最近,我在「TIME時代」雜志的專欄文章裡,向全球的讀者介紹了大陸「世界工廠」的+AI自動化升級。隨著勞動力成本的上漲,工業自動化、智慧化勢必是大陸製造業的一劑特效藥。自動化能讓運營成本下降,但仍能讓中國大陸保持生產品質、流程、供應鏈維度的優勢。AI賦能產業升級的願景或許還需多年才能實現,但當下的大陸已經讓未來可期。
以下是專欄文章全文,經TIME授權翻譯轉載:
「中國世界工廠 + AI 的未來」
多年來,中國大陸一直被喻為「世界工廠」,即便在全球其他經濟體紛紛遭遇新冠疫情重擊的2020年,大陸製造產業仍然維持穩健的增長范式,全年產值高達3.854萬億美元,占到全球市場近三分之一。
但如果你腦中的大陸工廠是傳統的「血汗工廠」,是時候修正你的刻板印象了。大陸經濟已經迅速地從疫情衝擊下復蘇,疫情同時催化了各種各樣人工智慧(AI)的應用場景加速實現。自2014年以來,中國大陸的AI專利申請量已經超越美國,至今維持全球領先。在學術領域,中國大陸的AI研究論文發表數量、AI期刊的引用量,也雙雙在近年超過了美國。在產業方面,AI應用在大陸的落地速度超越世界其他國家和地區,具有商業價值的AI應用如今開始百花齊放,整合了軟體、硬體和機器人技術的新一代自動化揭開序曲,AI賦能傳統行業的能量,正在蓄勢待發地重塑各行各業。
人類社會至今經歷了三次不同的工業革命:蒸汽革命、電力革命和資訊革命。我相信,AI將會是推動全球第四次工業革命的核心引擎,在世界各地點燃數位化和自動化的變革,而這波前所未有的硬科技浪潮,將由中國來引領實踐。
由於勞動人口減少和新增人口放緩,中國大陸的傳統產業正面臨著勞動力成本上升的巨大壓力,AI正是解決這個難題的技術解答。人工智慧不僅能夠降低運營成本,提高生產效率,擴大整體產能,還有望能帶來收入的增長。
例如,創新工場投資的廣州極飛科技是一家致力於未來農業的AI科技公司,極飛將無人機、機器人和感測器部署在稻田、麥田和棉花田裡,用技術賦能農業中的播種、農藥噴灑、栽種管理、甚至天氣監測環節。用於作物噴灑的極飛科技R150農業無人車已經被推廣到了英國,應用在蘋果、草莓、黑莓等多種經濟作物的種植流程中。
一些大陸的創新公司正積極把機器人拓展到意想不到的場景。總部位於北京的鎂伽是創新工場投資的生命科學智慧自動化公司,他們和實驗室、製藥公司、高校合作,憑藉AI+機器人技術的積累,用自動化解決方案執行實驗室中勞動密集、重複性高、但需要高度精確的任務和流程,同時機器人作業也將盡最大可能保護實驗室人員降低實驗過程中的感染風險。
除了創業公司,我們看到幾家成熟的龍頭企業也開始積極擁抱AI。創新工場參與了有28年歷史的中力電動叉車,這家頭部的鋰電叉車製造商已經推出了能夠在工廠、倉庫自主運行的無人叉車,並且無需對運行環境進行改造,能快速實現從手動到電動到自動駕駛的搬運賦能創新。此外,擁有50多年歷史的領先客車製造商-宇通集團,與自動駕駛獨角獸企業-文遠知行戰略合作,已在大陸三個城市的馬路上運行全無人駕駛小巴。
接著會發生什麼?我大膽預見,在更長遠的未來,機器人和AI將接管大多數產品的製造、設計、交付甚至營銷——很可能將生產成本降低到和原物料成本相差無幾。未來的機器人有能力自我複製和自我修復,甚至做到部分自我反覆運算設計。房屋和公寓將交由AI主導設計,使用預製建築模塊,交由機器人像搭積木似地築樓蓋房。無人公交、無人摩托等隨傳隨到的自動化未來交通系統,能將我們安全無虞地送達想去的地方。
這些願景成為現實或許還需要多年,但此時的大陸正在積極鋪墊引領新一代自動化革命的基石。可期的是,中國工廠的實力將不僅僅體現在產能上,而將逐步彰顯在智慧上。
本文經「TIME時代」授權進行中文編譯,原文如下:
China Is Still the World's Factory — And It's Designing the Future With AI
BY KAI-FU LEE
For many years now, China has been the world’s factory. Even in 2020, as other economies struggled with the effects of the pandemic, China’s manufacturing output was $3.854 trillion, up from the previous year, accounting for nearly a third of the global market.
But if you are still thinking of China’s factories as sweatshops, it’s probably time to change your perception. The Chinese economic recovery from its short-lived pandemic blip has been boosted by its world-beating adoption of artificial intelligence (AI). After overtaking the U.S. in 2014, China now has a significant lead over the rest of the world in AI patent applications. In academia, China recently surpassed the U.S. in the number of both AI research publications and journal citations. Commercial applications are flourishing: a new wave of automation and AI infusion is crashing across a swath of sectors, combining software, hardware and robotics.
As a society, we have experienced three distinct industrial revolutions: steam power, electricity and information technology. I believe AI is the engine fueling the fourth industrial revolution globally, digitizing and automating everywhere. China is at the forefront in manifesting this unprecedented change.
Chinese traditional industries are confronting rising labor costs thanks to a declining working population and slowing population growth. The answer is AI, which reduces operational costs, enhances efficiency and productivity, and generates revenue growth.
For example, Guangzhou-based agricultural-technology company XAG, a Sinovation Ventures portfolio company, is sending drones, robots and sensors to rice, wheat and cotton fields, automating seeding, pesticide spraying, crop development and weather monitoring. XAG’s R150 autonomous vehicle, which sprays crops, has recently been deployed in the U.K. to be used on apples, strawberries and blackberries.
Some companies are rolling out robots in new and unexpected sectors. MegaRobo, a Beijing-based life-science automation company also backed by Sinovation Ventures, designs AI and robots to safely perform repetitive and precise laboratory work in universities, pharmaceutical companies and more, reducing to zero the infection risk to lab workers.
It’s not just startups; established market leaders are also leaning into AI. EP Equipment, a manufacturer of lithium-powered warehouse forklifts founded in Hangzhou 28 years ago, has with Sinovation Ventures’ backing launched autonomous models that are able to maneuver themselves in factories and on warehouse floors. Additionally Yutong Group, a leading bus manufacturer with over 50 years’ history, already has a driverless Mini Robobus on the streets of three cities in partnership with autonomous vehicle unicorn WeRide.
Where is all this headed? I can foresee a time when robots and AI will take over the manufacturing, design, delivery and even marketing of most goods—potentially reducing costs to a small increment over the cost of materials. Robots will become self-replicating, self-repairing and even partially self-designing. Houses and apartment buildings will be designed by AI and use prefabricated modules that robots put together like toy blocks. And just-in-time autonomous public transportation, from robo-buses to robo-scooters, will take us anywhere we want to go.
It will be years before these visions of the future enter the mainstream. But China is laying the groundwork right now, setting itself up to be a leader not only in how much it manufactures, but also in how intelligently it does it.
Source:https://time.com/6084158/china-ai-factory-future/
同時也有1部Youtube影片,追蹤數超過75萬的網紅志祺七七 X 圖文不符,也在其Youtube影片中提到,✔︎ 成為七七會員(幫助我們繼續日更,並享有會員專屬福利):https://bit.ly/3eYdLKp ✔︎ 訂閱志祺七七頻道: http://bit.ly/shasha77_subscribe ✔︎ 追蹤志祺IG :https://www.instagram.com/shasha77.daily...
「journal economic」的推薦目錄:
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journal economic 在 PanSci 科學新聞網 Facebook 的精選貼文
【#科學腦洞時間】延期一年的 #2020東京奧運 真的是看得人熱血沸騰啊🔥🔥🔥
看著賽事的時候,也會讓人很想幻想一下:如果夏季奧運辦在台灣,會怎樣呢?
現在,就讓我們用科學的角度來剖析剖析!
_
⭐ 出口暴增!全民發大財?
能舉辦奧運,說不定可以發財喔!有研究發現,舉辦像是奧運啦、世博啦這種大型盛會,能讓國家的出口成長將近 20%、30%,這種神奇的現象,被稱為「奧運效應」(The Olympic Effect )。
這種效應的威力巨大而且持久,光是在籌辦期間便能大幅成長,一直延續到賽事期間。
但也別高興得太早,緊接著而來的是「後奧運效應」:場館閒置、失業人口增加、財政負擔......
所以說啦,到底能不能靠奧運賺錢,其實還是要看主辦方原本的實力而定。
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🤮 濕熱夏天快融化!中暑嘔吐很難熬
對於運動員來說,在濕濕熱熱的台灣舉辦奧運,可能不是件太開心的事情。
當溫濕度過高、身題無法順利散熱時,很容易造成中暑或熱衰竭,損害運動員的大腦、肝臟、腎臟等等器官QQ
像是本屆東京奧運,就有選手因為高溫的原因,在賽後嘔吐不止,實在非常辛苦。
如果真要在台灣辦奧運,馬拉松、鐵人三項以及許多室外運動可能都會需要調整比賽時間。
_
🥇 在我老家 94 讚!金銀銅牌滾滾來!
在台灣辦奧運最讓人快樂的事,就是自家選手們能獲得更好的成績啦!
基本上呢,能在自家舉辦奧運可是非常幸福的,因為能有一堆家鄉的觀眾,為國手的比賽過程帶來滿滿元氣。
此外,運動員不用長途旅行、能在熟悉的環境裡發揮,也可能提升表現,甚至連裁判都比較有可能站在選手這一邊(噓)
雖然隨著比賽項目越來越多樣,現在奧運的主場優勢已經不像早年那樣明顯,而且主場優勢本身也會跟比賽種類有關,不過,既然都是腦洞,當然希望我們能多拿下幾面獎牌囉!!
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如果奧運真的能辦在台灣,你覺得還會發生什麼有趣的事呢?
_
參考資料:
The Conversation〈Tokyo Olympics without crowds: will the home nation’s medal chances suffer?〉
https://theconversation.com/tokyo-olympics-without-crowds-will-the-home-nations-medal-chances-suffer-164267
The Economic Journal〈The Olympic Effect〉
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2010.02407.x
______________
斗內泛科學、支持好科學!
你的支持,是我們前進的力量,贊助泛科學:https://lihi1.com/mJSba
journal economic 在 貓的成長美股異想世界 Facebook 的最讚貼文
🌻上周六的估值會議影片, 已經將part 1上傳至YouTube. 股友分享的case study之後會再分享:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qvSFMAKkOo8
謝謝參與的股友們!
🌻整理了一下最近的一些市場狀態(from WSJ):
1. S&P 500很安靜; 從去年10月後, 就沒有超過5%的修正.
(上次SPY那麼安靜, 是在2017時(那時候的安靜期也比現在長), 接下來在2018就有一個劇烈的修正).
2. Russell 2000盤整了一段時間
-->有可能是之前漲多了(或是投資人在觀望經濟前景?); 財報好的話, 或許能繼續推升(the outsize earnings growth by small-caps is expected to continue throughout the year, with Russell 2000 profits projected to more than quadruple (四倍) from a year earlier in the third quarter, while S&P 500 earnings rise above 25%).
The Russell 2000 traded at the end of June at 17.7 times its projected earnings over the next 12 months, compared with 21.5 times for the Russell 1000 large-cap index, according to BofA Global Research.
Analysts at RBC Capital Markets said in a recent research report that small-cap stocks have tended to outperform large-caps when economic growth is above its long-term average. That is expected to be the case this year and next, but potentially not in 2023, they wrote.
“Small-caps being more sensitive to economic acceleration, as that slows down, I think the relative attractiveness of small-caps will subside a little bit,” said David Joy, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial Inc.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/small-stocks-look-to-extend-winning-streak-11625650200
3. TINA(there is no alternative to stocks)
因為低利率以及紓困案, 資金充裕, 跑到股市, 但因投資人對經濟前景的不確定性(可能也加上散戶投資人資金充沛), 導致類股輪動劇烈(sharp & swift), 也導致成長股與價值股的正相關性變低(近期兩者是同時在漲)(“You’ve got lots of volatility within the market buy not a lot of volatility of the market.”)
4. 而上周的Fed會議紀錄, 也顯示出官員們開始debate何時要做資金退場的動作.
Fed的動作, 以及接下來的財報季, 會給投資人一個方向. 也要注意labor market(“It hasn’t made enough progress” for the Fed to pull back on stimulus programs”).
5. 目前的一些問題: Delta variant, labor shortage, bottleneck(供應鏈), etc.
🌻Q3的財報季要開始了. 本周由銀行股打頭陣. 附上本周發表公司財報一覽表.
🌻有不少年輕世代, 會利用交友軟體, 來找普通朋友, 不是用軟體來找對象.
In a recent survey of more than 300 members of Generation Z aged 16 to 24 in the U.S., 35% said they have used dating apps to make platonic friends over the past 12 months, according to OnePulse, a consumer insight app and web portal, which conducted the poll for The Wall Street Journal. Nearly 27% said they used dating apps to make friends because they were lonely in lockdown. More women than men—39% vs. 29%—said they used dating apps to make platonic friends.
Looking for a Friend Without Benefits? Try Match, Bumble and Tinder.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/looking-for-a-friend-without-benefits-try-match-bumble-and-tinder-11625675336
Picture: Feeling agitated. 被關了一年多, 其實最想去的地方之一, 是美術館, 或是博物館. 在YouTube上看影片的感覺, 就是跟現場親臨不一樣. Anyway. 從今天開始, 我會把之前從museums拍到的一些照片在這邊分享. 也算是做個回憶. 下面這張是Washington D.C.的National Art Gallery所珍藏的Magnolia: https://www.nga.gov/collection/art-object-page.93464.html
journal economic 在 志祺七七 X 圖文不符 Youtube 的精選貼文
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#牛奶 #優越感
重點:
00:00 前導
01:39 右翼人士與牛奶的關聯
03:19 能喝牛奶的人種比較優秀?!
04:43 我們原本都有乳糖不耐
05:30 考古研究的證據是?
07:03 牛奶何時成為餐桌常客?
08:39 牛奶普及帶來的各種問題
10:06 我們的觀點
11:03 提問
10:44 結尾
【 製作團隊 】
|企劃:蛋糕說話時屑屑請閉嘴
|腳本:蛋糕說話時屑屑請閉嘴
|編輯:土龍
|剪輯後製:Pookie
|剪輯助理:歆雅、珊珊
|演出:志祺
——
【 本集參考資料 】
→人類也會被馴化?從乳糖不耐症,看人類基因的轉變——《祖先的故事》:https://bit.ly/37j9DCu
→牛奶:新納粹的象徵:https://bit.ly/2Vaoaed
→考古探密:奶與蜜: https://bit.ly/39pWxpM
→乳糖不耐症的亞洲人為什麼特別多?從喝牛奶的歷史談起:https://bit.ly/2KQEgrH
→乳糖不耐症怎麼辦?如何改善與治療?專家圖文完整教學:https://bit.ly/2Jj5Ixh
→為何牛奶會讓人「小時好好,長大拉拉」?乳糖不耐和基因調控──《生命如何創新》:https://bit.ly/3ljzsqZ
→德國青銅時代的戰士們,大多乳糖不耐:https://bit.ly/3mjibzQ
→衛生福利部國民健康署:https://bit.ly/2VaoyJH
→Alkon, A. H., & Agyeman, J. (Eds.). (2011). Cultivating food justice: Race, class, and sustainability. MIT press.
→Archaeology: The milk revolution:https://go.nature.com/2JpUwza
→Are the US Dietary Guidelines on Milk Racist?:https://bit.ly/39n41K8
→Bertron, P., Barnard, N. D., & Mills, M. (1999). Racial bias in federal nutrition policy, Part I: The public health implications of variations in lactase persistence. Journal of the National Medical Association, 91(3), 151–157.
→Cohen, M., & Otomo, Y. (Eds.). (2017). Making Milk: The Past, Present and Future of Our Primary Food. Bloomsbury Publishing.
→Doctor Explains Why Pro-Dairy USDA Dietary Guidelines Are Racist:https://bit.ly/3fMvaaz
→Dupuis, E. (2002). Nature's Perfect Food: How Milk Became America's Drink. New York; London: NYU Press. Retrieved November 12, 2020, from:http://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt9qfmj5
→Freeman, A. (2013). The unbearable whiteness of milk: Food oppression and the USDA. UC Irvine L. Rev., 3, 1251.
→Got milk? How lactose tolerance influenced economic development:https://to.pbs.org/36eEAIP
→Got Milk? Neo-Nazi Trolls Sure as Hell Do:https://bit.ly/39sODMB
→Got Nazis? Milk Is New Symbol Of Racial Purity For White Nationalists:https://bit.ly/2JiNigi
→How the alt-right uses milk to promote white supremacy:https://bit.ly/3fKh8Gl
→Is milk healthy? Canada's new food guide says not necessarily:https://bbc.in/3o1aNtc
→McClure SB, Magill C, Podrug E, Moore AMT, Harper TK, Culleton BJ, et al. (2018) Fatty acid specific δ13C values reveal earliest Mediterranean cheese production 7,200 years ago. PLoS ONE 13(9): e0202807. :https://bit.ly/3q7rPb0
→Milk, a symbol of neo-Nazi hate:https://bit.ly/2J7iNKB
→Miller, Alex. ‘White Power Milk: Art, Or Real, Or Advertising?’ VICE. 1 June 2011.
→Neolithic Europeans were lactose intolerant:https://bit.ly/3lfIHJ5
→No use crying:The ability to digest milk may explain how Europe got rich:https://econ.st/39sOIQp
→Smith, Jack. ‘Milk is the New Creamy Symbol of White Racial Purity in Donald Trump’s America.’ Mic Magazine.
→Stănescu, V. (2018). White Power Milk’: Milk, Dietary Racism, and the ‘Alt-Right. Animal Studies Journal, 7(2), 103-128.
→The Troubling Link Between Milk And Racism:https://bit.ly/39nF1CM
→Valenze, D. (2011). Milk: a local and global history. Yale University Press.
→Why humans have evolved to drink milk:https://bbc.in/39o7ckH
→WHY IS MILK BEING CALLED A WHITE SUPREMACIST SYMBOL?:https://bit.ly/33nN2Uo
→Why White Supremacists Are Chugging Milk (and Why Geneticists Are Alarmed):https://nyti.ms/3fIt7nT
→Wiley, A. S. (2007). Transforming milk in a global economy. American Anthropologist, 109(4), 666-677.
→Wiley, A. S. (2015). Re-imagining milk: Cultural and biological perspectives. Routledge.
【 延伸閱讀 】
→臺灣乳牛與飲乳文化:https://bit.ly/36cd5Qc
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journal economic 在 Why submit your next paper to the Review of Economic Studies 的推薦與評價
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Widely recognised as one of the top-five economics journals, The Review has a reputation for publishing path-breaking papers in theoretical ... ... <看更多>
journal economic 在 MARGIN—The Journal of Applied Economic Research - Home 的推薦與評價
A major emphasis is on policy analysis and application of modern quantitative techniques to development issues. The journal is intended at encouraging economic ... ... <看更多>