📍 完整質詢影片|https://youtu.be/5t726FCoQYY
四年2000戶到底做不做得到?都發局應該清楚表態!
過去黃偉哲市長曾經提出四年興建2000戶社會住宅的承諾,今天針對都發局的質詢中,局長稱市長已澄清(四年2000戶的目標是一時口誤,新聞連結:https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/life/breakingnews/2769159),然而許多社群網路及關心社會住宅議題的團體仍是援引四年2000戶做為市府施政參考,倘若市長所稱四年2000戶確實是口誤,請都發局明確做出澄清並將實際的數字公開讓大眾知悉。做不到就是做不到,請給出實質的政策承諾,莫讓市民空期待。
局長今天給的回覆我認為仍然是不夠明確,「今年」的計畫是560戶,之後或許又會「滾動式修正」、又有減少戶數的可能,目前560戶的承諾,數字明顯和中央配給的4500戶目標相差甚遠;包租代管部分截至108年10月4日共媒合322戶,距離中央113年10000戶的目標亦是遙不可及。(資料連結:https://pip.moi.gov.tw/V2/B/SCRB0501.aspx?mode=4)
務實、滾動式修正十分重要,但越滾越少、不斷下修的滾動式修正是何時才可以達標,讓市民的期待真正落實,都發局仍舊需要加緊努力。
包租代管部分我有持續追蹤,物件部分確實有增加且品質也有提升,這點我必須給予肯定,但是整體數量仍舊不足,補助部分也還有許多可以討論的空間,加油啊都發局!
#滾動式不要越滾越少
#也不要越滾越慢
#口誤沒關係但這數量真的太少
同時也有1部Youtube影片,追蹤數超過179的網紅台南市議員林易瑩,也在其Youtube影片中提到,四年2000戶到底做不做得到?都發局應該清楚表態! 過去黃偉哲市長曾經提出四年興建2000戶社會住宅的承諾,今天針對都發局的質詢中,局長稱市長已澄清,然而許多社群網路及關心社會住宅議題的團體仍是援引四年2000戶做為市府施政參考,倘若市長所稱四年2000戶確實是口誤,請都發局明確做出澄清並將實際的...
也不要越滾越慢 在 台南市議員林易瑩 Youtube 的最佳貼文
四年2000戶到底做不做得到?都發局應該清楚表態!
過去黃偉哲市長曾經提出四年興建2000戶社會住宅的承諾,今天針對都發局的質詢中,局長稱市長已澄清,然而許多社群網路及關心社會住宅議題的團體仍是援引四年2000戶做為市府施政參考,倘若市長所稱四年2000戶確實是口誤,請都發局明確做出澄清並將實際的數字公開讓大眾知悉。做不到就是做不到,請給出實質的政策承諾,莫讓市民空期待。
局長今天給的回覆我認為仍然是不夠明確,「今年」的計畫是560戶,之後或許又會「滾動式修正」、又有減少戶數的可能,目前560戶的承諾,數字明顯和中央配給的4500戶目標相差甚遠;包租代管部分截至108年10月4日共媒合322戶,距離中央113年10000戶的目標亦是遙不可及。(資料連結:https://pip.moi.gov.tw/V2/B/SCRB0501.aspx?mode=4)
務實、滾動式修正十分重要,但越滾越少、不斷下修的滾動式修正是何時才可以達標,讓市民的期待真正落實,都發局仍舊需要加緊努力。
包租代管部分我有持續追蹤,物件部分確實有增加且品質也有提升,這點我必須給予肯定,但是整體數量仍舊不足,補助部分也還有許多可以討論的空間,加油啊都發局!
#滾動式不要越滾越少
#也不要越滾越慢
#口誤沒關係但這數量真的太少
#四年2000戶的目標是一時口誤,新聞連結:https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/life/breakingnews/2769159
也不要越滾越慢 在 小錢也能變大錢,從本金50萬滾到350萬,投資越早越好 的推薦與評價
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也不要越滾越慢 在 爆漿水波蛋| 第一次邊煮邊錄,只能用一整個手忙腳亂來形容。想像我 ... 的推薦與評價
這回水太滾了些,開錄就發現了,應該維持在快要滾但還沒滾的狀熊就好,約75~85度C之間。 蛋先打在碗裡,再慢慢倒入滾水裡,越慢越好,越接近水面越好。 接下來就不要去 ... ... <看更多>
也不要越滾越慢 在 [外絮] NBA"遛狗"的歷史- 看板NBA - 批踢踢實業坊 的推薦與評價
來源:https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/35518383/walking-dog-nba-ja-morant
WHAT IS JA MORANT DOING?
It's late October, and the Grizzlies lead the Nets by six with four minutes
left when Memphis forward Santi Aldama softly rolls the inbound pass toward
Morant's feet. As the Grizzlies' star guard makes his way up the court, he
lets the basketball roll alongside him, slowly, slowly, slowly, an inch at a
time, untouched. Morant only needs to maintain a slow walk to keep up as he
scans the court, uncontested by any Nets defender.
The ball rolls another inch, another inch, another inch. Morant is almost at
half court. He keeps letting the ball roll alongside him, knowing the
24-second shot clock won't start until he touches it -- burning precious game
clock at the same time, almost 21 seconds now.
As he crosses half court, Morant finally picks up the ball and glances over
to his bench. His defender, Ben Simmons, suddenly closes on him and lunges at
the ball, looking for a steal -- but he's too late. Morant sees it coming and
protects the ball. Simmons hits him in the arm. Whistle. Foul. That's
Simmons' sixth; he's out of the game.
Ja Morant在幹嘛?
十月底時,灰熊在比賽最後4分鐘時仍領先6分,灰熊前鋒Santi Aldama緩緩地將球傳入場
內到Morant的腳旁。隨著灰熊這名明星後衛往前走時,他讓籃球在他身邊慢慢、慢慢、慢
慢的滾,一吋一吋滾且不碰他。Morant只需繼續向前慢慢走並看著場上,不會被籃網防守
者挑戰。
球又滾了一寸、一寸又一寸。Morant已經快到了中場。他持續讓球在他身邊滾並知道24秒
的錶在他碰球之前都不會動--同時他已經讓珍貴的球賽時間浪費了21秒。
在他跨越半場之後,Morant終於撿起球並看向自家的板凳。他的對位防守者,Ben Simmons
突然箭步衝向了他並想要抄球--但他太晚了。Morant預料到了他的行動並護球。Simmons打
到了Morant的手。響哨。犯規。那是Simmons的第六個犯規,他要出場了。
Thanks in part to that play, Memphis wins by 10. Afterward, Morant explains
that he was baiting Simmons, knowing he'd bite based on past experience.
Clips of the play soon go viral.
So what was Ja Morant doing? Here's what: He was "walking the dog," the fun,
obnoxious, sometimes disrespectful, and -- according to analytics --
game-changing play that is taking over the NBA. The art of rolling the ball
up the court on an inbound has quietly been a part of the game for seven
decades. Now, stars across the league, including Chris Paul, LeBron James,
Marcus Smart and Nikola Jokic, are increasingly using the technique -- to
show up their opponents, to create viral moments and, most importantly, to
win games. The league is on pace to more than double its usage of the move
this year compared to the 2019-20 season.
No one does it as well, or as often, as Morant; he uses the move nearly twice
as much as any of his peers, about once per game. But why? Why is it becoming
so common, and why is Morant so obsessed with it?
This is the secret history -- and the secret value -- of walking the dog in
the NBA.
多虧了這個Play,灰熊以10分之差取勝。賽後,Morant解釋了他正在引誘Simmons,根據過
往的經驗他一定會吃餌。這個片段也在網路上火熱流傳。
所以Ja Morant在幹嘛?這是"遛狗":一個有趣、無禮、有時不尊重且--根據分析--改變球賽
並讓全NBA都在用的動作。這個將球滾動過半場的藝術悄悄的成為這個70年聯盟的一部分。
現在,全聯盟的球星們,包含Chris Paul、LeBron James、Marcus Smart與Nikola Jokic
都在增加使用這個技術--來秀他們的對手、製造廣為流傳的時刻以及最重要的--贏球。這
個聯盟相較於2019-2020賽季,"遛狗"的使用率成長了超過一倍。
沒人遛狗遛得比Morant更多、更好;他使用這個招式的次數是他所有同事的兩倍,大約每場
一次。但為甚麼?為甚麼遛狗變得如此常見?為甚麼Morant如此沉迷他?
這是NBA遛狗的秘密歷史--以及他的神祕價值。
https://streamable.com/ycupam
Ja Morant遛狗造成Simmons犯滿的影片
BILL RUSSELL HAD A problem. One of the most dominant centers in NBA history
wanted as much time as possible to operate in the post, where he worked as
the primary conduit for Boston's offense. So on inbound plays, Celtics
backcourt mates K.C. Jones and Sam Jones would let the basketball roll past
half court, especially when the Celtics played from behind -- saving time on
the shot clock, which in turn freed up time to feed the ball to Russell.
"They were way ahead of the times," says Jim Barnett, a forward who played on
the Celtics in 1966-67 and went on to become a TV analyst. "They got maybe an
extra four, five seconds in the backcourt before they touched the ball, and
then they had a little extra time to operate."
In the same era, Warriors guard Guy Rodgers used the same approach for
another legend: Wilt Chamberlain. Through the late 60s and into the early
70s, Hall of Famers Lenny Wilkens and Mo Cheeks carried the dog-walking
torch. The logic was simple: In the NBA, the 24-second shot clock begins when
a player touches the basketball after the previous possession. That's true
even when the game clock continues to run, such as following a made basket.
(The exceptions: the final minute of the first three quarters and the final
two minutes of the fourth and OT.) A few extra seconds can make a huge
difference in scraping value out of a possession or preserving a chance at a
late comeback.
Bill Russell造成了這個問題。這名NBA歷史上最具有統治力的中鋒之一想要在低位有越多
時間越好,這也是他在波士頓參與最多進攻的地方。所以在球傳入場內時,賽爾提克後衛
KC Jones與Sam Jones會讓球滾過半場,尤其是賽爾提克落後的時候--節省進攻時間來讓可
以餵球給Russell的時間更多。
1966-67年賽爾提克前鋒、現任TV分析師Jim Barnett說:「他們領先了時代。他們在後場碰
到球以前賺到了4、5秒,所以他們有更多時間去執行戰術。」
同樣的時代,勇士後衛Guy Rodgers也為了另一個傳奇Wilt Chamberlain使用了同樣的伎倆
。在60年代晚期至70年代早期,名人堂球員Lenny Wilkens與Mo Cheeks承接了遛狗的火炬
。這邏輯很簡單:在NBA,進攻24秒在球員碰到球以前都不會啟動。甚至是在比賽時間還在
走的時候依然如此,像是對方剛進球之後(唯一的例外是:前三節的最後一分鐘及第四節
與延長賽的最後2分鐘)。額外的數秒鐘可以對球權價值最大化以及保留逆轉機會造成巨大
的影響。
"Three seconds might not seem like a lot," says Mike Breen, the legendary NBA
broadcaster. "But at the end of a game on a final possession, if a team has
four seconds as opposed to one second to get off a shot to win or tie a game?
That's enormous."
In the late 70s and 80s, the dog-walking thread mostly dies. Teams like Magic
Johnson's "Showtime" Lakers loved to race the ball up the floor after made
shots, and walking the dog went against their DNA. Even those teams that
played a slower style didn't utilize the tactic much; some footage appears to
show Charles Barkley walking the dog before bullying his way inside for a
bucket, but other examples are hard to come by.
In the 1990s, the tactic became more prevalent again. A few of the league's
savvier guards used it from time to time, including Muggsy Bogues, Tim
Hardaway and Mark Jackson, for the same reason their predecessors did.
"[There] could be all sorts of scenarios where you'd want to do it, but the
main objective of it is taking advantage of the shot clock," Bogues says.
NBA傳奇轉播員Mike Breen說:「3秒鐘可能看起來不多,但在比賽結束前的最後一個球權,
一隊擁有1秒鐘還是4秒鐘來贏得或是追平比賽?那就非常巨大了。"
70年代後期與80年代,遛狗行為幾乎消失。許多球隊如Magic Johnson的Showtime湖人更喜
歡在對方投進後快速將球傳入場內。遛狗不在他們的基因之中。即使是那些打得比較慢的
球隊也少有執行這個戰術。有些片段顯示Charles Barkley在他霸凌對手得分前遛狗,但除
此之外的例子很少。
90年代時,這個戰術又開始流行。數名聯盟中較為聰明的後衛一直使用,其中包含了
Muggsy Bogues、Tim Hardaway與Mark Jackson,原因也與他們的前輩相同。Bogues說:「
有些情況下你就只是想做,但大部分的主要目標都是要在進攻時間上佔便宜。」
In the new millennium, Chris Paul and Rajon Rondo have defined walking the
dog in the minds of many fans. Paul is among the league leaders in total dog
walks for every season in which tracking data is available (the 2016-17
season to present). Paul says he never used the move in high school or
college, but in the NBA, he's adopted it to secure 2-for-1 opportunities.
"It's a game that we play, right?" he says. "A game, like any card game you
would play, or checkers."
There's no definitive account of who coined the term, but "walking the dog"
joined the NBA's lexicon around the time Paul and Rondo became known for
using the move.
When Paul became a Rocket in 2017, in the Daryl Morey and Mike D'Antoni era,
the guard's attention to detail dovetailed with the league's most
analytics-friendly organization. The Rockets had flashcards showing the math
behind 2-for-1s: If they took a shot with 30 seconds left in a quarter, they
would get two of the three final shots. As a simple example, two 35% shots
create a far higher expected point value than one 50% shot. Walking the dog
is a simple way to facilitate this.
Now, Paul stays alert to make sure his opponents don't use this against him.
"If we score with 36-37 seconds left, I always yell to my teammates, 'Pick
up! Don't let somebody try to do that,'" he says. "If we make them use at
least 12 seconds of the clock, we get the last shot of the quarter."
在千禧年之後,Chris Paul與Rajon Rondo在許多球迷的眼裡定義了"遛狗"。Paul在有追蹤
的數據之後(16-17球季)皆是聯盟遛狗次數最多的球員之一。Paul說他在高中或是大學從來
沒使用過這個招數,但在NBA他需要為了2 for 1機會做出改變。他說:「這是我們的博弈,
對吧?一個博弈,如同任何你會玩的卡牌遊戲或是下的棋。」
沒有人知道是誰發明的這個名詞,但"遛狗"這個詞在Paul與Rondo因為這個動作有名之後便
加入了NBA的辭典。
當Paul於2017年加入Morey與D'Antoni時代的火箭之後,這名後衛對於細節的重視與對分析
科學最友善的球團相輔相成。火箭有對於2 for 1機會數學的小抄--如果他們在該節剩下30
秒時投籃,他們將會得到最後三次出手機會中的2次。一個簡單的例子,2次35%命中率的投
籃期望值將會比1次50%命中率的出手高。
現在,Paul確保他的對手不會對他們使用這招。Paul說:「當我們在剩下36-37秒時得分,
我都會對我的隊友大吼'打起精神!別讓任何人做這件事'如果我們讓他們用掉至少12秒鐘
,我們將會得到最後一次出手。」
But walking the dog isn't used in today's NBA just to maximize the shot
clock. It's also now used to burn time on the game clock when protecting a
lead. The first known example of this strategy came in the 2016-17 season:
Sacramento Kings guard Ty Lawson burned over 20 seconds with under three
minutes remaining while nursing a lead over the Nuggets. The tactic has
recently exploded, and Paul, for one, appreciates his younger peers who walk
the dog to waste the game clock -- and he gets a kick out of those who don't
understand them.
"It's funny, Trae [Young] was doing it against the Knicks in the playoffs a
couple of years ago," Paul says. "I'll never forget watching the game, and
one of the commentators was talking so bad about it. It was like, 'Why is
Trae letting the ball roll? This is so dumb. They're winning, why's he doing
this?' And I was thinking to myself, Trae's not the one at fault. It's the
other team not coming up to guard him."
The tactic came to an extreme head in a late October game between the Nuggets
and Celtics. With about five minutes left, Denver forward Aaron Gordon
slammed a two-handed dunk to pull the Nuggets within 13. As Gordon jogged
back on defense, Al Horford rolled the ball to Jayson Tatum so slowly that it
completely stopped before his own free throw line. As Tatum stood alongside
the ball, Horford and Grant Williams guarded him like linemen blocking for a
running back. Nuggets coaches called for Gordon to force Tatum to pick the
ball up. Gordon barreled through Williams so hard that he was called for a
flagrant. Williams missed his two free throws, but the foul call crushed the
Nuggets' momentum, and the Celtics won easily.
不過,現在的NBA遛狗不只是用來最大化使用進攻時間而已。遛狗現在也被用來在領先時將
剩餘的時間消耗殆盡。目前所知第一個例子是在16-17年時,沙加緬度國王後衛Ty Lawson
在比賽剩下不到3分鐘時浪費對手金塊隊超過20秒來保護他們的領先。這個戰術最近有了爆
炸性的成長。Chris Paul也欣賞新生代球員們遛狗來消耗比賽時間的行為--並駁斥了那些
不理解的人們。
Paul說:「這很好笑。Trae Young幾年前在季後賽隊尼克時就有這麼做。我永遠不會忘記那
場比賽。一名球評不斷地在批評。他說了啥'為啥Trae一直讓球滾?超蠢的。他們正在領先
,他在幹嘛?'然後我自己就開始思考,Trae不是做錯的人,不上來守他的對手才是。」
這個戰術在10月底金塊賽爾提克的比賽達到了極端。在剩下5分鐘時,金塊前鋒Aaron
Gordon雙手灌籃讓金塊的落後僅剩下13分。在Gordon慢跑回去防守時,Al Horford滾給
Jayson Tatum的球超級慢以至於那顆球在賽爾提克自家的罰球線之前就完全停下了。在
Tatum站在那個球旁邊時,Horford與Grant Williams如同攻防線球員保護跑鋒一般保護著
Tatum。Gordon為了搶球衝撞了Williams而得到了一個惡意犯規。Williams雖然兩罰盡墨,
但這個犯規完全破壞了金塊的氣勢且讓賽爾提克輕鬆贏下這場比賽。
https://streamable.com/29q1p4
In the past three seasons, per data provided to ESPN by NBA Advanced Stats,
players are walking the dog more than ever in these types of crunch-time
situations -- when leading by 3-15 points in the fourth quarter. We tracked
these by looking at dog walks lasting over five seconds after made baskets.
In 2020-21, teams walked the dog 54 times, wasting more than 7 minutes of
game time. Last season, that jumped to 91 plays, wasting over 12 minutes. In
just over half of a season, this year's figures already blow those out of the
water. Teams have walked the dog 164 times, wasting over 23 minutes. The
numbers are just as staggering when you account for all four quarters, with a
total of 668 dog walks this year alone.
"It's just a smart play to waste time," says Grizzlies forward Dillon Brooks.
"Guys don't really understand it."
過去3季以來,根據NBA提供給ESPN的數據,球員在第四節領先3-15分時刻遛狗的頻率比
過去任何時期都高。我們追蹤了這些在對手得分後超過5秒鐘的遛狗。在20-21球季,NBA球
隊遛了54次,浪費了超過7分鐘的比賽時間,而這數字上一季一舉躍升至91次,浪費了超過
12分鐘。在這季僅僅過了一半,這數字已經讓過去完全看不到車尾燈。22-23賽季,NBA球隊
已經在這狀況遛了高達164次,浪費了超過23分鐘。如果這數字擴大至整個
第四節,今年就已經有高達668次的遛狗。
灰熊隊前鋒Dillon Brooks說:「浪費時間是聰明的行為,他們只是不理解。」
==============================================================================
INSIDE THE GRIZZLIES' ARENA, players are prepping for the first leg of a
back-to-back against the San Antonio Spurs in November. Morant, the team's
dog-walker-in-chief, is sitting out due to thigh soreness, so Tyus Jones is
getting the start at point guard.
Jones, and most of his teammates, say Morant put his team on to walking the
dog regularly. The Grizzlies have walked the dog 34 times this season in
crunch-time scenarios, wasting 5 minutes and 10 seconds of game clock. Trae
Young's Hawks held the previous record, with 18 late-game walks over a full
season, wasting 2 minutes and 21 seconds of game clock in 2021-22.
11月在灰熊主場,球員正在為了他們背靠背第一場打聖安東尼奧馬刺的比賽準備。Morant
這名球隊的遛狗大隊長,因為大腿痠痛只能作壁上觀所以Tyus Jones要打先發控球的位置
。
Jones與他大部分的隊友說Morant讓他的隊伍經常一起遛狗。灰熊這季已經在第四節領先3
-15分的的情況下已經遛狗高達34次,浪費了5分鐘又10秒的比賽時間。Trae Young的老鷹
是原本的紀錄,他們在21-22賽季也不過在這個情況下"只"遛了18次並浪費了2分21秒。
Two years ago, Morant became a regular dog walker in his sophomore season and
quickly got his team to buy in. He's utilized the move 41 times across all
quarters and has been the ball handler on 23 of those 34 plays in crunch
time, wasting over three minutes of game clock. In just over half this
season, Morant has wasted more time walking the dog than any team had in an
entire year and holds three of the longest dog walks recorded in the NBA this
season (his teammate Desmond Bane has one of the others).
"If you're winning, it's kind of a loophole in the rules," Jones says.
The Grizzlies don't discuss this in practice or plan these plays in advance.
Morant often motions to his inbounder to roll the ball in slowly in these
situations right as they materialize, especially when leading late in a game.
The guy will do anything to shave a few seconds off. He'll leap out of the
way instead of catching the ball if the inbounder throws it too hard in his
direction. If Morant finds himself inbounding, he'll play dumb and misplace
the ball as the game clock keeps running.
2年前,Morant在他的二年級生賽季成為遛狗的常客且他的隊伍也立刻買單。他在所有的節
數中總共遛了41次且在那34次遛狗中擔綱了23次的持球者,浪費了超過3分鐘的比賽時間。
在這半季,Morant遛狗浪費的時間比NBA任何一支球隊本季浪費的時間還多且創造了本季最
長的遛狗中的3次(他隊友Desmond Bane則另有其中的一次)。
Jones說:「如果你在領先,這是一個規則漏洞。」
灰熊隊並沒有在練習中提前演練或策劃這些戰術。Morant經常叫他的傳球者在那些他們勝
券在握--尤其是領先比賽的後期--將球滾入場內。這傢伙會會為了將把這幾秒浪費掉做任
何事。如果傳球者傳太用力他甚至會跳起來躲球而非接住球。如果Morant發現自己要負責
傳球,他會打的很白癡並亂放球來浪費比賽時間。
How has Morant become so good at walking the dog? He declined to speak with
ESPN for this story, but his teammates think it boils down to his speed and
athleticism. Opponents are hesitant to really press him 75-plus feet from
their own hoop. If they make a mistake, he could have a huge runway with a
numbers advantage. Others think it's more a combination of fatigue and a
never-ending game of chicken.
"I think [opponents] are probably a little tired," Jones says. "They're like,
'Damn, I don't really want to run back up the court to make them pick the
ball up,' or they don't know that [Ja will] really let the clock keep going.
They think, eventually, he's going to pick the ball up, and let's play ball.
But Ja will really let the clock go until you make him pick the ball up."
Morant是如何變成遛狗大師的呢?他拒絕與ESPN透露這個消息,但他的隊友認為這跟他的
速度與體能有關。對手對於要離開他們的籃框75尺以上去壓迫Morant相當猶豫。如果他們
犯錯,他就可以跑開並創造多打少的局面。其他則認為是疲勞與膽小鬼賽局的結合。
Jones說:「我認為對手可能有點累。他們就像'可惡,我真的不想衝回場上拿球'或他們不
知道Ja真的會讓時間這樣繼續走下去。他們認為,他最終都是得將球拿起來的,讓我們打
球。但Ja真的會在他們來搶球前讓時間一直走。」
https://streamable.com/dhlfoy
Ja Morant遛狗但對手都不敢動
The Celtics, often spurred by Marcus Smart, are on pace to smash prior
records for time wasted via walking the dog (though they'll finish well
behind the Grizzlies). Then come the Nuggets, led by Nikola Jokic, who often
directs things as the inbounder rather than the ball handler. Meanwhile,
Young, who set the previous player record for the most dog walks in a single
season (59), will likely be on the top-five leaderboard again this season.
The trend may seem a bit silly, but it's impacting the outcome of games. When
Morant wasted those 20-plus seconds in that October win over Brooklyn before
drawing Simmons' sixth foul, the time loss alone added 1.4% win probability
for Memphis, per research by Patrick McFarlane that utilized NBA Advanced
Stats data. The Grizzlies' win probability while leading by six with 4:21
remaining (the end of the prior possession) was 86.3%; with 4 minutes
remaining after Morant's time-burn, that percentage rose to 87.7% -- and
that's without even factoring in the subsequent sixth foul on a top opposing
defender.
By comparison, a player who grabs a rebound (either offensive or defensive)
during a non-clutch period of a given game is adding about 1.7% win
probability by doing so. A player who makes a single free-throw is typically
adding around 0.5% win probability; this season alone, there have already
been 40 fourth-quarter dog walks that earned the utilizing team at least 0.5%
of additional win equity.
Of course, there are downsides to the tactic, too.
常常由Marcus Smart控球的賽爾提克也在打破遛狗時間紀錄的節奏上(當然還是會輸給灰熊
)。接下來是Nikola Jokic領軍的金塊,不過他更常作為傳球者而非持球者來引導遛狗。同
時,Young,這名前單季最多遛狗的紀錄保持人(59)也將會在這個榜單上維持在前5名。
這個趨勢可能看起來有點滑稽,不過他正在衝擊球賽的結果。當Morant在10月浪費超過20
秒的比賽時間並造成Simmons的第6次犯規以前,Patrick McFarlane運用NBA進階數據做出
的研究得知光是浪費的時間就增加了灰熊1.4%的勝率。當灰熊於4:21秒領先(前一個球權結
束),他們的勝率為86.3%;但在Morant浪費了20秒鐘在後球賽僅剩下4分鐘時,灰熊的勝率提
升至了87.7%--這還沒有計入他造成對位防守者第6次犯規所造成的影響。
根據比較,如果一名球員在普通時刻抓下了一顆籃板(無論進攻還是防守)會增加1.7%的勝
率。如果一名球員罰進一球通常會增加0.5%左右的勝率。而光是這季,已經有超過40次的
"遛狗"讓他們的球隊增加了超過0.5%的勝率。
當然,這戰術也是有缺點的。
TRAE YOUNG WALKS SLOWLY alongside the ball in late November. His Hawks are up
three against the Rockets with six minutes left in the game. He burns nearly
18 seconds off the game clock -- the longest he's walked the dog this season.
But the next five and a half minutes go poorly for Atlanta. Young goes
0-for-3 from the floor, Houston's Jalen Green explodes late in the fourth and
the Hawks lose the game, 128-122. Atlanta could have used those wasted
seconds in the game's final moments. This is one of the key risks of walking
the dog when the game is on the line.
"I think there's always a trade-off," says Jeff Van Gundy, the broadcaster
and former coach. "You are able to run some time off the clock. The
counterpoint would be: At what expense to your rhythm and your flow? It's not
as simple a decision as just trying to take time off the clock, because it
could actually hurt you."
Trae Young在11月末跟著球慢慢走。他的老鷹隊在最後6分鐘時仍領先火箭3分。他浪費了
比賽時間高達18秒--這是他本季新高。
但在接下來的5分半鐘對老鷹來說所有事情都朝著糟糕的方向走。Young繳出0-3的投籃,且
休士頓的Jalen Green在第四節末爆發並讓老鷹以122-128輸掉了這場比賽。老鷹原本可以將
那浪費掉的18秒用在關鍵時刻的。這是在比賽還有希望時遛狗的其中一個關鍵風險。
賽評也是前教練的Jeff Van Gundy說:「我認為這永遠是個交換。你能浪費一些時間,但反
過來說:你要花費多少節奏與你的感覺?這並不是只有浪費掉時間那麼簡單,因為這事實上
也會傷害到你。」
The most embarrassing risk? Turning the ball over. Kyrie Irving, D'Angelo
Russell and John Wall have all fallen victim to a well-timed lunge from
defenders or an errant bounce off their own foot.
Skeptics, like Van Gundy, question the value of walking the dog. Others just
think it's downright boring to watch. Some have called for a rule change to
eliminate the loophole by stopping the game clock after made baskets in the
fourth quarter -- a rule that FIBA has adopted.
The NBA declined to make an official statement for this story. However,
multiple league sources say there are no plans to alter any clock rules in
the fourth quarter or otherwise. There's a simple explanation, too: This
isn't some black box of a strategy. It's really easy to stop! Savvy teams
like the Spurs, Pelicans and Wizards are already on top of it, and send a
defender to the backcourt to prevent ball handlers from walking the dog.
這其中最令人尷尬的風險呢?失誤。Kyrie Irving,D'Angelo Russell與John Wall都有過
被防守者算準時機抄走或是錯誤地彈到腳上的經驗。
如同Van Gundy一樣的質疑者,懷疑著"遛狗"的價值。其他則只是認為這很無聊。有些人甚
至希望聯盟修改規則讓整個第四節的比賽時間在進球後都會停止來填起這個漏洞--這也是
FIBA先前所修改的規則。
NBA拒絕對這個相關的報導做出正式的聲明。無論如何,多個聯盟內先說聯盟目前沒有針對
這個情況對第四節規則做出修改的計畫。這裡有個簡單的解釋:這不是甚麼黑箱的策略。這
很簡單就可以阻止了!聰明的隊伍如馬刺、鵜鶘與巫師早就克服了--他們直接派一個防守者
到對方後場就阻止了對方遛狗。
"If you thought it was hurting you as a coach, you'd just put somebody on the
ball," Van Gundy says. "You increase your pickup point and then retreat,
obviously. It's not like it's something that if you thought it was hurting
you, it couldn't be overcome."
In the end, this new use of one of basketball's oldest moves highlights the
intelligence and ingenuity of the game's best players.
"The entire basis is to win," Mike Breen says. "Whether you do it by
physically overwhelming a team with talent [or] you can get a victory by just
outthinking a team and beating them at the mental game. That's what makes the
game so great, it's not just a physical game, it's also a mental game."
Van Gundy說:「如果你認為身為一個教練這個戰術對你造成傷害,你就派個人去盯球就好
了。你增加了你的盯防點然後就撤退,當然。這不是甚麼無法克服的戰術。」
最後,這個古老技倆的全新用法展現了這運動中頂尖球員的智商與創意。
Mike Breen說:「這所有的基礎都在於要贏球。無論你是用你的體能天分壓制住對手或是用
智慧贏過敵隊並在心理戰中獲勝,這些都讓比賽變得有趣,這並非是只有體能的比賽,在
心理戰中獲勝也是很重要的。」
心得:
原本覺得這篇文章很有趣就翻了
結果沒想到那麼長...
這個戰術與比賽細節影響的程度絕對比大家想像中的還要大(雖然也讓比賽有一點點無聊就
是了...)
以後請稱Ja Morant為
「遛狗之王」
(笑)
--
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