I have recently perused Nicholas Kristof’s NYT piece “China’s Man in Washington, Named Trump”(https://nyti.ms/3h2JXh8). One paragraph in particular caught my attention: “A joke in China suggests that Trump’s Chinese name is Chuan Jianguo, or “Build-the-Country Trump.” That’s because Build-the-Country is a common revolutionary name among Communist patriots, and it’s mockingly suggested that Trump’s misrule of the United States is actually bolstering Xi’s regime.”
Kristoff also avows that since Trump’s ascension to presidency, the American nation became highly polarized. This is reflected in the current administration’s policies on climate change, foreign relations with established U.S. allies, and COVID-19 prevention, all of which are rather ineffective. It also seems like Mr. Trump and his team diverged from the traditional priorities, including promoting free trade, human rights, and other quintessentially American values. As described thoroughly by John Bolton, all these factors contributed to the declining standing of the U.S. in global politics.
What is more, many people fall prey to CCP’s propaganda and its interpretations of Trump’s actions, which only enhances China’s reputation.
But that might not exactly be the case.
The CCP apparently failed to utilize the window of opportunity created by the ineptness of the Trump administration, as China could have grown to the position of a leader by filling in the void left by the U.S.
During the 2016 APEC Ministerial Meeting in Lima, Peru, Xi Jinping and his team actively supported the plans to establish the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and a Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific, or FTAAP. In contrast, the United States withdrew its signature from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in early 2017. Coupled with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the establishment of the Asian Infrastructure and Investment Bank (AIIB), this move bolstered China’s capacity to influence global investments and trade, high-tech mergers and acquisitions, and, overall, expand its geostrategic influence on the entire globe.
At the same time, various propaganda films about great power competition, military industry, and science and technology surged all at once, and gained remarkable following around the world.
All this provided a window of opportunity for the CCP to slowly change its course. Around the same time, the distrust for POTUS among U.S. allies’ reached its apex. According to polls conducted by the Pew Research Center, the distrust for the U.S. president in the U.K. reached 75%, 72% in Japan, 70% in Australia, and stunning 86% in France.
Had the C.C.P,. begun to open up at that time, or at least resumed the governance style of the Hu-Wen administration, it could have reaped the benefits of promoting liberalism where the U.S. failed to deliver. It was the time for Beijing to gradually enhance freedom of speech domestically, pursue sustainable infrastructural projects, gradually reform unfair barriers to trade, transform its S.O.E.s, strengthen protections for private ownership, and vitalize its start-ups and enterprises.
Moreover, were China to cease the genocide in East Turkestan and refrain from cracking down on Hong Kong's semi-autonomy, it would have greatly enhanced its global international image. Additionally, if paired with slow but steady reforms, Beijing’s respect for sovereignty of its peoples would have attracted a large amount of foreign investment, which in turn would have continued to buttress the country’s growth.
It is China prerogative to remain idle.
It might still be possible for Chinese “Dream” to come true.
Yet, a historic window of opportunity is now closed.
Xi assumed the tools of proscribing and stalling, which are completely antithetical to the aforementioned window of opportunity.
Today, China is more authoritarian, less flexible, and fully deprived of horizontal accountability. Its reliance on wolf warrior diplomacy backfired: for example, the Swedish parliament sought to expel the Chinese ambassador to Stockholm. Also, Prague, the capital of Czechia, terminated its sister-city agreement with Shanghai and instead signed a new one with Taipei. Last but not least, we ought not to forget about the recent fiasco in the relations with the United States who ordered the shutdown of China’s consulate in Houston. All of this took its toll on China’s reputation.
Its international standing and inability to replace the U.S. as the major global power are not the only issues China is currently facing.
As it experiences multiple domestic and international shocks, China struggles to combat the COVID-19 pandemic and tame the disastrous floods of Yangtze River. The swarm of locusts of biblical proportions is also crippling Beijing’s institutional capacity and may soon lead to food shortages. In fact, the precarity of food supply further diminishes the level of trust for Chinese authorities.
In 2019, the Pew Research Center conducted a public opinion survey to examine the international views of China. In the U.S., Argentina, the U.K., Canada, Germany, and Ukraine, only about 30% of respondents claim a favorable view of China.
As the COVID-19 pandemic rages in the U.S., as many as 73% of U.S. respondents view China unfavorably.
Recently, the C.C.P. is losing its focus by continuously shifting targets. In fact, I believe there is no need for the C.C.P.to rely on nationalistic appeals, since in this new century values, business relations, and fair competition are all far more important than greater than delusive blood ties.
China lies only 130 kilometers away from us. Of course, we welcome dialogue and seek to avoid misjudgments. But we also distinguish between the C.C.P. and China. While we do welcome dialogue, but we will not be coerced to talk under unjust preconditions or in fear.
The only fair prerequisites are those of reciprocity, mutual respect as well as fairness and openness with respect for the rule of law.
Source: Pew Research Center
最近看到紐約時報中文版的一篇文章
<美國的川普,中國的「川建國」>,其中一小段是這樣的
「在中國,人們戲稱川普的中文名字是川建國。那是因為建國是共產黨愛國者中一個普遍的革命人名。它在諷刺地暗示川普對美國的治理不當實際上是在鞏固習近平的政權。」
裡面也提到,川普在任的幾年,國家更分裂,對於氣候變遷,傳統美國盟友,乃至於疫情處理等都相當拙劣,對於美國傳統的自由貿易、人權等價值也基本上都沒有太大興趣。這些方針,導致美國在世界的評價降低,波頓的新書也多有描述。
除此之外,許多不幸相信中共宣傳,又或者是中共圈養的小粉紅,特別故意愛宣傳川普增強中國的威望。
但這不是真的。
中共完全沒有掌握美國做得不夠好的地方,去增強其在世界的領導力。
在2016年時,秘魯的亞太峰會舉行期間,習近平政權爭取(RCEP)及亞太自由貿易區(FTAAP)談判;對比2017年初,美國剛宣布退出TPP,加上中國到「一帶一路」和亞洲基礎設施投資銀行,中國當時在世界全面發揮投資貿易、高科技併購還有其地緣戰略的影響力。
也是那個時候,各種的大國崛起、大國軍工、大國科技的宣傳影片此起彼落,似乎正準備要在世界舞台發光發熱。
這曾經是中共慢慢轉向的一個機會之窗。彼時(2017)美國盟友對美國總統的不信任度達到歷史新高,根據皮尤研究中心的資訊,英國對於美國總統的不信任度達到75%、日本72% 澳洲70% 法國更高達86%
如果那時中共開始有限度的改革,對內放寬言論自由,或者至少維持在胡溫當時的水中,對外追求有責任的基礎建設,逐步緩慢減低不公平的貿易壁壘,對於國有企業改革,增強私營企業、新創企業的活力。
停止對新疆迫害,不干預香港自治,不僅國際形象會大幅改善,哪怕是緩慢但是穩健的改革,也會讓大量吸引外資,讓中國的活力持續前進。
哪怕是什麼都不做也好
那或許有這麽一點可能性,中國「夢」是可以前行的
但是歷史機緣的大門已經關上。
習、禁、停、放棄了這個機會之窗,徹底的走向相反的方向。
更專制、更沒有彈性,更沒有任何制衡的力量。各種戰狼外交,讓瑞典議員提案驅逐中國大使,捷克布拉格市長與台北簽訂姊妹是,就解散上海與該市關係、被美國關閉領事館、各種讓中國形象低下的事情,中共都沒有少做。
中共不但完全沒有辦法取代美國,在多重國內外的衝擊之下,又是瘟疫,又是超大水患,緊接著蝗害,還有進來的糧食不足問題,正在面臨巨大的瓶頸。
而糧食的命脈,卻恰恰又在對他最不信任,對中共價值最反對的國家聯盟
根據皮尤研究中心:Pew Research Center2019調查各國對中國的喜好度,美國、阿根廷、英國、加拿大、德國、烏克蘭等,對於中國的喜好度都在30%上下
而2020疫情後美國對於中國的不信任度,更高達73%。
最近中共在演習,又要玩轉移目標的手段,對於中共,其實不必再有民族主義的同情,因為新的世紀,價值、商業模式、公平競爭的制度大於血緣幻想。
中國離我們只有130公里的距離,我們當然歡迎對話,避免誤判。但我們同時也區分中共與中國,歡迎對話,但不在前提、條件、恐懼之下對話。
如果真的要有前提,那就是對等、尊重,還有公平公開法治的方式會晤。
資料來源:皮尤研究中心:Pew Research Center
(美國著名的民調機構和智庫機構,https://www.pewresearch.org/)
同時也有10000部Youtube影片,追蹤數超過2,910的網紅コバにゃんチャンネル,也在其Youtube影片中提到,...
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捷克參議院議長柯佳洛去世前收到的威脅信 中英文翻譯
Prague, 10th January 2020
2020年1月10日,布拉格
►The Taiwan issue is highly sensitive. The One-China Policy serves as the political basis for China in order to preserve and develop friendly relations and cooperate with all countries in the world, including the Czech Republic.
台灣問題高度敏感。一中政策是中國與全球包括捷克共和國在內的所有國家維護和發展友好關係並合作的政治基礎。
►The Chinese government resolutely opposes any official contact between any country that maintains diplomatic relations with China and Taiwan (including any mutual visits between parliamentary representatives and deputies).
中國政府堅決反對中國之所有邦交國與台灣間有任何官方往來(包括議會代表與議員之間的任何互訪)。
►Top representatives of Western countries, including the USA, the United Kingdom, France and Germany, abide by the One-China Policy, and none of them has visited Taiwan (Jacques Brotchi, the then Chairman of the Belgian Senate, who visited Taiwan in May 2019, has already resigned from his office and received a lifetime ban from entering China).
西方國家(包括美國,英國,法國和德國)的最高代表都遵從一中政策,且沒有一個人訪問過台灣(當時的比利時聯邦參議院議長 Jacques Brotchi 曾於 2019年5月訪問台灣,其現已辭職,並令終身禁止進入中國)。
►The joint declaration on the establishment of the strategic partnership between the People’s Republic of China and the Czech Republic states that “the Czech Republic has again confirmed its observance of the One-China Policy, as well as its respect towards the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the People’s Republic of China”.
在中華人民共和國與捷克共和國建立戰略夥伴關係的聯合聲明中寫道:“捷克共和國再次確認其遵守一個中國政策,並尊重中華人民共和國領土與主權的完整”。
►Whatever its form and purpose, a visit to Taiwan by Jaroslav Kubera, the Chairman of the Senate of the Parliament of the Czech Republic and as such the second highest representative of the Czech Republic, bears the marks of an official visit. That would constitute a grave violation of the recognition of the One-China principle.
捷克共和國國會參議院議長 Jaroslav Kubera 作為捷克共和國第二層級的最高政治代表,若訪問台灣,無論其形式及目的為何,此舉都將被視為是官方正式的外交出訪,具有不可逆的政治意義。此舉將嚴重違反對於 “一中原則” 的承認。 **(bears the marks of 留下印記這裡我試試看有別於字面上的翻法!不知道有沒有更好地翻法?)**
►The Chinese-Czech strategic partnership has been continuously developing over the last few years, thus bringing tangible benefits to Czech enterprises. China has already become the largest foreign market for many Czech companies, such as Škoda Auto, Home Credit Group, Klavíry Petrof and others.
近年來,中捷戰略夥伴關係不斷發展,為捷克企業帶來了實質的利益。對於許多捷克公司(例如 汽車製造商 Škoda Auto,捷信集團 Home Credit Group,佩卓夫鋼琴 Klavíry Petrof 等),中國已經成為最大的國外市場。
►A potential visit to Taiwan by Chairman Kubera would seriously hurt the feelings of the Chinese people, damage the friendly atmosphere of cooperation between China and the Czech Republic, the Czech Republic’s reputation among the Chinese public and the interests of the Czech Republic.
Kubera 議長可能對台灣進行的訪問將嚴重損害中國人民的感情,損害中國與捷克共和國之間的友好合作氣氛、捷克共和國在中國公眾中的聲譽以及捷克共和國的利益。
►Czech enterprises whose representatives visit Taiwan with Chairman Kubera will not be welcome in China or by the Chinese people. Czech enterprises with economic interests in China will have to pay for Chairman Kubera’s visit to Taiwan.
與 Kubera 議長一起訪問台灣的捷克企業代表,將不被中國與中國人民歡迎。在中國具有經濟利益的捷克企業將為 Kubera 議長對台灣的訪問付出代價。
►Chairman Kubera’s visit to Taiwan will not benefit anyone. We hope that the Czech side will observe the One-China policy and cancel this visit, thus avoiding damaging Chinese-Czech relations.
Kubera 議長對台灣的訪問將不會使任何人受益。我們希望捷克方面遵守一中政策並取消此次訪問,以免破壞中捷關係。
►Attn.: Office of the President of the Czech Republic
收信者:捷克共和國總統辦公室
►Prague
布拉格
►[Seal of the Office of the President in Czech Republic confirming receipt on 13th January 2020]
[捷克共和國總統辦公室印章,確認於2020年1月13日收到]
►[Seal of the Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in the Czech Republic]
[中華人民共和國駐捷克共和國大使館印章]
══════════════════════
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https://sinopsis.cz/en/embassy-threats/… (★ 接下來有這個星號的都是這個連結裡的內容)
一直找不到全信的中文內容,有點煩躁,所以我在上面那個網址找到了這封捷克語威脅信的全文英文翻譯,然後就自己努力地翻成中文了(本人非外交或外文專業,翻譯內容可能有誤,請多指教😓),如果大家需要的話可以直接轉發。
★ 連結中寫道:“The threatening letter eschews diplomatic protocol; it is written as a series of “bullet points”, lacking even a salutation. It appears to have been translated by a non-native speaker, from a Chinese original into nearly flawless Czech.”
此封威脅信不以外交禮儀寫成;而是使用條列式列出了一系列要點,信中甚至沒有收信人的稱呼(一般書信在開頭會有 Dear xx)。它似乎是由非母語人士翻譯而成的,從原本的中文翻譯成了近乎完美的捷克語。
★ “In 2019, the chairman of the Czech Senate, Jaroslav Kubera, announced a trip to Taiwan as head of a business delegation. Various voices in local politics criticised these plans out loud, most notably the country’s CCP-friendly president Miloš Zeman, who said Kubera’s Taiwan visit would mean the end of their friendship. The PRC’s direct attempt to prevent the visit was not, however, made through public channels.”
2019年,捷克參議院主席 Jaroslav Kubera 宣布作為商務代表團團長前往台灣。地方政治上出現了各種聲音大聲批評了此計劃,最值得注意的是捷克的親中總統 Miloš Zeman,他表示,柯佳洛議長對台灣的訪問將意味著中捷兩國友誼的終結。然而,中國嘗試阻止訪問的直接方法並不是透過公開透明的管道。
★ 據捷克媒體 Aktuálně 於2/19的報導(source: https://zpravy.aktualne.cz/…/r~3602b9ba51a711eaa5e40cc47ab…/)
重點節錄:這封信經過了捷克總統府,並隨信附有捷克總統府對外辦公室主任 *Rudolf Jindrák* 的評論,最後轉交給了柯佳洛。信件發出後的第七天,柯佳洛去世了,這封信在他的辦公室裡被發現。
*(💥 查資料的過程中不小心翻到這位 Rudolf Jindrák 似乎有過共產黨背景...... https://taiwantrc.org/捷克駐德大使被指曾是共黨軍情系統同路人/ 這篇是2010年的...不確定現在的情形,但我google到的時候真的有覺得不太對勁...)
(然後請大家不要曲解意思,我沒有說是這封信害死了柯佳洛,只寫了這是他去世之前收到的威脅信,這裡的威脅指的是對於捷克外交和經濟上的。)
文章來源:柳子賢
establishment中文 在 公民聯盟 Facebook 的精選貼文
▌捷克參議院議長柯佳洛去世前收到的威脅信 中英文翻譯 ▌
Prague, 10th January 2020
2020年1月10日,布拉格
►The Taiwan issue is highly sensitive. The One-China Policy serves as the political basis for China in order to preserve and develop friendly relations and cooperate with all countries in the world, including the Czech Republic.
台灣問題高度敏感。一中政策是中國與全球包括捷克共和國在內的所有國家維護和發展友好關係並合作的政治基礎。
►The Chinese government resolutely opposes any official contact between any country that maintains diplomatic relations with China and Taiwan (including any mutual visits between parliamentary representatives and deputies).
中國政府堅決反對中國之所有邦交國與台灣間有任何官方往來(包括議會代表與議員之間的任何互訪)。
►Top representatives of Western countries, including the USA, the United Kingdom, France and Germany, abide by the One-China Policy, and none of them has visited Taiwan (Jacques Brotchi, the then Chairman of the Belgian Senate, who visited Taiwan in May 2019, has already resigned from his office and received a lifetime ban from entering China).
西方國家(包括美國,英國,法國和德國)的最高代表都遵從一中政策,且沒有一個人訪問過台灣(當時的比利時聯邦參議院議長 Jacques Brotchi 曾於 2019年5月訪問台灣,其現已辭職,並令終身禁止進入中國)。
►The joint declaration on the establishment of the strategic partnership between the People’s Republic of China and the Czech Republic states that “the Czech Republic has again confirmed its observance of the One-China Policy, as well as its respect towards the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the People’s Republic of China”.
在中華人民共和國與捷克共和國建立戰略夥伴關係的聯合聲明中寫道:“捷克共和國再次確認其遵守一個中國政策,並尊重中華人民共和國領土與主權的完整”。
►Whatever its form and purpose, a visit to Taiwan by Jaroslav Kubera, the Chairman of the Senate of the Parliament of the Czech Republic and as such the second highest representative of the Czech Republic, bears the marks of an official visit. That would constitute a grave violation of the recognition of the One-China principle.
捷克共和國國會參議院議長 Jaroslav Kubera 作為捷克共和國第二層級的最高政治代表,若訪問台灣,無論其形式及目的為何,此舉都將被視為是官方正式的外交出訪,具有不可逆的政治意義。此舉將嚴重違反對於 “一中原則” 的承認。 **(bears the marks of 留下印記這裡我試試看有別於字面上的翻法!不知道有沒有更好地翻法?)**
►The Chinese-Czech strategic partnership has been continuously developing over the last few years, thus bringing tangible benefits to Czech enterprises. China has already become the largest foreign market for many Czech companies, such as Škoda Auto, Home Credit Group, Klavíry Petrof and others.
近年來,中捷戰略夥伴關係不斷發展,為捷克企業帶來了實質的利益。對於許多捷克公司(例如 汽車製造商 Škoda Auto,捷信集團 Home Credit Group,佩卓夫鋼琴 Klavíry Petrof 等),中國已經成為最大的國外市場。
►A potential visit to Taiwan by Chairman Kubera would seriously hurt the feelings of the Chinese people, damage the friendly atmosphere of cooperation between China and the Czech Republic, the Czech Republic’s reputation among the Chinese public and the interests of the Czech Republic.
Kubera 議長可能對台灣進行的訪問將嚴重損害中國人民的感情,損害中國與捷克共和國之間的友好合作氣氛、捷克共和國在中國公眾中的聲譽以及捷克共和國的利益。
►Czech enterprises whose representatives visit Taiwan with Chairman Kubera will not be welcome in China or by the Chinese people. Czech enterprises with economic interests in China will have to pay for Chairman Kubera’s visit to Taiwan.
與 Kubera 議長一起訪問台灣的捷克企業代表,將不被中國與中國人民歡迎。在中國具有經濟利益的捷克企業將為 Kubera 議長對台灣的訪問付出代價。
►Chairman Kubera’s visit to Taiwan will not benefit anyone. We hope that the Czech side will observe the One-China policy and cancel this visit, thus avoiding damaging Chinese-Czech relations.
Kubera 議長對台灣的訪問將不會使任何人受益。我們希望捷克方面遵守一中政策並取消此次訪問,以免破壞中捷關係。
►Attn.: Office of the President of the Czech Republic
收信者:捷克共和國總統辦公室
►Prague
布拉格
►[Seal of the Office of the President in Czech Republic confirming receipt on 13th January 2020]
[捷克共和國總統辦公室印章,確認於2020年1月13日收到]
►[Seal of the Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in the Czech Republic]
[中華人民共和國駐捷克共和國大使館印章]
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https://sinopsis.cz/en/embassy-threats/… (★ 接下來有這個星號的都是這個連結裡的內容)
一直找不到全信的中文內容,有點煩躁,所以我在上面那個網址找到了這封捷克語威脅信的全文英文翻譯,然後就自己努力地翻成中文了(本人非外交或外文專業,翻譯內容可能有誤,請多指教😓),如果大家需要的話可以直接轉發。
★ 連結中寫道:“The threatening letter eschews diplomatic protocol; it is written as a series of “bullet points”, lacking even a salutation. It appears to have been translated by a non-native speaker, from a Chinese original into nearly flawless Czech.”
此封威脅信不以外交禮儀寫成;而是使用條列式列出了一系列要點,信中甚至沒有收信人的稱呼(一般書信在開頭會有 Dear xx)。它似乎是由非母語人士翻譯而成的,從原本的中文翻譯成了近乎完美的捷克語。
★ “In 2019, the chairman of the Czech Senate, Jaroslav Kubera, announced a trip to Taiwan as head of a business delegation. Various voices in local politics criticised these plans out loud, most notably the country’s CCP-friendly president Miloš Zeman, who said Kubera’s Taiwan visit would mean the end of their friendship. The PRC’s direct attempt to prevent the visit was not, however, made through public channels.”
2019年,捷克參議院主席 Jaroslav Kubera 宣布作為商務代表團團長前往台灣。地方政治上出現了各種聲音大聲批評了此計劃,最值得注意的是捷克的親中總統 Miloš Zeman,他表示,柯佳洛議長對台灣的訪問將意味著中捷兩國友誼的終結。然而,中國嘗試阻止訪問的直接方法並不是透過公開透明的管道。
★ 據捷克媒體 Aktuálně 於2/19的報導(source: https://zpravy.aktualne.cz/…/r~3602b9ba51a711eaa5e40cc47ab…/)
重點節錄:這封信經過了捷克總統府,並隨信附有捷克總統府對外辦公室主任 *Rudolf Jindrák* 的評論,最後轉交給了柯佳洛。信件發出後的第七天,柯佳洛去世了,這封信在他的辦公室裡被發現。
*(💥 查資料的過程中不小心翻到這位 Rudolf Jindrák 似乎有過共產黨背景...... https://taiwantrc.org/捷克駐德大使被指曾是共黨軍情系統同路人/ 這篇是2010年的...不確定現在的情形,但我google到的時候真的有覺得不太對勁...)
(然後請大家不要曲解意思,我沒有說是這封信害死了柯佳洛,只寫了這是他去世之前收到的威脅信,這裡的威脅指的是對於捷克外交和經濟上的。)
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