她們的座位距唐英傑約十呎,可以清楚跟唐交換眼神。
下午2時57分,唐英傑終於在懲教職員押送下出來。以往審訊時,唐會提早一點出來露面,可是,這天卻調校到距離開庭很短的時間才讓他出來,於是變相減少了唐可以與律師溝通的時間,或與家人對望的時刻。
法庭的時光,客觀上是一回事,主觀亦有另一種感受。
冗長的審訊,時間像特別漫長;但判決及判刑,又如電光火石。
身型壯碩的唐英傑,穿着十多日審訊的那套衣服出現。灰藍色西裝外套,黑色恤衫,髮型清爽但這天頭髮有點凌亂。甫步入犯人欄,唐先舉起左手跟律師打招呼,轉而望向母親及幾位年輕女性親友。
女性親友不時俯身,嘗試找角度能夠與唐保持眼神接觸。因為犯人欄的橫柵,與及防飛沫膠片的阻隔,令視線有所阻擋。女子們不時從座位做心心手勢,鼓勵唐。
律師趁開庭前的寶貴時間,拿了文件遞給唐,揭開防飛沫膠布跟他對話。唐亦把紙張交給律師。
唐英傑接過即時傳譯的耳機,把主機插向自己的西裝的左胸口袋,再把耳塞塞進左耳,再用手指托一托滑落的眼鏡。
不一會兒,一名駕駛着電動輪椅的中年婦人進來,被安置在家屬旁。她是一名熱心市民到來旁聽的市民,法庭未開始,她已經在拭淚。
3時04分, “Court!”的男聲喊出,三名法官步出坐在席上。法官杜麗冰用英語宣佈她不會詳細把判刑的原因詳細讀出,只挑選判刑重點來讀。
她以英語說出 “Six and a half years and eight years respectively for counts 1 and 2….”
判刑是否分期執行,還是同期?
杜官再說,如果當初唐選擇認罪,會是有減刑可能,但今次唐選擇不認罪。唐有幾次交通相關案底,於國安法判刑則不相關,會視他為「良好品格」。法庭亦表示同情唐的家庭狀況,作為唯一的經濟支柱,而其祖母亦有重病。但認為這些是「被告人應該在犯案前考慮的事」。
杜官指出,兩控罪雖然來自同一組事實(即開着插有「光時」旗的電單車衝過警方防線),但「兩罪是分開而明確的 (separate and distinct offences)」。
正當大家在疑惑究竟總刑期多長的時候,杜官又說會行使 “totality principle” (整體判刑原則)。
杜官最後交出一個數字,其中2年半刑期分期執行,總刑期9年。
杜官說,這刑期反映了「被告人的罪行嚴重性,社會人士對罪行的厭惡度,並達至阻嚇性」。
旁聽席上的人互相交換疑惑的眼神,大家對繁複的法庭英語不太聽得入耳,只關注總刑期多長。大家互相在電話上的筆記簿寫上數字,交換眼神。
唐英傑專心聽着耳機,翻譯員以廣東話給他解釋了自己未來命運。唐聽到這裡時,坐得腰板挺直,雙手放在膝上,偶爾用左手食指托一托鼻上的眼鏡,或飛快的揚一揚眉。
直至聽到總刑期後,唐才放鬆了一點點。當法官解釋要吊銷其駕駛執照達十年,唐英傑再向家屬席做心心手勢。
此時法官再談及充公證物的處理。
說時遲那時快,才20分鐘,又有人喊 “Court!”,判刑程序完畢,三名法官離席。旁聽席的人如夢初醒,等待了六、七個小時,為了見唐一面,時光就如此飛逝。「吓?咁快既?即係判幾多年?」旁聽席的人互相追問。
此時法庭有點混亂,坐在輪椅的女士大喊兩次:「抗爭無罪!」保安衝前阻止。唐英傑起身走向羈留室方向,亦即與家屬席最接近的時候。家屬都站起來靠向唐。
有人從旁聽席大喊:「重甲!撐住呀!」
「重甲」是唐英傑在反修例運動的綽號,他愛穿着保護裝備擔任義務救護員。
唐英傑在混亂中回了一句:「你哋都要撐住!」然後身影消失在法庭裡。年輕女親友互相擁抱,痛哭起來。
唐英傑的辯護律師團隊,走近家屬身邊解釋情況,再次確認判刑刑期。
判刑書長達15頁,在法庭外向記者派發,其中一段披露了唐英傑多封求情信內容。
「求情信中指,被告人是個思想單純,心地善良而且孝順父母的兒子,他供養妹妹到海外留學。」
「唐父形容,兒子容易被政治影響,亦受到『不良出版影響,令他做了錯事』。」
「唐的auntie形容,(唐英傑)『受到一些社會人士及傳媒的錯誤報導影響』。」
而判刑書亦有引述唐英傑自己向法庭親撰的求情信內容:「被告人表示感到後悔,現在明白政治看法是觀點與角度問題,最重要還是做人的品格。他亦表達到,希望社會把仇恨放下。」
(For the Defendant himself, he wrote to express his remorse, saying that he had now come to realise that political views are matters of perspectives and should not be more important than human decency. He also expressed the hope that the society might put aside hatred.)
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2017年盛暑拍畢《巨神連線》,心律不整差點心肌梗塞向閻羅王報到,意識死神隨伺在側,人生苦短,如何了生脫死、盡斷煩惱、無所罣礙、遠離顛倒……總不得解,蒙釋迦摩尼佛開示飆淚三晝夜,聞佛法數載始知自我渺如塵埃,甚感慚愧。閒暇乃參訪名寺古剎,禮敬焚香佛陀菩薩羅漢諸神天仙王爺媽娘,台灣宮廟千奇百怪、宗派錯綜複雜(佛教、道教、一貫道、天主教、基督教、齋教、回教&大同教、儒教鑾堂、天帝教&天德教、慈惠堂&勝安宮、軒轅教、道院、理教、萬國道德會、會靈山……)、神棍橫行(依人不依法、偶像崇拜、斂財、邪淫),因歷史變遷、社會動盪、政治鬥爭、意識形態等因素導致佛道混雜,但地獄造景稀少,後專注拍攝各殿閻王、判官、陰司、獄卒、七爺、八爺乃至一切罪人,各寺造景巧妙、耐人尋味,意境乖張溢於言表,造型扭曲非常人所能塑也,然匠心獨運、自成一格,專研西方藝術數十載方知真誠樸拙最美,絲毫不輸喬托(Giotto di Bondone,1267~1337)乃至米開朗基羅(Michelangelo Di lodovico Buonarroti Simoni 1475 ~ 1564)矣。
創立於1986年的石門金剛宮風景優美可眺望北濱,雖主祀四面佛,儒釋道眾神尊也不含糊,可過七星橋解厄、繞行五百黝黑羅漢敲鑼印心、跪拜亞洲最大臥佛涅槃像,安太歲自不在話下,甲子太歲爺雙眼長出手掌印象甚深,1994年經閻羅王指示廟公建造一條肚內設極樂世界及陰曹地府之神龍,行走暗黑通道觸動感應機關,只見面容猙獰受刑者呼天搶地喊冤、身邊盡是血肉糢糊殘肢敗屍腦漿塗地,十殿閻羅各司其職、威儀攝人。新北市林口區青嶺湖北文紫祥宮包公廟則以壁面彩塑地獄浮雕獨步全台,粉嫩色彩搭配卡漫風格,尤為造型簡直恐怖到可愛透頂,該廟主祀森羅殿閻羅天子包拯(包青天),陽世冤屈者可至此參拜祭解,求破懸案者眾,逢中元普渡皆以紙紮船渡亡魂至彼岸,全台唯一閻羅天子巨像籌備中,四周環繞墓地,適合修不淨觀也。台灣首尊彰化八卦山大佛旁南天宮(1971)地府則是首座電動地府,規模精小但驚嚇度破表,略顯破敗但五光十色仍蠻凶悍,出自已故台南大道長金登富之作,而電動神明起始可追溯至1960年代北港朝天宮。倒是嘉義水上鄉白人牙膏觀光工廠「戴相府」、「將軍府」設置十殿地府出乎意料之外,乾淨亮麗、ㄧ殿ㄧ間、簡單樸實。由高雄蓮潭龍虎塔龍口入內可見全臺唯一交趾陶地獄牆面,尊尊栩栩如生,續入龍身乃進聞聲救苦白衣觀音大士三十三化身浮雕隧道,造型設色甚為古錐。高雄大岡山超峰寺入口處「西方三聖蓮池海會」(阿彌陀佛、觀世音菩薩、大勢至菩薩巨像)旁設靜態十殿閻羅(1970年代初),雖略為陳舊然韻味猶存,續往上行可抵「證菩提道-釋迦如來應化事迹」雕塑園區,一攬世尊畢生精華。如來年邁時,琉璃國王為報長期被釋迦族輕蔑之傲慢心,世尊雖三次單獨伽跌坐 阻擋大軍進攻之路,但因緣果報無法逆轉,昔日婢女所生王子瞋恨無以復加,還是滅了祖國。自持神通第一目犍連不忍無辜百姓慘遭屠殺,遂以缽盛救度五百族人,最終卻化為血水,佛言神通廣大仍不敵千百劫業力,因緣果報屢試不爽。其母死後墜入餓鬼道飢餓難耐,目犍連遂展神通救渡,但所食尚未入口皆化為赤火,佛陀囑咐農曆七月十五日僧眾解安居自恣日,於盆中設甘露美食供養十方僧眾,因此超度亡母。後世「盂蘭盆法會」乃至「水懺法會」、「瑜珈焰口法會 」皆為消業障、斷塵垢之超渡儀軌,既渡亡魂也自懺悔。
台南麻豆代天府規模宏大、造型豔麗,不但可遊十八層地獄尚可逛天堂(1979年興建,1983年開放),燈光絢爛、聲響駭人,獨自漫步宛如觀落陰、地獄走一回。先過「心頭山」、入「清心池」、進「陰陽界」、抵「交簿廳」、達「鬼門關」、遊「補經所」、探「枉死城」、行「奈何橋」,至ㄧ殿泰廣王照「孽鏡台」現造惡原形,睹抱柱、火床等小地獄。二殿楚江王開「陰查簿 」判案定奪,觀糞尿泥、餓鬼、舞池、寒冰、膿血、鞭韃、舌犁、劍葉、戟腹拋接、砧截……等小地獄。三殿宋帝王刑罰為倒吊、銅鐵刮臉、挖眼、搗樁、倒烤、吸血、穿肋、抽筋、蛆蛀等小地獄……兼遊「四生(胎、卵、濕、化)回魂府」。四殿五官王掌管腰斬、拔舌、沸湯、刺嘴、剝皮、箭樹、車崩、射眼……等十六小地獄。隨五殿森羅王豋「望鄉臺」回眸親人最終眼後觀擊膝、誅心、刀山、飛刀火石……小地獄。六殿卞城王別稱「大叫喚大地獄」,轄火牛、虎啖、噬腎、鉗嘴含鍼、釘喉、磨摧、砍頭……等小地獄。七殿泰山王為「熱惱大地獄」,窺烙手指、抽腸、頂石蹲身、油釜滾烹、割舌穿腮……等十六小地獄。八殿都市王掌管「大熱惱大地獄」兼火狗、鐵汁、鐵蛇、鋸劈斷肢、釘板、灸脊、鐵丸、磅秤……等小地獄。九殿平等王直轄十八層「阿鼻大地獄」,直透地心、內中陰森、不見五指、滿溢地漿,皆為極犯,另轄紫赤毒蛇鑽孔、夾頂、鐵鴉、針雨、蜂蠍……等小地獄。至十殿輪轉王上「觀生臺」、「轉劫所八司」(查驗司 、稽善司 、考過司 、恩怨司 、壽命司 、支配司、掌劫司 、授生司)後至「孟婆亭」飲「醧忘湯」忘盡前塵往事,依前世功德過金、銀、玉、石、木、竹六種橋樑至「轉輪臺(紫河車)」入六道輪迴轉生投胎。據《十八泥犁經》記載,人過世後七七四十九天為「中陰生」,經閻羅王審判善惡業力判定去留或懲罰百千萬劫,犯五逆重罪則墮入「無間地獄(阿鼻地獄)」永劫不復。地藏王乃幽冥教主,統轄十殿閻羅,逢三曹普渡便在各殿設「講道所」超度尚存善根之鬼魂。
人類居於五趣(阿修羅、人、傍生、餓鬼、地獄)雜居地五濁惡世之堪忍世界,犯十惡業(殺生、偷盜、邪淫、妄語、兩舌、惡口、綺語、貪慾、嗔恚、愚痴)者必墮三趣惡道。如何出「三界」(欲界、色界、無色界)二十八天?凡人無此意識,別說能破「十二因緣」(無明、行、識、名色、六入、觸、受、愛、取、有、生、老死)還滅門,更別想斷除「四聖諦」(苦、集、滅、道)集地八十一品見惑與八十八使思惑(五利使-身見、邊見、邪見、見取見、戒禁取見、五鈍使-貪、瞋、癡、慢、疑),了悟「五蘊」(色、受、想、行、識)本空、「十二入」(眼、耳、鼻、舌、意、色、聲、香、味、觸、法)空、「十八界」空,破俱生我執與分別我執、法執甚至空執,生十一處「善心所」(信、精進、慚、愧、無貪、無瞋、無痴、輕安、不放逸、行捨、不害),降二十六處「惡心所」(貪、瞋、癡、慢、疑、惡見、忿、恨、覆、惱、嫉、慳、誑、諂、害、憍、無慚、無愧、掉舉、惛沉、不信、懈怠、放逸、失念、散亂、不正知),須知善根斷盡則陷永劫輪迴、無垠轉世之苦。
地獄可能空滅嗎?若地獄空乏人間多鬼怪,地獄淨空世間何嘗非淨土?若能證空性何處現地獄?
地獄曠古來便廣泛流傳各部族間,老死生滅為自然運行之基礎、宇宙意識之核心,然今文明昌盛如咱城邦並非慾望消弭之所,惡性所及實無可根除,礙於憲法國家法律社會軍隊企業公司學校家庭團體之層層束縛不亞於十八層,乃遁於壓抑、束己情懷,暗埋心底、日久貪嗔痴慢疑怨噌會疊穢。而六塵未熄,心多妄念,妖魔鬼怪魑魅魍魎孤魂閃靈出沒於荒郊乃至人間,會靈於曠野密林以增性靈乃出世高人修煉之舉,我等凡人擅闖宛如迪士尼般之人造地獄,三魂七魄尚不足以出竅,驚邪恐怖淒厲猙獰倒滿足了自以為是的慚愧,豈不謬哉?
病毒肆虐年半有餘,全球確診者逼近一億八千萬,枉死者近四百萬,堪比戰爭規模,望眾生發慈悲心、令往生者安息、善待其他物種、平等有情眾生。地獄本空,唯妄念生起一切羨慕嫉妒恨而地獄現前。盡以此書作為世界新冷戰獨裁者、超限戰者、暗網駭客、陰險狡猾冷嘲熱諷落井下石者之良知備忘錄矣。
姚瑞中寫於2021年端午節
Postscript
I have been living recklessly in Taiwan for more than fifty years. According to Zi Wei Dou Shu (Purple Star Astrology), Tan Lang is the sole star in my house of Self. This star, which represents xxx, forms an equilateral triangle with that star Qi Sha and Po Jun on the square chart and constitutes a Sha Po Lang pattern. The pattern indicates a kind of turbulence and change, a life of wandering with ups and downs and it tells a lot about my life. After my ill-fated youth, I started from scratch and traveled around the world with exhibitions that I participated. Like a flaneur, I wandered around ruins, nature, and temples with every type of film camera obliviously. Thus, I founded the Hall of Illusion and claimed to be the master of the hall. Several times a day, I pondered a quote from the Diamond Sutra, “Everything with form is unreal.” In addition, I usually stayed in the darkroom developing film and enlarging those negatives overnight. However, I treasured the simplicity of the black and white world. The earthly, gaudy, garish, phony and pleasing qualities within colored photos make the images even more realistic than the real world. It is not my cup of tea, so I seldom took colored photos. In Confucian thought, the age of fifty marks the stage knowing the mandate of Heaven. I am now at my fifties and realize how ephemeral human life is. However, I am not an immortal, nor having sagelike characteristics. I just learned that the stage of stainless (the second bhūmi) and develop a pure mind that is free from doubt and defilement. However, I’m still far from the immovable state and need to practice.
In the summer of 2017, after filming the work Incarnation, I experienced a severe heart rhythm problem which almost triggered myocardial infarction and could have killed me. Consequently, I realized that death was waiting for me and the life is too short to figure out how I can liberate myself from the cycle of Birth and Death. I couldn’t comprehend how to be free from all afflictions and worries and how to avoid delusive ideas. I wept for three days and nights after being enlightened by Shakyamuni Buddha. Up to the moment, I felt ashamed that I failed to realize that the self is as insignificant as dust after these years learning and practicing Buddhism. Since then, I have visited famous temples and monasteries in my spare time, worshiping Buddha, Bodhisattvas, arhats, and all the deities and immortals. Taiwan’s temples are myriad with a enormous number of sects, including Buddhism, Taoism, Yiguandao, Catholicism, Christianity, Chinese religions of fasting, Islam& Baháʼí Faith, Confucianism, Tiandiism& Tian-De Teachings, Xiwangmu cult, Yellow Emperor Sect, Precosmic Salvationism, Liism, World Wide Ethical Society, séance cult, etc. Some people even claim that they can mediate communication between the deities or spirits of the dead with human beings, having their believer rely on themselves instead of the orthodox dharma or dogma and pay excessive respect and admiration for the mediums or objects, accumulating wealth through such an unfair means or even harassing their believer sexually. Due to Taiwan’s historical changes, social turbulence, political struggles, and ideological issues, Buddhism and Taoism are somehow mixed. However, there are few emphases on the concept of the hell. As I took photographs of Yama of each court, judges, wardens of the underworld, jailers, General Fan and Hsieh (the ghost escorts) and all sinners, I found few temples cleverly created hellish scenes that are intriguing, exaggerating, and extraordinary. However, the creations are unparalleled unique. I have been studying Western arts for decades and then I came to realize that simplicity makes the most beautiful works of art. These hellish scenes can even compete with works of Giotto di Bondone (1267-1337) and Michelangelo Di lodovico Buonarroti Simoni (1475-1564).
Jingang Temple Shimen District, founded in 1986, overlooks the beautiful North shore. Although the temple is mainly dedicated to Phra Phrom (the Thai representation of Mahabrahma), spirits of Confucianism, Buddhism, and Taoism can also be founded in the temple. The worshipper can go cross the Seven Star bridge to relieve bad luck, walk along the five hundred arhat statues and knock on the gong to affirm one’s Buddha nature. Furthermore, the worshipper can also prostrate themself before Asia’s largest statue of Buddha in Nirvana (the Reclining Buddha statue) and pacify the Taoist Tai Sui deity of the year. I was impressed by the Jia-Zi Tai Sui General that a pair of palms grow out of his eyes. In 1994, the biō-kong (the person taking charge of the temporal affairs of a temple) received a divine inspiration from Yama (the King of Hell) that he had to build a sacred hall in the shape of a divine dragon, with the interior designed according to the World of Ultimate Bliss and the Underworld. When the visitor walks in the dark hallway, they will see the tortured people (dioramas, of course) scrunching their faces and crying bitterly and loudly in excessive grief as the visitor triggers the mechanism. One will even find them in the midst of flesh, body liquid and blood, mutilated limbs, and rotten corpses. While each of the ten Yamas are focusing on their own duties, showing their sacred dignity that collect visitors’ attention. The Baogong Temple in Linkou District, New Taipei City exclusively features colorful depiction of hellish scenes in relief in Taiwan. With its pastel shades and cartoon-like style, the relief is both grotesque and adorable at the same time. This temple is dedicated to Bao Zhen (also known as Justice Bao) representing the incarnation of Yama. Living people who have been treated unjustly can come worshipping Bao Gong and receive exorcism. Therefore, many people come here for seeking to solve unsolved cases. In Zhongyuan Festival (the ghost festival), the temple will burn the Zhizha (paper craft) boat to ferry the ghosts to the other shore, which is the shore of enlightenment. The only giant statue of Yama in Taiwan is still in the making. The temple is surrounded by a cemetery, suitable for meditating on the loathsomeness and impurity. Nantian Temple (1971), located next to the Eight Trigram Mountains Buddha in Changhua, features the first animatronic underworld. Despite the small size, the animatronic underworld is intensely shocking. Though it’s slightly worn, the colorful dioramas are still brutally ferocious. The creator was the late venerable Dao Zhang (Taoist priest) Jing Deng-fu while the origin of animatronic deities can be traced back to the 1960s Beigang Chaotian Temple. On the contrary, the Whiteman Toothpaste Tourism Factory in Shuishang Township, Chiayi, features ten Yamas with individual booth. The place is unexpectedly clean and polished yet keeps a simple and modest tone. Then, the Dragon Pagoda of the Dragon and Tiger Pagodas at Lotus Lake in Zuoying, Kaohsiung, holds the only relief of hellish scenes made of Kochin ceramic. All the figures are vivid and life-like. If one goes further into the pagoda, they will see a relief tunnel of the thirty-three incarnations of the white-robed form of Guanyin (Avalokiteśvara) on a white lotus, with a lovely and interesting design. Another Hall of Yama is built in the 1970s next to the entrance of Dagangshan Chaofeng Temple, located in the Alian District of Kaohsiung. Visitors will also see three statues of the Three Holy Ones of the Western Pureland (Amitābha, Avalokiteśvara, Mahāsthāmaprāpta) which assemble at a lotus pond. Although the hellish scene looks somewhat antiquated, you may still find its previous charm. If one goes further, they will reach the sculptural garden of “Attaining the Bodhi Way: the Incarnation of Sakyamuni Buddha,” where the visitor can see the essence of Bhagavato’s (meaning the Blessed one, one of the common epithets for Buddha) life. When Tathāgata (another epithet for Buddha) was old, the king of Kosala wanted to avenge the arrogance of the tribe of Shakyas who had long despised him, regarding him as a son of a maiden. Although Buddha has sat in lotus position alone three times to stop the army from attacking his tribe. However, one can never reverse the cause and following karma. The prince born of a maiden was so furious that he eventually destroyed his homeland. Maudgalyāyana (one of the Buddha’s closest disciples), who is said to have had supernatural abilities that surpassed the other disciples, could not bear to see the slaughter of innocent people. Thus, he saved five hundred people of his tribe with a pātra (an eating utensil of Buddhist monks). Unfortunately, everything he did was in vain, those who were saved eventually turned into a puddle of blood. The Buddha said that the supernatural abilities cannot surpass the power of karma. The cause and effect work all the time. When Maudgalyāyana’s mother fell into the path of hungry ghost, he used his supernatural abilities to save his mother from hunger. However, all the food turned into fire before being fed to his mother. Later, the Buddha commanded the monks to put nectar and dishes in a basin on the 15th day of the seventh month in the lunar calendar for the monks from all directions to free his mother from reincarnation. In later times, the Ullambana Dharma Service, the Compassionate Samadhi Water Repentance, and the Yoga Collection for Feeding the Searing Mouths Dharma Service are rituals to eliminate karmic hindrance and to cease to worldly delusions. Through such practices, one can free the dead as well as confess their repentance.
Madou Daitian Temple is a magnificent and colorful temple in Tainan. Not only can the worshippers visit the eighteen levels of Hell but also the Heaven (it was built in 1979 and inaugurated in 1983) here. The lighting and sound effects are stunning and frightening. When walking alone in the space, one may feel like taking a Guan Luo Yin trip (a Taoist necromancy which leads people’s spirits to hell and communicate with the dead ones) to visit the underworld prison. Before arriving the first court of the underworld, the visitor will walk through the Mountain of Heart Summit, the Pure Heart Pond, the Frontier between the Living and the Dead Realms, the Soul Registry Hall, the Portico of Demons, the Center for Complementary Teaching of Canonical Books, the Citadel of Premature Death, and the Bridge of Vanity. When one arrives at the first court, they will see King Chin-guang, who is in charge of the court, using the Mirror of Retribution to show the earthly form of evil creatures and also witness the sub-hell of Pillar-Holding and Fire Bed, etc. At the second court, King Chu-jiang collates the register of sins the souls of the dead have committed to impose the punishments. Here, you will see the sub-hell of Excrement and Urine, Hungry Ghost, Burning Dance Floor, Ice, Pus and Blood, Whipping, Tongue-Raking, Sword Blade, Stomach-Piercing, Chopping, etc. Next, the dead at the third court, ruled by King Song-di, will receive the punishments including inversion tortures, face-skinning with steel and copper knife, eye-wrenching, pounding, blood-sucking, rib-piercing, roasting, tendon-taking, being eaten by maggots. The visitor can pay a visit to the Palace of Soul-Resuscitation for the Four Forms of Creatures (birth from an egg, birth from a womb, birth from moisture, and birth by transformation). King Wu-guan is in charge of the fourth court. There are sixteen sub-hells at the fourth court including Waist Chop, Tongue Removal, Boiling Pond, Mouth-stabbing, Skin-peeling, Sword Tree, Burning Wheels and Cart, Eye-shooting, etc. Next, at the fifth court, sinful souls are allowed to ascend the Tower of Hometown-Viewing to take a final look of their family. The visitor will witness sub-hells of Knee-striking, Heart-slicing, Blade Mountain, Flying Swords and Burning Stones, etc. The King of Bian City takes charge of the sixth court, which is also known as the “Great Hell of Screaming,” with sub-hells including Fire Cattle, Tiger-Biting, Kidney-Eating, Mouth-Poking, Throat-Nailing, Iron Mill, Decapitation, etc. The King of Tai-shan is in charge of the seventh court, the “Great Hell of Heat and Fire.” The sixteen sub-hells at this court include Finger-Searing, Bowel-Hauling, Stone-Bearing, Boiling Oil, Tongue-Removal and Cheek-Piercing, etc. Next, the King Du-shi is in charge of the eighth court, the “Great Hell of Intense Fire and Heat,” and the sub-hells including Fire Dogs, Molten Iron, Iron Snakes, Dismemberment, Steel Spikes, Burning-Marrow, Iron Ball, Scale, etc. The ninth court is ruled by the King Ping-deng. It is known as the biggest court, Avici Hell (the Hell of Incessant Suffering), which if the lowest level of the hell realm and the interior is gloomily and terrifyingly dark. Those who committed the most serious evil deed will be sent to the Avici Hell. Sub-hells such as Poisonous Snake, Brain-Removal, Crow-Gnawing, Raining Needles, Wasps and Scorpions are included at this court. After arriving the tenth court, ruled by the Great King of the Reincarnation Palace, one can visit the “Observatory of Life on earth” and the “eight bureaus of the Reincarnation Palace” (including the Bureau of Judicial Control, the Bureau of Good-Actions, the Bureau of Bad-Actions, the Bureau of Debts, Gratitude, and Vengeance, the Bureau of Longevity and Destiny, the Bureau of Familial Ties, the Bureau of the Reincarnated, and the Bureau of Birth). The sinful one will be sent to the Pavilion of Mengpo and made to drink the Soup of Forgetfulness to forget all past affairs. According to the sinful one’s merits of previous life, they will go across one of the six bridges (gold, silver, jade, stone, wood, bamboo) to the “Reincarnation-Wheel (Wheel on the Crimson River).” Finally, one is able to reborn in the six realms. According to the Aṣṭadaśa nāraka sutra ( the Eighteen Hells Sutra), after one passes away, they will enter an intermediate and transitional state between death and rebirth, known as antarābhava in Sanskrit, for forty-nine days. The being will be evaluated by Yama, who will decide if one should get reborn or get punished at the hell. Those who committed the Five Grave Offenses (killing one’s father, killing one’s mother, killing an Arhat, shedding the blood of a Buddha, and creating a schism within the community of Buddhist monks and nun who practice for attaining enlightenment.) will be sent to the Avici Hell and stay there eternally. Kṣitigarbha is the Lord of the Nether World, ruling the ten court of Hell. The lord will set up the “Hall of Teaching” at each court to salvage those sinful ones who still obtain few merits at the offering rituals.
Human beings live the Sahā world (sahāloka in Sanskrit, meaning “endurance of suffering,” a concept of mundane world in Mahāyāna Buddhism) where they share with other reincarnations (including beings of the hells, of the preta, and of malevolent nature spirits) with five turbidities (the Kalpa turbidity, the view turbidity, the affliction turbidity, the living beings turbidity, and the life turbidity). Those who commit the ten evil deeds (killing, stealing, adultery, lying, using immoral language, slandering, equivocating, coveting, anger, and false views) must fall into the three evil paths (animals, preta, and hell). However, how can one escape from the three realms/ twenty-eight heavens (including the six heavens of the desire realm, the eighteen heavens of the form realm, and the four heavens of the formless realm)? Worldly people who don’t have such an awareness cannot leave the cycle of the twelve nidanas (meaning causes or motivations), let alone eliminate the eighty-one afflictions (that have been produced due to misunderstanding regarding reality) and the eighty-eight illusions (including five afflictions of advanced practitioners, also known as five views: view of self, extreme view, evil view, view of attachment to views, and view of morality; and five unintelligent temptations: desire, anger, stupidity, arrogance, and doubt) of thought within the three realms and four Arya satyas (noble truths, including suffering, arising, ending, and path). They cannot realize that the essence of the five skandhas (referring to aggregates of clinging, including the matter of form, sensation, recognition, mental formation, and consciousness) , the twelve ayatana (meaning sense base, including six internal bases: eye, ear, nose, tongue, body, and mind and six external bases: visible objects, sound, odor, taste, touch, and mental objects), and the eighteen dhātavah (meaning compositional elements of human existence, including six consciousness, six faculties, and their objects) are the emptiness and the void. Furthermore, they cannot dispel the two reasons for clinging to the idea of the self and the attachment to elemental constructs and even believe in the two (false) tenets that that karma and nirvana are not real and that the ego and phenomena are real. As a consequence, they fail to develop the eleven wholesome mental factors (faith, energy, conscience, being ashamed, non-attachment, non-aggression, non-delusion, calmness, equanimity, conscientiousness, and non-injuriousness) and cease the sixteen unwholesome mental factors (desire, greed, anger, delusion, arrogance, doubt, wrong view, wrath, enmity, hypocrisy, vexation, jealousy, parsimony, deceit, flattery, harming, ambitiousness, stupidity, lacking of faith, idleness, being unrestrained, forgetting, distraction, non-discernment, ). One must bear in mind that once all our virtuous roots are discontinued, they will be trapped in the never-ending reincarnation and the suffering of infinite continuity.
Is it possible that the hell will be empty one day? If the beings in hell will become extinct while evil spirits inhabit the mundane world, the world could be considered as a pure land. If we could witness the nature of the void, then hell will exist no more.
Since ancient times, the concept of hell has been widely spread among all tribes. Aging, death, beginning, and end are the basis of nature and the core of cosmic consciousness. However, the prosperous civilization as our island is not a place where desire can be eliminated. It’s impossible to eradicate evil nature. Since fetters brought by the constitution, the state, the law, society, the military, corporations, schools, families, and groups are not less than the eighteen levels of hell, the mortals repress themselves, bury their feelings. Day after day, greed, anger, stupidity, arrogance, doubt, and resentment are stacking. However, since the six dust (visible objects, sound, odor, taste, touch, and mental objects) has not yet been extinguished, people in the mundane world are still full of delusions. The demons, devils, evil spirits, and the wondering dead exist in the wilderness, while only advanced practitioners with transcendent would attempt to make contact with the dead in the wasteland and forest. Worldly people like us trespass in Disneyland-like man-made hell. It is absurd and ridiculous that the hellish scenes cannot stop us from perpetrating evil deeds, but the horrific and cruel scenes yet satisfy our self-righteous shame.
The pandemic has been boiling over for more than a year and a half. The number of infected patients worldwide is nearly a hundred and eighty million, and the death toll has risen to four million, which is equivalent to a war crisis. I hope that we can all be compassionate, give peace to the dead, treat all sentient beings well and equally. The hell is innately empty; however, deluded and misleading thoughts would give rise to all jealousy and hatred and then manifest the hell before us. This book merely serves as a memorandum of conscience for dictators of the world’s new cold war, supporters of unrestrained warfare, dark web hackers, and those who are cunning and contemptuous and maltreat others when knowing they have problems.
June 2021,
Yao Jui-chung
eight 無料版 在 文茜的世界周報 Sisy's World News Facebook 的最佳解答
1127紐約時報
*【川普至今仍要求勝利,稱如果選舉人選擇拜登,他會離開白宮】
川普總統表示,如果選舉學院正式宣布拜登當選總統,他將離開白宮,儘管他重申毫無根據的欺詐指控,他說這將使他“非常難以”承認。
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/26/us/politics/trump-election-georgia.html
*【最高法院以5比4支持宗教團體對古莫疫情禁令的質疑】
美國最高法院裁定,紐約州因疫情施加的宗教活動限制違憲。新任大法官巴雷特在五比四的投票結果中佔據決定性的一票。在她成為大法官前,最高法院曾允許加州和內華達州限制宗教活動的出席人數。紐約州長古莫指責高院這一最新裁決具有黨派色彩。
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/26/us/supreme-court-coronavirus-religion-new-york.html
*【川普聲稱,國防部人員暗中參與疫苗相關發配任務】
川普總統談到向數百萬美國人渴望疫苗出現,讓生活恢復正常,他透露這需要“指望軍方”來完成。川普說,軍隊會打包藥瓶,從工廠運到藥店,甚至可能會注射。那些致力於將疫苗劑量從製藥公司轉移到醫生辦公室的跨部門計畫,國防部參與進行。
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/26/us/politics/coronavirus-vaccine-military-trump.html
*【韓國創8個月來最大單日確診病例新高】
韓國通報了3月至今,單日最多新增病例,第三波疫情來勢洶洶。韓國週四報告了583例新冠病毒感染病例,是八個月以來的最高數字。該國衛生官員指出,新的感染激增始於本月,在全國範圍內通過小規模群體傳播,桑拿房、舞廳和軍事訓練營等地均出現了疫情。
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/26/world/south-korea-reports-its-biggest-one-day-jump-in-cases-in-eight-months.html
*【梅克爾宣佈德國將延長疫情限制至12月】
儘管已經實施了三周的封鎖,德國單日新增感染人數仍居高不下:過去一周,該國平均每天至少新增1.8萬宗新病例;其週二死亡人數達到創紀錄的410人。此外,梅克爾表示,醫護人員可能會在下月得到首批疫苗。
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/26/world/merkel-outlines-germanys-plan-to-extend-restrictions-through-december.html
*【韓國“N號房”策劃人一審被判40年監禁】
趙主彬(音)誘騙年輕女性攝製色情視頻,並通過加密聊天室在網上進行出售,檢方稱,他的罪行在本國“史無前例”,要求法庭判其終生監禁。女權宣導者指出,司法機構的溫和處罰正是導致該國性犯罪大規模增長的原因。
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/26/world/asia/south-korea-video-sexual-exploitation.html
*【美國人的感恩節】
#美國的冠毒病例已達到歷史最高水平,過去一周平均每天超過17.6萬例。死亡人數激增,週二和周三公佈的死亡人數超過2200人,是自5月初以來的最高每日總數。
#教宗方濟各在時報觀點版面撰文,稱“這場危機揭示了我們的內心”。方濟各指出,這場大流行使我們思考:要走出危機,我們需要感受到他人的痛苦。我們必須重新認識到,作為人類,我們有一個共同的目標。沒有人能單獨得到拯救。
#感恩節的傳統活動照舊,但梅西百貨的感恩節大遊行規模縮小。
#疫苗製造商阿斯特捷利康承認資料披露有誤。該公司此前曾宣稱,根據初步試驗結果,其以廉價和易於製造著稱的新冠疫苗有效性可達90%,但一些試驗參與者只注射了部分劑量的阿斯特捷利康疫苗,這為其真實療效畫上問號。與此同時,該公司的一系列不規範和疏忽也動搖了公眾的信心。
#達美航空宣布從亞特蘭大飛往羅馬的“無檢疫”航班。
#美國案件的數據將滯後,有14個州未在感恩節期間更新數字。
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/11/26/world/covid-19-coronavirus?_ga=2.18877756.522415457.1606358373-450868151.1527222781#the-pandemic-is-a-crisis-that-reveals-what-is-in-our-hearts-the-pope-says
*【馬拉度納:越混亂越美麗,越黑暗越光明】
馬拉度納和足球成就了彼此。對許多人而言,他是一種近乎宗教的體驗。他的缺點和心魔不會被遺忘,留下的記憶永遠是複雜的。但無論黑暗有多深,都無法遮蔽他帶來的光芒。
https://cn.nytimes.com/culture/20201126/diego-maradona/
eight 無料版 在 殞月DMoon Youtube 的最讚貼文
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》》請勿複製 過多 台規到聊天室造成洗頻《《
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2.如果遇到玩得很好或是耍蠢可以打666或87,但不要無意義的打
3.【聊天提到沒關係,另外如果是常一起玩的人(例如:團團、哈記、繁星等等)就算不再場有聊到也沒關係】
4.請勿在聊天室提到關於暴力色情相關發言,影響他人觀看
5.注意不可洗版喔!
6.連結部份請不要貼上喔!
雖然你可能認為那沒什麼,
但還是別引人誤會喔!
7.聊天室請注意說話用詞喔!
也切勿人身攻擊,特別是各位別互相吵架,謝謝!
8.請不要劇透喔!
劇透是會大量減少遊戲樂趣!
除非我已經走頭無路到卡關發出求救信號,
才給我"提示"不要直接告訴我答案!
9.請勿提供非正版相關訊息!
除非特別活動外否則也算違規喔!!!
10.請勿在聊天室各種推銷行為!!不論是頻道或商品!!!
11.每個人都有選擇頻道的權利!不要報告XXX開台我要來去看之類的!
12.出現為什麼XXX沒玩這類發言規勸就好,屢犯在Ban
【以上都已提醒就好,除非真的同一個人屢犯在Ban,真的遇到來亂或Ban人情況,不需要在特別回嘴,避免造成大家不敢留言】
--------電腦配備----------
處理器:I5-8400
顯示卡:GTX1070 Ti
記憶體:32G
麥克風:AT2020 USB+
作業程式:Windows 10
錄影程式:Action!
--------音樂來源----------
煉獄庭園--http://www.rengoku-teien.com/index.html
魔王魂-http://maoudamashii.jokersounds.com/
---------------------------------
哈囉!本人是殞月!!歡迎收看我的影片
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》》》訂閱本人的頻道,可讓您隨時獲得最新影片的消息《《《
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eight 無料版 在 殞月DMoon Youtube 的最佳解答
加入DC群連結,加入會員可調整額外身分組!
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訂閱殞月----------https://goo.gl/r8YrDU
FB專頁-------------https://goo.gl/PN59Ba
所有影片清單---https://goo.gl/NQUeH0
有能力也麻煩幫忙掛個TW台~https://www.twitch.tv/dmoon1903
綠界贊助(斗內),贊助以不影響日常生活為主,不要為了贊助造成生活上困擾
https://p.ecpay.com.tw/6B2DDC4
影片剪輯
--------補充資料---------
》》請勿複製 過多 台規到聊天室造成洗頻《《
**聊天室簡易規定**
0.本台卡頓斷線是常態,稍等一下就好了~請勿在卡頓斷線時刷表情符號或卡了等字。
1.請勿要求想當管理員
2.如果遇到玩得很好或是耍蠢可以打666或87,但不要無意義的打
3.【聊天提到沒關係,另外如果是常一起玩的人(例如:團團、哈記、繁星等等)就算不再場有聊到也沒關係】
4.請勿在聊天室提到關於暴力色情相關發言,影響他人觀看
5.注意不可洗版喔!
6.連結部份請不要貼上喔!
雖然你可能認為那沒什麼,
但還是別引人誤會喔!
7.聊天室請注意說話用詞喔!
也切勿人身攻擊,特別是各位別互相吵架,謝謝!
8.請不要劇透喔!
劇透是會大量減少遊戲樂趣!
除非我已經走頭無路到卡關發出求救信號,
才給我"提示"不要直接告訴我答案!
9.請勿提供非正版相關訊息!
除非特別活動外否則也算違規喔!!!
10.請勿在聊天室各種推銷行為!!不論是頻道或商品!!!
11.每個人都有選擇頻道的權利!不要報告XXX開台我要來去看之類的!
12.出現為什麼XXX沒玩這類發言規勸就好,屢犯在Ban
【以上都已提醒就好,除非真的同一個人屢犯在Ban,真的遇到來亂或Ban人情況,不需要在特別回嘴,避免造成大家不敢留言】
--------電腦配備----------
處理器:I5-8400
顯示卡:GTX1070 Ti
記憶體:32G
麥克風:AT2020 USB+
作業程式:Windows 10
錄影程式:Action!
--------音樂來源----------
煉獄庭園--http://www.rengoku-teien.com/index.html
魔王魂-http://maoudamashii.jokersounds.com/
---------------------------------
哈囉!本人是殞月!!歡迎收看我的影片
有任何的建議或疑問都可以在影片下方留言
或直接前往FB專頁私訊本人喔!
本人都會一一回覆各位的訊息!!
還有呢!!如果覺得本人的影片不錯的話記得
》》》訂閱本人的頻道,可讓您隨時獲得最新影片的消息《《《
》》》如果喜歡本人的影片,也請多多分享影片!!謝謝各位嚕《《《
eight 無料版 在 范琪斐 Youtube 的最佳貼文
歡迎收看范琪斐的寰宇漫遊,今天的琪斐大放送我們要來談談,2020美國總統大選民調一面倒的說拜登贏川普一大截,川貴人,這次別選了吧?乖~我待會給你買個....樓?大家好,我是范琪斐。中間偏右的《華爾街日報》(Wall Street Journal)聯手中間偏左的《國家廣播公司》(NBC),在「川拜」首場辯論後,到川普確診前這段時間,所做的民調顯示,拜登的支持率高達53%,足足領先川普14個百分點(53%:39%)。真的假的啦~這個幅度也太誇張,我們再參考一下別的。
(10/11公布)美國ABC News和《華盛頓郵報》(The Washington Post),在川普出院後做的最新民調,有54%的選民說會把票投給拜登,大幅領先川普12個百分點(54%:42%)。專門統計各家民調數據的Five Thirty Eight指出,拜登的平均支持率勝過川普10.4個百分點(52.2%:41.9%, 10/10數據)。另一個民調數據集合網站「真清晰政治」(Real Clear Politics)的網站顯示,從10月以來每一家主要民調公司統計出的結果,都是拜登遙遙領先川普,差距在5到16個百分點不等,其中不乏立場較為中間的The Hill和經濟學人。所以平均下來拜登的支持率領先9.8個百分點。(10/9公布)美國權威智庫與民調機構「皮尤研究中心」(Pew Research Center)做出來的結果是,52%的選民打算把票投給拜登,領先川普10個百分點(52%:42%)。
我們找了很多民調,可是只有很少數的說,川普領先拜登, 說很少數,是怕我們川貴人傷心,其實找來找去只有一個。 (10/5公布)英國《每日快報》聯手英美智庫Democracy Institute做的民調顯示,川普支持率在46%,小勝拜登1個百分點(46%:45%)。不過我還是註明一下,這個《每日快報》是英國的右翼八卦報,民主研究所的民調,也沒有被民調界公信力很高的538列入參考的近500家民調就是了, 所以現在大多數民調都顯示,拜登會獲得壓倒性勝利,但川貴人當然不認為他會選輸啊,最近又在那邊「Fake news」、「Fake polls」喊來喊去,民調統統都是假的!這都是幻覺~嚇不倒我的!
先不要笑,川貴人說的是真的,4年前一直到投票日當天早上,民調都還顯示希拉蕊一定會凍蒜,《紐約時報》做了大半年的民調,到選舉當天早上,還在說希拉蕊有80%以上的勝選機會,結果最後被「逆轉」,搖擺州統統被川貴人拿下!2016年的民調,被很多人認為是「壞掉了」、「走鐘了」,完全無法反映出真實民意,今年隨著大選日逼近,也有越來越多人開始質疑,真的假的啊?這幾年來專家們一直試圖釐清,當年的「希拉蕊慘案」到底是怎麼出現的,總之過去四年民調專家就很努力的要找出,民調為什麼會跟開出來的票差那麼多,但真的非常困難,因為變數實在太多了,我們今天就幫大家整理出幾個專家們認為可能的原因。
(一)手機的普及
還記得去年台灣不是在吵「手機民調要不要納入總統初選民調」嗎?美國其實也有類似的問題。美國現在就跟台灣「人手一機」一樣,有時候還兩三機,越來越少人使用家用電話了,而且年輕人、低收入者以及少數族群,都只用手機而已;反觀年長者和白人族群,就會比較依賴室內電話。大數據分析網站《Datanami》就指出,25歲左右的年輕人看到不認識的電話,幾乎都會pass不接;但70歲的長輩們則是每通必接,因此這樣進行的電話民調就很容易往某一族群傾斜。
那用手機民調不行嗎?根據1991年的《電話消費者保護法》(Telephone Consumer Protection Act of 1991;TCPA),美國是禁止「自動撥號系統」打電話給手機用戶的,所以如果要打手機做民調,就必須派出「真人」撥號,這有多麻煩呢?數據顯示,你想獲得1,000個回答,就至少得隨機撥號2萬次,其中大部分是空號,因為手機號碼是私人的,根本不會刊登在電話簿上,這實在太勞民傷財了,很想幫做民調的人馬殺雞一下耶,你們辛苦了。
(二)沉默的多數
每次選舉我都很期待接到民調電話,但大多數美國人可不是這麼想的,可能是因為擔憂個資和隱私外洩,導致選民接電話不敢說出真實意見,或者是覺得,蛤~民調很久欸,老娘才沒空理你。1970年代左右,美國「民調回應率」(Polls response rate)高達80%,你只要打過去人家多半都會回答你,但是根據「皮尤研究中心」最新報告,2018年美國「民調回應率」已經暴跌到6%,等於你打100通電話就只有6個人不掛你電話、願意花時間跟你聊兩句,但你也不知道他是不是講真話。
像2016年的大選,支持川普的選民中,就有一群選前不願意表態的,或者在接受民調時故意說謊的,有些甚至不告訴鄰居他們其實支持川普。《Datanami》表示,這些選民會讓調查的結果失準2%到6%,6%很多欸,根本就是超出誤差範圍了。
(三)網路民調難
啊現在網路那麼發達,用網路做民調不就統統搞定了嗎?事實上恐怕剛好相反。數據顯示美國18-29歲的年輕人,有98%都使用網路,但偏偏這個年齡層的人最不愛投票,拿美國總統大選風向球:2018年美國期中選舉為例,雖然這群年輕人投票率比前一次大幅提高15.7個百分點,但仍是所有年齡層中最低的(35.6%),也就是說,每個人都是「鍵盤投手」,大家網路上搖旗吶喊超熱情,結果投票日當天大家都覺得不差我這一票。另一方面,你在網路上想填幾歲就幾歲,想變性就變性,別國網軍想來帶風向,也不是那麼困難,因此網路民調也非常容易失準。
(四)早期民調誇大
另一個大變數是「早期民調」的準確度很低,因為選民還沒有足夠時間去瞭解候選人到底在幹嘛,但早期民調卻是媒體報導所仰賴的主要資訊來源,結果就是候選人拿來造勢、媒體見獵心喜誇大報導,進而影響到後續選民對候選人表示支持的聲量。例如看到拜登領先,那支持拜登的人講話就會比較大聲,因為他們是「主流」,反之支持川普的人,可能就會比較不敢表達意見,形成「沉默螺旋」。
「皮尤研究中心」也加碼解釋,事實上2016年的全國民調還算準確,(預測希贏3.3%最後贏2.1%),但美國總統大選是以選舉人票為單位,希拉蕊全國總票數高於川普也沒屁用,最後川普拿下所有的搖擺州,入主白宮。而選前的州民調也無法反映出搖擺州的真實民意,地方往往沒有全國性民調那種資源,四年前他們就忽略了在最後關頭,投給川普的搖擺選民數量,也沒有準確掌握未受過大學教育的白人選民,他們到底支持誰,種種因素導致了中西部上演「大驚奇」。還有就是民調公司往往有特定的政黨傾向,最後很可能導向「護主」的結果,讓民調不盡然客觀。
那這些問題2020年還會再重演嗎?老實說,有些變數還是很難避免,《紐約時報》就整理了,和四年前相比,哪些因素可能讓美國民調更精準或更失準。
更精準的第一點就是,搖擺選民減少了。
四年前民調失準的一大因素就是搖擺選民,但今年跟民調人員說:嗯~我還沒想好,的搖擺選民數量變少了,四年前的這個時候,大概還有20%的選民說他們還沒決定要投誰,或是打算投給小黨候選人,但今年這群人的數量只剩一半,而且其中支持川普的人也老早就表態,尤其是搖擺州的白人工人階級選民。
更精準的第二點是,選民教育程度的加權。
大家要有個概念,民調準不準確,完全取決於你抽樣有沒有做到「隨機」,也就是每個族群的意見都要被採納進來,但這真的非常難做到,最後很容易讓民調結果出現偏差。例如在美國,如果你跑去郊區教堂裡做民調,那幾乎可以篤定會獲得一個偏共和黨的結果;但如果你對大學生進行抽樣,最後很可能獲得一個偏民主黨的結果。另外的數據又顯示,受過高等教育的選民,比較願意接受民調訪問,每個都是選我選我~而那些較保守、教育程度較低的選民,他們的聲音就很難反映在民調上,所以如果你沒有按照「教育程度」來做加權,民調就會充斥太多年輕大學生的意見,導致結果偏向民主黨。先前民調機構都不怎麼重視教育程度對選情的影響,結果導致2016「爆冷門」。
有鑑於4年前的「教訓」,今年有越來越多民調機構,把選民教育程度的權重提高了,簡單來說就是把教育程度較高的受訪者音量降低一點,把教育程度較低的受訪者音量調高一點,讓他們各自符合在總人口中所佔的比例。今年從3月以來,美國各家民調機構做的幾十個調查中,已經有半數增加教育程度的權重,是先前的兩倍多(約20%)。
可能比2016年更糟糕的是,網路民調的增加。我們剛剛已經提過網路民調的準確度有待商榷,但過去幾個月來,越來越多機構採用網路民調的方式,比例佔地方民調總數的一半。他們採用的方法可能太過簡單,就是直接抓一群網路群組成員,然後再根據受訪者的人口統計資料進行分類加權,這樣的作法成本很低又很方便,但非常容易有樣本代表性不足的結果,而且最後民調可能左傾。 (最好的方式是結合電話民調和網路民調,例如AP/NORC/VoteCast的民調,電訪4萬人外加隨機抽樣11萬網友,結果可能較為客觀。
另一個可能不太客觀的做法是:請選民「回想投票」。
目前有越來越多投票機構採取這個方式,也就是要求受訪者回想2016年他把票投給誰,是希拉蕊還是川普呢?然後再依據他們的回答去做選舉意向的加權。這樣做可以讓民調數字看起來比較漂亮,也可以減少錯誤,但卻很難避免系統偏差,導致結果傾向某一政黨。再加上通常大家都會傾向回答,自己是投給獲勝的那一方,沒有人會想承認自己投給輸家嘛!再說這四年來誕生不少首投族,又有不少人往生,像是疫情導致那麼多人死亡,也有很多人搬到別的地方去,硬把2016年的投票意向套用到今年,恐怕不太合適。
所以這個民調到底是能不能看啊?你要是問我,我覺得就別看了 ,這是我們媒體想要預測選舉的結果, 或研究單位拿來做選民行為分析. 但一般選民還是把政策看清楚點比較要緊,你管別人怎麼投
今天琪斐大放送的關鍵字是:
#美民調失準
#選情霧茫茫
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