🌻另一個Zoom會議(第二次貼......有補上一些內容)
繼上次的年報導讀會議後, 讓我們再做另一個會議! 這次很榮幸邀請到一位對估值很有見解的股友前輩來帶大家了解估值(恩, 這次我會是主持人, 不是主講人).
主題: 估值(valuation)分享會(Cat: 這不算基礎的估值會議)
主講人: 小揚(from安泰價值投資)
https://www.facebook.com/antaiinvestment (此為小揚的粉絲頁)
參與者: 具基本估值能力. 若打算參加者, 請事先跟我(請私訊)提出一個關於估值的case study, 到時候可在會議中分享(最好是以投影片形式呈現, 這樣到時候好跟大家分享). 若有估值的問題, 也可以提出.
Case study可以是美股, 也可以是台股.
時間: 台灣時間07/10 (周六)晚間9點.
預計一個小時(不會像上次那樣冗長了😅): 前30分鐘由小揚做分享, 後30分鐘大家分享估值案例&提問
進行方式: 以Zoom進行(之後會私訊會議資訊給參與者)
🌻Morgan Stanley Mid-year Investor Outlook: A tricky transition
https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/midyear-2021-global-markets-outlook
🌻在您投資生涯中, 有沒有一些觀念讓您受用很多?
下面這位投資名人的好觀念影響我很深. 他的意思是, 一般投資人, 只要能説出三個買一家公司的理由, 就很夠了. 這也迫使我, 每次在買股票時, 問自己對這家公司的了解有多少. 也會去衡量公司的優點與缺點在哪裡.
"It is vital (重要的) that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks."
全文在此:
Jim Cramer: In Times Like This, Go for the Easy Money
Look at the stocks you own. Can you tell me why you've got them? If you can't answer the following three questions, then have a look at several I like right now.
We've endured the meme stock craziness, with all of its love for heavily shorted stocks. We have watched the collapse of bitcoin to levels viewed as shocking, even if they are still more than double where they were not that long ago. We've dealt with Fed officials making it clear that they are no longer on the side of the bulls or the bears. They are on the side of job growth, but are wary of inflation. We've seen the end of the rush to get vaccines, which means that millions of people are going to get the new COVID variant, because there is no natural immunity to it. We've watched as the hopes for an infrastructure bill have collapsed. We've endured shortages of everything from chips to plastic to imported goods and labor.
And we're still standing, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Yep, we are in one of those halcyon moments, where the masks are off -- even if they shouldn't be -- and Americans are back doing what they do best: consume, spend, go out to eat and then consume and spend some more.
There are times in the stock market where the collective mindset is revealed. This is one of those times: Things are cool, it's not a big moment, there's no real news for a bit, it's the historically strong period and we can reach some conclusions about where we are.
When things are like this, it is important to remember that buyers like to revert to tried-and-true companies that thrive no matter what. These are companies that have an edge and are better at what they do than other companies.
You know that I am a great believer in index funds, that the average person doesn't have the time or the inclination to research individual stocks. It's a difficult barrier. I think you need to make time to read the quarterly report and listen to the conference call, to Google articles and, if possible, get some research about the companies you own. It is vital that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks. I am reminded by this, because, once again, without a mask, I can be recognized and if I am not holding "Nvidia the Second," I can carry on a conversation.
I have had many in the last two weeks and when I have asked this litany of questions, I find myself at a loss as to why almost no one knew what they owned. But they thirsted for individual stocks, because they, like me, think things are better post pandemic. No, that's not a facetious comment. Many, many stocks did better with a stay-at-home economy. A huge number.
So what do I do? I revert to what others do when you are stumped about how to stay in touch with stocks, but want to do less homework. That means buying stocks that are accessible, not stocks like Unity (U) or Snowflake (SNOW) or Twilio (TWLO) or Okta (OKTA) .
I revert to normal businesses people know and I suggest they Google some articles, peruse the conference call, but, above all, like the company's products so you can buy more if it goes down.
Here's some that I have been telling people I like:
First is Ford (F) . I think the Ford lineup is amazing. The electric F-150 series will be incredible. I am eager to get a Maverick for my family, because it is a smaller pickup that will get the job done for the myriad little things I need to do with this farm I bought from that crazy bitcoin foray. I like the competitive edge of the CEO, who says he is going to bury Elon Musk when the Lightning comes out. I even think the Bronco is cool as all get out. Most important, though? I think the chip shortage is ending. My semiconductor friends are telling me the foundries are producing more feature-rich chips and that means Ford can pump out the trucks small business people love and need. Plus, the used car prices at last have plateaued, according to their most important pricing index. Halcyon times.
Second, Costco (COST) : The samples are coming back. Tell me you don't love the samples. You need things in bulk. You want low prices. You want to get all of the things that people don't think of with Costco, like insurance, hearing-aids -- hey, they are a fortune -- jewelry, things around the house. You go and you will buy far more than you first came for. My kind of store.
The kids love this American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) , which we just bought for my charitable trust, which you can follow along by joining the Action Alerts PLUS club. Jay Schottenstein, the CEO, came on "Mad Money" recently and it's clear that his Aerie model has real staying power: 26 consecutive quarters of double digit growth. No flash in the pan, that one. Number one brand in jeans for the 15 to 25 year old group. The best in the mall. How did I know this? I see the credit card bills.
I got up this morning to do my physical therapy. I have been doing it ever since I hurt my back in February. I have this really cool pair of sneakers that fit me perfectly and I love them, but I am fortunate enough to have a vacation house and I am always taking those shoes with me.
So I went on Amazon (AMZN) this morning and lo and behold I saw them for half price. I bought two pairs. Then I went over everything I have bought in the last year and got a bunch of those things. Then I bought a pair of binoculars, because mine were stolen. I paid half price.
Yep, Amazon's universal. I was talking to Alexa, while I was ordering, getting some new music on, asking questions. I saw that despite all of the Sturm und Drang of Amazon being late with things, all the delivery dates were within range. I didn't click on any ads, and I didn't need the speed of Web Services, but the whole thing reminded me about how special the darned company is. I don't care if it's ahead or behind plan for the moment. I would just buy some more when it goes down.
Finally, Apple (AAPL) . I think people who don't own Apple should look what they are holding at this very moment. Yes, right now. Or look at what's in your lap or on the table besides your fork. And then think about the bill you paid last night without knowing it. Think about what you bought in the App store yesterday. Think about what would happen if it would break or get stolen or, left in the Uber (UBER) , or heaven forbid, be dropped into the pool or in the, yes, toilet.
There, that's what you buy in halcyon times. Stocks of companies you know that if they go lower, because things get less halcyon, you are fine with it and buy more. If things go up, believe me, you will participate.
So accept the moment. Don't try for the hard money. Go for the easy kind. That's the best kind.
https://realmoney.thestreet.com/jim-cramer/jim-cramer--15692051
Picture: 牡丹(peony)花開. 恨不得院子裡有一塊地是牡丹園.
同時也有10000部Youtube影片,追蹤數超過2,910的網紅コバにゃんチャンネル,也在其Youtube影片中提到,...
getting around意思 在 蔡依橙的閱讀筆記 Facebook 的最佳貼文
更新,後來我去找了訪問的原文,我覺得這邊其實是有爭議的。請大家閱讀測驗一下。
我看過之後認為,佛奇實際的意思,是說,你們這些參議員說得太扯了,美國沒有參與中國研發病毒。而他支持更多的調查。
但因為記者剛剛問他,你覺得病毒是自然產生的嗎?而他第一句就回:不,這就是我說過的重點。出現的時機很不好。
就字面上,跟就前後文意,的確有兩種解讀方式。
PolitiFact: That has been the subject of a lot of our fact checking on the coronavirus for the past year. And like you said, there's a lot of cloudiness around the origins of COVID-19 still. So I wanted to ask, are you still confident that it developed naturally?
Fauci: No, actually, that's the point that I said. And I think the real unfortunate aspect of what Sen. Paul did is he was conflating research in a collaborative way with Chinese scientists, which was, you know, you'd almost have to say, if we did not do that we would almost be irresponsible because SARS-CoV-1 clearly originated in China, and we were fortunate to escape a major pandemic. So we really had to learn a lot more about the viruses that were there, about whether or not people were getting infected with bad viruses. So in a very minor collaboration as part of a subcontract of a grant, we had a collaboration with some Chinese scientists. And what he conflated is that therefore we were involved in creating the virus which is the most ridiculous majestic leap I've ever heard of. But no, I'm not convinced about that. I think that we should continue to investigate what went on in China until we find out to the best of our ability exactly what happened. Certainly the people who've investigated say it likely was the emergence from an animal reservoir that then infected individuals, but it could have been something else. And we need to find that out. So, you know, that's the reason why I said I'm perfectly in favor of any investigation that looks into the origin of the virus.
https://www.politifact.com/article/2021/may/14/transcript-what-dr-fauci-told-politifact/
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反川陣營,把川普換掉後,漸漸地也走上了川普本來走的道路。
「曾再三堅決反對川普政府關於中國病毒實驗室起源論的美國國家過敏與傳染病研究院(NIAID)院長佛奇(Anthony Fauci),如今改口稱,他「不相信」病毒起源於自然。」
「佛奇曾經在《國家地理》雜誌2020年5月的一篇文章中聲稱,所有的證據都「強烈表明」病毒來自於自然,同時他「基於科學證據」,不接受病毒的實驗室逃逸論。
他的這一番講話,被當時的主流媒體解讀為對川普政府認為武漢病毒研究所與病毒來源有關的斥責。」
getting around意思 在 Claudia Mo/毛孟靜 Facebook 的最佳解答
A #dirty magazine 色情雜誌,a dirty movie 三級電影,一句 give her a dirty look,或會誤解為「色迷迷的眼神」,這是錯的。 A dirty #look ,係 #𥇣死你。
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A dirty look 「𥇣」死你
明報英文 | 毛孟靜
一日,在家偷拍家狗動靜,狗兒回眸一瞪,明顯不高興的眼神,用廣東話表達,就是:「影咩影,『𥇣 』死你吖嗱。」用英文講「𥇣 」死你,第一個想到的是:Give you a dirty look。
要留意,我們說 a dirty magazine 指色情雜誌,a dirty movie 係三級電影,一句 give her a dirty look,有人或會誤解為「色迷迷的眼神」,這是錯的。句子是說:給她一個憤怒 angry、表示反對 disapproving 、反感 disgusted 的眼神;簡單一點,就是怒視、「𥇣 」或矋。
· The other passengers gave me dirty looks for taking up too much room on the bus. 因我霸佔了太多空間,巴士上的其他乘客都向我怒目而視。
若在網上一查 a dirty look 的中文翻譯,會出現「骯髒的外觀」,這自然也是錯的。要記得,dirty 除了解作不潔、憤怒,亦可解作「不可接受、令人反感的事物」。
像 dirty word(s) 髒話,好像就代表粗口,就與性有關?不一定呢,看以下 dirty word 的用法:
· For environmentalists, "disposable" has become a dirty word. 對環境保護者來說,「即用即棄」已變成一個髒詞。
· "Quarantine" is quite a dirty word among business travellers amidst the pandemic. 在大流行病期間,商務客視「隔離」一語如髒話。
回說 a dirty look,若要進一步形容憤怒,可說:
· Getting increasingly annoyed, I decided to give her AN EVIL EYE. 我益發惱怒,決定向她惡狠狠地瞪眼。
· He had a dark look in his eyes, AN EVIL STARE. 他眼睛裏閃過一份陰沉,散發敵意。
這個 evil,固然也解作邪惡,但一般是指「不懷好意」;當中確也包含仇恨 hateful、惡意 malicious 以至恐嚇 threatening 的味道。
· I saw him giving me the evil eye, so I turned around and walked the other way. 看到他用敵意以至恐嚇的眼神瞪過來,我於是掉頭走另一條路。
或問,不管 a dirty look 或 an evil stare ,平鋪直敘說 an angry look、an angry stare 不就可以了嗎?當然可以,但文字就少了色彩。還有,不喜歡用不等於不用知道 —— 尤其是 a dirty look 是常用語,聽人家說了,不要誤解意思也就好。中文同樣會形容一個人「眼放飛劍」,是說眼神之凌厲如有殺意。英文用短劍 daggers,眾數。
· Daggers were coming out of her eyes. 她眼放飛劍。
. He obviously hates me. He stares daggers at me. 他一定是憎恨我,他向我眼放飛劍。
· He saw her sour and angry face. He was getting daggers from her. 他看到她一臉惱怒,一直在向他發放飛劍。
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