➥【重點摘要】:
自2020年1月起,中國COVID-19病例快速攀升,疫情最嚴重的武漢在2020年1月23日採取封城措施,以對抗持續升溫的疫情,後續全國多個城市也進入封城或半封城狀態。
此中國研究發現,北京、上海、深圳及溫州的第一波疫情,在積極採取多項管制措施後,新冠病毒「即時有效繁殖率」( instantaneous reproduction number,Rt) 逐漸降到1以下,表示疫情已受控制。作者進一步利用傳染病模型(Susceptible–Infectious–Recovered, SIR model)預測發現,處在境外移入病例增加的第二波疫情中,即使剛始是病例數不多的小規模疫情,但若逐漸鬆綁管制措施,病例數將會呈指數型快速上升。
雖然在再次採取嚴厲的管控措施下,疫情可以得到控制,但過程中會付出相當的健康及經濟的損失。因此如何在社經活動及疫情管控兩者間取得平衡,是重要的課題。作者建議 Rt可以當作決策的重要指標,在新冠疫苗上市前,決策單位應參考動態的Rt,微調各項管制政策,儘可能將Rt維持在1以下,避免疫情再次的爆發。
註: 「即時有效繁殖率」( instantaneous reproduction number,Rt)的定義為一個個案發病後,在 t時間點平均可以傳給幾個人。Rt < 1 表示疫情逐漸控制中; Rt > 1 表示疫情仍持續流行。 會影響Rt的因子包含:人口密度、交通運輸、個人防護、社經活動、病毒傳播能力等。
(「財團法人國家衛生研究院」吳綺容醫師 摘要整理)
📋 First-wave COVID-19 transmissibility and severity in China outside Hubei after control measures, and second-wave scenario planning: a modelling impact assessment.(2020/04/8)+中文摘要轉譯
➥Author:Leung K, Wu JT, Liu D, et al.
➥Link: The Lancet
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673620307467?via%3Dihub
#2019COVID19Academic
衛生福利部
疾病管制署 - 1922防疫達人
疾病管制署
國家衛生研究院-論壇
hubei中文 在 小米麻糬愛旅遊(Showme100 Love Travel) Facebook 的精選貼文
請把這篇“#是台灣發明武漢肺炎病毒快篩縮短為15分鐘檢測”英文版,分享出去!!台灣不是中國的一部份.
#Wuhancoronavirus made in China!!
Taiwan is an Independent country!!
#台灣是個主權獨立的國家!
Taiwan is not a part of China!
#台灣不是中國大陸的一部份!
👉English version
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3893301
Taipei, March 8 (CNA)
Taiwan's Academic Sinica(中央研究院) has synthesized monoclonal antibodies that are able to identify the protein of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), an important step in the direction of producing a rapid screening reagent for the fast spreading pathogenic virus.
The potential reagent, if successfully mass produced in the future, will shorten the test for the new coronavirus from about 4 hours to 15-20 minutes, significantly improving screening efficiency, the top academic research institution in the nation said in a statement on Sunday.
Yang An-suei (楊安綏), an Academic Sinica research fellow at the Genomics Research Center who heads the research team that achieved the synthesis, said the key for rapid screening to work lies in the relevant reagent being able to identify the new coronavirus accurately.
In just 19 days, the team produced 46 monoclonal antibodies, each at least one milligram in size, based on seven human coronavirus nucleocapsid protein antigens, according to Yang.
He said one of the antibodies demonstrates "perfect" efficiency in identifying the new coronavirus because it does not react to other members of the coronavirus family, including those that cause Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), or other respiratory diseases.
Academia Sinica President James Liao (中央研究院院長廖俊智) said the data will be placed on the COVID-19 platform the institution built to share information with domestic academic and science research institutes, to speed up the development of rapid screening kits, drugs and vaccines to combat the deadly epidemic.
Yang's team "achieved the goal two months ahead of schedule," Liao said.
Assisted by the Ministry of Economic Affairs, the research team will hold talks with several companies about the production of rapid screening kits based on its research results, according to Academic Sinica.
If everything goes smoothly, mass production could begin soon after the Ministry of Health and Welfare verifies and approves the reagent, within the next 3-4 months, the institution said.
There have been more than 100,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases in over 80 countries and areas, including Taiwan, with 3,000-plus deaths, since the disease was first reported in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China last December.
(By Chang Hsiung-feng and Elizabeth Hsu)
Enditem/AW
👉中文版
台北3月8日(CNA)中央研究院(Taiwan's Academic Sinica)已合成單克隆抗體,能夠鑑定SARS-CoV-2的蛋白質,SARS-CoV-2的病毒會導致2019年的冠狀病毒病(COVID-19),這是朝著生產SARS-CoV-2邁出的重要一步快速傳播病原病毒的快速篩選試劑。
台灣頂級學術研究機構週日在一份聲明中說,這種潛在的試劑如果能夠在未來成功量產,它將把新的冠狀病毒的檢測時間從約4小時縮短至15-20分鐘,從而大大提高篩選效率。
負責完成合成的研究團隊的基因組學研究中心的中央研究院研究員楊安-(Yang An-suei)表示,快速篩選工作的關鍵在於能夠識別新冠狀病毒的相關試劑準確。
Yang說,在短短的19天之內,該團隊就基於7種人類冠狀病毒核衣殼蛋白抗原產生了46種單克隆抗體,每個抗體大小至少為1毫克。
他說,其中一種抗體在識別新的冠狀病毒方面表現出“完美”的效率,因為它不與冠狀病毒家族的其他成員發生反應,包括那些引起嚴重急性呼吸系統綜合症(SARS),中東呼吸系統綜合症(MERS)或其他呼吸系統疾病。
台灣的中央研究院院長廖俊智(James Liao)表示,數據將放置在COVID-19平台上,該平台旨在與國內學術和科研機構共享信息,以加快開發快速篩查試劑盒,藥物和疫苗的能力,致命的流行病。
廖說,楊的團隊“比原計劃提前兩個月實現了目標。”
根據經濟部(Ministry of Economic Affairs)的說法,該研究團隊將在經濟部的協助下,與幾家公司就其快速篩查試劑盒的生產進行談判。
如果一切順利,在衛生署(Ministry of Health)
確認並批准該試劑後不久,便可以開始大規模生產,時間為3-4個月。
自從去年12月在中國湖北省武漢首次報導該疾病以來,在包括台灣在內的80多個國家和地區,已有超過100,000例確診的COVID-19病例,導致3,000多人死亡。
👉更多相關中文報導
https://www.facebook.com/148395741852581/posts/4177706278921487/
👉發現武漢肺炎篩檢關鍵 中研院:完全與中國無關
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/ahel/202003090048.aspx
hubei中文 在 葉漢浩 Alex Ip Facebook 的最佳解答
Hong Kong Connection:Cities in Lockdown
《鏗鏘集》(英文版) ︰封城
Hongkongers in Hubei Province, the epicenter of the coronavirus, returned to Hong Kong finally after being stranded for over 40 days. Hong Kong Connection looked into how desperate their lives were back then. We also contacted Wuhan residents, and invited them to capture on video their tears, anger and the state of limbo in the closed-off city.
港府安排包機,接載滯留武漢的港人回港。一月廿三日,武漢因為新型冠狀病毒而封城,限制人員出入。鏗鏘集聯絡當地居民及香港人,邀請他們自拍封城的日子,看看他在坐困危城下,如何過日子。
英文版YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4TBO0giNldM
中文版YouTube: https://youtu.be/cwsD9xpY7X0
#鏗鏘集 #鏗鏘集英文版 #HKCONNECTION