🌻另一個Zoom會議(第二次貼......有補上一些內容)
繼上次的年報導讀會議後, 讓我們再做另一個會議! 這次很榮幸邀請到一位對估值很有見解的股友前輩來帶大家了解估值(恩, 這次我會是主持人, 不是主講人).
主題: 估值(valuation)分享會(Cat: 這不算基礎的估值會議)
主講人: 小揚(from安泰價值投資)
https://www.facebook.com/antaiinvestment (此為小揚的粉絲頁)
參與者: 具基本估值能力. 若打算參加者, 請事先跟我(請私訊)提出一個關於估值的case study, 到時候可在會議中分享(最好是以投影片形式呈現, 這樣到時候好跟大家分享). 若有估值的問題, 也可以提出.
Case study可以是美股, 也可以是台股.
時間: 台灣時間07/10 (周六)晚間9點.
預計一個小時(不會像上次那樣冗長了😅): 前30分鐘由小揚做分享, 後30分鐘大家分享估值案例&提問
進行方式: 以Zoom進行(之後會私訊會議資訊給參與者)
🌻Morgan Stanley Mid-year Investor Outlook: A tricky transition
https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/midyear-2021-global-markets-outlook
🌻在您投資生涯中, 有沒有一些觀念讓您受用很多?
下面這位投資名人的好觀念影響我很深. 他的意思是, 一般投資人, 只要能説出三個買一家公司的理由, 就很夠了. 這也迫使我, 每次在買股票時, 問自己對這家公司的了解有多少. 也會去衡量公司的優點與缺點在哪裡.
"It is vital (重要的) that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks."
全文在此:
Jim Cramer: In Times Like This, Go for the Easy Money
Look at the stocks you own. Can you tell me why you've got them? If you can't answer the following three questions, then have a look at several I like right now.
We've endured the meme stock craziness, with all of its love for heavily shorted stocks. We have watched the collapse of bitcoin to levels viewed as shocking, even if they are still more than double where they were not that long ago. We've dealt with Fed officials making it clear that they are no longer on the side of the bulls or the bears. They are on the side of job growth, but are wary of inflation. We've seen the end of the rush to get vaccines, which means that millions of people are going to get the new COVID variant, because there is no natural immunity to it. We've watched as the hopes for an infrastructure bill have collapsed. We've endured shortages of everything from chips to plastic to imported goods and labor.
And we're still standing, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Yep, we are in one of those halcyon moments, where the masks are off -- even if they shouldn't be -- and Americans are back doing what they do best: consume, spend, go out to eat and then consume and spend some more.
There are times in the stock market where the collective mindset is revealed. This is one of those times: Things are cool, it's not a big moment, there's no real news for a bit, it's the historically strong period and we can reach some conclusions about where we are.
When things are like this, it is important to remember that buyers like to revert to tried-and-true companies that thrive no matter what. These are companies that have an edge and are better at what they do than other companies.
You know that I am a great believer in index funds, that the average person doesn't have the time or the inclination to research individual stocks. It's a difficult barrier. I think you need to make time to read the quarterly report and listen to the conference call, to Google articles and, if possible, get some research about the companies you own. It is vital that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks. I am reminded by this, because, once again, without a mask, I can be recognized and if I am not holding "Nvidia the Second," I can carry on a conversation.
I have had many in the last two weeks and when I have asked this litany of questions, I find myself at a loss as to why almost no one knew what they owned. But they thirsted for individual stocks, because they, like me, think things are better post pandemic. No, that's not a facetious comment. Many, many stocks did better with a stay-at-home economy. A huge number.
So what do I do? I revert to what others do when you are stumped about how to stay in touch with stocks, but want to do less homework. That means buying stocks that are accessible, not stocks like Unity (U) or Snowflake (SNOW) or Twilio (TWLO) or Okta (OKTA) .
I revert to normal businesses people know and I suggest they Google some articles, peruse the conference call, but, above all, like the company's products so you can buy more if it goes down.
Here's some that I have been telling people I like:
First is Ford (F) . I think the Ford lineup is amazing. The electric F-150 series will be incredible. I am eager to get a Maverick for my family, because it is a smaller pickup that will get the job done for the myriad little things I need to do with this farm I bought from that crazy bitcoin foray. I like the competitive edge of the CEO, who says he is going to bury Elon Musk when the Lightning comes out. I even think the Bronco is cool as all get out. Most important, though? I think the chip shortage is ending. My semiconductor friends are telling me the foundries are producing more feature-rich chips and that means Ford can pump out the trucks small business people love and need. Plus, the used car prices at last have plateaued, according to their most important pricing index. Halcyon times.
Second, Costco (COST) : The samples are coming back. Tell me you don't love the samples. You need things in bulk. You want low prices. You want to get all of the things that people don't think of with Costco, like insurance, hearing-aids -- hey, they are a fortune -- jewelry, things around the house. You go and you will buy far more than you first came for. My kind of store.
The kids love this American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) , which we just bought for my charitable trust, which you can follow along by joining the Action Alerts PLUS club. Jay Schottenstein, the CEO, came on "Mad Money" recently and it's clear that his Aerie model has real staying power: 26 consecutive quarters of double digit growth. No flash in the pan, that one. Number one brand in jeans for the 15 to 25 year old group. The best in the mall. How did I know this? I see the credit card bills.
I got up this morning to do my physical therapy. I have been doing it ever since I hurt my back in February. I have this really cool pair of sneakers that fit me perfectly and I love them, but I am fortunate enough to have a vacation house and I am always taking those shoes with me.
So I went on Amazon (AMZN) this morning and lo and behold I saw them for half price. I bought two pairs. Then I went over everything I have bought in the last year and got a bunch of those things. Then I bought a pair of binoculars, because mine were stolen. I paid half price.
Yep, Amazon's universal. I was talking to Alexa, while I was ordering, getting some new music on, asking questions. I saw that despite all of the Sturm und Drang of Amazon being late with things, all the delivery dates were within range. I didn't click on any ads, and I didn't need the speed of Web Services, but the whole thing reminded me about how special the darned company is. I don't care if it's ahead or behind plan for the moment. I would just buy some more when it goes down.
Finally, Apple (AAPL) . I think people who don't own Apple should look what they are holding at this very moment. Yes, right now. Or look at what's in your lap or on the table besides your fork. And then think about the bill you paid last night without knowing it. Think about what you bought in the App store yesterday. Think about what would happen if it would break or get stolen or, left in the Uber (UBER) , or heaven forbid, be dropped into the pool or in the, yes, toilet.
There, that's what you buy in halcyon times. Stocks of companies you know that if they go lower, because things get less halcyon, you are fine with it and buy more. If things go up, believe me, you will participate.
So accept the moment. Don't try for the hard money. Go for the easy kind. That's the best kind.
https://realmoney.thestreet.com/jim-cramer/jim-cramer--15692051
Picture: 牡丹(peony)花開. 恨不得院子裡有一塊地是牡丹園.
「think again: the power of knowing what you don't know」的推薦目錄:
think again: the power of knowing what you don't know 在 Do not tell my boss Facebook 的精選貼文
ทำไมทัศนคติถึงสำคัญมากกว่าความฉลาด?
Carol Dweck เป็นนักจิตวิทยาที่ได้ทุ่มเทชีวิตการงานของเธอเพื่อศึกษาเรื่องทัศนคติและศักยภาพ ซึ่งงานวิจัยล่าสุดของเธอนั้นแสดงให้เห็นว่า “ทัศนคติบ่งบอกถึงความสำเร็จได้มากกว่าระดับไอคิว” เธอพบว่าทัศนคติที่เป็นแกนหลักของคนเราแบ่งเป็นสองประเภท หนึ่งคือ กรอบความคิดแบบจำกัด (Fixed Mindset) สองคือ กรอบความคิดแบบเติบโต (Growth Mindset)
คนที่มี กรอบความคิดแบบจำกัด (Fixed Mindset) จะเป็นคนที่ยึดมั่นในความคิดตนเองและไม่ยอมเปลี่ยนแปลงตนเองเพื่อสิ่งใดๆ ซึ่งการมีวิธีคิดแบบนี้เอง ที่อาจเป็นปัญหาได้เวลาที่พบเจอกับสิ่งที่ตัวเองไม่สามารถรับมือได้ และมันจะทำให้รู้สึกสิ้นหวังและพ่ายแพ้ได้
ส่วนคนที่มี กรอบความคิดแบบเติบโต (Growth Mindset) จะเป็นคนที่มักเชื่อว่าคนเรานั้นสามารถพัฒนาตัวเองได้เสมอ ตราบใดที่เรามีความพยายาม และวิธีคิดแบบนี้เองที่จะทำให้เกิดความก้าวหน้ายิ่งกว่าคนที่มีกรอบความคิดแบบตายตัว แม้ว่าจะมีไอคิวที่ไม่สูงก็ตาม เพราะคนประเภทนี้จะชอบสิ่งที่ท้าทาย และมองว่าสิ่งต่างๆ ที่เข้ามาคือโอกาสในการเรียนรู้ในสิ่งใหม่ๆ
โดยทั่วไปแล้ว การมีความสามารถหรือเป็นคนฉลาดจะทำให้มีความมั่นใจมากกว่าคนอื่นๆ ซึ่งเป็นความจริงเวลาพบเจอกับเรื่องง่ายๆ เท่านั้น แต่ปัจจัยที่สำคัญกว่านั้นก็คือ วิธีการจัดการกับความผิดพลาดและอุปสรรคต่างๆ ต่างหาก โดยคนมีกรอบความคิดแบบเติบโตจะอ้าแขนรับกับอุปสรรคได้อย่างไม่ลังเล
Dweck กล่าวว่าความสำเร็จในชีวิต คือเรื่องของวิธีการจัดการกับความล้มเหลวในชีวิตของคุณนี่แหละ โดยเธอได้อธิบายวิธีที่คนมีกรอบความคิดแบบเติบโตไว้ว่า
“ความล้มเหลวก็เป็นแค่ข้อมูลตัวหนึ่ง ที่เราแปะป้ายเอาไว้ว่ามันคือความล้มเหลว ซึ่งมันทำให้เรารู้ว่า หากวิธีนี้มันไม่ได้ผล งั้นฉันก็จะลองแก้ปัญหาด้วยวิธีอื่นดู”
ไม่ว่าคุณจะเป็นประเภทไหนก็ตาม คุณสามารถเปลี่ยนแปลงและพัฒนาตัวเองให้มีกรอบความคิดแบบเติบโตได้ทั้งนั้น และเรามีวิธีที่จะช่วยปรับมุมมองของคุณให้ดีขึ้นด้วยวิธีดังต่อไปนี้!
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อย่าจมอยู่กับความรู้สึกว่าตัวเองนั้นไร้ค่า
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ใครๆ ก็ต้องเคยมีช่วงเวลาที่รู้สึกว่าตัวเองนั้นไร้ค่าสิ้นดี ซึ่งบททดสอบของคุณก็คือ คุณจะมีปฏิกิริยาตอบรับกับความรู้สึกแบบนี้อย่างไร? คุณจะเลือกเรียนรู้เป็นบทเรียนและก้าวต่อไป หรือจะปล่อยให้ตัวเองจมดิ่งลึกลงไปเรื่อยๆ มีผู้คนที่ประสบความสำเร็จมากมาย ที่ไม่อาจมาถึงจุดๆ นี้ได้ ถ้าหากพวกเขาพ่ายแพ้ให้กับความรู้สึกที่ไร้ค่า ยกตัวอย่างเช่นบุคคลเหล่านี้
* วอลต์ ดิสนีย์ ที่เคยถูกไล่ออกจากบริษัท Kansas City Star เพราะ “ไร้ความคิดสร้างสรรค์และไอเดียดีๆ”
* โอปราห์ วินฟรีย์ ก็เคยถูกไล่ออกจากการเป็นผู้ประกาศข่าวทางโทรทัศน์ในบัลติมอร์ เพราะว่าเธอ “อ่อนไหวกับเรื่องส่วนตัวมากเกินไป”
* เฮนรี่ ฟอร์ด เคยล้มเหลวจากการสร้างบริษัทรถมาแล้วถึงสองครั้งก่อนจะประสบความสำเร็จจากบริษัทฟอร์ด
* สตีเวน สปีลเบิร์ก เคยถูกปฏิเสธจาก USC’s Cinematic Arts School มาหลายต่อหลายครั้งเช่นกัน
ลองจินตนาการดูว่าถ้าพวกเขาเหล่านี้มีกรอบความคิดแบบจำกัด ก็คงยอมแพ้และเลิกล้มความหวังไปแล้ว คนที่มีมีกรอบความคิดแบบเติบโตจะไม่รู้สึกไร้ค่า เพราะรู้ว่าการจะประสบความสำเร็จได้ คุณต้องเต็มใจที่ล้มเหลวและลุกขึ้นใหม่ได้อีกครั้ง
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มีความมุ่งมั่นและหลงใหลในสิ่งที่ทำ
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แน่นอนว่าในโลกนี้ มีคนที่มีพรสวรรค์และเก่งมากกว่าคุณเสมอ แต่คุณสามารถใช้ความมุ่งมั่นและหลงใหลในสิ่งที่คุณทำมาทดแทนพรสวรรค์ที่ขาดหายไปได้ นั่นเป็นสิ่งที่ผลักดันให้คนเราไม่หยุดที่จะพัฒนาตนเอง ยกอย่างเช่น วอร์เรน บัฟเฟตต์ เขาแนะนำว่าให้หาสิ่งที่รักและหลงใหลจริงๆ ด้วยเทคนิคที่เขาเรียกว่า 5/25 โดยให้เขียนสิ่งที่คุณสนใจมากที่สุด 25 อย่าง แล้วก็ตัดออก 20 ข้อ และ 5 ข้อสุดท้ายที่เหลือนั่นแหละ ก็คือสิ่งที่คุณรักมากที่สุดจริงๆ
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ลงมือทำ
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ผู้คนที่มีกรอบความคิดแบบเติบโตไม่ได้เอาชนะความกลัวได้เพราะพวกเขากล้าหาญกว่าคนอื่น แต่เป็นเพราะพวกเขารู้ว่าความกลัวเป็นอารมณ์ที่ทำให้หมดกำลังใจ ซึ่งทางออกที่ดีที่สุดก็คือ การลงมือทำ กรอบความคิดแบบเติบโตทำให้พวกเขามีพลังใจและรู้ว่าคนเราไม่สามารถรอเวลาที่เหมาะสมเพื่อจะก้าวไปข้างหน้าได้หรอก เพราะฉะนั้น การลงมือทำอย่างจริงจังนี่แหละ ที่จะเปลี่ยนความกังวลต่อความล้มเหลวให้กลายเป็นพลังเชิงบวกได้
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ก้าวไปให้ไกลกว่าจุดที่เคยก้าวมา
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คนที่เต็มเปี่ยมไปด้วยกำลังใจ จะไม่ลังเลที่จะทุ่มเทให้กับสิ่งที่ทำ พวกเขาจะผลักดันตัวเองไปให้ไกลกว่าจุดเดิมเสมอ มีเรื่องเล่าเรื่องหนึ่งของ บรูซ ลี กล่าวว่า บรูซมีลูกศิษย์คนหนึ่งที่วิ่งเป็นระยะ 3 ไมล์กับเขาทุกวัน ในวันหนึ่งตอนที่วิ่งใกล้ครบสามไมล์ บรูซก็พูดขึ้นว่า “วิ่งต่ออีกสองไมล์เถอะ!” แต่ด้วยความเหน็ดเหนื่อย ลูกศิษย์ของเขาจึงตอบไปว่า “ถ้าวิ่งต่ออีกสองไมล์ ผมต้องตายแน่ๆ” รู้ไหมว่าบรูซตอบว่ายังไง? “งั้นก็วิ่งซะสิ!” หลังจากวิ่งครบห้าไมล์แล้ว ลูกศิษย์ของเขาก็ทั้งล้าและโกรธมาก บรูซจึงอธิบายให้เขาฟังว่า
“ต่อให้คุณไม่วิ่งต่ออีกสองไมล์ คุณก็อาจต้องตายอยู่ดี ถ้าเอาแต่สร้างขีดจำกัดให้ตัวเอง ทั้งชีวิตนี้ไม่ว่าเรื่องอะไร คุณก็จะมีแต่ขีดจำกัดให้ตัวเองเต็มไปหมด ขีดจำกัดที่แท้จริงน่ะไม่มีหรอก มีก็แต่อุปสรรคที่คุณต้องก้าวข้ามมันไปให้ได้แม้ว่ามันจะฆ่าคุณก็ตาม เพราะคนเราต้องพัฒนาตัวเองอยู่เสมอ”
ถ้าคุณไม่พัฒนาตัวเองขึ้นวันละนิดละหน่อย อาจกลายเป็นว่าคุณจะแย่ลงเรื่อยๆ แทนก็ได้ คุณเองก็ไม่อยากเป็นแบบนั้นหรอกใช่ไหมล่ะ?
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คาดหวังผลลัพธ์
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ผู้คนที่มีกรอบความคิดแบบเติบโตมักจะรู้ว่า พวกเขาจะต้องล้มเหลวอยู่เรื่อยๆ แต่พวกเขาไม่เคยหยุดคาดหวังถึงแม้จะรู้อย่างนั้นก็ตาม การตั้งความหวังกับผลลัพธ์เป็นตัวกระตุ้นให้คุณมีพลังที่จะก้าวเดินต่อไปได้ ลองคิดดูสิว่า…ถ้าหากคุณไม่ตั้งความหวังว่าตัวเองจะต้องประสบความสำเร็จ คุณก็คงไม่พยายามมาถึงจุดนี้หรอก จริงไหม?
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ปรับตัวกับปัญหา
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ไม่มีใครที่ไม่ต้องพบเจอกับความยากลำบาก ผู้คนที่มีกรอบความคิดแบบเติบโตจะใช้ความลำบากในการพัฒนาตัวเอง ไม่ใช่เพื่อดึงให้ถอยหลังลงคลอง เมื่อถูกท้าทายด้วยเหตุการณ์ไม่คาดคิด พวกเขาจะปรับตัวเข้ากับมันจนกว่าจะผ่านพ้นไปได้
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อย่าบ่นเวลาไม่ได้ดั่งใจ
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การบ่นเป็นสัญลักษณ์ของคนที่มีกรอบความคิดแบบจำกัดแบบชัดเจน คนที่มีกรอบความคิดแบบเติบโตจะมองหาทุกโอกาสที่เป็นไปได้เสมอ จึงไม่มีพื้นที่พอสำหรับการบ่น
ขอบคุณบทความดีๆจาก
https://sumrej.com/why-attitude-is-more-important-than-iq/
Source:
https://www.talentsmart.com/…/Why-Attitude-Is-More-Importan…
Why is attitude more important than intelligence?
Carol Dweck is a psychologist who has dedicated her career to studying her attitude and potential. Her recent research suggests that ′′ Attitude represents success beyond IQ level She finds that our core attitudes are divided into two types. One is a limited mind frame (Fixed Mindset). Two is a growing mind frame (Growth Mindset).
A person with a limited frame of mind (Fixed Mindset) will be a person who holds their own mind and doesn't change themselves for anything. Having this own way of thinking can be a problem. Time to encounter things that they can't cope with and it will cause. Feeling hopeless and defeated
Growth Mindset (Growth Mindset) will always be the one who believes that we can develop ourselves as long as we have this effort and method of thinking to make progress beyond the one who has a dead mind frame, even with the IQ. Not tall because these kind of people will like challenging things and see things coming in as learning new things.
Being talented or smart generally makes you more confident than others. It's true when you encounter simple things. But more importantly, it's how to deal with mistakes and obstacles. Growing mindframe will embrace you. Obstacle without hesitation
Dweck said success in life is a matter of how to deal with failure in your life. She explained how people have a growing mind frame.
′′ Failure is just one of the information that we labeled as failure, which makes us know that if this method doesn't work, then I'll try to solve the problem in another way
No matter what type you are, you can change and develop yourself into a growing mind framework. And we have a way to improve your perspective in the following ways!
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Don't be stuck in feeling that you are worthless.
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Everyone has to have a moment when they feel like they are worthless. Your test is how will you react to this feeling? You can either learn as a lesson and move on, or let yourself sink deeper. There are many successful people who can't reach this point if they lose their worthless feelings. For example, these individuals.
* Walt Disney ever got kicked out of Kansas City Star company because of ′′ creativity and good ideas
* Oprah Winfrey was also fired as a television announcer in Baltimore because she was ′′ too sensitive to personal
* Henry Ford once failed to build a car company twice before succeeding from Ford.
* Stevens Spielberg has been rejected from USC's Cinematic Arts School several times as well.
Imagine if they had a limited mind frame, they would have given up and had fallen hope. People with a growing mind frame wouldn't feel worthless. Knowing that to succeed, you would be willing to fail and rise up again.
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Determined and passionate about what you do.
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Sure, there are always more talented and talented people in the world than you, but you can use your commitment and passion for what you do to replace your missing talent. That's what pushes people to never stop developing themselves. For example. Raren Buffett. He suggested to find something truly loving and passionate with a technique he called 5/25, writing down 25 of your most interested in and 20 of them. The rest is what you really love the most.
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Let's do it
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People with a growing mind framework don't conquer fear because they are braver than others. But because they know that fear is a discouraging emotion. The best way out is to do a growing mind framework. It gives them power and knowledge. People can't wait for the right time to move forward. Therefore, taking serious action will turn their worries about failure into a positive power.
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Step beyond the point of ever stepping.
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A full-fledged, supportive person doesn't hesitate to dedicate their way to what they do. They always push themselves further than before. One story of Bruce Lee says Bruce has a disciple who runs 3 miles with him every day one day. When he ran near three miles, Bruce said, ′′ Run two more miles!" But with exhaustion, his disciple said, ′′ If I run two miles, I'm going to die!" Know what Bruce said? ′′ So run!" After a five mile run, his disciple was exhausted and angry. Bruce explained to him.
′′ Even if you don't run for two miles, you will die. If you don't have to limit yourself in this life, you will have limits to yourself. The true limit is not there, but the obstacles you have. Move over it, even if it kills you, because people always develop themselves
If you don't develop yourself a little bit each day, it may turn out to be worse instead. You don't want to be like that, do you?
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Expect results.
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People with a growing mind frame of mind always know that they are going to fail, but they never stop expecting it. Even if they know it, hoping for a result will encourage you to move on. Think about it... if you don't. Wish yourself success, you wouldn't have tried to reach this point, right?
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Adapt to the problem.
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Nobody doesn't have to encounter difficulties. People with a growing mind framework take the struggle to develop themselves, not to pull backwards down the canal. Once challenged with unexpected events, they will adapt to it until they get through.
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Don't complain when it's not as you wish
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Complaining symbolizes a person with a clear, limited-minded framework. A person with a growing mind framework will always look for every possible opportunity, so there's no space for complaining.
Thank you for a great article from
https://sumrej.com/why-attitude-is-more-important-than-iq/
Source:
https://www.talentsmart.com/articles/Why-Attitude-Is-More-Important-Than-IQ-982658569-p-1.htmlTranslated
think again: the power of knowing what you don't know 在 Daphne Iking Facebook 的最佳解答
My sister, Michelle-Ann Iking's 3% chance of conceiving naturally was a success! Here's her story:
(My apologies as I've been overwhelmed with personal matters. I've only managed to get to my desk. So finally got around posting this).
This is the story behind my sister's pregnancy struggle and how she shared her journey over her Facebook page.
Because some may have not caught her LIVE session chat with me (https://www.facebook.com/daphneiking/videos/687743128744960/) , or read her lengthy post (as it's a private page);
she's allowed me to copy and paste it over my wall, in case you need to know more about her thought process on how AND why she focused on the 3% success probability. Read on.
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Posted 10th May 2020.
FB Credit: Michelle-Ann Iking
A week ago today I celebrated becoming a mother to our second, long awaited child.
Please forgive this mother's LONG (self-indulgent) post, journalling what this significant milestone has meant for her personally, for her own fallible memory's sake as well as maybe to share one day with her son.
If all you were wondering was whether I had delivered and if mum and bub are OK, please be assured the whole KkLM family are thriving tremendously, and continue scrolling right along your Newsfeed 😁.
OUR 3% MIRACLE
All babies are miracles... and none more so than our precious Kiaen Aaryan (pronounced KEY-n AR-yen), whose name derives from Sanskrit origins meaning:
Grace of God
Spiritual
Kind
Benevolent
...words espousing the gratitude Kishore and I feel for Kiaen's arrival as our "3% miracle".
He was conceived, naturally, after 3 years of Kishore and I hoping, praying and 'endeavoring'... and only couples for whom the objective switches from pure recreation to (elusive) procreation will understand how this is less fun than it sounds ...
3 years during which time we had consensus from 3 different doctors that we, particularly I (with my advancing age etc etc) had only a 3% chance of natural conception and that our best hope for a sibling for our firstborn, Lara Anoushka, was via IVF.
Lara herself was an 'intervention baby', being one of the 20% of babies successfully conceived through the less intrusive IUI process, after a year and a half of trying naturally and already being told then my age was a debilitating factor.
We had tried another round of IUI for her sibling in 2017 when Lara was a year old. And that time we fell into the ranks of the 80% of would-be parents for whom it would be an exercise in futility... who would go home, comfort each other as best they could, while individually masking their own personal disappointment... hoping for the best, 'the next time around'...
So the improbability ratio of 97% against natural conception of our second baby, as concurred by the combined opinion of 3 medical professionals, was a very real, very daunting figure for us to have to mentally deal with.
Deep, DEEP, down in my heart however, though I had many a day of doubt... I kept a core kernel of faith that somehow, I would again experience the privilege of pregnancy, and again, have a chance at childbirth.
And so, the optimist in me would tell myself, "Well, there have to be people who fall in the 3% bucket... why shouldn't WE be part of the 3%?"
Those who know me well, understand my belief in the Law of Attraction, the philosophy of focusing your mind only on what you want to attract, not on what you don't want, and so even as Kishore and I prepared to go into significant personal debt to attempt IVF in the 2nd half of 2019, I marshalled a last ditch effort to hone in on that 3% chance of natural conception... through research coming across fertility supplements that I ordered from the US and sent to a friend in Singapore to redirect to me because the supplier would not deliver to Malaysia.
I made us as a couple take the supplements in the 3 month 'priming period' in the lead up to the IVF procedure - preconditioning our bodies for optimum results, if you will.
At the same time, I had invested in a sophisticated fertility monitor, with probes and digital sensors for daily tracking of saliva and other unmentionable fluid samples, designed to pinpoint with chemical accuracy my state of fertility on any given day.
(UPDATE: For those interested - I obtained the supplements and Ovacue Fertility Monitor from https://www.fairhavenhealth.com/. Though I had my supplies delivered to a friend in Singapore, and redirected to me here since the US site does not deliver to Malaysia, there are local distributors for these products, you will just have to research the trustworthiness of the vendors yourself...)
I had set an intention - in the 3 months of pre-IVF priming, I would consume what seemed like a pharmacy's worth of supplements, and track fertility religiously... in hopes that somehow, within the 3 month priming period, we would conceive naturally and potentially save ourselves a down payment on a new property... and this was just a projection on financial costs of IVF, not even considering the physical, emotional and mental toll it involves, with no guarantee of a baby at the end of it all...
It was a continuation of an intention embedded even with my first pregnancy, where all the big ticket baby items were consciously purchased for use by a future sibling, in gender neutral colours, in hopes that sibling would be a brother "for a balanced pair", though of course any healthy child would be a welcome blessing.
It was a very conscious determination to always skew my thoughts in service of what the end objective was. For example, when 3+year old Lara would innocently express impatience at not yet having a sibling, at one point suggesting that since we were "taking too long to give her a baby brother/sister", perhaps we should just "go buy a baby from a shop", instead of getting defensive or berating the baby that she herself was, we enlisted Lara's help to pray for her sibling... so in any place of worship, or sacred ground of any kind that we passed thereon, Lara would stop, close her eyes, bow her small head and place her tiny hands together in prayer, reciting earnestly, "Please God, please give me a baby brother or baby sister."
After months and months of watching Lara do this, in the constancy of her childlike chant, Kishore started feeling the pressure of possibly disappointing Lara if her prayer was not answered. Whereas for me, Lara's recitation of her simple wish became like a strengthening mantra, our collective intention imbued with greater power with each repetition, and the goal of a sibling kept very much in the forefront of our minds (hence our calling Lara our 'project manager' in this endeavour).
And somehow in the 2nd month of that 3 month period, a positive + sign appeared on one of the home pregnancy tests I had grown accustomed to taking - my version of the lottery tickets others keep buying in hopes of hitting the jackpot, with all the cyclical anticipation and more often than not, disappointment, that entails...
This time however I was not disappointed.
With God's Grace, (hence 'Kiaen', a variation of 'Kiaan' which means 'Grace of God'), my focus on our joining the ranks of the 3% had materialised.
It seems poetic then, that Kiaen chose to make his appearance on the 3rd May, ironically the same date that his paternal great-grandfather departed this world for the next... such that in the combined words of Kishore and his father Kai Vello Suppiah,
"The 1st generation Suppiah left on 3rd May and the 4th generation Suppiah arrived on 3rd May after 41yrs...
One leaves, another comes, the legacy lives on..."
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KIAEN AARYAN SUPPIAH'S BIRTH STORY
On Sunday 3rd May, I was 40 weeks and 5 days pregnant.
The baby was, in my mind, very UN-fashionably late past his due date of 29th April, so as much as I had willed and 'manifested' the privilege of pregnancy, to say I was keen to be done with it all was an understatement.
In the weeks leading to up to my full term, I had experienced increasingly intense Braxton-Hicks 'practice contractions' - annoying for me for the discomfort involved, stressful for Kishore who was on tenterhooks with the false alarms, on constant alert for when we would actually need to leave home for the hospital.
Having become a Hypnobirthing student and advocate from my first pregnancy with Lara, and thus being equipped with
(1) a lack of fear about childbirth in general and
(2) a basic understanding of how all the sensations I would experience fit into the big picture of my body bringing our baby closer to us,
I was less stressed - content to wait for the baby to be "fully cooked" and come out whenever he was ready... though I wouldn't have minded at all if the cooking time ended sooner, rather than later.
With Lara, I had been somewhat 'forced' into an induced labour, even though she was not yet due, and that had resulted in a 5 DAY LABOUR, a Birth Story for another post, so I was not inclined to chemically induce labour, even though I was assured that for second time mothers, it would be 'much faster and easier'...
That morning, I had a hunch *maybe* that day was the day, because in contrast to previous weeks' sensations of tightening, pressure and even spasms that were concentrated in the front of my abdomen and occasionally shot through my sides and legs, I felt period - like cramping in my lower back which I had not felt before throughout the pregnancy.
It was about 8am in the morning then, and my 'surges' were still relatively mild ('surges' being Hypnobirthing - speak for 'contractions', designed to frame them with the more positive connotations needed to counteract common language in which childbirth is presented as something that is unequivocally painful and traumatic, instead of the miraculous, powerful and natural phenomenon it actually is).
I recall (masochistically?) entertaining the thought of opting NOT to have an epidural JUST TO SEE WHAT IT WOULD BE LIKE...
I figured this would be the last time I would be pregnant and so it would be my 'last chance' to experience 'drug free labour' which, apart from the health benefits for baby and mother, might be *interesting* in a way that people who are curious about what getting a tattoo and skydiving and bungee jumping are like, might find these *interesting*...even knowing there will be pain and risk involved...
Since I have tried tattoos and skydiving (unfortunately not being able to squeeze in bungee-jumping while my life was purely my own to risk at no dependents' possible detriment) a similar curiousity about a no-epidural labour was on my mind...
In the absence of other signs of the onset of labour (like 'bloody show' or my waters breaking), I wanted to wait until the surges were coming every few minutes before we actually left the house for the hospital, not wanting to be one of those couples who rushed in too early and had interminable waits for the next stage in unfamiliar, clinical surroundings and/or were made to go home in an anti-climatic manner.
I was even calm enough through my surges to have the presence of mind to wash and blowdry my hair, knowing if I did deliver soon I would not be allowed this luxury for a while.
Around 9am I asked Kishore to prep for Lara and himself to be dressed and breakfasted so we could head to hospital soon, while I sent messages to family members on both sides informing them 'today might be the day.'
My mother, who had briefly served as a midwife before going back into general nursing and then becoming a nursing tutor, prophetically stated that if what I was experiencing was true labour, "the baby would be out by noon".
The pace in which my surges grew closer together was surprisingly quicker than I expected; and while I asked Lara to "Hurry up with breakfast" with only a tad more urgency than we normally tell her to do, little Missy being prone to dilly-dallying at meals, I probably freaked Kishore out when about 930am onwards, I had to instinctively get on my hands and knees a couple of times, eyes closed, trying to practice the Hypnobirthing breathing techniques I had revised to help along the process of my body birthing our child into the world.
I recall him saying a bit frantically as I knelt at our front door, doubled over as he waited for Lara to complete something or other, "Lara hurry up! Can't you see Mama is in so much pain and you are taking your own sweet time??!!"
SIDETRACK: Just the night before, Lara and I had watched a TV show in which a woman gave birth with the usual histrionics accompanying pop culture depictions of labour.
Lara watched the scene, transfixed.
I told her, simply and matter-of-factly, "That's what Mama has to do to get baby brother out Lara, and that's what I had to do for you also."
In most of interactions with my daughter, I have sought to equip her to face life's situations with calmness, truthful common sense, and ideally a minimum of drama.
Those who know the dramatic diva that Lara can be will know that this is a work-in-progress, but her response to me that night showed me some of my 'teachings' were sinking in:
She looked at me unfazed, "But Mama," she said. "You won't cry and scream like that lady, right? You will be BRAVE and stay calm, right?"
#nopressure.
So as we prepped to leave for the hospital I did indeed attempt to be that role model of calm for her, asking her only for her help in keeping very quiet,
"Because Mama needs to focus on bringing baby brother out and she needs quiet to concentrate...".
As we left the house at 10.11am, I texted Kishore's sister Geetha to please prep to pick up Lara from the hospital, and was grateful Kishore had the foresight to ask our gynae to prepare a letter for Geetha to show any police roadblocks between my in-laws' home in Subang Jaya and the hospital in Bangsar, this all happening under the Movement Control Order (MCO).
To Lara's credit, in the journey over to the hospital, she - probably sensing the gravity of the situation, sat very quietly in her seat at the back, and the silence was punctuated only by my occasional deep intakes of breath and some variation of my Ohmmm-like moans when the sensations were at their height.
By the time we got to Pantai Hospital at around 10.30am, my surges were strong enough I requested a wheelchair to assist me in getting to the labour ward, as I did not trust my own legs to support me... and Kishore would have to wait until Geetha had arrived to take Lara back to my in-laws' house before he himself could go up.
I slumped in the wheelchair and was wheeled up to the labour room with my eyes closed the whole time, trying to handle my surges.
I didn't even look up to see the attendant who pushed me... but did make the effort to thank him sincerely when he handed me over, with what seemed like a palpable sense of relief on his part, to the labour ward nurses.
The nurse attending me at Pantai was calm, steady and efficient. I answered some questions and changed into my labour gown while waiting for Kishore to come up, all the while managing the increasingly intense surges with my rusty Hypnobirthing breathing techniques.
By the time Kishore joined me at around 11am (I know these timings based on the timestamps of the 'WhatsApp live feed' of messages Kishore sent to his family), I was asking the nurse on duty, "How soon can I get an epidural??" thinking what crazy woman thought she could do this without drugs???!!!
The nurse checked my cervix dilation, I saw her bloodied glove indicating my mucous plug had dislodged, and she told me, "Well you are already at 7cm (which, for the uninitiated, is 70% of the way to the 10cm dilation needed for birthing), you are really doing well, if you made it this far without any drugs, if can you try and manage without it... I suspect within 2 hours or less you will deliver your baby and since it will take about that time for the anaesthesiologist to be called, epidural to be administered and kick in... it might all be for nothing... but of course the decision is completely up to you... "
So there I was, super torn, should I risk the sensations becoming worse... or risk the epidural becoming a waste?? And of course I was trying to decide this as my labour surges were coming at me stronger and stronger...
I was in such a dilemma...because as a 'recovering approval junkie' there was also a silly element of approval-seeking involved, ("The nurse thinks I can do this without drugs... maybe I CAN do this without drugs... Yay me!") mixed with that element of curiosity I mentioned earlier ("What if I actually CAN do this without drugs... plenty of other women have done it all over the world since time immemorial.. no big deal, how bad can it be...??") so then I thought I would use the financial aspect to be the 'tiebreaker' in my decision making...
I asked the nurse how much an epidural would cost and when she replied "Around MYR1.5k", I still remember Kishore's incredulous face as I asked the question, i.e."Seriously babe, you are gonna think about money right now? If you need the epidural TAKE IT, don't worry about the money!!!"... and while we are not rich by any stretch of the imagination, thankfully RM1.5k is not a quantum that made me swing towards a decision to "better save the money"...
So in the end, I guess my curiosity won out, and I turned down the epidural "just to see what it would be like and if I had it in me" (in addition of course to avoiding the side effects of any drugs introduced into my and the baby's body).
My labour occuring in the time of coronavirus, it was protocol for me to have a COVID19 test done, so the medical staff could apply the necessary precautions. I had heard from a friend Sharon Ruba that the test procedure was uncomfortable, so when the nurse came with the test kit as I was starting another surge, I asked, "Please can I just finish this surge before I do the test?" as I really didn't think I could multitask tackling multiple uncomfortable sensations in one go.
The COVID19 test involved what felt like a looong, skinny cotton bud being inserted into one nostril... I definitely felt more than a tickle as it went in and up, being told to take deep breaths by the nurse. Then she asked me to "Try to swallow" and I felt it go into my nasal cavities where I didn't think anything could go any further, but was proven wrong when she asked me to swallow again and the swab was probed even deeper. Then she warned me there would be some slight discomfort as she prepared to collect a sample... but at that point all I could think about was:
(i) I really don't have much of a choice
(ii) please let this be over before my next surge kicks in
(iii) if all the people breaking the MCO rules knew what it feels like to do this test maybe they won't put themselves at risk of the need to perform one...
In full disclosure as I was transferred into the actual delivery room at some point after 11am, another nurse offered me 'laughing gas' to ostensibly take some of the edge off... I took the self-operated breathing nozzle passed to me but don't recall it making any difference to my sensations..so didn't use it much as it seemed pretty pointless.
I recall some measure of relief when I heard my gynae Dr. Paul entering the room, greeting Kishore and me, and telling us it was going well and it wouldn't be long now and he would see us again shortly.
From my previous labour with Lara I knew the midwives pretty much take you 90% of the way through the labour and when the Dr is called in you are really at the home stretch, so was very relieved to hear his voice though knowing he would leave and come back later meant it wasn't quite over yet.
I do remember realising when I had crossed the Thinning and Opening Phase of labour to the Birthing Phase, by the change in sensations... it is still amazing to me that as the Hypnobirthing book mentioned, having this knowledge I was instinctively able to switch breathing techniques for the next stage of labour .
Was my opting against epidural the right choice for me?
Overall? Yes.
Don't get me wrong.
I *almost* regretted the decision several times during active labour... especially when I felt my body being taken over by an overwhelming compulsion to push that did not seem conscious and was accompanied by involuntary gutteral moans where I literally just thought to myself, "I surrender, God do with me what you will..." (super dramatic I know but VERY real at the time...).
I think I experienced 3-4 such natural explusive reflexes (?), rhythmically pushing the baby down the birth path, one of which was accompanied by what felt like a swoosh of water coming out of a hose with a diameter the size of a golf ball... this was when I realised my water had finally broken...
The nurses kept instructing me to do different things, to keep breathing, to move to my side, then to move to the middle, to raise my feet... and when I didn't comply, Kishore (who was with me throughout both my labours) tried to help them by repeating the instructions prefaced with "Sayang..." but I basically ignored all the intructions because I felt I had no capacity to direct any part of my body to do anything and someone else would have to physically manoeuvre that body part themselves.
When I heard Dr. Paul's voice again and the flurry of commotion surrounding his presence, I knew the time was close... and when I heard the nurse say to Kishore, "Sir, these are your gloves, for when you cut the baby's cord", it was music to my ears...
I'm very, VERY grateful Kiaen slid out after maybe the 4th of those involuntary pushes... the wave of RELIEF when he came out so quickly... it still boggles my mind that my mother was essentially right and as his birth time was 12.02pm, it was *only* about 1.5 hours between our arrival at the hospital and his arrival into the world.
Kiaen was placed on my chest for skin to skin bonding and remained there for a considerable time.
For our short stay in the hospital he would be with us in my maternity ward number C327... another trivially serendipitous sign for me because he was born on the 3rd (May) and our wedding anniversary is 27th (July).
I was discharged the following day 4th May at about 5.30pm, after I got an all clear on COVID19 and a paediatric surgeon did a small procedure on Kiaen to address a tongue-tie that would affect his breastfeeding latch... making the entire duration of our stay about 31 hours.
I have taken the time and effort to record all this down so that whenever life's challenges threaten to get me down I can remind myself, "Ignore the 97% failure probability, focus on the 3% success probability".
Also that the human condition is miraculous and it is such a privilege to experience it.
To our son Kiaen Aaryan, thank you for coming into our lives and choosing us as your parents.
Even though Papa and I are both zombies trying to settle into a night time feeding routine with you, I look forward to spending not only all future Mother's Days, but every day, with you and your Akka...
And last but not least, to my husband Kishore...without whom none of this would be possible - we did it sayang, I love you ❤️
Photo credit: Stayhome session with Samantha Yong Photography (http://samanthayong.com/)