🌻Docusign(DOCU), Crowdstrike(CRWD)財報結果
上週這兩家公司發表財報了.
這兩天看了一下他們的財報結果. Again, 兩家的表現都很好, 但發現分析師給DOCU的調價(往上)幅度比較多, 就好奇研究了一下SaaS公司是怎麼被估值的. 有興趣的話可以看看(從中學習到很多. 非常推薦一讀):
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2021/09/blog-post.html
(By the way, 分析師對CRWD的價格調幅沒那麼大, 主因是成長趨緩了. 而DOCU的free cash flow佔營收比, 以及顧客黏著力在這季創了新高, 是讓分析師按讚的幾個原因).
關於CRWD: "The Street is already modeling revenue growth deceleration in 2022 to 36%, down from 60% expected in 2021, which on its own might prove a hurdle for a stock already trading at a high multiple," said Bank of America analyst Tal Liani in a report.
分析師對於DOCU的評價:
• 11位buy; 給的價格分別是: $310, $320 (x2), $330 (x2), $340 (x2), $345, $350, $350, $389
• 給Buy的分析師的評語:
o Baird: The analyst continues to view them as a best in class way to play digital transformation trends with strong growth, cash flow and profitability, and a strong competitive position. Power said DocuSign remains one of his top long-term compounding growth ideas.
o Citi: While slightly shy of the double-digit billings beat in recent quarters, DocuSign still delivered a solid 8% beat to Q2 billings, which grew 47% year-over-year, Radke tells investors in a research note.
o Evercore ISI: he calls "another strong quarter." While some may have wanted to see more aggressive Q3 billings guidance, he believes estimates "continue to leave room for upside," Materne said.
o JMP Securities: While revenue growth decelerated to 50% from 58% in Q1, the company is the clear leader in electronic signature and the broader system of agreement having crossed over 1M customers with a $2B run rate this quarter, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that he sees lots of room for growth as DocuSign targets a $50B total addressable market.
o Needham: The analyst commented, "Docusign reported another strong quarter in 2QF22 with typical DOCU upside to revenue and profitability. Sales metrics and growth decelerated Q/Q, as we expected against a massive pandemic quarter, but at a much slower rate than we believe much of the Street was anticipating. 65k net new customers was lower than the 70k - 90 range of CY20 but was still more than 2x greater than any pre-pandemic quarter, highlighting a strong end-market driving 47% billings growth against a strong comp. Commentary on incremental Agreement Cloud demand was positive, suggesting an additional growth tailwind combined with solid international can further aid 2HF22. Although DOCU shares could be lower near-term due to weak 2H OpMg guidance, we think this guidance is conservative, as the recent OM was greater than the pre-pandemic level even with tough comps."
o RBC Capital: The quarter highlighted the sustainability of the company's tailwinds post-pandemic as most of its underlying metrics such as billings and net revenue retention were solid, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that the traction with CLM and Notary was also "impressive".
分析師對於CRWD的評價:
• 12位buy; 給的價格分別是: $300, $310 (x2), $313, $315 (x2) , $305, $320, $325, $330 (x2), $340
• 1位給hold: $280 (from $220 by J.P. Morgan(same))
• 給Buy的分析師的評語:
o Baird: The analyst believes the company has significant room for growth with core modules, opportunities with Humio and in cloud workload security, among others, should help drive a continuation of strong growth over a long time horizon.
o BTIG: The company's "strong" Q2 results "cleared every hurdle", even though the buy-side benchmarks may have been slightly higher, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Powell adds that Crowdstrike is clearly gaining share in its core endpoint security target market at a rapid pace and gaining traction with new products across multiple categories.
o Canaccord: The analyst said the stock is down from its recent highs, and he thinks the re-rating creates a more favorable entry point for longer-oriented investors for a foundational security name. He views Crowdstrike as a long-term secular winner in security due to its native cloud platform advantage versus closely held peers in endpoint security combined with platform expansion into tangential segments to capture greater share of security budgets.
o Goldman Sachs: CrowdStrike last night delivered "another beat and raise quarter as the company benefited from another quarter of elevated demand," Essex said. But it traded lower following net new annual recurring revenue growth guidance that was slightly less than investors had hoped for. Essex, nonetheless, said the quarter demonstrated CrowdStrike's "ability to continue to go down market efficiently."
o JMP Securities: The analyst notes the company's Q2 annualized recurring revenue of $1.34B topping his estimate of $1.30B, with "sustained" 70% ARR and revenue growth along with margin upside seen as key highlights for the quarter. Suppiger adds that the metrics reflect Crowdstrike's "strong execution and robust demand environment".
o Mizuho: "very good" fiscal Q2 results. The annual recurring revenue growth of 70% year-over-year "was strong and still nicely surpassed" the Street's 65%-66% estimate, Moskowitz tells investors in a research note. He believes "strong execution can propel" Crowdstrike's stock higher.
o Piper Sandler: The company's metrics "outperformed across the board" in Q2 with 70% annual recurring revenue and revenue growth and record net new customer adds in the quarter, Owens tells investors in a research note.
o RBC Capital: Hedberg adds that CrowdStrike's record pipeline entering Q3 should continue to fuel the company's "land-and-expand" momentum.
o Stifel: Q2 results that he said "exceeded consensus estimates across all major financial metrics." He continues to believe that Crowdstrike's growth opportunity "remains in the early days" despite the company's scale given continued share capture within its core endpoint security market and incremental module adoption on the Falcon Platform, Reback tells investors.
o UBS: the company reported "pretty good" Q2 results against high expectations.
🌻趨勢: 跨境電商 Cross-border commerce
Morgan Stanley:
From our perspective, we think many are underestimating what the cross-border eCommerce demand could ultimately be, once key friction points like FX rates, tax and duties, shipping, language, etc are smoothed—all issues that Global-E directly addresses.
Cross-border ecommerce brings new, high-yield volume: We think elevated levels of cross-border ecommerce (ex-travel) is a structural shift thathas yet to be fully contemplated in MA (and V)'s long-term forecasts. MA's cross-border CNP ex-travel volume was 69% above 2019's level in 2Q and 63% higher in 1Q. Strength reflects both broader ecommerce adoption plus globalization of commerce, as marketplaces and services that reduce cross-border friction (such as those from GLBE) make international online ordering more readily adopted. Early data at V suggests greater cross-border ecommerce spend is persisting even in areas with pre-pandemic levels of international travel. Cross-border transactions also come at a higher yield, making us more optimistic that the trend can bring incremental long-term growth to the networks.
產業的潮流是有連貫性的. 疫情讓電商更發達後, 接下來應該就是加速電商跨境了. 跨境的話, 有很多問題需要解決(稅率, 語言, etc.) 這就需要有公司來做整合的動作. 這種跨境, 也可以想像是omnichannel的一種呈現.
Harley Finkelstein (President of Shopify): "I mean I think commerce in 2021 is cross-border."
🌻SPAC熱潮退卻,初創市值蒸發750億美元
"SPAC熱潮已經退卻。分析顯示,在2月中旬以前完成合併的137家SPAC的總市值已經蒸發25%,市值回落幅度上個月一度超過1,000億美元。"
"像貝萊德(BlackRock Inc., BLK)和富達投資(Fidelity Investments Inc.)這類企業管理的基金,以及許多對沖基金、養老金管理公司和其他一些投資者,都在SPAC的回落中遭受了衝擊,他們在去年年底開始的熱潮中競相投資SPAC。其中許多基金由於在價格還很低的時候就早早入場,所以現在仍坐擁可觀收益。事實上,SPAC市值仍有約2,500億美元,高於一年前的約1,000億美元,反映出這期間股價上漲和新公司上市的影響。
但即便如此,今年年初令人炫目的回報還是讓許多後來者做了接盤俠,扎堆投資所謂穩賺不賠的領域,其永恆的風險可見一斑。在過去的幾個月裡,一些投資者眼睜睜看著帳面財富縮水。"
"股價下跌會在SPAC領域形成惡性循環,因為投資者有權在併購交易前從空白支票公司撤資。一旦SPAC跌破發行價,投資者就更有可能這樣做,而許多SPAC的股價現在正處於這樣的水平。目前,在尚未宣布併購交易的空白支票公司中,超過95%的公司股價低於發行價。
投資者的大規模撤資會讓已經上市的空白支票公司手上的現金大幅減少,讓其更難實現業務目標,並可能加劇股價跌勢。"
https://on.wsj.com/3n6JznC
🌻BNPL (buy now pay later)
But most BNPL providers including Affirm, Klarna and Afterpay have been losing money despite breakneck revenue growth as they invest heavily in marketing to win share. Sweden-based Klarna’s credit losses more than doubled in the second quarter. Affirm has projected adjusted operating losses of $50m-$55m for the fiscal year that ended June 30.
The path to profitability for many of these companies was to achieve massive scale, analysts said.
https://www.ft.com/content/ca201a37-a16d-4223-b123-04d38350a972
Pictures: 一葉知秋; from EarningsWhispers
同時也有2部Youtube影片,追蹤數超過15萬的網紅豐富,也在其Youtube影片中提到,主持人:楊應超 第一季-第11集:分析師是如何挑股票的 節目直播時間:週五 14點 本集播出日期:2020.11.20 ⏭ 章節: 00:00 頻道片頭 00:07 開場 01:09 節目片頭 01:27 分析師是如何挑股票的 12:43 Q&A:投資的稅務規劃和手續費很重要 26:48 請繼續提...
hurdle rate 在 文茜的世界周報 Sisy's World News Facebook 的最佳貼文
《BBC》3/7
* 教宗方濟各(Francis)將在伊拉克歷史性訪問的第三天,訪問由伊斯蘭國(IS)激進分子扣押的伊拉克北部地區。
2014年,武裝分子佔領了該地區,摧毀歷史悠久的教堂,並搶劫。自IS2017年被擊敗以來,基督徒陸續返回當地。
教宗將在埃爾比勒市一個足球場舉行彌撒,預計將有10,000人參加。
有些擔心儀式可能會成為冠狀病毒的超級傳播。
過去的一個月中,伊拉克的Covid-19感染急劇上升,加上對教宗來訪的安全擔憂。這是他迄今為止擔任教宗最冒險的一次旅行。
84歲的天主教會領導人及其隨行人員都已接種了疫苗,但伊拉克上週才收到了第一批疫苗。
Pope Francis to visit regions of Iraq once held by Islamic State https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-56309779
* 拜登(Joe Biden)總統幫助美國人應對冠狀病毒大流行的影響的救濟法案,又清除了一大障礙。
儘管每位共和黨參議員都投票反對,但這項耗資1.9億美元(合1.4億英鎊)的計劃於美東時間週六在參議院獲得批准。
由拜登先生的民主黨人領導的眾議院預計將在下週二獲得批准。
拜登將參議院的投票描述為兌現幫助人民的承諾,是“向前邁出的又一大步”。
這是美國一個世紀以來最嚴重的公共衛生危機,已導致近523,000人死亡,2900萬人受到感染,目前的失業率為6.2%。
President Joe Biden's relief bill aimed at helping Americans deal with the impact of the coronavirus pandemic has cleared a major hurdle.
The $1.9tn (£1.4tn) plan was approved in the Senate on Saturday despite every Republican senator voting against.
The House of Representatives - controlled by Mr Biden's Democrats - is expected to approve it next Tuesday.
Mr Biden described the Senate vote as "one more giant step forward" in delivering the promise to help people.
America's worst public health crisis in a century has left nearly 523,000 people dead and 29 million infected, with a current unemployment rate of 6.2%.
Coronavirus: US Senate passes major $1.9tn relief plan https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-56307889
* 巴拉圭總統解雇了三名部長,以回應不滿政府處理冠狀病毒大流行的民眾暴力抗議。
馬里奧·阿卜杜·貝尼特斯(Mario AbdoBenítez)說,教育和婦女事務部長及其幕僚長已被替換。
衛生部長周五辭職。
衛生工作者說,醫院已經用完了治療Covid-19患者的藥物。反對黨的希望是總統阿卜杜先生辭職並召集新的選舉。他們指責他的右翼政府腐敗。
巴拉圭超過165,000例冠狀病毒確診病例,約有3200例死亡。最近幾周病例數目持續增長,使該國的衛生系統瀕臨崩潰。此外,疫苗的推出進展緩慢,最新數據顯示,只有不到0.1%的人口接種疫苗。
The president of Paraguay has sacked three of his ministers in response to violent protests over the government's handling of the coronavirus pandemic.
Mario Abdo Benítez said the ministers for education and women's affairs, and his chief of staff, had been replaced. The health minister resigned on Friday.
Health workers say hospitals have run out of medicine to treat Covid-19 patients.
Opposition parties want Mr Abdo to resign and call new elections.
They accuse his right-wing government of widespread corruption.
Paraguay has registered more than 165,000 cases of coronavirus and about 3,200 deaths. A steady rise in cases in recent weeks has brought the country's health system to the brink of collapse. In addition, the rollout of vaccines has been slow with latest data showing that less than 0.1% of the population has received a jab.
Coronavirus: Paraguay president dismisses ministers https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-56309681
* 緬甸已要求鄰國印度返回拒絕執行命令後越境尋求庇護的幾名警察。印度官員說,這些官員及其家屬最近幾天已經越過邊界。
緬甸當局在一封信中要求他們返回,以“維持印緬友好關係”。
上個月發生軍事政變後,緬甸群眾抗議和罷工至今。
軍警對示威採取了強硬路線,據報至少有55人死亡。
星期六,示威者繼續在全國集結,抵抗軍隊。在最大的城市仰光,警察使用催淚瓦斯,橡皮子彈和眩暈手榴彈驅散人群。
Myanmar has asked neighbouring India to return several police officers who crossed the border seeking refuge after refusing to carry out orders.
Indian officials said the officers and their families had crossed the border in recent days.
In a letter, Myanmar authorities asked for their return "in order to uphold friendly relations".
Myanmar has been gripped by mass protests and strikes following a military coup last month.
Security forces have taken a hard line against the demonstrations and at least 55 deaths have been reported.
On Saturday protesters continued to defy the military, gathering across the country. In the largest city, Yangon, police used tear gas, rubber bullets and stun grenades to disperse crowds, reports said.
Myanmar coup: India asked to return police officers who crossed border https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-56309338
hurdle rate 在 阿堯投資筆記 Facebook 的最讚貼文
最近在複習 Buffett Partnership letters,讀到 1961 特別值得分享
---------
-指數已經被證明很難打敗,1946-1960 我選了可以與指數比較的 38 檔基金,其中 32 檔輸指數
堯:不知道有沒有人發現波克夏剛揭露的 Q4 持股有兩檔指數,但我想那個金額應該不是巴菲特買的。關於指數前陣子寫了這篇(https://reurl.cc/0zLoyK)
-我的三種投資方式:general、work-out、control。這三者佔投資組合的比例在某種程度是預先計畫好的。在 general 這個類別,我們對所投資的公司之政策與做法沒有什麼意見。這種投資我們也不會預期價格與價值什麼時候會回歸。過去幾年,這是我們最大量使用的投資方式,比起其他兩種模式,我們在這裡賺到最多錢。我們通常會配置相當大的部位(5-10%) 在 5-6 家公司,另外 10-15 家配置少量的部位...我們所投的每家公司都有足夠的安全邊際,這些公司加起來成為一包非常安全且有上漲空間的組合。在這類的投資,我們通常在買進價格上做得比賣出價格好得多,我們以私人願意買進該公司的價值去做這些公司的評價
堯:這裡有幾個重點。巴菲特這一時期投資想法很多,可以看到他其實蠻分散的(光在 general 裡就如此)但他其實是以整包資產去做考量,這一包資產他覺得夠安全又有上檔空間。所謂的不要賠錢應該是站在整包資產來看,而非單一個股
-但就算因為某樣東西很便宜,不代表這東西就不會跌。在市場突然的大跌下,這包資產在很大程度上跌幅會與指數一致。長期來說,我覺得整包資產會打敗指數。而在像 1961 這樣大漲的年(指數漲 22.2%)這種投資方式是三種投資方式中表現最好的。當然,這在下跌的市場也是最脆弱的
堯:我有點震驚,發現我過去的理解不完全正確。我過去一直以爲巴菲特說他在市場下跌時能做得更好,是因為他選的投資標的下檔都有保護(當然我猜這一定有)。但就上面來說,巴菲特覺得他能在下跌市場做得更好,是因為他有 work-out 和 control...啊啊啊
-我的第二種投資方式是 work-out(基本上就是套利)我們多少能預測這類型投資的風險、上檔與時程。這類投資提供穩定的報酬,在很大程度上與指數的表現沒什麼關係。在任一時間,我們通常持有 10-15 家這類公司。我可能在這部分使用一些槓桿,會在整體淨值的 25% 以下。在無槓桿的情況下,這類型的投資大概提供 10-20% 的報酬
堯:幾年前我跟 Charles 學長聊天有討論套利,我們的結論是越來越難做。在低利率時代,這類套利的回報已經很難達到 15-20% 的水準,風險報酬比已經下降。但我最近是蠻想重新研究這類手法,我不知道過去台灣一年大概有幾件套利(巴菲特每一時間點都有 10-15 家感覺蠻多的),平均獲利能在多少,我有空來統計一下,如果有人有資料也歡迎提供。會有興趣也是提前做準備,擺現金也許不如擺一籃子套利
-我最後一種投資方式是 control,要嘛我直接控制公司,要嘛我持有大量股份去影響公司決策。這類投資一定要以好幾年的尺度來評價,任何特定一年可能全無表現
堯:巴菲特接著舉 Dempster 的例子。我猜他投資早期一定是關注非常小型的公司,Dempster 只有 150 位股東,巴菲特持有 70%(大略估算一下,市值可能落在 200 萬左右)...我猜他開始想 control 大概就是在創業的前三年,真的是天才
-規模會影響績效嗎?在我們買的一些股票(小型股)規模較大我們會買得較貴,但如果我們買的公司本身大一點,規模的影響不會太大。在我們這個階段,規模大概就是影響 work-out 和一些 generals 吧。但另一方面,Sanborn Map 不可能在我們只有小規模的時候辦到(1959 第一次入主的公司)在 control 這個領域,機會隨著規模而增加,因為競爭者變少加上大規模的公司股全不集中的可能性增加...所以規模到底會不會影響我們的報酬率?我想要看我們在哪個市場吧。我要說,如果我們 1960-1961 管理比較小的規模,我們的成績不會更好
堯:除了天才,I have nothing to add。我也不能完全體會,我的 size 跟他當時完全不在同一個等級
-我相信在一段長時間下,道瓊指數報酬率大概會落在 5-7%
堯:前陣子跟 Eason 絞盡腦汁在想為什麼巴菲特當初設的 hurdle rate 是 6%,Corner of Berkshire 這篇有相當多的猜測(https://reurl.cc/e5qx27)但我想就是上面這個原因,因為他在這個時間點預期道瓊指數報酬率大概會落在 5-7%,所以他選了 6%...很有意思的是,我這次讀才發現巴菲特不是一開始就用 6/25,他在前一年的中報提供他當時給的三個條件:6%/33%、4%/25%、0%/(1/6)...然後以事後來看,道瓊指數 1960-1969 的報酬率是 7.7%,也沒有脫離他預測的太遠
-如果市場一年跌了 35-40%(我覺得在未來十年有相當大的概率,但沒人知道哪一年...事後來看 1973-1974 發生了,雖然時間點晚了一些)我們大概會跌 15-20%
堯:為什麼他可以這麼精確講出 15-20% 這個數字,我想就是因為這就是 generals 部分的跌幅。假設 generals 占他的投組 50%,就會是這樣的數字
hurdle rate 在 豐富 Youtube 的最讚貼文
主持人:楊應超
第一季-第11集:分析師是如何挑股票的
節目直播時間:週五 14點
本集播出日期:2020.11.20
⏭ 章節:
00:00 頻道片頭
00:07 開場
01:09 節目片頭
01:27 分析師是如何挑股票的
12:43 Q&A:投資的稅務規劃和手續費很重要
26:48 請繼續提問:你活著不是為了工作,祝大家早日達到FIRE財務自由
29:14 節目片尾
29:41 頻道片尾
📝 名詞補充:
1. Active Investment:主動投資
2. Passive Investment:被動投資
3. Income Statement (P&L):公司損益表,Profit and Loss
4. Revenue:公司營收或收入
5. Gross Profit Margin:毛利率
6. OPEX (Operating Expense):營運費用
7. Operating Income/Profits:營運利潤
8. EPS:每股獲利
9. Non-Operating Income:非營運,業外收入
10. Cash Flow Statements:現金流量表
11. Cash from Operating:營運收到的現金
12. Working Capital:營運資金
13. Cash from Investing:投資來的現金流
14. Cash from Financing:財務操作來的現金流
15. Balance Sheet:資產負債表
16. ROE:Return on Equity
17. ROA:Return on Asset
18. ROI:Return on Investment
19. Inventory Days:存貨天數
20. Account Receivable:應收帳款
21. Capital Group Study:20年股市投資的回報研究
22. Market Timing:挑進出股市的時機
23. Accenture:美國有名的管理顧問公司
24. Gift Tax:贈與稅
25. Estate Tax:遺產稅
26. ROTH IRA:美國不用上稅的退休投資
27. Capital Gain Tax:資本利得稅
28. Front End Load:買基金時先交的手續費
29. Back End Load:賣基金時後交的手續費
30. No-Load Mutual Fund:不需要付交易收續費的基金
31. Management Expense:每年基金管理的費用
32. Private Equity:私募基金
33. Water Mark:也叫Hurdle Rate,每年收益的最低標準,過了後管理公司才能分到20%的利潤
34. 2/20:每年2%管理費,錢賺過Water Mark後收20%利益
35. Skin in the Game:切膚之痛
36. Exposure:風險
37. Incentive:激勵
38. News Flow:每天的新聞變動
📚 參考書訊:《財務自由的人生:跟著首席分析師楊應超學華爾街的投資技巧和工作效率,40歲就過FIRE的優質生活》 https://eslite.me/w24ad
#楊應超 #財務自由 #股票
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![post-title](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/CcksrWjkOIk/hqdefault.jpg?sqp=-oaymwEbCKgBEF5IVfKriqkDDggBFQAAiEIYAXABwAEG&rs=AOn4CLCjr1LWDVY6YDfBX1LsUQowL-O5Uw)
hurdle rate 在 William Lo Youtube 的最讚貼文
爆發力同發力率(rate of force development RFD) 是息息相關,很多時候我們會將訓練集中放在增強力量這個層面上,但是如果我們忽略吸收力量能力的重要性,然後不斷增加力量,這樣會大大增加受傷的機會。今次為大家介紹一系列的跳襴訓練,希望能夠幫助大家
1⃣增強單腳和雙腳吸收力量能力
2⃣增加在不同運動平面上吸收力量能力
3⃣增強變速能力減少受傷機會
Often we look at relate explosiveness to Rate of Force Development (RFD) While that is important, we often for get that in order to produce a lot of force, we must first be able to absorb a lot of force quickly and most importantly safely. Today we will go over hurdle jump series that will:
1⃣ Teach how to absorb force on two legs and one leg
2⃣ In multiple planes of motion
3⃣ To Change Direction quicker and safer
Add these hurdle jumps into your training, and notice how easy it is to blow by defenders during crossovers and change of direction moves.
![post-title](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/H4fP2D437Co/hqdefault.jpg)
hurdle rate 在 最低預期回報率- 維基百科,自由的百科全書 的相關結果
最低預期資本回報率(英文:Minimum acceptable rate of return),又被稱作停止投資率(英文:Hurdle rate)。它是在已知一個項目風險以及放棄其他項目的機會成本的前提下, ... ... <看更多>
hurdle rate 在 Hurdle Rate Definition - Corporate Finance Institute 的相關結果
A hurdle rate, which is also known as minimum acceptable rate of return (MARR), is the minimum required rate of return or target rate that investors are ... ... <看更多>
hurdle rate 在 Hurdle Rate Definition - Investopedia 的相關結果
Key Takeaways · A hurdle rate is the minimum rate of return required on a project or investment. · Hurdle rates give companies insight into whether they should ... ... <看更多>