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ごきげんよう、アスキーのナベコです。
エキナカ軽食の味方Soup Stock Tokyo（スープストック トーキョー）。外出する機会が減って利用する頻度が減った方もいるのではないでしょうか。私もまさにそうです。値段がスープだと考えると高いけど、具沢山で滋味が詰まっていてデトックス気分になれますよね。最近は遠ざかっていたという人にとって朗報なことに、Uber Eatsなどのデリバリーにも対応しています。実は、店内飲食の価格を基準にするとデリバリーとしてはお安いとか。
https://ascii.jp/elem/000/004/067/4067773/
🌻另一個Zoom會議(第二次貼......有補上一些內容)
繼上次的年報導讀會議後, 讓我們再做另一個會議! 這次很榮幸邀請到一位對估值很有見解的股友前輩來帶大家了解估值(恩, 這次我會是主持人, 不是主講人).
主題: 估值(valuation)分享會(Cat: 這不算基礎的估值會議)
主講人: 小揚(from安泰價值投資)
https://www.facebook.com/antaiinvestment (此為小揚的粉絲頁)
參與者: 具基本估值能力. 若打算參加者, 請事先跟我(請私訊)提出一個關於估值的case study, 到時候可在會議中分享(最好是以投影片形式呈現, 這樣到時候好跟大家分享). 若有估值的問題, 也可以提出.
Case study可以是美股, 也可以是台股.
時間: 台灣時間07/10 (周六)晚間９點.
預計一個小時(不會像上次那樣冗長了😅): 前30分鐘由小揚做分享, 後30分鐘大家分享估值案例&提問
進行方式: 以Zoom進行(之後會私訊會議資訊給參與者)
🌻Morgan Stanley Mid-year Investor Outlook: A tricky transition
https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/midyear-2021-global-markets-outlook
🌻在您投資生涯中, 有沒有一些觀念讓您受用很多?
下面這位投資名人的好觀念影響我很深. 他的意思是, 一般投資人, 只要能説出三個買一家公司的理由, 就很夠了. 這也迫使我, 每次在買股票時, 問自己對這家公司的了解有多少. 也會去衡量公司的優點與缺點在哪裡.
"It is vital (重要的) that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks."
全文在此:
Jim Cramer: In Times Like This, Go for the Easy Money
Look at the stocks you own. Can you tell me why you've got them? If you can't answer the following three questions, then have a look at several I like right now.
We've endured the meme stock craziness, with all of its love for heavily shorted stocks. We have watched the collapse of bitcoin to levels viewed as shocking, even if they are still more than double where they were not that long ago. We've dealt with Fed officials making it clear that they are no longer on the side of the bulls or the bears. They are on the side of job growth, but are wary of inflation. We've seen the end of the rush to get vaccines, which means that millions of people are going to get the new COVID variant, because there is no natural immunity to it. We've watched as the hopes for an infrastructure bill have collapsed. We've endured shortages of everything from chips to plastic to imported goods and labor.
And we're still standing, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Yep, we are in one of those halcyon moments, where the masks are off -- even if they shouldn't be -- and Americans are back doing what they do best: consume, spend, go out to eat and then consume and spend some more.
There are times in the stock market where the collective mindset is revealed. This is one of those times: Things are cool, it's not a big moment, there's no real news for a bit, it's the historically strong period and we can reach some conclusions about where we are.
When things are like this, it is important to remember that buyers like to revert to tried-and-true companies that thrive no matter what. These are companies that have an edge and are better at what they do than other companies.
You know that I am a great believer in index funds, that the average person doesn't have the time or the inclination to research individual stocks. It's a difficult barrier. I think you need to make time to read the quarterly report and listen to the conference call, to Google articles and, if possible, get some research about the companies you own. It is vital that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks. I am reminded by this, because, once again, without a mask, I can be recognized and if I am not holding "Nvidia the Second," I can carry on a conversation.
I have had many in the last two weeks and when I have asked this litany of questions, I find myself at a loss as to why almost no one knew what they owned. But they thirsted for individual stocks, because they, like me, think things are better post pandemic. No, that's not a facetious comment. Many, many stocks did better with a stay-at-home economy. A huge number.
So what do I do? I revert to what others do when you are stumped about how to stay in touch with stocks, but want to do less homework. That means buying stocks that are accessible, not stocks like Unity (U) or Snowflake (SNOW) or Twilio (TWLO) or Okta (OKTA) .
I revert to normal businesses people know and I suggest they Google some articles, peruse the conference call, but, above all, like the company's products so you can buy more if it goes down.
Here's some that I have been telling people I like:
First is Ford (F) . I think the Ford lineup is amazing. The electric F-150 series will be incredible. I am eager to get a Maverick for my family, because it is a smaller pickup that will get the job done for the myriad little things I need to do with this farm I bought from that crazy bitcoin foray. I like the competitive edge of the CEO, who says he is going to bury Elon Musk when the Lightning comes out. I even think the Bronco is cool as all get out. Most important, though? I think the chip shortage is ending. My semiconductor friends are telling me the foundries are producing more feature-rich chips and that means Ford can pump out the trucks small business people love and need. Plus, the used car prices at last have plateaued, according to their most important pricing index. Halcyon times.
Second, Costco (COST) : The samples are coming back. Tell me you don't love the samples. You need things in bulk. You want low prices. You want to get all of the things that people don't think of with Costco, like insurance, hearing-aids -- hey, they are a fortune -- jewelry, things around the house. You go and you will buy far more than you first came for. My kind of store.
The kids love this American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) , which we just bought for my charitable trust, which you can follow along by joining the Action Alerts PLUS club. Jay Schottenstein, the CEO, came on "Mad Money" recently and it's clear that his Aerie model has real staying power: 26 consecutive quarters of double digit growth. No flash in the pan, that one. Number one brand in jeans for the 15 to 25 year old group. The best in the mall. How did I know this? I see the credit card bills.
I got up this morning to do my physical therapy. I have been doing it ever since I hurt my back in February. I have this really cool pair of sneakers that fit me perfectly and I love them, but I am fortunate enough to have a vacation house and I am always taking those shoes with me.
So I went on Amazon (AMZN) this morning and lo and behold I saw them for half price. I bought two pairs. Then I went over everything I have bought in the last year and got a bunch of those things. Then I bought a pair of binoculars, because mine were stolen. I paid half price.
Yep, Amazon's universal. I was talking to Alexa, while I was ordering, getting some new music on, asking questions. I saw that despite all of the Sturm und Drang of Amazon being late with things, all the delivery dates were within range. I didn't click on any ads, and I didn't need the speed of Web Services, but the whole thing reminded me about how special the darned company is. I don't care if it's ahead or behind plan for the moment. I would just buy some more when it goes down.
Finally, Apple (AAPL) . I think people who don't own Apple should look what they are holding at this very moment. Yes, right now. Or look at what's in your lap or on the table besides your fork. And then think about the bill you paid last night without knowing it. Think about what you bought in the App store yesterday. Think about what would happen if it would break or get stolen or, left in the Uber (UBER) , or heaven forbid, be dropped into the pool or in the, yes, toilet.
There, that's what you buy in halcyon times. Stocks of companies you know that if they go lower, because things get less halcyon, you are fine with it and buy more. If things go up, believe me, you will participate.
So accept the moment. Don't try for the hard money. Go for the easy kind. That's the best kind.
https://realmoney.thestreet.com/jim-cramer/jim-cramer--15692051
Picture: 牡丹(peony)花開. 恨不得院子裡有一塊地是牡丹園.
如何在財務上評估是否加入新創公司- Financial evaluation for startup
最近幾年新創很火， 從這 2 年超多熱門新創上市， 到上次直播訪問 “前 Instagram Tech Lead Jocelin 及前臉書 PM Wen 分享放棄矽谷高薪工作、海歸回台灣創業之歷程” 以及聽聞許多朋友加入新創公司，剛好我最近有機會學習評估新創公司， 也把我的學習整理分享出來給想要了解的朋友。
如何評估新創公司給予的股票或選擇權？
上市公司股票價格及流通股數容易查詢， 但當拿到新創公司的 offer 時候， 可能會得到比如說 10,000 股，這個時候我們需要詢問公司所有在外的股數 (Total diluted shares)來評估給予我們的股數在整個公司的股數中所佔的比例。此外， VC 投資一般是拿 Preferred stock， 轉換成 common stock 通常會乘於一個倍數， 所以計算上要考慮到這個部分。
有些時候公司不願意透露這些資訊， 可以和 recruiter 談說我們願意簽署 NDA 來得到這些財務上的資料。 如果 recruiter 不清楚這些細節， 可以再要求 recruiter 幫忙了解詳情來告訴我們。
正式資料部分， 一般 startup 依照規定會需要準備 409A 給 IRS， 在新創早期的時候， 可能每年會準備一次， 在比較後期的時候， 從每半年需要更新到每季更新甚至每個月更新都有可能。 從 409A 可以了解公司的估值 (valuation)、 股票每股的估值、及公司對於未來的成長等等的評估。
新創公司的出場方式？
一般來說新創公司有 3 種結果: IPO 上市、被收購、公司關門。 公司都會宣傳他們的目標是上市， 但在大部分情況下， 2 或 3 選項是比較常見的。 如果是被收購的情況， 我們可以先預想看看公司比較有什麼可能是被哪種公司收購？ 對象公司是否常會有大動作的收購有潛力的新創團隊公司。這幾年灣區有許多自動駕駛的新創公司， 但目前全世界比較有規模可以自己生產汽車的車廠， 大概就是 20 家左右， 當一家車廠買了一家自動駕駛新創公司， 代表剩下自動駕駛新創公司要競爭少一家的潛在車廠買家， 可能出場的機會又變低了一些。
新創估值如何看？
看過往融資的紀錄是不是被知名 VC 投資， 如果剛好 VC 是在新創產業有很好的投資紀錄， 是一個很好的加分。 每個 VC及每個合夥人都有其擅長的領域，這個部分可以推薦看一下 The Midas List (每年更新，各個領域及地區都有分類)。
此外， 如果一個 VC 領投了一輪融資， 再下一輪也有參與， 甚至領投了不同輪的融資， 代表 VC 極度看好這家新創， 是一個很好指標。 最近我看到的一個例子是火紅的 Clubhouse， Andreessen Horowitz 領投了 A 和 B 輪的融資， 投資 VC 的合夥人是 Andrew Chen， 之前在 Uber 是做 Rider Growth， 專攻 Growth Hack 方面。 當然每個 VC 都有其投資準則， 比如說知名的 YC (Y Combinator) 就只投種子輪，有些 VC 只投早期， 有些只投晚期，所以看每個階段的融資的 VC 也有許多可以了解的地方。
新創成功的方式？
我聽到許多分享， 講到公司成功仰賴好的執行團隊、董事會成員、及投資者。 公司的產品、概念可能會一直修改， 直到找到 product market fit， 但有一个好的公司組成， 會讓公司在試錯的過程更好更快的找出公司可以成功的方向。 工程師面試都會了解公司的 tech stack， 但公司的商業模式其實是比公司用什麼 tech stack 更能決定公司是否可以成功。
新創公司的比較？
評估新創公司可以從類似公司的 growth rate, churn rate, retention rate 來做比較。 公司的 burn rate 或是每個月/每季的燒錢情況也可以了解公司的成長是否可以持續， 畢竟要維持高成長是很花錢的！
是否要加入新創？
我自己在轉職軟體工程師一開始也是在新創公司， 新創有動作靈活、在公司負責的業務可能比較多元、以及可以跟著公司快速發展得到好的歷練。 這個部分每個人考慮都不一樣， 目前來看， 我看到許多離開大公司加入新創的人都注重開闊眼界、以及得到特殊的發展經歷 (創立團隊、從無到有開發產品、或是特別的學習機會等)， 這些遠比短期賺錢對他們更重要。 畢竟 Money will come if you’re successful and if the company is successful (如果你成功、或者公司成功的話， 錢自然會來)。
你會怎麼評估新創公司的機會呢？ 歡迎留言分享交流呢！
原部落格原文：http://bit.ly/30EMgQQ
ＦＸ・株・先物取引の随時報告を行ってますので応援頂けると幸いです。
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IG証券のノックアウト・オプション
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FXで億トレーダーが使っている手法を公開します！（IG証券ノックアウト・オプション）
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【目次】
0:00 無能なおっさんの動画へようこそ
1:45 買ってよかった株の銘柄をいくつか紹介します！
4:22 一体いくら儲けたのかを公開しちゃいます！
5:49 これからどうしていくのか？について
#投資
#結果
#株式
#FX
#株
#オレ的ゲーム速報
#為替
影片中我找美股靈感來源的網站還有這些👇
✅看財報我喜歡：https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnas/aapl/quote
✅找股息發放優質的股息股：https://www.gurufocus.com/guru/warren+buffett/stock-picks
✅看名人持有的股票：https://www.gurufocus.com/guru/warren+buffett/stock-picks
✅跟大盤ETF比較：https://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/tools/sector-tracker/charting
✅Jitta選股也好用：https://www.samchoulove.com/jitta-introduction/
美股新手#1✅ 美股開戶前準備 別犯投資新手犯的錯 如何紮實穩定地進入市場
https://youtu.be/-FMjgHPMDz4
美股新手#2✅如何找美股好股票？找靈感？我這樣規劃美股投資組合！
https://youtu.be/tI6Iy9xIB-s
美股新手#3✅長期投資V.S.短線操作 哪派比較賺？
https://youtu.be/TD7bc76Ttik
美股新手#4✅公開我買的股票！投資第一個月到底..... 新手股票健檢 FT.大天使 Peggie
https://youtu.be/hRHeboVHEZo
美股新手#5✅送對禮物才會增值！我買到實體的迪士尼股票了！
https://youtu.be/NhoNKJNdckY
美股新手#6✅超真實！曝光我的投資帳戶 美股投資半年成果很滿意～
https://youtu.be/nMO8TLHV1wE
美股新手#7✅愛馬仕LV越買越賺錢 包跟股票我都要😍女生的精品保養品絕對是好投資
https://youtu.be/Lt_LeNuoCSg
適合想學習扎實選股技巧、巴菲特價值投資方式、找好公司👇
📌巴菲特線上學院 3小時價值投資分享會，這個分享會就已經交很多基礎觀念，且不強迫推銷，很值得去聽！「蹦拉粉絲免報名費」：https://reurl.cc/nnZlM8
📌巴菲特線上學院存錢課（目前沒開放，上美股投資課程送存錢課）：https://reurl.cc/nnZlM8
適合懶人、你不想看盤只想用最簡單方式打造被動收入👇
📌YALE美股被動式投資課程 ：https://bon.pros.is/3gqt27
📌TD開戶最詳細教學推薦大天使這支：https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pGCXozLmGNA&t=12s
📌找尋適合自己的卷商推薦市場先生文章：https://rich01.com/us-stocks-broker-choose/
※這支影片不是商業合作影片，但課程報名成功我會有聯盟獎金，如果這支影片對你有幫助，歡迎用我的推薦連結報名：）※
#冰蹦拉 #美股投資 #美股 #美股新手
＝＝＝＝＝＝＝
🔔喜歡我的影片歡迎訂閱我的頻道：https://pse.is/JMKB2
🔔記得開啟訂閱旁邊小鈴鐺，才可以及時收到影片通知唷～
＝＝＝＝＝＝＝
///這裡可以找到更多的冰蹦拉///
💙blog： https://miha.tw
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【小資購屋筆記系列影片】
✨史上最貴購物！蹦拉宅開箱：https://youtu.be/HBdaMqvlTh0
✨我看屋四年的小資新手買屋心路歷程：http://bon.piee.pw/E8MMW
✨新手驗屋注意事項：http://bon.piee.pw/JUSFD
✨35歲前快速有效率存到買房頭期款的方法！：http://bon.piee.pw/JRJB5
【比電視節目還精彩的旅遊Vlog】
✨埃及看金字塔：https://youtu.be/ZwJP13S-tEg
✨土耳其搭熱氣球：https://youtu.be/uT5gmj3kebs
✨北海道滑雪：https://youtu.be/AWoibgaGsew
✨紐西蘭自駕：https://youtu.be/hpU8VUKEZ7k
✨首爾姊妹購物：https://youtu.be/6O2ElmkDDGY
✨美到爆炸潛水系列：https://youtu.be/9yhNCY4QjZE
【懶人理財教學】
✨3個不動腦存旅行基金的方法http://bon.piee.pw/HC236
✨長途旅行出國玩帶多少錢？：http://bon.piee.pw/GE7FT
✨6個簡單好上手的理財APP：http://bon.piee.pw/JUVJJ
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大家還記得「老外回覆你的意見」這個單元嗎？我們竟然已經六年沒做啦！郝毅博這次將好好回覆大家的意見，談談家庭、節目停播，以及從未說過的【那些故事】。
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?訂閱老外節目：http://bit.ly/2ZFnlue
?老外影片經常被黃標，請支持我們： http://bit.ly/ToLaoWai
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?像你爸媽一樣追蹤老外臉書：
✅https://www.facebook.com/benhedgesntd
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?我們也有沒什麼人看的推特，幫忙增加點人氣！
✅https://twitter.com/laowaintd
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