🌻
美國聯準會(Fed)在美東時間22日下午2時(台灣23日凌晨2時)宣布利率維持在趨近零的水準,但暗示升息可能會比預期來得快一些,同時也大幅下修今年的經濟展望。
https://udn.com/news/story/6811/5764746
🌻Adobe(ADBE)電話會議內容讀後感
ADBE前兩天發表財報了.
這次ADBE在財報後下跌, 主要是兩個原因(如下). 不過個人覺得是瑕不掩瑜:
1. 因為之前已經漲了不少(投資人期望太高)
2. 因為Digital Marketing這部分的業務受到季節性的影響, 所以表現不是很突出(沒有比預期高出很多)
a. net new Digital Media ARR (3% beat vs guide, vs 15% beat in 2Q21 vs 35% beat in 3Q20).
b. 有分析師在問(“Maybe just -- can we double-click on the seasonality commentary in the quarter? Because if we look at the beat versus guidance on net new digital media ARR, it looks, at the same time you had the weakest beat, but then the strongest guide in the last three years, which kind of speaks to and confirm some of those seasonality comments that you made.)
i. 高層對此的回答是, 主要是疫情後, 加上正值夏季, 大家的日子回復到正常&放假外出, 所以這部分的業務有受到影響(I think going into the quarter, we had expected that the consumer with a little bit more return to normalcy as what's happening in the environment.)
ii. 高層又說了一些話, 不過重點就是他不認為這是甚麼大事”So, net-net, I would say that the growth prospects for that particular business and the growth drivers remain intact. But again, very much in line. And this is what we feel good about the insights that we're getting on the business.”
iii. 也提到, Q4通常會是digital marketing業務的旺季(表現會不俗的意思)
另外, 覺得這次令我印象深刻的是, 當高層與分析師提到這些事情:
• 常在一些公司的電話會議中提到omnichannel這個字(疫情後, 更明顯了). 這次高層也有提到. ADBE可說是omnichannel概念股:
o “I mean, a big part of that is more and more companies are thirdly doing the multi-channel omnichannel, whatever they want to call it. And I think that's only going to continue to be a driver of our Digital Experience Solutions. Because today that stable stakes and so we just look at it and say whether you're shopping in-store over they are shopping online. You need a solution that treats you like a customer that we know of.”
• 網路上影片(video)的興起, 以及串流影音, 有提高了Adobe的營收天花板(用句分析師的術語, 就是TAM (total addressable market) expansion.
• 當使用者製作了越來越多的內容, 內容管理(content management)的能力就越顯重要, 內容上的流程管理(workflow)也越顯重要. Adobe的產品能夠幫內容製作者解決這樣的問題.
• 而Adobe各產品間的相容性, 標準化, 整合能力, 是它的競爭優勢之一:
o And one of the things we did really well is what we called our named user deployment and how, you know, when we have these enterprise licensing agreements, we offer enterprises the ability to download and distribute within the companies. And the more we do training and evangelism of the products, that leads to adoption. So, I would say there's an element of standardization, there's an element of more content.
而最近ADBE有個新聞, 引起了我的注意, 就是它即將在自己的平台上, 提供付款服務(payment service). 根據之前研究SHOP的經驗, 這有可能會對股價造成一定的漲幅:
On Sept. 15, Adobe announced that it will add payment services to its e-commerce platform this year to help merchants accept credit cards and other ways of paying. The move will deepen Adobe's rivalry with e-commerce firm Shopify (SHOP).
For the service, Adobe has partnered with PayPal (PYPL), which will process a variety of payment types, including credit and debit cards as well as PayPal's own payment and buy-now-pay-later offerings.
https://www.investors.com/news/technology/adbe-stock-adobe-beats-fiscal-q3-targets/
接下來該怎麼辦? 對於基本面良好的公司如ADBE, 我能說的就是buy the dip(逢低買進)了. 供參.
🌻The Facebook Files
一個星期前, WSJ上面有個關於FB的大篇幅調查報導. 有興趣的可以看看.
The Facebook Files
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-facebook-files-11631713039
這篇文章挺長, 也沒有看到華爾街中文版本的完整翻譯, 不過可以看看這篇:
https://on.wsj.com/2ZmFimp
"《華爾街日報》的相關調查顯示,這家社交媒體巨頭心知肚明,其平台會傷害用戶,而且是以該公司常常完全了解的方式造成傷害。目前,全球近半數人口都是Facebook旗下平台的用戶。其中一些證據尤其令人不安:據《華爾街日報》報導,Facebook的內部研究顯示,在報告稱有過自殺念頭的青少年中當中,有13%的英國用戶和6%的美國用戶把這種念頭歸結於Instagram。"
另一篇相關新聞:
https://www.thenewslens.com/article/156683
"《華爾街日報》於13日揭露Facebook的XCheck系統,也就是內部系統中的VIP名單,數百萬名人、政治人物與記者等知名公眾人物都在特別的一份「白名單」之內。"
"這些「貴賓」在社群上發布的內容可以躲過一般的審查系統,即使發布明顯的不當內容,也不會立即被刪除。《衛報》報導,Facebook的獨立監督委員會表示,在閱讀該篇報導後,決定要審查XCheck系統,並要求Facebook對其進行報告與解釋。"
🌻我喜歡的Apple TV影集, "Ted Lasso", 是這次艾美獎的大贏家, 很多主要演員都得獎了.
很高興這兩年, 因為有這部戲的陪伴, 讓我撐過了疫情, 家人離世, 以及一些烏煙瘴氣的事情.
前幾天看演員的得獎影片, 一位娛樂記者問得獎的男配角(也是編劇之一)說, 你覺得這部片的核心思想是甚麼. 他說, be curious, not judgemental.
就像得獎的女演員在劇中一開始是很鴨霸很壞心的球隊主人, 但這樣做是因為被前夫傷透了心, 所以想要弄垮離婚後分到的財產(也是前夫的最愛--球隊); 外表看起來永遠陽光燦爛做啦啦隊的男主角, 在青少年時父親自殺, 造成了他心裡永遠的痛&障礙(讓他在球賽時, 會有突發恐懼症).
我們每個人其實都有很多面, 很多個故事. 尤其在社群, 大家都是萍水相逢, 對彼此的了解都是非常片面的; 而有時候在社群裡, 看到有人會因為只看到一個面向, 就去下斷語. 這其實是人之常情很難避免, 所以我們需要常用第二層思考去提醒自己. 社群裡需要更多的同理心.
“Be curious, not judgmental” – Walt Whitman(惠特曼)(美國詩人)
Picture來源:
https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2021/09/apples-global-hit-comedy-series-ted-lasso-sweeps-the-2021-primetime-emmy-awards-scoring-history-making-win-for-outstanding-comedy-series/
同時也有1部Youtube影片,追蹤數超過3,600的網紅Kevin 英文不難,也在其Youtube影片中提到,你大學遇過恐怖的室友嗎?Teacher Kevin 在這次的英文 Podcast 分享網友在 Reddit 上訴說自己當年恐怖的遭遇。歡迎大家先不要看文稿,試著用聽的訓練自己的英文聽力。 訂閱: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC-LfXeUtpvAczV1w1y...
expected return中文 在 Roger Chung 鍾一諾 Facebook 的精選貼文
今早為Asian Medical Students Association Hong Kong (AMSAHK)的新一屆執行委員會就職典禮作致詞分享嘉賓,題目為「疫情中的健康不公平」。
感謝他們的熱情款待以及為整段致詞拍了影片。以下我附上致詞的英文原稿:
It's been my honor to be invited to give the closing remarks for the Inauguration Ceremony for the incoming executive committee of the Asian Medical Students' Association Hong Kong (AMSAHK) this morning. A video has been taken for the remarks I made regarding health inequalities during the COVID-19 pandemic (big thanks to the student who withstood the soreness of her arm for holding the camera up for 15 minutes straight), and here's the transcript of the main body of the speech that goes with this video:
//The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, continues to be rampant around the world since early 2020, resulting in more than 55 million cases and 1.3 million deaths worldwide as of today. (So no! It’s not a hoax for those conspiracy theorists out there!) A higher rate of incidence and deaths, as well as worse health-related quality of life have been widely observed in the socially disadvantaged groups, including people of lower socioeconomic position, older persons, migrants, ethnic minority and communities of color, etc. While epidemiologists and scientists around the world are dedicated in gathering scientific evidence on the specific causes and determinants of the health inequalities observed in different countries and regions, we can apply the Social Determinants of Health Conceptual Framework developed by the World Health Organization team led by the eminent Prof Sir Michael Marmot, world’s leading social epidemiologist, to understand and delineate these social determinants of health inequalities related to the COVID-19 pandemic.
According to this framework, social determinants of health can be largely categorized into two types – 1) the lower stream, intermediary determinants, and 2) the upper stream, structural and macro-environmental determinants. For the COVID-19 pandemic, we realized that the lower stream factors may include material circumstances, such as people’s living and working conditions. For instance, the nature of the occupations of these people of lower socioeconomic position tends to require them to travel outside to work, i.e., they cannot work from home, which is a luxury for people who can afford to do it. This lack of choice in the location of occupation may expose them to greater risk of infection through more transportation and interactions with strangers. We have also seen infection clusters among crowded places like elderly homes, public housing estates, and boarding houses for foreign domestic helpers. Moreover, these socially disadvantaged people tend to have lower financial and social capital – it can be observed that they were more likely to be deprived of personal protective equipment like face masks and hand sanitizers, especially during the earlier days of the pandemic. On the other hand, the upper stream, structural determinants of health may include policies related to public health, education, macroeconomics, social protection and welfare, as well as our governance… and last, but not least, our culture and values. If the socioeconomic and political contexts are not favorable to the socially disadvantaged, their health and well-being will be disproportionately affected by the pandemic. Therefore, if we, as a society, espouse to address and reduce the problem of health inequalities, social determinants of health cannot be overlooked in devising and designing any public health-related strategies, measures and policies.
Although a higher rate of incidence and deaths have been widely observed in the socially disadvantaged groups, especially in countries with severe COVID-19 outbreaks, this phenomenon seems to be less discussed and less covered by media in Hong Kong, where the disease incidence is relatively low when compared with other countries around the world. Before the resurgence of local cases in early July, local spread of COVID-19 was sporadic and most cases were imported. In the earlier days of the pandemic, most cases were primarily imported by travelers and return-students studying overseas, leading to a minor surge between mid-March and mid-April of 874 new cases. Most of these cases during Spring were people who could afford to travel and study abroad, and thus tended to be more well-off. Therefore, some would say the expected social gradient in health impact did not seem to exist in Hong Kong, but may I remind you that, it is only the case when we focus on COVID-19-specific incidence and mortality alone. But can we really deduce from this that COVID-19-related health inequality does not exist in Hong Kong? According to the Social Determinants of Health Framework mentioned earlier, the obvious answer is “No, of course not.” And here’s why…
In addition to the direct disease burden, the COVID-19 outbreak and its associated containment measures (such as economic lockdown, mandatory social distancing, and change of work arrangements) could have unequal wider socioeconomic impacts on the general population, especially in regions with pervasive existing social inequalities. Given the limited resources and capacity of the socioeconomically disadvantaged to respond to emergency and adverse events, their general health and well-being are likely to be unduly and inordinately affected by the abrupt changes in their daily economic and social conditions, like job loss and insecurity, brought about by the COVID-19 outbreak and the corresponding containment and mitigation measures of which the main purpose was supposedly disease prevention and health protection at the first place. As such, focusing only on COVID-19 incidence or mortality as the outcomes of concern to address health inequalities may leave out important aspects of life that contributes significantly to people’s health. Recently, my research team and I collaborated with Sir Michael Marmot in a Hong Kong study, and found that the poor people in Hong Kong fared worse in every aspects of life than their richer counterparts in terms of economic activity, personal protective equipment, personal hygiene practice, as well as well-being and health after the COVID-19 outbreak. We also found that part of the observed health inequality can be attributed to the pandemic and its related containment measures via people’s concerns over their own and their families’ livelihood and economic activity. In other words, health inequalities were contributed by the pandemic even in a city where incidence is relatively low through other social determinants of health that directly concerned the livelihood and economic activity of the people. So in this study, we confirmed that focusing only on the incident and death cases as the outcomes of concern to address health inequalities is like a story half-told, and would severely truncate and distort the reality.
Truth be told, health inequality does not only appear after the pandemic outbreak of COVID-19, it is a pre-existing condition in countries and regions around the world, including Hong Kong. My research over the years have consistently shown that people in lower socioeconomic position tend to have worse physical and mental health status. Nevertheless, precisely because health inequality is nothing new, there are always voices in our society trying to dismiss the problem, arguing that it is only natural to have wealth inequality in any capitalistic society. However, in reckoning with health inequalities, we need to go beyond just figuring out the disparities or differences in health status between the poor and the rich, and we need to raise an ethically relevant question: are these inequalities, disparities and differences remediable? Can they be fixed? Can we do something about them? If they are remediable, and we can do something about them but we haven’t, then we’d say these inequalities are ultimately unjust and unfair. In other words, a society that prides itself in pursuing justice must, and I say must, strive to address and reduce these unfair health inequalities. Borrowing the words from famed sociologist Judith Butler, “the virus alone does not discriminate,” but “social and economic inequality will make sure that it does.” With COVID-19, we learn that it is not only the individuals who are sick, but our society. And it’s time we do something about it.
Thank you very much!//
Please join me in congratulating the incoming executive committee of AMSAHK and giving them the best wishes for their future endeavor!
Roger Chung, PhD
Assistant Professor, CUHK JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, @CUHK Medicine, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 香港中文大學 - CUHK
Associate Director, CUHK Institute of Health Equity
expected return中文 在 股癌 Gooaye Facebook 的最佳貼文
財報是用來驗證自己的假說和判斷正不正確,而 guidance 則是未來的櫥窗,因為 Nvidia 買得比較多,就拋磚引玉速解一下。
財報部分:NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) reported Q2 EPS of $2.18 vs. $1.97 expected. Revenue for the quarter came in at $3.87 B vs. $3.65 B expected.
短評:不覺得有什麼特別的,為啥媒體都說很好?小贏預期,沒贏才奇怪,已經連續五季贏了。
這篇中文有詳細數據
https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/4517357
---
Guidance:
NVIDIA’s outlook for the third quarter of fiscal 2021 is as follows:
Revenue is expected to be $4.40 billion, plus or minus 2 percent.
所以大概是 QoQ 13%, YoY 46% 的預期成長,還不錯;雖然說公司重心從遊戲移到資料中心,但伺服器的成長率估計會趨緩,這也滿正常,這一季太暴力;但下半年估計有強勁遊戲潮,換遊戲區塊表演,大家顯卡買起來。
GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins are expected to be 62.5 percent and 65.5 percent, respectively, plus or minus 50 basis points.
本季 GAAP 報 58.8%, Non-GAAP 報 66%,若能毛利提升那不錯,反正像我這種肥宅,顯卡賣再貴還不是忍痛買下去,提升毛利人人有責。
小結:
有注意到本季的自由現金流大幅增加,套一句軟銀講的:“Cash is the defence for us.” ,這年頭一些公司不敢公布業績指引 (withdrawing guidance),或是沒有現金在手,一整個抖,反觀 Nvidia 滿手現金是好現象。
股價表現 YTD return: 108.65%,沒冤枉。各項估值法我是不覺得現價有特別便宜,手上也買太多,暫時不追了。
說來說去,還是等市場開獎吧,反正大漲大跌,都有故事可以講,劇本都準備好了。
https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-second-quarter-fiscal-2021
expected return中文 在 Kevin 英文不難 Youtube 的精選貼文
你大學遇過恐怖的室友嗎?Teacher Kevin 在這次的英文 Podcast 分享網友在 Reddit 上訴說自己當年恐怖的遭遇。歡迎大家先不要看文稿,試著用聽的訓練自己的英文聽力。
訂閱:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC-LfXeUtpvAczV1w1yTq4eQ
Podcast 連結
APPLE: https://podcasts.apple.com/tw/podcast/%E8%8B%B1%E6%96%87%E5%96%AE%E5%AD%97-%E7%89%87%E8%AA%9E-%E6%96%87%E6%B3%95/id1462457142
SPOTIFY: https://open.spotify.com/show/7wqKj2KnfHXLRa8AaIeyOn
上一部:恐怖大學室友 (1)|英文不難
https://youtu.be/ZpUJg_MBh7M
----文稿----
#1
I had two roommates that kept eating all of my food. Although classes haven't started, I had already moved into my dorm. One day, I made myself a peanut butter sandwich. I put my sandwich on the table, and ten minutes later, it was gone. My roommate ate it. About a week later, I decided to make myself another peanut butter sandwich. I opened my cupboard and saw that my roommates left an empty jar in my cupboard. I flipped out because who eats a whole jar of peanut butter, without introducing themselves? These girls would scarf down all my food, and complain if they thought anyone was touching their food. So I started buying really fattening food such as doughnuts, pies, cakes. I was trying to teach them self-restraint, but these girls would go through these boxes within two days. So I kept buying doughnuts and desserts. And then one day they started complaining about how they couldn't fit their jeans. Success. I also put laxatives in my peanut butter.
----單字----
dorm 宿舍
cupboard 櫃子
flipped out 暴怒
scarf down 狼吞虎嚥
fattening 增肥
restraint 節制
laxatives 瀉藥
#2
----文稿----
My roommate freshman year got completely hammered, came back to the room around 1 in the morning, and accused me of stealing the pudding in her fridge that she *had ate* an hour before she went out. She waited until I fell asleep and then stabbed me in the arm with one of those clicky pencils…I had to go to the hospital to get it cleaned/stitched. She got kicked out.
----單字----
freshman year 大一
hammered 嚴重酒醉
accused 指控
*had ate* 其實是錯的,應該是 had eaten。你有抓到嗎?XD
stabbed 捅
#3
----文稿----
I got absolutely hammered and pissed all over my roommates desk the night before the end of the year. I woke up to him hanging up his money to dry out. Years later he ended up as my boss and ended up giving me a significant promotion. I guess he doesn't hold grudges.
----單字----
pissed 尿尿
ended up 變成
significant 大、有份量的
promotion 升遷
hold a grudge 記仇
#4
----文稿----
It was move out day and my roommate was working on a paper last minute. I was packing my stuff. His parents walked in and were absolutely pissed that he wasn't packed yet. They immediately started scolding him while I was still in the room, but thankfully I had a final to go to and figured I'd dodge the storm. I said my goodbyes, assuming they'd be gone by the time I got back from my two hour final and went on my way. As it happens, my final only took twenty minutes so I got back much sooner than they'd have expected. I opened the door, saw my roommate bent over his bed with his bare ass showing just as his mom wound up for a spank. I quickly closed the door and went over to a friend's dorm until I felt safe enough to return. I never brought it up to him after that.
----單字----
paper 這裡是指報告
scolding 責罵
dodge the storm 避風頭
assuming 假設、預設
bare 沒穿衣服的、光溜溜
wound up 準備做某個動作
spank 打巴掌
bring something up 提及某事
*歡迎收聽全台灣最有趣的英文 Podcast。英文單字,片語,文法由 Teacher Kevin 主持,本節目可以在 Apple Podcast, Spotify 及所有 Podcast 平台上找到,無論搭車、騎車、打掃、運動,都可以邊做事邊學英文。
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#英文 Podcast #英文不難 #英文單字