關於 social security number是什麼 ，我們在網路上蒐集到這些相關的討論、資訊與評價

[時事英文] 死亡率（mortality rate）*、壓平曲線（flattening the curve）、活動限制 （lockdown）：如何理解這些術語？
　
Language goes beyond a sealed system governed by a rigid set of rules. To fully understand the meaning of a word, one must look further than connotation and denotation, and also take context into consideration. In this case, one needs to examine the social, political, economic, and even statistical contexts of the terms.
　
語言並非只是受嚴密規則所約束的封閉系統。為了充分理解一個單詞的意涵，我們不僅要瞭解其本義與引申義，同時還要考慮整個語境。在此一情況下，應要考察社會、政治、經濟甚至統計上的語境。
　
Does “confirmed cases,” for example, mean the same thing in every country before and during the coronavirus outbreak? What about “lockdowns”? Does it mean that the government is advising people to stay home or is someone nailing your door shut? Some food for thought when reading about the coronavirus outbreak.
　
例如，在冠狀病毒爆發前以及爆發期間，「確診病例」在各國是否具有相同的含義？那麼，封鎖呢？這是否意味著政府正建議人們留在家中，抑或有人正把你家大門釘上？以上是在閱讀疫情的相關資訊時所引人深思的一些事情。
　
*同學好心的補充說明：「mortality rate」通常指的是死亡率，而「fatality rate」則是（因罹患某疾病）致死率。兩者都是重要的死亡指標，但計算公式不相同。
　
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《紐約時報》報導：
　
Making sense of the coronavirus pandemic requires getting up to speed on semantics as much as epidemiology. Government officials and health care professionals toss off mentions of mortality rates, flattening the curve and lockdowns, assuming that we know what they mean. But the terms mean different things from country to country, state to state, even city to city and person to person. Officials use the same phrases about mass testing, caseloads and deaths to describe very different situations. That makes it hard to give clear answers to vital questions: How bad are things? Where are they headed?
　
1. make sense of… 理解……
2. get up to speed on 了解最新情況；跟上進度
3. toss off 輕而易舉地處理*
　
弄懂新型冠狀病毒大流行，既需要了解流行病學的最新情況，也需要在語義學上跟上形勢。「死亡率」、「壓平曲線」和「活動限制」等說法從政府官員和公共衛生專業人士的嘴裡脫口而出，他們假設大家都知道這些詞的意思。但對不同的國家、不同的州，甚至不同的城市和個人來說，這些術語有著不同的含義。 官員們使用「大規模檢測」、「病例數」和「死亡病例數」等相同的措辭，來描繪非常不同的情況。這令一些重要的問題難以得到明確的回答：情況有多糟糕？正在向什麼方向發展？
　
toss off: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/toss%20off
　
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People search for insight by comparing their countries to those that are further along in the epidemic. But if the terms are misleading or used in differing ways, the comparisons are flawed. Also, the statistics and vocabulary offer a false sense of precision while in reality, the information we have shows only a fraction of what’s going on. “The new cases or deaths each day are given as exact numbers, and we’re trained to take that at face value,” said Mark N. Lurie, an epidemiologist at Brown University’s School of Public Health. “But those are far from exact, they’re deeply flawed, and their meaning varies from place to place and from time period to time period.”
　
4. be further along in 在……上走得更深遠
5. at face value 根據外表；從表面上看
　
人們將自己的國家與那些經歷了疫情更多階段的國家進行比較，以求了解情況。但是，如果這些詞語使人產生誤解，或在使用方式上存在差異的話，這種比較就是錯誤的。此外，這些統計數據和詞彙給人以精準的假象，而現實是，我們所掌握的信息僅代表冰山一角。「每天的新增病例數或死亡人數都是以精準數字的形式通報的，我們被訓練成只看這些表面數字。」布朗大學公共衛生學院流行病學家馬克・盧裡說。「但這些數字遠非精準，而且有嚴重缺陷，它們的含義因不同的時間和地點而不同。」
　
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I. Confirmed Cases 確診病例
　
Countries vary wildly in testing for the virus and how they report the numbers, and experts say most infections are going undetected. So the publicized national tallies are rough, incomplete pictures that may not be all that comparable. And that’s if countries are forthcoming about their data.
　
6. vary wildly in 在……上有極大的差異*
7. publicize 公布；宣傳
8. national tallies 國家的統計數據
9. incomplete pictures 不完整的狀況
10. forthcoming 樂於幫助的
　
各國在病毒檢測以及通報數字的方式上有很大差異，而且專家們說，大多數感染都沒有被發現。因此，各國公布的只是粗略的數據，這些並不完整的描繪也許沒有多少可比性。這還是在假設各國願意提供數據的情況下。

wildly: https://bit.ly/2wkgPjo
　
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Officials in the United States say that China, which has reported more than 82,000 infections, has understated its epidemic. Until this week, the Chinese government excluded those patients who tested positive for the virus but had no symptoms. China also doesn’t say how many tests it has conducted, and doubts have been raised about whether it has tested extensively in Xinjiang, the province where it holds hundreds of thousands of Muslims in indoctrination camps. The Covid Tracking Project, run by The Atlantic, has tried to compile all the numbers in the United States and reports more than 1.2 million tests so far, over 3,600 per million people.
　
11. understate 未如實陳述；避重就輕地說
12. exclude 把……排除在外
13. indoctrination camps 再教育營
14. run by 由……經營
　
中國通報的累計確診病例超過８萬２千例，美國官員說，中國淡化了國內的疫情。直到本週前，中國政府一直把病毒檢測呈陽性但沒有癥狀的感染者不納入確診病例。中國也未公開接受檢測的人數，而且外界已對中國是否在新疆進行了大規模檢測表示懷疑，中國在那裡把數十萬穆斯林關進了拘禁營。《大西洋月刊》的新冠肺炎追蹤計劃試圖匯總美國的所有數據，它統計到的數字是，美國迄今為止進行了逾１２０萬例檢測，平均每百萬人超過３６００例。
　
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II. Widespread Testing 大規模檢測

It matters not only how many people are tested, but also when, and who they are. Once again, countries differ, shaping what the numbers mean. A few countries, like South Korea, Australia and Singapore, got serious about mass testing early on. They used the information to do ambitious contact-tracing — finding and testing those who had recently been near infected people, even if they had no symptoms.
　
15. it matters 重要的是
16. not only……, but also…… 不僅……，而且……
17. get serious about 認真對待某事
18. early on 在早期
　
重要的不只是多少人做了檢測，檢測時間和檢測對象也很重要。各國在檢測時間和對象上也有不同，這讓數字的含義也有所不同。韓國、澳洲和新加坡等少數國家很早就開始認真地進行大規模檢測。他們利用這些信息嚴格追蹤接觸者，也就是找到並檢測那些親密接觸者，即使他們沒有癥狀。
　
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But most nations with large numbers of cases have done less testing, waited longer to do it in bulk, and made little attempt at contact tracing. They find themselves playing catch-up with the virus, ramping up testing after their outbreaks had already mushroomed. They detect more cases, but by then it’s hard to tell how much of that growth is the expanding epidemic and how much is expanding surveillance. Unable to meet the demand, they often limit testing to the sickest patients and health workers.
　
19. in bulk 大量
20. make little attempt 幾乎未做嘗試
21. ramp up 增加*
22. mushroom (v.) 迅速增長；迅速發展*
23. meet the demand 滿足需求
24. limit……to 將……限制在……
　
但大多數存在大量確診病例的國家進行的檢測數量都比較少，都是等了更長時間後才開始進行大規模檢測，而且對追蹤接觸者的工作幾乎未做嘗試。這些國家發現自己在拚命追趕病毒的傳播，在疫情迅速蔓延後才加大了檢測力度。這些國家都檢測到了更多的病例，但此時已很難判斷新增病例中有多少是疫情不斷擴大的結果，有多少是擴大疫情監測的結果。由於無法滿足檢測需求，這些國家通常只能對病情最嚴重的患者以及衛生工作者做檢測。
　
ramp up: https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/ramp-up
mushroom: https://www.ldoceonline.com/dictionary/mushroom
　
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III. Fatality Rates 致死率
　
It has been stated time and again: Italy and Spain have high mortality rates among coronavirus patients, Germany’s is low, and China’s is somewhere between. It may not be that simple. Counting the dead is as flawed and inconsistent as counting the infected. Recent reports say that mortuaries in Wuhan, China, where the disease was first discovered, have ordered thousands more urns than usual, suggesting a much higher death toll than the city’s official count, 2,535. The outbreaks in Wuhan, and parts of Italy and Spain, overwhelmed hospitals, forcing many sick people to ride it out at home. No one knows how many people have recovered or died without ever being tested. And if only the sickest patients are tested, then the number of infections will appear smaller and the percentage who die will seem higher.
　
25. time and again 屢次；一再
26. as flawed and inconsistent as 像……一樣存在缺陷與不一致
27. mortuary 停屍間（太平間）
28. urn 骨灰罈
29. suggest 暗示*
30. death toll 死亡人數
31. to ride it out 安然渡過（難關）*
　
一個反覆提及的說法是：義大利和西班牙的新冠病毒肺炎患者死亡率高，德國的低，中國的居中。情況也許並不那麼簡單。統計死亡人數和統計感染人數一樣存在缺陷和不一致的地方。最近有報導稱，武漢的殯儀館訂購的骨灰盒數比該市官方統計的２５３５例死亡高出好幾千，表明死亡人數遠高於官方公布的數字。新冠病毒最早就是在這座城市發現的。武漢以及義大利和西班牙部分地區的疫情使醫院不堪重負，許多患者被迫在家中渡過難關。沒人知道究竟有多少人在從未做檢測的情況下康復或死亡。如果只對病情最嚴重的患者做檢測的話，感染人數看上去會更低，而死亡率看起來將更高。
　
suggest: https://www.oxfordlearnersdictionaries.com/definition/english/suggest
ride sth out: https://bit.ly/2Rd6Tj6
　
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IV. The Peak 疫情高峰
　
Officials often talk about when the epidemic peaks or plateaus — when a country “flattens the curve.” But they rarely specify, the peak of what? And how can we be sure we’re past it? When an outbreak is growing unchecked, more people become infected and more die each day than the day before. On a graph, the curve showing the daily count of new cases has gone from rising sharply to moving sideways — the curve has flattened — and even begun to move downward. That is one corner being turned: The rate of the spread of the virus has slowed down. It takes longer to turn another: the rate of people dying.
　
32. from rising sharply to moving sideways 從急劇上升到橫向移動
33. turn the corner 好轉；度過難關*
　
官員們經常提疫情何時達到高峰或進入平台期，也就是一個國家「壓平曲線」的時候。但他們很少具體說明是什麼達到了高峰，以及我們怎麼能確定高峰已過？當疫情不受控制地發展時，每天的感染和死亡人數都比前一天多。曲線圖上顯示的每天新增病例數從急劇上升變得趨於平緩——曲線已被壓平——甚至開始下降。這是一個轉折點：病毒的傳播速度已經放緩。度過死亡人數的轉折點則需要更長的時間。
　
turn the corner: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/turn%20the%20corner
　
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But even when those curves flatten, the epidemic still has not “peaked” by another crucial measure: the number of active cases. That figure continues to rise until the number of patients who either die or recover each day is larger than the number of new infections. To ease the staggering load on health care systems, the active cases curve must also flatten and then fall.
　
34. peak (v.) 使……達到頂峰
35. either……or…… 不是……就是……
36. staggering 沉重的；巨大的
　
但是，即使這些曲線已趨於平緩，疫情的另一個重要衡量指標——現存確診病例數——仍未達到「峰值」。在每天的死亡或康復患者人數超過新增感染人數之前，這個數字還將繼續上升。為緩解衛生系統的沉重負擔，現存確診病例數的曲線也必須先趨平，然後下降。
　
peak: https://www.oxfordlearnersdictionaries.com/definition/english/peak_2
　
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V. Lockdowns 封鎖（活動限制）
　
More than two billion people, including most Americans, are living under something usually called a lockdown. But there is no set definition of that word — or related terms like stay-at-home mandates and social distancing — so the details differ from place to place. The biggest differences may be in enforcement. Some places, like those in the United States with lockdowns, mostly rely on people to follow the rules without coercion. But Italy and others have deployed soldiers to ensure compliance, and French police have fined hundreds of thousands of people for violating restrictions. China, in addition to using security forces, mobilized an army of volunteers, ratcheting up social pressure to obey.
　
37. set definition 固定的定義
38. enforcement 實施；執行
39. rely on 仰賴；依靠
40. deploy 部署
41. compliance 服從
42. fine 處……以罰款（或罰金）
43. in addition to 除了……之外
44. mobilize 動員
45. ratchet sth up/down 逐步增加／減少
　
全球有２０多億人，包括大多數美國人正生活在一般被稱為「活動限制」的狀態下。但這個詞沒有固定的定義，其他的相關說法，比如政府的「待在家裡」和「保持社交距離」令也沒有明確的定義，所以各地的具體做法也不一樣。最大的不同可能在執行方面。有些地方，比如美國有限制令的地方，主要依靠人們自覺遵守，而非強制。但義大利等國為確保限制令的落實而動用了軍隊，法國警方還對數已十萬計的違反禁令者處以罰款。中國除了使用安全部隊外，還動員了一支志願者大軍來加大服從封鎖隔離措施的社會壓力。
　
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Italy’s experience shows the looseness of the term. It has gone through several phases of restrictions, applying them to more people, making them stricter and increasing enforcement. A few weeks ago, a person could travel around Italy for a valid work or family reason. Now, people are fined for nonessential walking too far from their homes. But each stage was widely called by the same name: lockdown.
　
46. looseness 鬆散
47. valid 確鑿的；合理的；有根據的；讓人信服的
　
義大利的經歷表明了這個詞語解釋上的自由。義大利的封鎖令經歷了幾個階段，適用範圍擴大到越來越多的人，封鎖及其執行也變得越來越嚴格。幾週前，人們還可以因為正當的工作或家庭原因在義大利旅行。現在，人們會因不必要的離家太遠的走動而被罰款。但禁令的每個階段用的都是同一個泛泛的名稱：活動限制。
　
《紐約時報》完整報導：https://nyti.ms/2XcCUeT

圖片出處：https://fxn.ws/34gwSeH
　
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時事英文大全：http://bit.ly/2WtAqop
　
如何使用「時事英文」：https://bit.ly/3a9rr38
　
＃疫情英文

《免於恐懼的自由祈禱會》
呂秉權先生的分享

#絕望中的希望 《免於恐懼的自由》祈禱會
呂秉權 兄弟分享--- #沸點即場筆錄

片段 ▶️ https://www.facebook.com/109180535767655/posts/2493494547336230?s=548400948&v=e&sfns=mo

主教、神父、各位兄弟姊妹，大家好！很感恩可以在這裏跟大家分享，大家還是平平安安。我想起一位從大陸偷偷地來香港返教會，「宗教自由行」的姊妹，她說，想不到竟然可以在街頭報佳音，如果在大陸做這事的話，一早就被拒捕了！原來，我們可以站在街上祈禱、唱聖詩，是這麼美好的事情！

今次逃犯條例的修訂，令政府有一個很大的讓步，我可以說，這是一個奇蹟、是一個神蹟！

為我們這群，一直研究中國大陸政治的朋友來說，看著所有原先的蛛絲馬跡，中央對港的方針，是沒有讓步這計劃的！我跟大家說，原本這樣的逃犯條例，是怎樣的一回事：北京和林鄭月娥，他們以為這條例必定順利通過！為什麼？

首先，立法會絕對有足夠的票數去支持、商界也在中央的操控下一一「跪低」，即使你不情願，你不願意收回你的司法覆核也好，你最好也要跪低。

第二，在民意而言，北京已經評估過香港狀況，就算最多反對聲音、最壞程度，北京原先的評估，反對者就是佔中的規模；而佔中的規模，特區政府和警方已綽綽有餘，足以瓦解這行動於無形。兼且，這幾年來，香港的警隊， 已經不再是同樣的警隊了！香港的警隊已經進化了很多。

在後勤，我們亦知道解放軍已預備好。上一次佔領行動的時候，解放軍駐港部隊的深圳後勤部隊已經演練了；他們以四人枱一個人的規模，預備進行必要的介入，但最終沒有用到，但是他們是有部署的。如果有1萬人的集會，四個人抬1人，換句話說，就是說有4萬兵力在後勤準備。今次，不要以為我們看不見明顯的徵兆；解放軍駐港部隊已經不經不覺地做了不少工作。大家可記得？山竹襲港時，市面和郊野公園有大片破壞，解放軍駐港部隊幾百人，居然越過了駐軍法，沒有通知特區政府的情況下，可以出兵幾百人，穿着制服，他們以清理郊區的名義，動員幾百人，沒有駐軍令、沒有適當程序，他們就派了幾百個解放軍來了。這一點，我自己認為是十分危險的訊號。

第三，除了因為林鄭信心爆棚外，還有中央的因素在內。如果我們只看表面的話，會以為（修例）只是林鄭個人決定。其實，逃犯條例的修訂，中央跟香港談了很多年了，他們問香港要人，要了很多年了！今次在這修訂逃犯條例的大背景下，中央政府希望「法律武器化」香港；簡單來說，就是用任何香港的程序和法律去實行國家安全，這至高無上的保障。中央想通過這條移交逃犯條例，其實是一條「萬能Key」，文匯大公的權威解讀，國內中港智囊研究多年中港移交條例，除了一般所說：大陸犯罪的人匿藏在香港、除了香港人在國內犯罪回到香港外...... 更重要的計劃，就是威脅「國家安全」的罪犯。

在文匯大公報，5月23日引用權威人士解讀：當遇到威脅國家安全的罪犯時，一般是由香港，按照香港法律程序去處理的。那換句話說，是有不一般的情況了？當不一般的情況出現了，是不是就是可以超越香港程序去處理？而在國內研究這問題的智囊，很清楚跟我們說，在中國法律上，是沒有「政治犯」的！我們從前說反革命罪犯、或現在煽動顛覆國家政權罪犯，他們並非「政治犯」，而只是三個字：刑事犯！當我們面對刑事犯的時候，是否不引渡呢？是不是用政治犯為保護罩，我們就不引渡危害國家安全的罪犯呢？國內的智囊說，國內的邏輯是相反的！正是這些人破壞國家安全，香港更不能夠成為國家安全的漏洞，更加要去移交（罪犯），這是最恐怖的。

為什麼我們覺得恐怖呢？因為我們怎樣去定義一個人危害國家安全呢？那標準是相當之闊！在內地，只要你所謂「得罪共產黨」，你做一些黨不喜歡你做的事；你批評中央、你去支援內地的宗教，也許你報導一些新聞，內地不喜歡的......很容易你就會被檢控。

以往很多人被「砌生豬肉」（誣告），用藏毒罪、用偷竊罪、用間諜罪...... 被指控，是很恐怖的情況！我們中國大陸所行的體制，是人民民主專政，簡單來說就是「專政」兩個字！

專政是什麼呢？專政就是說，當面對政府所認為的「敵人」時，就可以不需要依照法律辦事、可以越過法律。如果大家還記得，在內地發生過不少專政事件，劉霞為什麼會完全沒有在法律程序下，被剝奪人身自由、被軟禁這麼久？銅鑼灣書店的相關人士，為什麼可以在香港跟泰國等地被綁架；被綁了之後，自願被剝奪所有法律權利，不見家人，在電視機面前認罪......為什麼呢？因為當時中國政府正在實行專政。

國家主席劉少奇，用憲法的名義叫大家不可以這樣去迫死人， 到最後......他們將一個被鬥到遍體鱗傷，急需醫院治療的一個國家主席，丟在河南的一個密室，失救至死。專政還可以令十大元帥賀龍，他患有糖尿病和各種疾病；死的時候被人專政，把高質量的葡萄糖液，打進他的身體，葡萄糖液與糖尿病結合...... 令他的腎臟衰竭、身體衰竭而死。

當一個國家說自己依法治國，但隨時可以行專政的時候，香港的法律開了一扇門，與這種專政的做法接連、以國家安全名義...... 這是多麼恐怖的事呢？而這個程序去修例，就是原來的劇本！

原來的劇本亦包括，中央在年頭的時候，審視全國的形勢，去防止各種的失控，各種不穩定因素，各種的風險。國家開了全國最高省部級的領導幹部大會，有習近平在中央黨校開講，很出名的什麼灰犀牛、黑天鵝、六個穩定，就是從這會議中出來的。當時中共領導人，是很害怕一件事： 所謂的中國「逢九必亂」，逢年份有9，他們就容易有大亂，中共見證着：
1949年，國共的更替；59年，大饑荒；69年，中蘇珍寶島之戰，國家主席劉少奇被鬥死；79年，中越戰爭；89年，六四事件；99年，法輪功圍中南海；2009年，新疆七五騷亂。

2019年頭的時候，中共已經開了全國大會去防止有任何混亂的情況。他們做了很多措施，亦都分享了很多經驗怎去處理問題。當時在中央的劇本中，香港的局勢可以說：穩如泰山！沒有可能在逢九必亂的其中一亂，是沒有可能的。他們所擔心的是經濟、與及萬一出現的失業問題，中美貿易之戰，絕對不是香港的事情。

近年，中央領隊領導人對香港的研判，他們認為香港局勢是非常的大好！為什麼這樣說呢？因為全面管治權已逐步落實，立法會受到建制的加持，由於這些社運、甚至旺角騷亂的人，相繼被重判；各種不同政見的人被DQ，整個社會的公民意識越來越低；北京與林鄭政府是極有信心的，這條例，不可能不通過！習近平早年說怎樣處理群眾運動時，清楚地說到：他剛剛上台，要扭轉胡、溫時代的那種妥協作風。習近平說：不可以：小鬧小解決、大鬧大解決、不鬧不解決！他不能讓這情況持續下去！習近平任內對港的多番措施，沒有一件證明他是妥協的；除了梁振英的不連任，而當時，是因為他在建制及商界中拿不到票 。有數票的人說，取得601票已是十分困難了，不是群眾的力量造成。而今次面對6月9日103萬人大遊行，大家可以看到，林鄭與北京政府當時的不妥協，遊行完後，無論人數有多少，依然故我，條例繼續。

當我們常常會問：天主你在哪裏？天主，為什麼香港可以被人摧殘至此？不知怎樣來了一個逆轉 ！當我們很多時質疑青年是「廢青」，在612星期三，出現了一個大家都不想看見、但卻成了一個逆轉的場面！一班青年人，他們有些是寫了遺書的，決定自己去擋子彈的情況下，他們去衝擊立法會、衝擊警方防線！當然從法律來說，他們的做法是犯法的；但是從一個公義的角度，他們認為這事情不應該這樣繼續下去，所以，他們做了抗爭。而這種抗爭，竟令到已經升級變形的香港警隊，殺紅了眼，連內部評估，也認為當警方被衝擊後，出去對群眾的清場用槍、去射頭部、用各種武器去攻擊一些無辜的人；警隊的一些內部評估，也認為是過火了。是這情況令到整件事逆轉！整個國際的壓力，令到北京政府難以承受。

那原先他們的計劃是怎樣呢？在內地的電視，和平集會的鏡頭全部被刪去，被描繪成示威者衝擊警察、暴徒般襲擊，今次他們想說成香港暴徒襲擊政府，以拿取道德高地。殊不知，警方濫用武器、過度執法、逆轉了整個畫面！原本習近平的計劃：叫做「楓橋經驗」，那就是遇到群眾事件時，就地解決，矛盾不上交！煎你的皮、但內裡燒不焦；鬥你的表面，但內部不會出事......

但很可惜，今次特區政府不單止沒有「矛盾不上交」，不但上交中央、還上了國際層面；令中共面對非常大的壓力，因而出現了一個逆轉。

我認為，這是天主的眷顧、天主的神跡！

到最後，我想用一個眼神去完結我這個分享：我記得，在612過後，我跟朋友去了一所聖堂，在聖堂門口見到一對警察，虎視眈眈，還是非常強硬的態度，他們想去捉拿聖堂內的青年。我在聖堂內看見一位青年，穿著黑背心，眼神很惶恐。我問他，可要幫他買件衣服，讓他離開？他說：「不用了」，他在聖堂得到了保護，找到了他的家，真正的父親、母親。當我行出教堂外，警察的目光，好像張牙舞爪，想要抓一個孩子......

希望上主繼續眷顧我們，賜我們平安；希望傷者能得平安...... 主佑香港！

2019年6月19日晚上

▶️ 祈禱會直播 https://www.facebook.com/1764198537146061/posts/2394608974105011?s=548400948&sfns=mo

▶️再談逃犯條例修定研討會 https://www.facebook.com/hkjpcom/videos/2180158835373248?s=667412853

“Hope in despair”
sharing of Mr Lui Ping Kuen at the “freedom from fear” prayer meeting

Bishop, father, brothers and sisters:

I am so grateful to share with you all here and I am grateful that we are all safe. I think of a sister who sneaked in Hong Kong to attend church services, “Religious Individual Visit”. She was surprised that there was street caroling in Hong Kong because one will be arrested if one does this in the Mainland. It is so wonderful that we can pray and sing hymns on the street!

I can claim that it is a miracle that the government retreats on the extradition bill!

For people like us who have studied Chinese Politics for a long time, we found that the Central Government had no plan to retreat in their policy towards Hong Kong from the clues we observed. I told you what the extradition bill was about originally: Beijing and Carrie Lam thought that the bill must be passed smoothly! Why?

First of all, there were definitely enough votes in the Legislative Council to pass the bill, and the business sector also submitted under the control of the Central Government, whether you were willing or not, whether you wanted to withdraw the judicial review application or not, you’d better submit to it.

Secondly, the Central Government has assessed the views of people in Hong Kong and they thought that the worst case scenario would be similar to that of the scale of Umbrella Movement only. They believed that the HKSAR Government and the Police could handle that scale of protest easily. Moreover, Hong Kong Police Force is not the same as the one a few years ago and has improved a lot. We also knew that the People's Liberation Army was well prepared to support. The logistic unit of People's Liberation Army Hong Kong Garrison in Shenzhen has drilled during the previous occupying movement. They prepared to intervene, on a scale of 4 soldiers to remove 1 protester, when necessary. Although it was not carried out eventually, they were prepared. If there is a rally of 10 thousands people, 4 soldiers removing 1 protester, that means there are 40 thousands soldiers preparing to support. We can see significant signs that People's Liberation Army Hong Kong Garrison has done a lot when we are not aware of it. Do you still member, there was extensive damage in urban and rural areas during the strike of severe typhoon Mangkhut? A few hundred soldiers from the People's Liberation Army Hong Kong Garrison wearing their uniform, bypassing the Garrison Law and without informing the HKSAR Government, were mobilised in the name of clearing the rural areas. Ignoring the Garrison Law and proper procedure, they sent a few hundred soldiers. I think this is a very dangerous sign.

Thirdly, besides the overconfidence of Carrie Lam, the Central Government is also a key factor. On the surface, we would think this (amendment of the bill) is solely Carrie Lam’s own decision. In fact, the amendment of extradition bill has been discussed between the Central Government and the HKSAR Government for many years. They have been asking Hong Kong for people they wanted for many years! The Central Government wants to make law their weapon in Hong Kong, to put it simply, the Central Government wants to exercise national security by using any procedures and laws in Hong Kong, this is the ultimate protection. The Central Government wants to pass this extradition bill, which works for nearly anything. From the authoritative interpretation by the Wen Wei Po and Ta Kung Pao, the think tank in Mainland which has been studying extradition law between Mainland and Hong Kong for many years, that it is because, besides the situations that the criminals from the Mainland hide in Hong Kong or Hong Kong people committed offences in the Mainland and hide in Hong Kong, more importantly the criminals that threaten “national security”.

On 23 May, Wen Wei Po and Ta Kung Pao quoted interpretation from authority that it is normally handled by Hong Kong according to Hong Kong legal procedures when there are criminals that threaten national security. In other words, there are abnormal situations? Will it bypass the Hong Kong legal procedures to handle the case when abnormal situation occurs? Member of think tank in the Mainland who studies this issue told us clearly that, there is no “political offenders” under Chinese law. No matter the “counter-revolutionary” offenders in the past or the current “inciting subversion of state power” offenders, they are not “political offenders” but criminal offenders! Are we not to extradite a criminal offender? Are we not to extradite offenders threatening national security by using “political offender” as a protection shield? Member of think tank in the Mainland said, the logic in Mainland is the opposite! As these people cause damage to national security, Hong Kong should not be the loophole of national security and more justified to extradite (offenders). This is the most dangerous part.

Why do we think that this is dangerous? It is because it is very easy for one to be defined as threatening national security. In the Mainland, if you do anything that the Communist Party doesn’t want you to do and upset the Communist Party, such as criticising the Central Government, supporting the religions in Mainland, reporting some news they don’t like. You are easy to be prosecuted.

In the past, there were a lot of people being prosecuted with false accusations including possession of drugs, theft, espionage. It is very horrible! The system in Mainland China is called “People’s democratic dictatorship”, to put it simply, dictatorship! What is dictatorship? It means that the Government do not need to follow the law and can bypass the law when dealing with their “enemies”. There were many incidents occurred under dictatorship in the Mainland if you still remember. Why were Liu Xia put under house arrest, deprived of personal freedom, for such a long time without following any legal procedures? Why were the people related to Causeway Bay Books kidnapped in places like Hong Kong and Thailand, then voluntarily deprived all legal rights, not to meet their families, and pleaded guilty on television? Why? It is because the Chinese Government is practising dictatorship at that time.

President Liu Shaoqi asked people not to persecute and caused the death of others in the name of constitution, at the end… They left a president who was seriously hurt by the crowd and was required to be sent to hospital for treatment urgently, in a room in Henan secretly and died as he was not saved in time. Dictatorship also made one of the then 10 Marshals of the Communist Party, He Lung, who suffered from diabetes and other illnesses, dead after an injection of a large dose of glucose. The glucose and diabetes caused his death by kidney failure and multiple organ failure.

When a country claims that it exercises rule by law, but it can also exercise dictatorship at anytime, if the Hong Kong legal system will be connected to this dictatorship, in the name of national security… how horrible is this? And this is the original script, which the law would be amended according to this procedure! The original script also included that, the Central Government has assessed the situation of the whole country to prevent any out-of-control situation, to prevent any uncertainties and risks in the beginning of this year. A countrywide meeting for officials of provincial level was held and Xi Jinping gave a speech at the Central Party School. Those famous saying included “grey rhinocero”, “black swan”, “six certainties” are originated from this meeting. The leaders of Communist Party were scared of one thing: the so-called “chaos in the years ending in 9” as the Communist Party witnessed chaos happened in those years ending in 9: 1949 - the Kuomintang was replaced by the Communist; 1959 - the Great Famine; 1969 - Sino-Russian Zhenbao dao War and President Liu Shaoqi was dead; 1979 - Sino-Vietnamese War; 1989 - Tiananmen Square Protests; 1999 - Falun Gong practitioners surrounded the Zhongnanhai (Central Government compound in Beijing); 2009 - 5th July Incident in Xinjiang.

In the beginning of 2019, countrywide meeting was held by the Communist Party to prevent any chaotic situation. They have done a lot and shared experience on handling problems. On the script of the Central Government at that time, the situation in Hong Kong was extremely stable. This was impossible for Hong Kong to become one of the chaos in the “chaos in the years ending in 9”. This was impossible. They were worried about the economics and the possible unemployment problem, US-China Trade War, definitely not Hong Kong issue.

The leaders of Central Government assessed that the circumstance in Hong Kong was very favourable in recent years. Why did they think so? It is because overall jurisdiction is gradually exercising in Hong Kong, the Legislative Council is supported by the pro-establishment camp; the social activists or even people involved in MongKok Riot were serving severe sentences; people of different political views were disqualified, civil awareness of the community became lower and lower; Beijing and Carrie Lam’s team were very confident in passing the bill. Talking about how to handle social movement, Xi Jinping stated that he would change the compromising style of Hu(Jintao)-Wen(Jiabao) Era when he came to power. Xi Jinping said no to “small conflict solves on a small scale, large conflict solves on a large scale, no conflict then nothing will be solved”! He could not allow this situation to continue. None of the policies towards Hong Kong showed any compromise during Xi Jinping’s rule, except no second term of office for CY Leung. It was because he could not get enough votes from the pro-establishment camp and the business sector at that time. One who counted the number of votes (before the election to estimate the number) said that it was difficult enough to get 601 votes. It was not a result of the power of the people. There were 1 million and 30 thousands people joining the demonstration on 9th June, we could see that Carrie Lam and Beijing Government did not compromise. No matter how many people joined the demonstration, they continued the procedures to pass the bill after the demonstration.

When we keep asking: “Where are you God?” “God, why are Hong Kong people tortured like this?” Here comes a reverse! When we question the youngsters as “useless”, on Wednesday 12th June, a situation that we all didn’t want to see occurred, but it made a reverse! A group of youngsters, some of them have written their testaments and decided to block the bullets, charged against Legislative Council and the Police cordon lines! Of course, their acts were illegal from the legal point of view; however, from the point of justice, they didn’t think that this issue should continue in this way. Therefore, they protested. This kind of protest unexpectedly triggered the uncontrolled attack by the upgraded and distorted Hong Kong Police. Even the internal assessment of the Police Force considered that the Police who used guns, shot in the head and used different weapons to attack innocent people, to clear the scene after being clashed, went too far. This is what made the issue reversed! The international pressure made it unbearable for Beijing Government.

Then what was their original plan? On the Mainland television, shots of peaceful assembly were all deleted and would be described as the protesters crashing the Police and attacking like mob. They wanted to claim that Hong Kong mob attacked the Government to gain moral high ground. However, excessive use of force by the Police reversed the whole situation. The original plan of Xi Jinping was called "Fengqiao Experience” which solves the social events on site and not to escalate it; attacks the surface but not to affect the core part. Unfortunately, the HKSAR Government could not solve the problem on site and escalated to the Central Government, and even reached an international level. It created a very big pressure for the Communist Party and made a reverse.

I think this is mercy from God, a miracle from God!

Lastly, I would like to conclude my sharing by the expression shown in one’s eyes. I remember I went to a church with friends after the 12th June incident and saw a pair of policeman at the entrance of the church, looking aggressive and wanted to catch the youngsters in the church. I saw a youngster in church, wearing a black vest, looked terrified in his eyes. I asked him whether I should help him to get clothes so that he could leave. He answered no. He found protection and home in the church, found his real father and mother. When I left the church, from the look of the policemen, it seemed to me that they wanted to catch a child…

May God continues to bless us with peace and may the wounded be given peace. God bless Hong Kong!

Evening of the 19th of June

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