🌻Docusign(DOCU), Crowdstrike(CRWD)財報結果
上週這兩家公司發表財報了.
這兩天看了一下他們的財報結果. Again, 兩家的表現都很好, 但發現分析師給DOCU的調價(往上)幅度比較多, 就好奇研究了一下SaaS公司是怎麼被估值的. 有興趣的話可以看看(從中學習到很多. 非常推薦一讀):
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2021/09/blog-post.html
(By the way, 分析師對CRWD的價格調幅沒那麼大, 主因是成長趨緩了. 而DOCU的free cash flow佔營收比, 以及顧客黏著力在這季創了新高, 是讓分析師按讚的幾個原因).
關於CRWD: "The Street is already modeling revenue growth deceleration in 2022 to 36%, down from 60% expected in 2021, which on its own might prove a hurdle for a stock already trading at a high multiple," said Bank of America analyst Tal Liani in a report.
分析師對於DOCU的評價:
• 11位buy; 給的價格分別是: $310, $320 (x2), $330 (x2), $340 (x2), $345, $350, $350, $389
• 給Buy的分析師的評語:
o Baird: The analyst continues to view them as a best in class way to play digital transformation trends with strong growth, cash flow and profitability, and a strong competitive position. Power said DocuSign remains one of his top long-term compounding growth ideas.
o Citi: While slightly shy of the double-digit billings beat in recent quarters, DocuSign still delivered a solid 8% beat to Q2 billings, which grew 47% year-over-year, Radke tells investors in a research note.
o Evercore ISI: he calls "another strong quarter." While some may have wanted to see more aggressive Q3 billings guidance, he believes estimates "continue to leave room for upside," Materne said.
o JMP Securities: While revenue growth decelerated to 50% from 58% in Q1, the company is the clear leader in electronic signature and the broader system of agreement having crossed over 1M customers with a $2B run rate this quarter, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that he sees lots of room for growth as DocuSign targets a $50B total addressable market.
o Needham: The analyst commented, "Docusign reported another strong quarter in 2QF22 with typical DOCU upside to revenue and profitability. Sales metrics and growth decelerated Q/Q, as we expected against a massive pandemic quarter, but at a much slower rate than we believe much of the Street was anticipating. 65k net new customers was lower than the 70k - 90 range of CY20 but was still more than 2x greater than any pre-pandemic quarter, highlighting a strong end-market driving 47% billings growth against a strong comp. Commentary on incremental Agreement Cloud demand was positive, suggesting an additional growth tailwind combined with solid international can further aid 2HF22. Although DOCU shares could be lower near-term due to weak 2H OpMg guidance, we think this guidance is conservative, as the recent OM was greater than the pre-pandemic level even with tough comps."
o RBC Capital: The quarter highlighted the sustainability of the company's tailwinds post-pandemic as most of its underlying metrics such as billings and net revenue retention were solid, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that the traction with CLM and Notary was also "impressive".
分析師對於CRWD的評價:
• 12位buy; 給的價格分別是: $300, $310 (x2), $313, $315 (x2) , $305, $320, $325, $330 (x2), $340
• 1位給hold: $280 (from $220 by J.P. Morgan(same))
• 給Buy的分析師的評語:
o Baird: The analyst believes the company has significant room for growth with core modules, opportunities with Humio and in cloud workload security, among others, should help drive a continuation of strong growth over a long time horizon.
o BTIG: The company's "strong" Q2 results "cleared every hurdle", even though the buy-side benchmarks may have been slightly higher, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Powell adds that Crowdstrike is clearly gaining share in its core endpoint security target market at a rapid pace and gaining traction with new products across multiple categories.
o Canaccord: The analyst said the stock is down from its recent highs, and he thinks the re-rating creates a more favorable entry point for longer-oriented investors for a foundational security name. He views Crowdstrike as a long-term secular winner in security due to its native cloud platform advantage versus closely held peers in endpoint security combined with platform expansion into tangential segments to capture greater share of security budgets.
o Goldman Sachs: CrowdStrike last night delivered "another beat and raise quarter as the company benefited from another quarter of elevated demand," Essex said. But it traded lower following net new annual recurring revenue growth guidance that was slightly less than investors had hoped for. Essex, nonetheless, said the quarter demonstrated CrowdStrike's "ability to continue to go down market efficiently."
o JMP Securities: The analyst notes the company's Q2 annualized recurring revenue of $1.34B topping his estimate of $1.30B, with "sustained" 70% ARR and revenue growth along with margin upside seen as key highlights for the quarter. Suppiger adds that the metrics reflect Crowdstrike's "strong execution and robust demand environment".
o Mizuho: "very good" fiscal Q2 results. The annual recurring revenue growth of 70% year-over-year "was strong and still nicely surpassed" the Street's 65%-66% estimate, Moskowitz tells investors in a research note. He believes "strong execution can propel" Crowdstrike's stock higher.
o Piper Sandler: The company's metrics "outperformed across the board" in Q2 with 70% annual recurring revenue and revenue growth and record net new customer adds in the quarter, Owens tells investors in a research note.
o RBC Capital: Hedberg adds that CrowdStrike's record pipeline entering Q3 should continue to fuel the company's "land-and-expand" momentum.
o Stifel: Q2 results that he said "exceeded consensus estimates across all major financial metrics." He continues to believe that Crowdstrike's growth opportunity "remains in the early days" despite the company's scale given continued share capture within its core endpoint security market and incremental module adoption on the Falcon Platform, Reback tells investors.
o UBS: the company reported "pretty good" Q2 results against high expectations.
🌻趨勢: 跨境電商 Cross-border commerce
Morgan Stanley:
From our perspective, we think many are underestimating what the cross-border eCommerce demand could ultimately be, once key friction points like FX rates, tax and duties, shipping, language, etc are smoothed—all issues that Global-E directly addresses.
Cross-border ecommerce brings new, high-yield volume: We think elevated levels of cross-border ecommerce (ex-travel) is a structural shift thathas yet to be fully contemplated in MA (and V)'s long-term forecasts. MA's cross-border CNP ex-travel volume was 69% above 2019's level in 2Q and 63% higher in 1Q. Strength reflects both broader ecommerce adoption plus globalization of commerce, as marketplaces and services that reduce cross-border friction (such as those from GLBE) make international online ordering more readily adopted. Early data at V suggests greater cross-border ecommerce spend is persisting even in areas with pre-pandemic levels of international travel. Cross-border transactions also come at a higher yield, making us more optimistic that the trend can bring incremental long-term growth to the networks.
產業的潮流是有連貫性的. 疫情讓電商更發達後, 接下來應該就是加速電商跨境了. 跨境的話, 有很多問題需要解決(稅率, 語言, etc.) 這就需要有公司來做整合的動作. 這種跨境, 也可以想像是omnichannel的一種呈現.
Harley Finkelstein (President of Shopify): "I mean I think commerce in 2021 is cross-border."
🌻SPAC熱潮退卻，初創市值蒸發750億美元
"SPAC熱潮已經退卻。分析顯示，在2月中旬以前完成合併的137家SPAC的總市值已經蒸發25%，市值回落幅度上個月一度超過1,000億美元。"
"像貝萊德(BlackRock Inc., BLK)和富達投資(Fidelity Investments Inc.)這類企業管理的基金，以及許多對沖基金、養老金管理公司和其他一些投資者，都在SPAC的回落中遭受了衝擊，他們在去年年底開始的熱潮中競相投資SPAC。其中許多基金由於在價格還很低的時候就早早入場，所以現在仍坐擁可觀收益。事實上，SPAC市值仍有約2,500億美元，高於一年前的約1,000億美元，反映出這期間股價上漲和新公司上市的影響。
但即便如此，今年年初令人炫目的回報還是讓許多後來者做了接盤俠，扎堆投資所謂穩賺不賠的領域，其永恆的風險可見一斑。在過去的幾個月裡，一些投資者眼睜睜看著帳面財富縮水。"
"股價下跌會在SPAC領域形成惡性循環，因為投資者有權在併購交易前從空白支票公司撤資。一旦SPAC跌破發行價，投資者就更有可能這樣做，而許多SPAC的股價現在正處於這樣的水平。目前，在尚未宣布併購交易的空白支票公司中，超過95%的公司股價低於發行價。
投資者的大規模撤資會讓已經上市的空白支票公司手上的現金大幅減少，讓其更難實現業務目標，並可能加劇股價跌勢。"
https://on.wsj.com/3n6JznC
🌻BNPL (buy now pay later)
But most BNPL providers including Affirm, Klarna and Afterpay have been losing money despite breakneck revenue growth as they invest heavily in marketing to win share. Sweden-based Klarna’s credit losses more than doubled in the second quarter. Affirm has projected adjusted operating losses of $50m-$55m for the fiscal year that ended June 30.
The path to profitability for many of these companies was to achieve massive scale, analysts said.
https://www.ft.com/content/ca201a37-a16d-4223-b123-04d38350a972
Pictures: 一葉知秋; from EarningsWhispers
on cloud評價 在 [問題] 有跑友穿瑞士Cloud雲端跑鞋嗎? - 看板Road_Running 的推薦與評價
今天下午利用跑不完的空檔,衝了一趟某家大店.
目的就是想試試Cloud雲端跑鞋.
試穿了流星雲,輕量,感覺很Q彈.
目前我的現役跑鞋是Hoka Tracer跟Saucony Kinvara 8.
Hoka的緩衝避震實在讓人非常著迷.
不過看鞋底,應該非常不耐磨.
不知道有沒有跑友穿Cloud,
那種Q感好像也不曾在Mizono,Asics,Saucony,Brooks裡面感受過.
說個八卦:我問店員說流星雲的足差好像是6mm,會不會讓著地點往腳跟移.
(Hoka 足差2mm,著地點不偏不倚剛好在拇指球位置.
老實說,跑起來真的非常舒服)
店員回答:可是我穿起來是平的耶~~~
我心裡先是OS:你該不會以為足差是踩高蹺吧?!
我又繼續6mm會不會讓著地點後移,他說這看個人習慣.
我心裡又OS了:你是當真不懂赤足鞋?
難怪,每次經過這家大店都是門可羅雀.
後來他拿Cloud鞋給我試穿.
一語不發就去忙他自己的事,完全不理我了.
當下我試穿後,只忙著記住感覺,然後回來發文詢問跑友心得.
真心謝謝各位.
--
雅各-1:19
我親愛的弟兄們, 這是你們所知道的.
但你們各人要快快的聽, 慢慢的說, 慢慢的動怒.
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 220.134.163.251
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Road_Running/M.1556700658.A.10E.html
那個店員後來聽我講足差跟著地點完.
好像不大高興?
只講了一句:反正你知道自己要什麼就好....
真的很無言阿~~~
※ 編輯: Jochum (220.134.163.251), 05/01/2019 17:27:21
不管什麼原因...
這樣的人當店員,而且那家店的鞋款很多都兩三千起跳..
消費者以為自己到了一個專業店家買鞋.
殊不知...
況且自己啥跑法是自個兒的事.
既然當了店員就該拿出一些東西來.
救我我的認知,著地點很大一部分取決於足差.
重點是他的回答很清楚顯示他不懂什麼是足差.
這絕非感受問題...
消費者如果對此毫無自知,下次就是自己當Meh~~~了.
※ 編輯: Jochum (220.134.163.251), 05/01/2019 18:25:30
Huang大是強者.
自然不必研究.
我才是弱弱的年過半百阿北..
害怕運動傷害,只好盡可能改善許多跑步相關姿勢.
真的嗎?
我覺得他對我來說相對算軟的了.
※ 編輯: Jochum (220.134.163.251), 05/01/2019 20:19:02
真謝謝您.
您有穿過流星雲嗎?
從重量來看,流星雲跟tracer差不多.
今天很短暫地試穿,
那個Q彈感讓人印象深刻.
那種Q跟tracer不大一樣,
cloud有點像彈簧,tracer比較像歐式麵包.
好的.
謝謝您.
調整跑姿有點辛苦.
目前跑得順就不像再動了.
偏偏看到新鞋還是會心動.
※ 編輯: Jochum (220.134.163.251), 05/01/2019 22:44:09
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