【台灣防疫成效 #國際政要 都肯定👍👍👍】
第二波移入疫情強勢回流 🌀
看到確診人數增加
相信有在追指揮中心記者會的大家
內心不免七上八下
但只要我們 #謹慎應對 持續落實 #防疫工作
相信還是有機會守住J一波‼️
雖然還是會擔心
但蒐集癖小編決定要再發一篇落落長的文
讓各位看看世界各國的政要大咖
如何讚 #台灣 目前為止的防疫模式 👏👏👏
#我們不害怕雨淋
#因為我們知道大雨之後會有彩虹 🌈
#團結一心 #正向防疫
#台灣加油 💪
As the coronavirus pandemic continues, we'll endeavour to remain prudent in our epidemic prevention measures. We believe we can stem the tide.
To reinstill some confidence, we've collected a series of quotes from politicians and ministers around the world, praising the #TaiwanModel as part of the fight against the #COVID19 #WuhanCoronavirus. Read what they had to say below!
《亞太地區》
#紐西蘭 New Zealand 🇳🇿
3/15 ─ 紐西蘭總理阿爾登:「我們將緊密遵循相當接近於台灣的模式,他們(台灣政府)針對公眾集會所建立的因應架構,是相當成功的。我們將以它為根據,來設定我們的標準。」
March 15 - Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said, in a Q+A interview on Sunday, that officials were looking at tailored criteria for events that may need to be cancelled, such as whether people would be in close proximity to one another.
“We're going to follow, pretty closely, the Taiwanese model. They worked up a framework for mass gatherings that's been quite successful,” she said.
#日本 Japan 🇯🇵
3/12 ─ 日本台灣交流協會代表泉裕泰:「我相信台灣的真知灼見可與世界各國廣泛共享,並對苦於遭受傳染蔓延的其他國家與地區做出巨大的貢獻。」
March 12 - Japan's chief representative in Taiwan, Hiroyasu Izumi, stated that he believes Taiwan's insights can be widely shared with other countries in the world and make great contributions to other countries and regions suffering from the spread of infection.
《亞非地區》
#以色列 Israel 🇮🇱
3/14 ─ 以色列總理尼坦雅胡:「順帶一提,這個方法已經在台灣試過了,可能很成功。以色列是少數國家當中,有這個能力做的。我們將採用這個方法。」
March 14 - Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said it was not an easy choice to make and described the virus as an “invisible enemy that must be located.” He said Israel would follow similar methods used by Taiwan.
3/14 ─ 以色列前總理巴拉克:「以色列可以對抗新冠病毒,但必須像台灣一樣反應快速。」
March 14 - Former prime minister Ehud Barak stated that Israel can fight against the novel coronovirus, but that it must react as swiftly as Taiwan.
《拉美地區》
#尼加拉瓜 Nicaragua🇳🇮
3/11 ─ 尼加拉瓜副總統穆麗優:「我們得知台灣政府及人民實行了成功的防疫模式,我們已向台灣駐尼大使提出請求,期盼台灣與我們分享經驗,因為台灣不僅成功防制傳染,且維持人民秩序免於慌亂,確實值得學習。」
March 11 - La vicepresidenta de Nicaragua, Rosario Murillo, declaró: "Nosotros hemos conocido el Modelo exitoso de contención que puso en práctica el Gobierno y el Pueblo de la República de China(Taiwán), y hemos pedido a su Embajador aquí, que nos presenten ese Modelo exitoso, porque han logrado no solo contener, sino también mantener a la población en un estado que no esté de pánico." (The vice president of Nicaragua, Rosario Murillo, stated, "We are aware of the successful model of prevention that the government and the people of Taiwan have put into practice, and we've asked the Taiwanese ambassador to make a presentation on this successful model, because they've not only managed to contain the virus, but they've kept their population from panicking.")
#聖文森 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines🇻🇨
3/12 ─ 聖文森衛生部長布朗:「台灣因『一個中國』原則不被承認為獨立國家,因此未被納入參與「世界衛生大會」(WHA),台灣距離中國僅為海峽之隔,然而疫情爆發至今卻僅有少數確診病例,我已正式致函何大使尋求台灣的協助以對抗聖國疫情。」
March 12 - "It’s quite remarkable that they’re just 81 miles from mainland China and whereas coronavirus in mainland China has been spiralling out of control...That’s incredible,” Health minister Luke Brown said. Taiwan is not a part of the World Health Assembly as it is not recognised as being an independent country under the One-China policy. Browne said the ambassador has mentioned some of the measures that Taiwan has taken, some of which he believes will work in the Vincentian context while others may not.
#聖露西亞 Saint Lucia🇱🇨
3/11 ─ 聖露西亞衛生部長艾瑟柯:「目前全球正共同對抗來自中國武漢的新型冠狀病毒,聖露西亞政府藉此機會讚許臺灣採取有效率且具成效的防疫措施,並提議與露國緊密合作防疫。」
March 11 - “As the world is fighting the COVID-19 Coronavirus originated from Wuhan, China, the Government of Saint Lucia wishes to take this opportunity to commend Taiwan for its efficient and efficacious measures, and its offer to work closely with Saint Lucia to contain the pandemic,” said Health Minister Mary Isaac.
#貝里斯 Belize🇧🇿
2/4 ─ 貝里斯衛生部長馬林:「貝國政府及衛生部肯定台灣關鍵的公衛措施,包括對隔離案例進行電子監控、口罩及其他物資供應,強化防疫工作。」
Feb. 4 - Minister of Health, Hon. Pablo Marin: “The Government of Belize, and by extension the Ministry of Health, applauds Taiwan’s key public health measures that include electronic monitoring of quarantined cases and the provision of masks and other items to support the prevention efforts.”
#巴拉圭 Paraguay🇵🇾
3/17 ─ 巴拉圭參議員法切提:「儘管與WHO無任何合作關係,台灣仍向前行…台灣也因此能夠成功防堵新冠病毒。」
March 17 - Fernando Silva Facetti, Paraguayan politician: "A PESAR DE LA NULA COOPERACIÓN DE LA @opsoms, #TAIWAN SIGUE ADELANTE... Así es como Taiwán logró contener el brote de #coronavirus" (Despite the lack of cooperation from the WHO, Taiwan continues to progress... This is how Taiwan managed to contain the coronavirus.)
#委內瑞拉 Venezuela🇻🇪
3/13 ─ 委內瑞拉臨時政府代表楊杰斯議員:「感謝情同手足的台灣人民贈交我們防疫所需的口罩及酒精。Taiwan Can Help!」
March 13 - Jesús M. Yánez M., Venezuelan politician: "Gracias a el hermano pueblo de Taiwan nos encontramos entregando tapa boca y kits de alcohol, denunciando la falta de prevención y de medidas acordes contra el COVIDー19 Taiwan Can Help" (Thanks to our brothers and sisters in Taiwan, we find ourselves with face masks and alcohol kits, denouncing the lack of prevention and appropriate measures against COVID-19. Taiwan Can Help.)
3/15 ─ 委內瑞拉駐西班牙大使艾卡利:「台灣及早警覺,並已阻擋了疫情擴散。」
March 15 - Antonio Ecarri B., Ambassador of Venezuela in Spain: "Taiwan se alarmó y frenó su expansión." (Taiwan was alarmed and curbed the spread.)
#阿根廷 Argentina 🇦🇷
3/11 ─ 阿根廷國會議員康帕紐利:「台灣是成功控制疫情的模範。」
March 11 - Marcela Campagnoli, National Deputy in Argentina: "Taiwan es un ejemplo de como lo han controlado." (Taiwan is an example of how to control it.)
3/16 ─ 阿根廷國際關係委員會秘書長桑提巴聶茲:「認為威權政府防疫工作做得比民主國家好,這個想法是錯的。台灣、韓國及新加坡做得非常好,他們都是民主國家。」
March 16 - Francisco de Santibañes, Secretary General of the Argentine Council for International Relations: "Sería un error pensar que los gobiernos autoritarios actuaron mejor que las democracias a la hora de controlar el coronavirus. Corea del Sur, Singapur y Taiwán lo hicieron muy bien y son democracias." (It would be a mistake to think that authoritarian governments act better than democracies in curbing the coronavirus. South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan did it very well and they're democracies.)
#哥倫比亞 Colombia🇨🇴
3/12 ─ 哥倫比亞內科醫師學會前主席希尼爾:「看看台灣,從全球確診統計圖表中漸漸消失,並對照其他亞洲國家防疫進展。他們比其他國家聰明嗎?不,是因為他們比較有組織、守紀律!」
March 12 - Juan Senior, ex-president of the Colombian Association of Internal Medicine: "Miren la evolución de Taiwán, desaparece del panorama y como evoluciona la epidemia en países asiáticos. Son más inteligentes que todos? No, son más organizados y disciplinados!!!" (Look how things have gone in Taiwan, they're out of the picture now and how the epidemic has developed in asian countries. Are they smarter than everyone else? No, they're more organized and more disciplined!!!)
#巴拿馬 Panama 🇵🇦
3/11 ─ 巴拿馬前駐台大使馬締斯:「台灣向世界展現,他們運用2003年抗煞所學到的經驗,準備好對抗新冠疫情。」
March 11 - Dr. Alfredo Martiz, former Ambassador of Panama in Taiwan: "Lo que Taiwán puede enseñar al mundo sobre la lucha contra el coronavirus Análisis: Taiwán aprovechó las lecciones aprendidas durante el brote de SARS de 2003, y esta vez su gobierno y su pueblo estaban preparados" (What Taiwan can teach the world about the fight against the coronavirus. Analysis: Taiwan took the lessons learned during the SARS outbreak of 2003 and this time its government and its people were ready.)
《歐洲》
#捷克 Czech Republic🇨🇿
3/15 ─ 捷克總理巴比斯:「政府決定改變中央危機應變中心的定位及人員調度,仿照如同媒體所報導台灣的因應做法。」 March 15 - Prime Minister Andrej Babis: “The government decided to change the status of the Central Crisis Staff, where the crisis staff will be modeled, as we read in the media and it was in Taiwan.”
#丹麥 Denmark🇩🇰
3/18 ─ 丹麥前總理拉斯穆森:「台灣利用大數據、透明、由中央指揮的防疫作為奏效,值得世界各國學習。現在是時候告訴中國,確有地方可以討論地緣政治的,但不是在世界衛生組織。」 March 18 - In his March 18 piece in Time Magazine, former prime minister of Denmark Anders Fogh Rasmussen, stated "After the first notifications at the end of 2019, Taipei swiftly deployed a combination of measures to identify and contain the virus, including the use of big data to help contain potential cases."
#法國 France🇫🇷
3/5 ─ 前法國衛生部長及外交部長杜斯特:「檢視中央集權與非中央集權國家決策模式的差異十分有意思。台灣雖緊鄰中國卻可能是受武漢肺炎死亡率最低及受影響最輕的國家,其防疫成果完全令人難以置信,是為出色的危機管理。」
March 5 - Former French health and foreign minister Philippe Douste-Blazy said, "Ce qui est très intéressant en regardant les différents pays, c’est la centralisation ou la non-centralisation des décisions. Et on s’aperçoit que par exemple Taiwan est probablement le pays où il y a le moins de létalité et le pays le moins touché alors que c’est extrêmement près de la Chine. Le résultat est absolument invraisemblable. C’est une magnifique gestion de crise." (What is quite interesting with different countries, is centralization vs non-centralization of decisions. And one realizes that, for example, Taiwan is probably the country where the mortality rate is the lowest and the least affected country despite its extreme proximity to China. The result is absolutely implausible. It’s wonderful crisis management.)
3/7 ─ 法國國民議會友臺小組主席瑟賽希尼:「臺灣是處理武漢肺炎疫情的典範。」
March 7 - The chair of the French National Assembly's France-Taiwan Parliamentary Friendship Group, Jean François Cesarini, stated "Taïwan : Exemplaire dans sa gestion de l’épidémie du Coronavirus." (Taiwan: an excellent model for the management of the coronavirus epidemic.)
3/6 ─ 法國國民議會友臺小組副主席拉赫迪耶:「臺灣堪稱處理武漢肺炎危機的典範。」
March 6 - The deputy chair of the French National Assembly's France-Taiwan Parliamentary Friendship Group, Laure de La Raudière, stated "Gestion exemplaire de Taiwan de la crise du Coronavirus." (Taiwan's exemplary management of the coronavirus crisis.)
#義大利 Italy🇮🇹
3/16 ─ 義大利前外交部長德爾其:「台灣可能是第一個向WHO報告新冠病毒人傳人的國家,而且早在中國和WHO承認之前。顯然地,台灣因為北京施壓,被排除在世衛組織之外已有兩年之久。」
March 16 - Former foreign minister, Giulio Terzi: "Taiwan potrebber esser stato primo Paese a comunicare alla OMS che coronavirus COVID19 si stava trasmettendo da uomo a uomo.Molto prima che Cina e OMS lo ammettessero. Ovviamente, per volere Pechino, Taipei subisce esclusione da OMS da due anni." (Taiwan may have been the first country to report to WHO that coronavirus COVID19 was spreading from amongst humans, long before China and WHO admitted it. Obviously, at the behest of Beijing, Taipei has been excluded from WHO for two years.)
3/19 ─ 義大利北聯黨外交事務首席法拉利,轉推蔡總統「台美簽署防疫聯合夥伴關係聲明」推文:「這是向中國,也是向世界傳達的重要訊息。」
March 19: Lega Nord head of foreign affairs in Lombardy, Max Ferrari: "Coronavirus. Importante messaggio alla Cina e al mondo da Taiwan e Usa." (Coronavirus. Important message to China and the world from Taiwan and the USA.)
#歐盟 EU🇪🇺
3/14 ─ 歐洲議會議員暨中國關係代表團團長包瑞翰:「在這次疫情危機中,台灣在拯救生命方面做得很好。為什麼不邀請他們充分參與國際呢? 為什麼WHO不這樣做?因為北京玩弄民族主義政治,犧牲人民的利益。」
March 14 - “Taiwan is doing a great job with saving lives in this corona crisis. Why not acknowledge that and invite them to participate fully in international efforts? Why doesn't WHO do it? Because Beijing is playing nationalist politics at people's expense,” said Reinhard Bütikofer
#英國 UK 🇬🇧
3/13 ─ 英國前衛生大臣杭特表示,政府應採取更積極的行動,包括禁止探視養老院的長者。他認為,英國應該像是泰國和台灣等已控制住疫情的國家一樣,採取行動。
March 13 - Jeremy Hunt, the UK former health secretary: "Countries like Thailand and Taiwan had controlled the outbreak by taking such action. People will be concerned we are not moving sooner on social distancing."
#瑞典 Sweden🇸🇪
2/18 ─ 瑞典國會議員溫和黨主席席德斐:「從長遠來看,世衛組織不願將台灣納入扼止新冠病毒傳播及由該病毒所引起的傳播的任務,是完全站不住腳的,並且從很多面向來看是適得其反,例如從醫學和經濟角度。」
Feb. 18 - Moderate Party MP Margareta Cederfelt pointed out that “WHO’s unwillingness to include Taiwan in its work with limiting the spread of the coronavirus and stopping infections caused by the virus in the long-run, is indefensible and counterproductive seen from several perspectives, for example from a medical and economic perspective.”
#德國 Germany🇩🇪
3/13 ─ 德國自民黨主席國會議員布本多弗:「有一個國家在抗疫上脫穎而出,運用明確的策略及冷靜的態度有效對抗新冠肺炎,這個國家就是臺灣。」
March 13 - Chair of the district association Mühldorf am Inn of the FDP Bavaria Sandra Maria Bubendorfe: "Bei meiner 3. Rede im Deutschen Bundestag zum Thema Zivil und Katastrophenschutz in Deutschland vergangen Freitag, war es mir ein besonderes Bedürfnis Taiwan hervorzuheben, das gezeigt hat wie man mit klaren Strategien und kühlen Kopf auf die Gefahr des Corona Virus antworten kann und damit die Ausbreitung deutlich erschwert und verlangsamt wird." (During my third speech in the German Bundestag on civil and civil protection in Germany last Friday, I felt a need to highlight Taiwan, which showed how to respond to the dangers of the coronavirus with a clear strategy and a cool head, and thus significantly slowed its spread.)
#荷蘭 The Netherlands🇳🇱
3/18 ─ 荷蘭前中央銀行主席維林克:「臺灣防疫預警作為,是這個擁有約2400萬居民,且每年接受約300萬中國旅客往訪的國家,迄今得以有效控制疫情的關鍵作為。」
March 18 - The former head of the Dutch central bank stated that with its 24 million strong population and 3 million annual tourists from China, Taiwan has unrolled effective key measures to curb the spread of the epidemic.
3/18 ─ 荷蘭50 Plus黨眾議員兼主席克羅及民主論壇黨眾議員兼主席伯德特:「台灣是成功例子」 無黨籍眾議員哈加:「台灣大量檢測與居家隔離,成功控制疫情,為何荷蘭不學習?」
March 18 - The leaders of the 50PLUS party and the Forum for Democracy, Henk Krol and Thierry Beaudet, stated that Taiwan has provided a successful model. Independent Dutch MP Wybren van Haga stated that Taiwan has been testing on a large scale and enforcing home quarantines, successful measures in curbing the epidemic and asked why the Netherlands wasn't learning from their example.
#瑞士 Switzerland 🇨🇭
3/10 ─ 瑞士國會下議員瓦爾德:「臺灣對抗新冠病毒具特別成效。」 March 10 - Swiss National Councillor Nicolas Walder said Taiwan's response to the novel coronavirus has been particularly effective.
#葡萄牙 Portugal🇵🇹
3/15 ─ 葡萄牙前人民黨黨揆暨資深媒體評論家波塔斯:「台灣承襲2003年對抗SARS經驗,成功壓抑疫情曲線峰值,值得葡國作為借鏡。」
March 15 - Former Deputy Prime Minister of Portugal and media personality Paulo Portas stated that Taiwan's experience in fighting SARS in 2003 allowed it to be successful in flattening the curve, providing a model Portugal can learn from.
3/18 ─ 葡萄牙國會友臺小組歐利維拉:「台灣病例出現雖早,卻在努力下獲得很好的控制,台灣防疫措施值得肯定及學習。」
March 18 - Chair of the Portugal-Taiwan Parliamentary Friendship Group Paulo Rios de Oliveira stated that although cases in Taiwan started to appear quite early on, they've controlled it very well with a lot of effort. Taiwan's epidemic control measures should be praised and studied.
#西班牙 Spain🇪🇸
3/13 ─ 西班牙前國會議員瓦紐費瑞:「這些措施證明台灣公衛模式有效,包括世界上最先進的醫衛系統、自2003年抗煞以來所累積的廣泛防疫經驗等。」
March 13 - Francisco Vañó Ferre, a former member of the Spanish Parliament: "Estas y otras medidas prueban la eficacia del modelo sanitario de Taiwán, que cuenta con uno de los más avanzados sistemas de salud del mundo y con amplia experiencia en la lucha contra enfermedades contagiosas tras haber sufrido la epidemia del SARS en 2003." (These and other measures prove the efficacy of the health model of Taiwan, which has one of the most advanced health systems in the world and a wealth of experience in the fight against contagious diseases, after having suffered from the SARS epidemic in 2003.)
#匈牙利 Hungary🇭🇺
3/15 ─ 匈牙利醫師學會:「在中國其他省份和其他亞洲國家,例如台灣和新加坡等,已經能夠預防感染的傳播。」
March 15 - The Hungarian Medical Chamber stated “In other provinces of China and other Asian countries (eg Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore) have been able to prevent the spread of the infection.”
北美:
#美國 US🇺🇸
2/5 ─ 美國前衛生部長派司:「台灣已經證明其防疫行動極為負責且透明,特別是在醫學和科學領域。最近有幸到訪台灣,台灣協助研發疫苗或以其他方式協助拯救生命,並促進人類對抗病毒的能力及情報,此刻尤顯出色。」
Feb. 5 – US former secretary of health and human services Tom Price: "Taiwan has shown itself to be extremely responsible and transparent in its actions, especially in the area of medicine and science. Having had the privilege of visiting recently, the capacity of Taiwan to help formulate a vaccine or assist in other ways to help save lives and advance human engagement and intelligence at this time is remarkable."
#加拿大 Canada🇨🇦
3/6 ─ 加拿大前國務部長契爾格:「將台灣排除在世衛組織之外,會讓新冠病毒對其國民和世界其他地區變得更加危險。」
March 6 - Canadian former secretary of state David Kilgour: “Excluding Taiwan from contact with WHO makes COVID-19 more dangerous for its nationals and the rest of the world.”
同時也有5部Youtube影片,追蹤數超過2萬的網紅興趣使然釣魚人Woody,也在其Youtube影片中提到,感恩台灣醫療團隊以及全球的醫療團隊你們辛苦了~~希望你們能持續為台灣及全球的疫情找到治療的方式,保佑全球的人可以平安度過這波疫情~~感恩 Hey everyone, I am WOODY. I am a fishing youtuber, Due to the spread of the Wuh...
「pandemic vs epidemic」的推薦目錄:
pandemic vs epidemic 在 英國的另類日常 Facebook 的最佳解答
第2,4,10 點 特別有用。
(節錄其中幾點,我稍為加了點bullets和分段,方便睇d)
//2. 傳染力較高?
之前某家新聞訪問某個中研院資深研究員, 說SARS-CoV-2比當年SARS傳染力還要高, 基本上有嚴重的誤導, 很難想像他會犯這樣的錯誤, 不知是否是記者見獵心喜然後有誤解, 新聞裡說SARS-CoV-2的傳染力指數為2.5, 而當年SARS為0.4
🔴Basic Reproduction Number (R0) (https://www.livescience.com/how-far-will-coronavirus-spread.html):
指的是假設在一個族群 (population) 裡所有的人都能被感染的情況下, 單一患者能傳染給其他人的人數。
R0=2.5, 代表一個患者可以傳給2.5人。
當年SARS在疫情早期的R0值為2.9, 到晚期才為0.4, 而原因就是因為有控制疫情(隔離還有SARS在宿主死亡後難以生存, 等等), 疫病早期在無藥可用也沒有疫苗時隔離很重要的原因就是為了要把R0值壓到小於1, 代表一個患者只能傳染給不到一個人, 疫情才算控制, Kate Winslet 在電影Contagion解釋得很清楚
看看其他病毒有多可怕
SARS-CoV-2 R0= 2.2-2.5
HIV R0= 2-4
Ebola 伊波拉 R0= ~ 1.5-2.5
MERS 中東呼吸道症候群 R0= ~0.5-1
Seasonal Influenza 季節性流感 R0= 2-3
1918 H1N1 Influenza 西班牙流感 R0=1.8-2
Smallpox 天花 R0=5-7
Polio 小兒麻痹 R0=5.5-6
Measles 麻疹 R0=15-17 (美國在一堆人不打麻疹疫苗呀~)
另外, 所有的R0值都是用不同模型預估的, 也會隨著輸入的數據量或不是完全客觀的參數 (如人口密度或病毒估計的潛伏期等等) 有差, “傳染力“在科學上不見得精確
3. 要增強免疫力?
不見得也無法。
2003年SARS的經驗發現許多重症病人的病理特徵或死因是因為病毒感染引起過強的免疫反應, 免疫細胞不斷釋放細胞激素造成細胞激素風暴 (cytokine storm), 攻擊肺泡細胞而使肺纖維化 (pulmonary fibrosis), 肺吸不到氧氣, 而這肺纖維化是不可逆的, 很多患者就算後來康復其肺依舊有損傷肺活量下降。
根據目前病人的免疫反應, SARS-CoV-2也有類似的現象, 台灣目前只有案1有肺纖維化問題, 可能一方面是輕症較多, 不過data還不夠多, 有待觀察
另外, 人類基本上針對特定疾病能直接增強免疫力的方法只有疫苗或是現在熱門的癌症免疫療法, 其他都是旁門左道
4. 致死率。
不論是台灣或是國際上的新聞常誤用 “致死率 (mortality)”, 中文翻譯的也不準確, 許多科學家也常搞錯
🔴Morbidity: 一個族群 (population) 裡得到此疾病的人數 (以每 100,000人為單位), morbidity在除了流感外的疾病很少用了
🔴Mortality: 一個族群 (population) 裡因為得到此疾病而死亡的人數
🔴Case-Fatality: 在所有得到此疾病的人裡死亡的人數
也就是說, 假設台灣有100,000人, 100人得到COVID-19, 其中有10人死亡
Morbidity= 0.1% (比較正確的講法應該為每十萬人有100人, 這裡用百分比比較直觀)
Mortality= 0.01%
Case-Fatality= 10%
目前一般新聞所指的應該是Case-Fatality Ratio, 但似乎都搞混這幾個差異或是誤用為Mortality
Case-Fatality Ratio (CFR)(患者致死率)
SARS-CoV-2 CFR= 2%
SARS-CoV CFR= 9-11% (2003年SARS)
MERS-CoV CFR= 36% (2012年 中東呼吸道症候群)
Ebola virus CFR= 45-50% (伊波拉病毒, 某個strain的Ebola virus可到70%)
❗致死率看起來雖然比其他的冠狀病毒家族都還來得小, 但不要忘記一般季節性流感(seasonal Influenza virus) 的CFR = 0.1%, 也就是說SARS-CoV-2的CFR為季節性流感的20倍, 最近美國新聞上常提到今年冬季美國流感所造成的10,000多人死亡的CFR估計為0.05%, 加上上述肺纖維化的問題, 任何新聞認為SARS-CoV-2只不過是比較嚴重的流感病毒是太低估這病毒。
❗❗
另外, 病毒需要宿主才能活, SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, Ebola都在感染後迅速地殺光了人類宿主, 所以早期的隔離患者才相對重要也有效, SARS-CoV-2反而因為它的低CFR再加上大部分患者沒有症狀, 而很有可能會繼續在人類社會流行
目前看來是65歲以上和本身已患有慢性病的病人的CFR比較高 5-15%, 一般40以下包含兒童和青少年的CFR小於0.5%, 這也可能是日本和義大利這兩個世界上老年人口比例佔前二的國家出現疫情爆發後死亡人數急速增加的原因之一,
❗❗❗
如果SARS-CoV-2最後真的像流感一樣繼續每年流行, 台灣可能要採取像新加坡的策略, 把醫療資源集中放在治療重症患者
5. 大流行(Pandemic)?
台灣新聞上不斷靠腰WHO不願宣布所謂的“大流行”(pandemic), 同樣是個中文翻譯上過於簡單的詞 (https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dsepd/ss1978/lesson1/section11.html)
🔴Outbreak: 在某個族群 (population) 或較小的區域裡突然發生比預期上還多的某種疾病, 通常發生的區域較小, 也可視為較有限的 Epidemic, 如2014-15加州迪士尼樂園的131例麻疹 Measles outbreak.
-demic是從希臘文”demos”來的, 意思為”people”
🔴Epidemic: epi- = upon, on the people, 為某種疾病在特定時間迅速且廣泛的擴散到較大的地區, 通常為一個國家或是洲 (continent), 例如2003 中國為主的SARS-CoV, 2013-2016 在西非的Ebola virus伊波拉病毒
🔴Pandemic: pan- = all, all peoples, 擴散到其他國家或其他洲影響到全球人的疾病, 可視為全球性的Epidemic, 例如1918 年造成人類史上最慘烈五千萬人死亡的H1N1 Influenza 西班牙流感就是Pandemic
🔴Endemic: En- = within, within the people, 指某個疾病固定且持續地出現在某個族群或地區, 如季節性流感, HIV, 或是台灣的B型肝炎(HBV)在台灣也算是Endemic
以下科普網站也解釋得很好
(https://www.technologynetworks.com/immunology/articles/epidemic-vs-pandemic-323471)
所以對目前SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19較精確地敘述應該為, 去年底在武漢地區開始有COVID-19 outbreak, 從今年一月初到二月演變成Epidemic, 而依據目前各國的狀態和趨勢, 還不到Pandemic, 但離Pandemic可能只有一步之遙, 而依據上述幾項原因, 在疫情趨緩之後COVID-19很有機會會成為Endemic, 像是流感一樣, 每年都來攪和一下
10.抗病毒藥。
新病毒一出現, 病毒學家第一件要做的事就是分離病毒, 定序基因, 然後依據它的結構推論或設計抗病毒藥, 弄出一個新藥耗日費時。
最快的方法是看過去有沒有藥已經被用來治療跟新病毒結構相近的病毒, SARV-CoV-2是RNA冠狀病毒, 所以最直接的想法是把過去拿來試過RNA病毒 (Ebola, HIV) 或是冠狀病毒 (SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV) 的藥全部拿來試試看, 目前有幾個候選藥, 包括最熱門的Remdesivir
(https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-covid19-repurposed-treatments-drugs)
🔴Remdesivir: 為RNA病毒設計的藥, 是RNA複製酶抑制劑, RNA病毒需要這複製酶才能複製自己, 當初對Ebola似乎沒用, 但後來發現在動物實驗對MERS-CoV有效, 試在少數幾個COVID-19的病人也發現有改善, 美國做這個藥的藥廠 (Gilead, 現在全世界的股票大跌, 只有這家逆勢大漲就是這原因) 已經在中國開始400-700人的臨床試驗已經要一個月了, 有沒有效很快就能見真章
(https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191)
(https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-clinical-trial-remdesivir-treat-covid-19-begins)
🔴Lopinavir/ritonavir: 為了RNA病毒HIV設計的藥, 作用是抑制M 蛋白酶讓病毒無法有效複製病毒需要的蛋白, SARV-CoV-2 的結構也有同樣的 M 蛋白酶, 所以也被拿來試, 但由於HIV和SARV-CoV-2的 M 蛋白酶結構的差異剛好在藥作用的地方, 猜測可能沒用
🔴Hydroxychloroquine/chloroquine 奎寧: 對這就是 Jude Law 在電影 Contagion 裡用來治療自己的藥, 被廣泛用在治療瘧疾, 目前有data 說可以抑制COVID-19的複製還有抑制病毒和細胞上ACE2受體的結合, 但目前實驗都是在體外細胞株, 放到人類上有沒有用非常難說 (https://virologyj.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1743-422X-2-69)
🔴ACE2受體抑制劑:
SARV-CoV和SARV-CoV-2會和人類細胞上表現的ACE2受體結合而感染人體 (但非常有可能還有其他受體), 在動物和人體上似乎都有某種程度的效果, 某個針對ACE2的藥已經在臨床過了臨床一二期, 代表現階段這藥對人體是安全的, 對COVID-19有沒有顯著效果還有待觀察
(https://www.nature.com/articles/nature03712) //
pandemic vs epidemic 在 興趣使然釣魚人Woody Youtube 的最佳貼文
感恩台灣醫療團隊以及全球的醫療團隊你們辛苦了~~希望你們能持續為台灣及全球的疫情找到治療的方式,保佑全球的人可以平安度過這波疫情~~感恩
Hey everyone, I am WOODY. I am a fishing youtuber,
Due to the spread of the Wuhan virus epidemic all over the world,
many people have been infected with the virus,
and many misfortunes have occurred.
The medical systems around the world,
are working hard on fighting an unprecedented confrontation for global health and safety.
Nevertheless, it seems at the moment there is still no effective vaccine to fight this virus.
With the virus continue to evolve the medical units have kept working on find the cure day and night,
as well as asking the public to take protective actions in order to stop virus from spreading.
To be a part of this global pandemic system,
what we can all do is to stay at home as much as possible and minimize the possibilities of spreding of the virus.
We can also read a book, or surf on the web, or even play video games with our loved one at home.
Or perhaps you can subscribe my YOUTOBER channel LOL
Anyway, my full respect and appreciteion to all the medical teams
throughout the world who have been working silently behind the scenes for uncoutless hours and days !!!
You have all my support, my blessing from Taiwan !!
Peace out ~
pandemic vs epidemic 在 Titan Tyra Youtube 的最讚貼文
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Comment di bawah siapa yang udah nyobain NATUR Sleeping Mask dan kalian paling suka variant apa? ?
#happyhellogoodmorningskin
#pilihyangalami #naturskincare
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Epidemic Sound
pandemic vs epidemic 在 Danny One Youtube 的精選貼文
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pandemic vs epidemic 在 "Epidemic" vs. "Pandemic" vs. "Endemic": What Do These ... 的相關結果
Knowing this, think of an epidemic as the start of something—whether a disease or a trend—spreading rapidly within a community or region, whereas a pandemic is ... ... <看更多>
pandemic vs epidemic 在 Pandemic vs. Epidemic: What's the Difference? - Healthline 的相關結果
Pandemic and epidemic both refer to disease outbreaks. Epidemic refers to disease across a region, and pandemic refers to disease in many countries. ... <看更多>
pandemic vs epidemic 在 What's the difference between a pandemic, an epidemic ... 的相關結果
AN EPIDEMIC is a disease that affects a large number of people within a community, population, or region. · A PANDEMIC is an epidemic that's ... ... <看更多>