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【陸限電危機是引爆點？羅奇：美恐重演70年代停滯通膨】
經濟學家擔憂，美國1970年代的停滯性通膨(stagflation)恐將重演，中國限電危機可能是引爆點。
曾任摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley，通稱大摩)亞洲區董事長的耶魯大學教授羅奇(Stephen Roach)30日接受CNBC專訪時則擔憂，美國也許會走上1970年代停滯性通膨的老路，中國搖搖欲墜的供應鏈如今受到能源價格大漲衝擊，恐將成為引爆點。
🌻
Labor shortage的問題最近常出現在新聞裡, 而labor cost也讓企業頭疼. 前幾天Morgan Stanley有出一篇報告, 主要是說Amazon(AMZN)因為人力支出, 獲利會受壓, 短期內股價可能因此會一直盤整下去:
物流人力成本沉重！大摩砍亞馬遜目標價
https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/4730852
而剛好前兩天的新聞有提到, 透過電商購物的消費者增加, 而其實電商會比傳統的零售業, 需要更多的人力在物流中心, 來做商品的包裝, 運送等:
"Demand for distribution workers has skyrocketed as more consumers shop online, in part because picking, packing and shipping e-commerce orders is more labor-intensive than traditional warehouse operations that distribute wholesale goods or replenish store inventory."
Source: https://www.wsj.com/articles/logistics-operators-raise-pay-enlist-robots-to-meet-holiday-demand-11632657600
🌻每周做的功課與閱讀
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2021/09/blog-post_29.html
🌻如何逢低買進(buy the dip)?
每個人buy the dip的方法不同. 這邊簡單說一下我要buy the dip的話, 會注意哪些事情.
1. 個股所在的類股的表現
2. 均線
3. 大盤
4. 財報發表了沒
5. 股價還有沒有上行的空間(估值高低的問題)
🌻有趣的美股小知識: Why You Should Pay Attention to the Way Management Talks
Nomura(野村)的策略家發現, 當CEO在電話會議中, 用簡單易懂的方式來說明公司業務的話, 公司的股價會比使用複雜語言的CEO的公司股價還高.
Mezrich found that simple really does matter. Using the Gunning Fog index, he ranked companies in the Russell 1000 into tenths, based on their earnings conference calls. Over the past three years, the companies with the simplest language have returned 19.2% annualized, beating the equal-weighted Russell 1000’s 15.7%. Those with the most complex language returned just 13.4%. The complex language portfolio was also more volatile than the simple language portfolio.
“Since senior management delivers an earnings call, simple language may produce more confidence among investors in management’s ability to deliver on their vision,” Mezrich explains. “Hence, simpler language earnings calls can lead to subsequent stock outperformance.”
Source:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/earnings-call-language-stocks-51632526564
Picture: 小鎮的秋景. 圖片來源: Facebook. 攝影者不明.
大摩下修亞馬遜股票目標價，主因是人事成本大增擠壓獲利空間！
#亞馬遜
大摩語出驚人，竟說美國將會「加息7次」。此言論令市場上個個嘩然，大家都應為房價和股市在兩年之內都將面臨大崩潰。以下有兩個論據去證明這個預測的真偽，和若果加息真正發生時我們可以有甚麼對策。
#大摩 #美國加息 #樓市爆破 #經濟崩潰
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