🌻另一個Zoom會議(第二次貼......有補上一些內容)
繼上次的年報導讀會議後, 讓我們再做另一個會議! 這次很榮幸邀請到一位對估值很有見解的股友前輩來帶大家了解估值(恩, 這次我會是主持人, 不是主講人).
主題: 估值(valuation)分享會(Cat: 這不算基礎的估值會議)
主講人: 小揚(from安泰價值投資)
https://www.facebook.com/antaiinvestment (此為小揚的粉絲頁)
參與者: 具基本估值能力. 若打算參加者, 請事先跟我(請私訊)提出一個關於估值的case study, 到時候可在會議中分享(最好是以投影片形式呈現, 這樣到時候好跟大家分享). 若有估值的問題, 也可以提出.
Case study可以是美股, 也可以是台股.
時間: 台灣時間07/10 (周六)晚間9點.
預計一個小時(不會像上次那樣冗長了😅): 前30分鐘由小揚做分享, 後30分鐘大家分享估值案例&提問
進行方式: 以Zoom進行(之後會私訊會議資訊給參與者)
🌻Morgan Stanley Mid-year Investor Outlook: A tricky transition
https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/midyear-2021-global-markets-outlook
🌻在您投資生涯中, 有沒有一些觀念讓您受用很多?
下面這位投資名人的好觀念影響我很深. 他的意思是, 一般投資人, 只要能説出三個買一家公司的理由, 就很夠了. 這也迫使我, 每次在買股票時, 問自己對這家公司的了解有多少. 也會去衡量公司的優點與缺點在哪裡.
"It is vital (重要的) that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks."
全文在此:
Jim Cramer: In Times Like This, Go for the Easy Money
Look at the stocks you own. Can you tell me why you've got them? If you can't answer the following three questions, then have a look at several I like right now.
We've endured the meme stock craziness, with all of its love for heavily shorted stocks. We have watched the collapse of bitcoin to levels viewed as shocking, even if they are still more than double where they were not that long ago. We've dealt with Fed officials making it clear that they are no longer on the side of the bulls or the bears. They are on the side of job growth, but are wary of inflation. We've seen the end of the rush to get vaccines, which means that millions of people are going to get the new COVID variant, because there is no natural immunity to it. We've watched as the hopes for an infrastructure bill have collapsed. We've endured shortages of everything from chips to plastic to imported goods and labor.
And we're still standing, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Yep, we are in one of those halcyon moments, where the masks are off -- even if they shouldn't be -- and Americans are back doing what they do best: consume, spend, go out to eat and then consume and spend some more.
There are times in the stock market where the collective mindset is revealed. This is one of those times: Things are cool, it's not a big moment, there's no real news for a bit, it's the historically strong period and we can reach some conclusions about where we are.
When things are like this, it is important to remember that buyers like to revert to tried-and-true companies that thrive no matter what. These are companies that have an edge and are better at what they do than other companies.
You know that I am a great believer in index funds, that the average person doesn't have the time or the inclination to research individual stocks. It's a difficult barrier. I think you need to make time to read the quarterly report and listen to the conference call, to Google articles and, if possible, get some research about the companies you own. It is vital that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks. I am reminded by this, because, once again, without a mask, I can be recognized and if I am not holding "Nvidia the Second," I can carry on a conversation.
I have had many in the last two weeks and when I have asked this litany of questions, I find myself at a loss as to why almost no one knew what they owned. But they thirsted for individual stocks, because they, like me, think things are better post pandemic. No, that's not a facetious comment. Many, many stocks did better with a stay-at-home economy. A huge number.
So what do I do? I revert to what others do when you are stumped about how to stay in touch with stocks, but want to do less homework. That means buying stocks that are accessible, not stocks like Unity (U) or Snowflake (SNOW) or Twilio (TWLO) or Okta (OKTA) .
I revert to normal businesses people know and I suggest they Google some articles, peruse the conference call, but, above all, like the company's products so you can buy more if it goes down.
Here's some that I have been telling people I like:
First is Ford (F) . I think the Ford lineup is amazing. The electric F-150 series will be incredible. I am eager to get a Maverick for my family, because it is a smaller pickup that will get the job done for the myriad little things I need to do with this farm I bought from that crazy bitcoin foray. I like the competitive edge of the CEO, who says he is going to bury Elon Musk when the Lightning comes out. I even think the Bronco is cool as all get out. Most important, though? I think the chip shortage is ending. My semiconductor friends are telling me the foundries are producing more feature-rich chips and that means Ford can pump out the trucks small business people love and need. Plus, the used car prices at last have plateaued, according to their most important pricing index. Halcyon times.
Second, Costco (COST) : The samples are coming back. Tell me you don't love the samples. You need things in bulk. You want low prices. You want to get all of the things that people don't think of with Costco, like insurance, hearing-aids -- hey, they are a fortune -- jewelry, things around the house. You go and you will buy far more than you first came for. My kind of store.
The kids love this American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) , which we just bought for my charitable trust, which you can follow along by joining the Action Alerts PLUS club. Jay Schottenstein, the CEO, came on "Mad Money" recently and it's clear that his Aerie model has real staying power: 26 consecutive quarters of double digit growth. No flash in the pan, that one. Number one brand in jeans for the 15 to 25 year old group. The best in the mall. How did I know this? I see the credit card bills.
I got up this morning to do my physical therapy. I have been doing it ever since I hurt my back in February. I have this really cool pair of sneakers that fit me perfectly and I love them, but I am fortunate enough to have a vacation house and I am always taking those shoes with me.
So I went on Amazon (AMZN) this morning and lo and behold I saw them for half price. I bought two pairs. Then I went over everything I have bought in the last year and got a bunch of those things. Then I bought a pair of binoculars, because mine were stolen. I paid half price.
Yep, Amazon's universal. I was talking to Alexa, while I was ordering, getting some new music on, asking questions. I saw that despite all of the Sturm und Drang of Amazon being late with things, all the delivery dates were within range. I didn't click on any ads, and I didn't need the speed of Web Services, but the whole thing reminded me about how special the darned company is. I don't care if it's ahead or behind plan for the moment. I would just buy some more when it goes down.
Finally, Apple (AAPL) . I think people who don't own Apple should look what they are holding at this very moment. Yes, right now. Or look at what's in your lap or on the table besides your fork. And then think about the bill you paid last night without knowing it. Think about what you bought in the App store yesterday. Think about what would happen if it would break or get stolen or, left in the Uber (UBER) , or heaven forbid, be dropped into the pool or in the, yes, toilet.
There, that's what you buy in halcyon times. Stocks of companies you know that if they go lower, because things get less halcyon, you are fine with it and buy more. If things go up, believe me, you will participate.
So accept the moment. Don't try for the hard money. Go for the easy kind. That's the best kind.
https://realmoney.thestreet.com/jim-cramer/jim-cramer--15692051
Picture: 牡丹(peony)花開. 恨不得院子裡有一塊地是牡丹園.
family over everything meme 在 跟著象總跑步上學 Facebook 的最佳貼文
Michael Jordan:
‘When Kobe Bryant Died, a Piece of Me Died.’
當Kobe走了,部份的我也死了。。。😭
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-SEiGEbxv5M
>>>Jordan's complete speech (Jordan感言全文)
"I would say good morning, but it's afternoon. I'm grateful to Vanessa and the Bryant family for the opportunity to speak today.
"I'm grateful to be here to honor Gigi and celebrate the gifts that Kobe gave us all – what he accomplished as a basketball player, as a businessman, and a storyteller and as a father. In the game of basketball, in life, as a parent – Kobe left nothing in the tank. He left it all on the floor.
"Maybe it surprised people that Kobe and I were very close friends. But we were very close friends. Kobe was my dear friend. He was like a little brother. Everyone always wanted to talk about the comparisons between he and I. I just wanted to talk about Kobe.
.
"You know all of us have brothers and sisters, little brothers, little sisters, who for whatever reason always tend to get in your stuff, your closet, your shoes, everything. It was a nuisance – if I can say that word – but that nuisance turned into love over a period of time. Just because the admiration that they have for you as big brothers or big sisters, the questions in wanting to know every little detail about life that they were about to embark on.
"He used to call me, text me, 11:30, 2:30, 3 o'clock in the morning, talking about post-up moves, footwork, and sometimes, the triangle. At first, it was an aggravation. But then it turned into a certain passion. This kid had passion like you would never know. It's an amazing thing about passion. If you love something, if you have a strong passion for something, you would go to the extreme to try to understand or try to get it. Either ice cream, Cokes, hamburgers, whatever you have a love for. If you have to walk, you would go get it. If you have to beg someone, you would go get it.
"What Kobe Bryant was to me was the inspiration that someone truly cared about the way either I played the game or the way that he wanted to play the game. He wanted to be the best basketball player that he could be. And as I got to know him, I wanted to be the best big brother that I could be.
.
"To do that, you have to put up with the aggravation, the late-night calls, or the dumb questions. I took great pride as I got to know Kobe Bryant that he was just trying to be a better person – a better basketball player. We talked about business, we talked about family, we talked about everything. And he was just trying to be a better person.
"Now, he's got me and I'll have to look at another crying meme for the next ... (Lengthy laughter and applause.)
"I told my wife I wasn't gonna do this cause I didn't want to see that for the next three or four years. That is what Kobe Bryant does to me. I'm pretty sure Vanessa and his friends all can say the same thing – he knows how to get to you in a way that affects you personally, even though he's being a pain in the ass. But you have a sense of love for him and the way that he can bring out the best in you. And he did that for me.
.
"I remember maybe a couple months ago he sends me a text and he said, 'I'm trying to teach my daughter some moves. And I don't know what I was thinking or what I was working on, but what were you thinking about when you were growing up trying to work on your moves?' I said 'What age?' He says '12'. I said '12, I was trying to play baseball.' He sends me a text back saying 'Laughing my ass off.' And this is at 2 o'clock in the morning.
"But the thing about him was we could talk about anything that related to basketball but we could talk about anything that related to life. And we, as we grew up in life, rarely have friends that we can have conversations like that. Well, it's even rarer when you can grow up against adversaries and have conversations like that.
.
"I went and saw Phil Jackson in 1999, maybe 2000, I don't know, when Phil was here in L.A. And I walk in and Kobe's sitting there.
"And the first thing, Kobe said, 'Did you bring your shoes?'
" 'No, I wasn't thinking about playing.'
"But his attitude to compete and play against someone he felt like he could enhance and improve his game, that's what I loved about the kid. I absolutely loved the kid. No matter where he saw me, it was a challenge. And I admired him because his passion, you rarely see someone who is looking and trying to improve each and every day, not just in sports, but as a parent, as a husband. I am inspired by what he's done, and what he's shared with Vanessa, and what he's shared with his kids.
"I have a daughter who's 30 and I became a grandparent. And I have two twins. I have twins at 6. I can't wait to get home to become a GirlDad and to hug them and to see the love and smiles that they bring to us as parents. He taught me that just by looking at this tonight, looking at how he responded and reacted with the people he actually loved. These are the things that we will continue to learn from Kobe Bryant.
"To Vanessa, Natalia, Bianka, Capri, my wife and I will keep you close in our hearts and our prayers. We will always be here for you. Always. I also want to offer our condolences and support to all the families affected by this enormous tragedy.
.
"Kobe gave every last ounce of himself to whatever he was doing, After basketball, he showed a creative side to himself that I didn't think any of us knew he had. In retirement, he seemed so happy. He found new passions. And he continued to give back, as a coach, in his community. More importantly, he was an amazing dad, amazing husband, who dedicated himself to his family and who loved his daughters with all his heart. Kobe never left anything on the court. And I think that's what he would want for us to do.
"No one knows how much time we have. That's why we must live in the moment, we must enjoy the moment, we must reach and see and spend as much time as we can with our families and friends and the people that we absolutely love. To live in the moment means to enjoy each and every one that we come in contact with.
.
"When Kobe Bryant died, a piece of me died. And as I look in this arena and across the globe, a piece of you died, or else you wouldn't be here. Those are the memories that we have to live with and we learn from.
"I promise you from this day forward, I will live with the memories of knowing that I had a little brother and I tried to help in every way I could.
"Please, rest in peace little brother. "
#Mamba_Out
family over everything meme 在 跟著象總跑步上學 Facebook 的精選貼文
Michael Jordan:
‘When Kobe Bryant Died, a Piece of Me Died.’
當Kobe走了,部份的我也死了。。。😭
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-SEiGEbxv5M
>>>Jordan's complete speech (Jordan感言全文)
"I would say good morning, but it's afternoon. I'm grateful to Vanessa and the Bryant family for the opportunity to speak today.
"I'm grateful to be here to honor Gigi and celebrate the gifts that Kobe gave us all – what he accomplished as a basketball player, as a businessman, and a storyteller and as a father. In the game of basketball, in life, as a parent – Kobe left nothing in the tank. He left it all on the floor.
"Maybe it surprised people that Kobe and I were very close friends. But we were very close friends. Kobe was my dear friend. He was like a little brother. Everyone always wanted to talk about the comparisons between he and I. I just wanted to talk about Kobe.
.
"You know all of us have brothers and sisters, little brothers, little sisters, who for whatever reason always tend to get in your stuff, your closet, your shoes, everything. It was a nuisance – if I can say that word – but that nuisance turned into love over a period of time. Just because the admiration that they have for you as big brothers or big sisters, the questions in wanting to know every little detail about life that they were about to embark on.
"He used to call me, text me, 11:30, 2:30, 3 o'clock in the morning, talking about post-up moves, footwork, and sometimes, the triangle. At first, it was an aggravation. But then it turned into a certain passion. This kid had passion like you would never know. It's an amazing thing about passion. If you love something, if you have a strong passion for something, you would go to the extreme to try to understand or try to get it. Either ice cream, Cokes, hamburgers, whatever you have a love for. If you have to walk, you would go get it. If you have to beg someone, you would go get it.
"What Kobe Bryant was to me was the inspiration that someone truly cared about the way either I played the game or the way that he wanted to play the game. He wanted to be the best basketball player that he could be. And as I got to know him, I wanted to be the best big brother that I could be.
.
"To do that, you have to put up with the aggravation, the late-night calls, or the dumb questions. I took great pride as I got to know Kobe Bryant that he was just trying to be a better person – a better basketball player. We talked about business, we talked about family, we talked about everything. And he was just trying to be a better person.
"Now, he's got me and I'll have to look at another crying meme for the next ... (Lengthy laughter and applause.)
"I told my wife I wasn't gonna do this cause I didn't want to see that for the next three or four years. That is what Kobe Bryant does to me. I'm pretty sure Vanessa and his friends all can say the same thing – he knows how to get to you in a way that affects you personally, even though he's being a pain in the ass. But you have a sense of love for him and the way that he can bring out the best in you. And he did that for me.
.
"I remember maybe a couple months ago he sends me a text and he said, 'I'm trying to teach my daughter some moves. And I don't know what I was thinking or what I was working on, but what were you thinking about when you were growing up trying to work on your moves?' I said 'What age?' He says '12'. I said '12, I was trying to play baseball.' He sends me a text back saying 'Laughing my ass off.' And this is at 2 o'clock in the morning.
"But the thing about him was we could talk about anything that related to basketball but we could talk about anything that related to life. And we, as we grew up in life, rarely have friends that we can have conversations like that. Well, it's even rarer when you can grow up against adversaries and have conversations like that.
.
"I went and saw Phil Jackson in 1999, maybe 2000, I don't know, when Phil was here in L.A. And I walk in and Kobe's sitting there.
"And the first thing, Kobe said, 'Did you bring your shoes?'
" 'No, I wasn't thinking about playing.'
"But his attitude to compete and play against someone he felt like he could enhance and improve his game, that's what I loved about the kid. I absolutely loved the kid. No matter where he saw me, it was a challenge. And I admired him because his passion, you rarely see someone who is looking and trying to improve each and every day, not just in sports, but as a parent, as a husband. I am inspired by what he's done, and what he's shared with Vanessa, and what he's shared with his kids.
"I have a daughter who's 30 and I became a grandparent. And I have two twins. I have twins at 6. I can't wait to get home to become a GirlDad and to hug them and to see the love and smiles that they bring to us as parents. He taught me that just by looking at this tonight, looking at how he responded and reacted with the people he actually loved. These are the things that we will continue to learn from Kobe Bryant.
"To Vanessa, Natalia, Bianka, Capri, my wife and I will keep you close in our hearts and our prayers. We will always be here for you. Always. I also want to offer our condolences and support to all the families affected by this enormous tragedy.
.
"Kobe gave every last ounce of himself to whatever he was doing, After basketball, he showed a creative side to himself that I didn't think any of us knew he had. In retirement, he seemed so happy. He found new passions. And he continued to give back, as a coach, in his community. More importantly, he was an amazing dad, amazing husband, who dedicated himself to his family and who loved his daughters with all his heart. Kobe never left anything on the court. And I think that's what he would want for us to do.
"No one knows how much time we have. That's why we must live in the moment, we must enjoy the moment, we must reach and see and spend as much time as we can with our families and friends and the people that we absolutely love. To live in the moment means to enjoy each and every one that we come in contact with.
.
"When Kobe Bryant died, a piece of me died. And as I look in this arena and across the globe, a piece of you died, or else you wouldn't be here. Those are the memories that we have to live with and we learn from.
"I promise you from this day forward, I will live with the memories of knowing that I had a little brother and I tried to help in every way I could.
"Please, rest in peace little brother. "
#Mamba_Out