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在smokey mountain這個產品中，有11篇Facebook貼文，粉絲數超過227萬的網紅สร้างสรรค์เมนูไข่，也在其Facebook貼文中提到， แอบดูคนไต้หวันดื่มน้ำมะพร้าวดีกว่า #แอบเสียดายเนื้อ นิดนุง 😋😁🥥 เพจ On My Bike Way เป็นอีกเพจที่เกี่ยวกับไต้หวัน ใครชอบเที่ยวชอบกินติดตามได้เลยจร้า...
　同時也有2部Youtube影片，追蹤數超過2萬的網紅Akirito's Ukulele，也在其Youtube影片中提到，フィリピンの歌で面白いのがあったので、日本語でカバーしてみました。 https://youtu.be/GzIoN4VSNqs https://youtu.be/pU5USsuclvI smokey mountain 結構の力作です。 歌詞 （イントロ） こっこっこっこっこ ここココナッツ こっこっ...

smokey mountain 在 สร้างสรรค์เมนูไข่ Facebook 的最佳貼文

สร้างสรรค์เมนูไข่ By สร้างสรรค์เมนูไข่

2019-04-11 11:16:14 有 336 人按讚
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แอบดูคนไต้หวันดื่มน้ำมะพร้าวดีกว่า
#แอบเสียดายเนื้อ นิดนุง 😋😁🥥
เพจ On My Bike Way เป็นอีกเพจที่เกี่ยวกับไต้หวัน ใครชอบเที่ยวชอบกินติดตามได้เลยจร้า

💁‍♀️ สุขสันต์วันพฤหัสบดีสีส้ม 🍊
แม่บ้านเสริฟคลิปที่เพิ่งตัดเสร็จใหม่ๆ
#behindthecoconutnut

จริงๆ ตัดเสร็จตั้งแต่เมื่อคืนกลางดึก
ไม่มั่นใจ ดึกไปไหม?
โพสต์แล้วเดี๋ยวโดนเก็บไลค์คืน😅

☀️ตอนนี้เช้าแล้ว โพสต์ได้
ไปดูซิว่า
🇹🇼คนไต้หวันเขาดื่มน้ำมะพร้าว
แตกต่างจากบ้านเราอย่างไร😋🇹🇭

ครั้งนี้แม่บ้านมุ่งมั่น
ตัดวีดีโอให้ได้ใน 1 นาที📽
เกินมานิดๆ เพราะอยากให้ลงตาม
จังหวะเสียงดนตรี🎼

🎬 ช่วงนี้ต้องฝึกมือเยอะๆ
ความฝันจะได้เปิดคลาสสอน
เพื่อนๆผู้ตั้งถิ่นฐานใหม่ใกล้เข้ามาทุกที

🙇‍♀️ ชอบไม่ชอบอย่างไร
ฝากมิตรรักแฟนเพจ
ติชมกันด้วยนะตะเอง🤗

Vlog: Behind the coconut nut
App : Videoshop
Footage : IPhone X
Music :Da Coconut Nut
Smokey Mountain

#แม่บ้านขาเลาะ
#onmybikeway

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สร้างเพจไข่ขึ้นมาเพราะว่าชอบทานไข่ ไม่ใช่ผู้เชี่ยวชาญด้านไข่ หรือด้านการทำอาหารนะคะ
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smokey mountain 在 元毓 Facebook 的精選貼文

元毓 By 元毓

2018-08-10 11:24:08 有 68 人按讚
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華爾街日報報導：「‘We Are at the Limit’: Trump’s Tariffs Turn Small Businesses Upside Down」

內文簡單而正確的經濟分析：

The impact is now being felt particularly acutely by small businesses and startups. Broadly, this class of company, like others, feels good about the economy. But compared with larger operations, they have less ability to deflect higher materials prices or pass along new costs to customers.

Tariffs throw a wrench into pricing calculations and eat into profit margins. Smaller firms also are less able to shift production to other locations and have smaller reserves to draw on when times get tough.

Even those that benefit from a surge in domestic business are struggling to ramp up quickly enough to take advantage.

As a result, small firms selling all manner of goods, including high-tech light switches and the coated paper used to handle deli meats, are rethinking their strategies, suppliers, manufacturing locations and pricing.

誠如我們反覆談論：關稅障礙本質只是「強迫國內人民用更高的代價去完成既有的經濟活動」，以這點來看，貿易戰結果必然是傷人傷己。與此同時我認為，經濟體的彈性與交易費用高低，也會影響貿易戰下的傷害程度。微觀來看，小企業租值遠不如大企業，當某些生產要素成本被政府人為提高，傷害比例非常可能比大企業還高。

然後從價格理論出發，我們再進入第二步：

如同我批判最低工資法規的邏輯，當政府介入操控市場價格時，必然發生資訊費用上升以及資產配置扭曲的結果。這也是說，貿易戰必然在邊際上影響部分企業的生產要素配置，講更白話就是「投資計畫與回報預期」。越是邊際的企業越容易採取防守策略，而足夠多企業採用防守策略時，景氣就會反轉。

該報導文中幾個案例：

1. 北卡某5人小企業發現貿易戰下，該企業從中國進口的客製化自行車每輛成本增加$425美元，而他們無法在美國找到其他供應商，因此只能默默承受。但其終端零售價格已經高達$3250美元，再提高$425，公司必須與通路商重新議價。（可想而知，該企業如有新產品規劃，也將被迫暫停或重新規劃）

2. 田納西州的Smokey Mountain Trailers表示鋼鋁關稅已經造成該零售價格必須上漲7%，其業務主管表示：「最終還是得由消費者買單（At the end of the day, the consumer is paying.）」（一兩個月前才有自稱總體經濟學專家來此版愚蠢地宣稱『貿易戰不會影響消費者』哩～）

3. Tusco Display也因成本上升，不再續聘20名約僱工人，還進一步辭退10名正職工，且暫緩$1百萬美元的新機台採購案。

4. 舊金山的11人公司 Nebia Inc也因應鋼鋁關稅，考慮將$399美元的連蓬頭OEM從明尼蘇達州移往墨西哥。

5. RelianceCM 這家電子製造廠表示其客戶因物料成本上升，反欲將訂單從美國轉往中國（看傻大媽了）

第三步（這第三步也是先前與內人聊天時特別提及的）：當人民幣下跌幅度夠大時，突發的中美貿易戰結果很可能在短時間內反而出現實質貿易逆差擴大的現象。

同樣從價格理論出發，第一點：所有企業均在侷限條件下達到最高效率，這意味著08年以來的復甦過程，多數存活企業在全球生產要素重配置的運作下（尤其是製造業），不可能有多少「閒置生產線」這類浪費存在。這是關鍵侷限條件。這也是說，川普這種「突發性」的貿易關稅障礙，廠商在短時間內「要完成轉單他國」成本遠高過「先忍下這局」。配合前述「更高代價維持既有經濟活動」看法，一年內中美貿易逆差反而會因為貿易戰而實質不減反增！尤其發動期間恰好是一般國際供應鏈訂單決定期（5~7月），轉單成本將比其他時間點更高，此擴大現象也更難避免。

第二點：lead time -- 以塑膠製品為例，模具是否為公模？若是則轉單成本將大增；若為私模，模具移往新OEM廠，並不保證產能與品質都可平穩不變地跟著移轉（成型機上各種參數與原料配方乃至於色差等等問題均需要耗費時間與成本克服）。若是跨國移送模具，運送費用與模具損耗風險也都是買家需要再三斟酌。此外，若要新開模具，他國技術、成本又是另一層考量。若產品涉及到認證或特殊功能需求（如抗紫外線），則又會延長轉單所需時間與成本。

上述lead-time cost絕非Emmy Hu這種不知世事的偽財經大媽所想像得那麼輕鬆容易。

第三點：也因為轉單成本高、不確定因素高，若人民幣走弱，部分美國採購商反倒可能擴大採購量以因應之。

短時間內，三個關鍵條件均將使貿易戰對實質貿易逆差只會加大而非減少。

我相信第三步分析也是"商周不要的大媽"與一般總體經濟分析都忽略的重點。二者錯誤均來自對真實世界的無知，對交易費用的輕忽。

三步綜合起來，我們可以看得更清楚：

貿易戰增加經濟活動成本、資訊費用與不確定性，必然改變企業原本最有效率的資源配置乃至於回報預期。交易費用的存在必然使得突發的貿易戰不但無助於改善貿易逆差，反而會加劇。

至於美國口口聲聲的「中國侵害智慧財產權」部分，我已經討論過 (https://wp.me/p9ffS3-zn)，就不再贅言重複。

https://www.wsj.com/…/we-are-at-the-limit-trumps-tariffs-tu…

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元毓

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元毓說粉絲頁 美國法學碩士，智財權、競爭法與法律經濟分析專業。分享20年投資經驗所得之經濟學體悟。
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smokey mountain 在 Henry Golding Facebook 的精選貼文

Henry Golding By Henry Golding

2012-10-31 09:12:58 有 12 人按讚
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smokey mountain 在 Akirito's Ukulele Youtube 的最讚貼文

Akirito's Ukulele By Akirito's Ukulele

2017-07-31 12:05:50 有 5,763 人看過 有 30 人喜歡
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フィリピンの歌で面白いのがあったので、日本語でカバーしてみました。
https://youtu.be/GzIoN4VSNqs
https://youtu.be/pU5USsuclvI
smokey mountain
結構の力作です。
歌詞
（イントロ）
こっこっこっこっこ　ここココナッツ
こっこっこっこっこ　ここココナッツ

（バース）
ココナッツ　ナッツ　むっちゃ　でかい実
食べ過ぎると　むっちゃ　太る

ココナッツ　ナッツ　むちゃ大きい実

ボルトのナットは　別物

（コーラス）
どーこ　ココナッツ　
ヤシの木に
またの名をヤシの実

（バース２）
ココナッツ　トゥリー　丈夫な木
家立てたら　家族住める

ココナッツ　トゥリー　硬い木

もっとあれば　家二階建て

（コーラス）

ソロ

（コーラス）

使っているウクレレはenya EUT-X1です
アマゾンのリンクはこちら→ http://amzn.to/2BpchFa

post-title
Akirito's Ukulele

About author
-English- My objective of this channel is to make it easy for everyone to start the ukulele and to improve their skills. For this purpose, I make tutorial videos of both chords and instrumental. I am going to continue this channel as a way of making a difference in the world no matter how small it is. Tutorial levels Lv.1 Around 3 chords Lv.2 Around 5 chords Lv.3 More than 5 chords Lv.4 with Bar chords: B E Bm... Lv.5 With Jazz Chords: F#m7 F#7 C#dim.... -日本語- このチャンネルの理念として「全ての人がウクレレ簡単に始めれるように、そしてどんどん上手くなれるように」を掲げています。そのために初心者の方へは、弾き語りのコードレッスンを上級者の方へはウクレレソロのレッスンを取り揃えています。全ての人がウクレレを始めたいと思った時に、無料でわかりやすく学べる場としてこのチャンネルを育てていこうと思います。賛同された方は是非チャンネル登録の方をよろしくお願いします。 ウクレレレッスンレベル Lv.1 3コードくらい Lv.2 5コードくらい Lv.3 5コード以上 Lv.4 制覇（バー）のコードが入っている（Bm,Eとか） Lv.5 ジャズのコードが入っている。 使用ウクレレ：The ukes I play KALA KA-15S (soprano) Leolani LM-1C (concert) Enya EUT-X1 (Tenor) →http://amzn.to/2BpchFa Sam’s ukulele (tenor) Sakura BU 52 (baritone) (will not be used in the future video)
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smokey mountain 在 roseannetangrs Youtube 的最讚貼文

roseannetangrs By roseannetangrs

2014-12-08 00:27:47 有 19,172 人看過 有 182 人喜歡
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Bobbi Brown Giveaway on @bloombyroseanne instagram happening! Go check it out, they're my make-up classes :)

Music: Jason Castro - Only a Mountain

Products Used:

Face:
Sulwhasoo Perfecting Cushion
Urban Decay Naked Pressed Powder
Tom Ford Concealing Pen

From Naked on the Run Palette:
Eyes - Day Look
- Highlight: 5050
- Crease: Fox
- All Over Lid: Dive
- Define: Dare
- Blending: Fox

Eyes - Night Look
- All Over Lid: Resist
- Outer Corner: Stun
- Highlight: 5050

Brows
- Dare

Lips
- Urban Decay Naked Lipgloss in Sesso (Naked on the Run)

Eyeliner:
- Urban Decay 24/7 Eyeliner in Stag (Naked on the Run)

Mascara:
- Urban Decay Peversion Mascara (Naked on the Run)

Facebook Page: http://www.facebook.com/roseannetangrs
Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/roseannetangrs
Instagram: roseannetangrs
Blog: http://www.roseannetangrs.com

post-title
roseannetangrs

About author
Hey Everyone! Welcome to my channel. Hope you enjoy my videos :) Make-up classes: http://www.bloombyroseanne.com
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smokey mountain 在 Smoky Mountain Brewery - 首頁| Facebook 的推薦與評價

Smoky Mountain Brewery 。 33165 個讚· 99 人正在談論這個。 We are a natural gathering place for any televised sporting event or just for a great meal with ... ... <看更多>

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