最近,我在「TIME時代」雜志的專欄文章裡,向全球的讀者介紹了大陸「世界工廠」的+AI自動化升級。隨著勞動力成本的上漲,工業自動化、智慧化勢必是大陸製造業的一劑特效藥。自動化能讓運營成本下降,但仍能讓中國大陸保持生產品質、流程、供應鏈維度的優勢。AI賦能產業升級的願景或許還需多年才能實現,但當下的大陸已經讓未來可期。
以下是專欄文章全文,經TIME授權翻譯轉載:
「中國世界工廠 + AI 的未來」
多年來,中國大陸一直被喻為「世界工廠」,即便在全球其他經濟體紛紛遭遇新冠疫情重擊的2020年,大陸製造產業仍然維持穩健的增長范式,全年產值高達3.854萬億美元,占到全球市場近三分之一。
但如果你腦中的大陸工廠是傳統的「血汗工廠」,是時候修正你的刻板印象了。大陸經濟已經迅速地從疫情衝擊下復蘇,疫情同時催化了各種各樣人工智慧(AI)的應用場景加速實現。自2014年以來,中國大陸的AI專利申請量已經超越美國,至今維持全球領先。在學術領域,中國大陸的AI研究論文發表數量、AI期刊的引用量,也雙雙在近年超過了美國。在產業方面,AI應用在大陸的落地速度超越世界其他國家和地區,具有商業價值的AI應用如今開始百花齊放,整合了軟體、硬體和機器人技術的新一代自動化揭開序曲,AI賦能傳統行業的能量,正在蓄勢待發地重塑各行各業。
人類社會至今經歷了三次不同的工業革命:蒸汽革命、電力革命和資訊革命。我相信,AI將會是推動全球第四次工業革命的核心引擎,在世界各地點燃數位化和自動化的變革,而這波前所未有的硬科技浪潮,將由中國來引領實踐。
由於勞動人口減少和新增人口放緩,中國大陸的傳統產業正面臨著勞動力成本上升的巨大壓力,AI正是解決這個難題的技術解答。人工智慧不僅能夠降低運營成本,提高生產效率,擴大整體產能,還有望能帶來收入的增長。
例如,創新工場投資的廣州極飛科技是一家致力於未來農業的AI科技公司,極飛將無人機、機器人和感測器部署在稻田、麥田和棉花田裡,用技術賦能農業中的播種、農藥噴灑、栽種管理、甚至天氣監測環節。用於作物噴灑的極飛科技R150農業無人車已經被推廣到了英國,應用在蘋果、草莓、黑莓等多種經濟作物的種植流程中。
一些大陸的創新公司正積極把機器人拓展到意想不到的場景。總部位於北京的鎂伽是創新工場投資的生命科學智慧自動化公司,他們和實驗室、製藥公司、高校合作,憑藉AI+機器人技術的積累,用自動化解決方案執行實驗室中勞動密集、重複性高、但需要高度精確的任務和流程,同時機器人作業也將盡最大可能保護實驗室人員降低實驗過程中的感染風險。
除了創業公司,我們看到幾家成熟的龍頭企業也開始積極擁抱AI。創新工場參與了有28年歷史的中力電動叉車,這家頭部的鋰電叉車製造商已經推出了能夠在工廠、倉庫自主運行的無人叉車,並且無需對運行環境進行改造,能快速實現從手動到電動到自動駕駛的搬運賦能創新。此外,擁有50多年歷史的領先客車製造商-宇通集團,與自動駕駛獨角獸企業-文遠知行戰略合作,已在大陸三個城市的馬路上運行全無人駕駛小巴。
接著會發生什麼?我大膽預見,在更長遠的未來,機器人和AI將接管大多數產品的製造、設計、交付甚至營銷——很可能將生產成本降低到和原物料成本相差無幾。未來的機器人有能力自我複製和自我修復,甚至做到部分自我反覆運算設計。房屋和公寓將交由AI主導設計,使用預製建築模塊,交由機器人像搭積木似地築樓蓋房。無人公交、無人摩托等隨傳隨到的自動化未來交通系統,能將我們安全無虞地送達想去的地方。
這些願景成為現實或許還需要多年,但此時的大陸正在積極鋪墊引領新一代自動化革命的基石。可期的是,中國工廠的實力將不僅僅體現在產能上,而將逐步彰顯在智慧上。
本文經「TIME時代」授權進行中文編譯,原文如下:
China Is Still the World's Factory — And It's Designing the Future With AI
BY KAI-FU LEE
For many years now, China has been the world’s factory. Even in 2020, as other economies struggled with the effects of the pandemic, China’s manufacturing output was $3.854 trillion, up from the previous year, accounting for nearly a third of the global market.
But if you are still thinking of China’s factories as sweatshops, it’s probably time to change your perception. The Chinese economic recovery from its short-lived pandemic blip has been boosted by its world-beating adoption of artificial intelligence (AI). After overtaking the U.S. in 2014, China now has a significant lead over the rest of the world in AI patent applications. In academia, China recently surpassed the U.S. in the number of both AI research publications and journal citations. Commercial applications are flourishing: a new wave of automation and AI infusion is crashing across a swath of sectors, combining software, hardware and robotics.
As a society, we have experienced three distinct industrial revolutions: steam power, electricity and information technology. I believe AI is the engine fueling the fourth industrial revolution globally, digitizing and automating everywhere. China is at the forefront in manifesting this unprecedented change.
Chinese traditional industries are confronting rising labor costs thanks to a declining working population and slowing population growth. The answer is AI, which reduces operational costs, enhances efficiency and productivity, and generates revenue growth.
For example, Guangzhou-based agricultural-technology company XAG, a Sinovation Ventures portfolio company, is sending drones, robots and sensors to rice, wheat and cotton fields, automating seeding, pesticide spraying, crop development and weather monitoring. XAG’s R150 autonomous vehicle, which sprays crops, has recently been deployed in the U.K. to be used on apples, strawberries and blackberries.
Some companies are rolling out robots in new and unexpected sectors. MegaRobo, a Beijing-based life-science automation company also backed by Sinovation Ventures, designs AI and robots to safely perform repetitive and precise laboratory work in universities, pharmaceutical companies and more, reducing to zero the infection risk to lab workers.
It’s not just startups; established market leaders are also leaning into AI. EP Equipment, a manufacturer of lithium-powered warehouse forklifts founded in Hangzhou 28 years ago, has with Sinovation Ventures’ backing launched autonomous models that are able to maneuver themselves in factories and on warehouse floors. Additionally Yutong Group, a leading bus manufacturer with over 50 years’ history, already has a driverless Mini Robobus on the streets of three cities in partnership with autonomous vehicle unicorn WeRide.
Where is all this headed? I can foresee a time when robots and AI will take over the manufacturing, design, delivery and even marketing of most goods—potentially reducing costs to a small increment over the cost of materials. Robots will become self-replicating, self-repairing and even partially self-designing. Houses and apartment buildings will be designed by AI and use prefabricated modules that robots put together like toy blocks. And just-in-time autonomous public transportation, from robo-buses to robo-scooters, will take us anywhere we want to go.
It will be years before these visions of the future enter the mainstream. But China is laying the groundwork right now, setting itself up to be a leader not only in how much it manufactures, but also in how intelligently it does it.
Source:https://time.com/6084158/china-ai-factory-future/
the fourth industrial revolution 在 Kai-Fu Lee Facebook 的最佳解答
My latest piece on TIME. If you are still thinking of China’s "world factories" as sweatshops, it’s time to change your perception. China is setting itself up to be a leader not only in how much it manufactures, but also in how intelligently it does it.
https://time.com/6084158/china-ai-factory-future/
the fourth industrial revolution 在 Eric's English Lounge Facebook 的精選貼文
There’s rhythm in writing! 🎶
這個禮拜Presentality的Andrew來分享英文寫作的節奏!
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我的工作需要看非常多的英文。
其中有英文母語的人寫的,也有非母語的人寫的。最近,我注意到一個兩者之間很明顯的差別。這個差別很少有人提到,因為它無關文法正確,也不是有學問的用語,或是文雅的詞彙。
是句子的長短。
Well,更正確的來說,是長句跟短句的交錯。我發現,非母語人士寫的英文句子,不但比英文母語的人寫的長,而且是大部分句子都很長。
母語的人,尤其是很會寫的人,則是會把長句跟短句混合搭配。
那又怎樣?
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你可能會說 ok,以英文為母語的人比較會用短的句子,那又怎樣?句子的長短,跟我寫作的好壞,有關嗎?
關係可大了。
就像音樂,或是影片,文字也是「內容」。只要是「內容」,就有它的節奏。你可以想像一首曲子,從頭到尾都是很長的音,而且一點變化都沒有嗎?或是一部很長的影片,從頭到尾都是很長的畫面,而且一點節奏的變化都沒有嗎?
Well actually,你應該可以想像,這些就是要幫助我們睡眠的。
如果你不想要你的讀者覺得無聊或甚至睡著,我建議適度變換你文字的節奏。
但我們先看案例。
我拿一篇台灣人寫的文,跟另一篇美國人寫的,來做比較:把每個句子都分拆成不同的段落,句子的長短就一目了然了。
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但我們先看案例。
我拿一篇台灣人寫的文,跟另一篇美國人寫的,來做比較:把每個句子都分拆成不同的段落,句子的長短就一目了然了。
📌 台灣案例:Taipei Times Opinion
1. The TAIEX last month rose above 17,000 points as rallies in steel, shipping and some non-tech stocks offset a weakness in semiconductor and electronics stocks.
2. While news about a cluster of local COVID-19 infections connected with China Airlines cargo pilots and a hotel in Taoyuan fueled selling pressure early this month and pushed the local stock market into consolidation mode, the daily market turnover in the first two trading sessions of this month hit fresh highs.
3. Moreover, Taiwan’s stock trading volume last month began to surpass that of Hong Kong for the first time in 15 years, which was beyond most market participants’ expectations.
4. Taiwan’s daily market turnover exceeding Hong Kong’s might gradually become a new normal from this year, and there are good reasons for this.
5. First, Hong Kong’s stock market has lost its appeal to foreign investors since China last year imposed national security legislation on the territory, triggering a potential flight of capital and talent.
6. Second, many wealthy Taiwanese tend to park their overseas funds in Hong Kong, China, Singapore, Switzerland and the US, but government statistics showed that more than 80 percent of funds repatriated by wealthy individuals last year were from Hong Kong, as they saw the political situation in the territory worsen after its self-governance, human rights and freedom of speech were further suppressed.
7. Third, China’s new NASDAQ-style stock board — the Shanghai Stock Exchange’s STAR board — has emerged as a fast-growing capital markets center for Chinese companies at a time when rising China-US tensions have triggered concerns about their prospects of listing in New York, posing a growing challenge to the Hong Kong stock exchange.
8. On the other hand, Taiwan’s economic fundamentals, the central bank’s adoption of extraordinary monetary easing and the government’s fiscal policies have fueled continued rallies in the nation’s stock market since last year.
9. It might be too early to tell how long the consolidation trend might last, as a resurgent COVID-19 outbreak is coloring the global economic outlook, but some insight can be drawn from the stock market:
10. Taiwan’s GDP grew a larger-than-expected 8.16 percent in the first quarter, as exports and private investment remained healthy.
都是一堆很長的句子對不對?我們來看美國人寫的句子,也是一個主流媒體的 opinion 文。
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📌 美國案例:New York Times Opinion
1. I miss torturing Liz Cheney.
2. But it must be said that the petite blonde from Wyoming suddenly seems like a Valkyrie amid halflings.
3. She is willing to sacrifice her leadership post — and risk her political career — to continue calling out Donald Trump’s Big Lie.
4. She has decided that, if the price of her job is being as unctuous to Trump as Kevin McCarthy is, it isn’t worth it, because McCarthy is totally disgracing himself.
5. It has been a dizzying fall for the scion of one of the most powerful political families in the land, a conservative chip off the old block who was once talked about as a comer, someone who could be the first woman president.
6. How naïve I was to think that Republicans would be eager to change the channel after Trump cost them the Senate and the White House and unleashed a mob on them.
7. I thought the Donald would evaporate in a poof of orange smoke, ending a supremely screwed-up period of history.
8. But the loudest mouth is not shutting up.
9. And Republicans continue to listen, clinging to the idea that the dinosaur is the future.
10. “We can’t grow without him,” Lindsey Graham said.
📌 Note: 即使是比較長的句子,這位作者也會用標點符號拆散它:She is willing to sacrifice her leadership post — and risk her political career — to continue calling out Donald Trump’s Big Lie. 這就好比用句點一樣,讓我們讀起來有點停頓休息的時間。
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📌 注意到了嗎?
台灣人寫的英文,句子都偏長,而且長度都差不多。
美國人寫的就不一樣了:一個只有五個字的句子開頭,然後一堆稍微長一點的句子,然後再來一串短句。
你可能懷疑我故意挑選很極端了例子出來,而且幹嘛專門打台灣人呢?
所以想到這裡,我從我的書架上,隨便挑了兩本跟科技有關的書出來。左邊的,是美國人,矽谷知名投資人 Peter Thiel。右邊的是德國人,但注意了,是一個英文非常好的德國人。他不但是世界經濟論壇的創辦人,研究所也是在哈佛大學唸的。
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📌 兩本書 Introduction 是怎麼寫的?
Klaus Schwab (德國):
Of the many diverse and fascinating challenges we face today, the most intense and important is how to understand and shape the new technology revolution, which entails nothing less than a transformation of humankind.
We are at the beginning of a revolution that is fundamentally changing the way we live, work, and relate to one another.
In its scale, scope and complexity, what I consider to be the fourth industrial revolution is unlike anything humankind has experienced before.
Peter Thiel (美國):
Whenever I interview someone for a job, I like to ask this question: "What important truth do very few people agree with you on?"
The question sounds easy because it's straightforward.
Actually, it's very hard to answer.
It's intellectually difficult because the knowledge that everyone is taught in school is by definition agreed upon.
See the difference?
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📌 如何變換節奏呢?
需要Andrew的完整分享請留言「There’s rhythm in writing~」。
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